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Long-term expectations for the Global Market Index (GMI) remained steady at a 7%-plus pace for the annualized total return outlook, based on data analytics through December. The forecast has been relatively stable at this level recently, rising fractionally over last month's estimate.
@CharlesSchwab's Collin Martin explains moves in the bond market following headlines surrounding Venezuela and a contractionary ISM manufacturing print. He calls the ISM number "disappointing," but calls Wednesday's upcoming ISM services number more important.
Investors still need to be selective when playing the choppy software sector, but analysts see compelling opportunity in some high-profile stocks and under-the-radar plays.
The Institute for Supply Management said that its purchasing managers index of manufacturing activity fell to 47.9 in the month, compared with 48.2 in November.
U.S. stocks delivered exceptional returns in the 2020s but are now historically expensive, raising concerns of a potential market correction. Bonds have underperformed this decade, with 2022 marking the worst annual loss ever and recent years showing real, inflation-adjusted losses.
CNBC's Rick Santelli reports on the latest economic data to cross the tape.
US factory activity hit a 14-month low in December as the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index edged down to 47.9 from 48.2, according to data released Monday. The measure has been below 50, which indicates contraction, for 10 straight months.
AI stocks could be hit if OpenAI can't sustain its growth—but Pivotal Research says these two technology companies would still be good bets.
A closely-watched index that measures U.S. manufacturing activity fell to 47.9% in December, according to the Institute for Supply Management on Monday. Any number below 50% signals contraction.
The biggest surprise of 2026, so far, is not a tech breakthrough or a shift in interest rates—it is the sudden, explosive revival of the oil sector following the U.S. military capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
US stocks opened the week on a firm footing, brushing aside geopolitical shock after Washington's strike on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. The S&P 500 rose about 0.6% on the day.
U.S. stocks traded higher this morning, with the Dow Jones index gaining more than 250 points on Monday.
A financial “security” is nothing more than a claim on some stream of cash flows that investors expect to be delivered into their hands in the future. From our simple example, it's already clear that the long-term return one can expect is determined by the price one pays relative to the future cash flows the security can be expected to deliver over time.
U.S. military action capturing Maduro is likely to trigger short-term market turbulence, but I expect disruption to be brief and present potential buying opportunities. Oil services companies like SLB and HAL could benefit from Venezuela's need to overhaul its crumbling oil infrastructure post-regime change.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said AI is causing big companies to slow hiring. Many businesses are seeing "real productivity gains" because of the technology, Kashkari said.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC on Monday that he thinks the central bank is close to the point where it should stop lowering interest rates. "My guess is we're pretty close to neutral right now," Kashkari said.
As Americans usher in 2026, they are met with a one-two punch of economic inflation and escalating geopolitical tensions.
The US labor market has weakened since March 2025, and it's likely to continue weakening based on the policies-in-place, causing a recession in 2026. The December labor market report is expected to show a positive job creation, possibly due to holiday hiring, with a downtick in the unemployment rate.
The U.S. energy transition has often been slowed not by technology or investment, but by infrastructure that can't keep pace. Take SunZia, a 550-mile transmission line meant to carry New Mexico wind power to Arizona and California.
The U.S.-led regime change in Venezuela sets up a "reconstruction trade" favoring U.S. energy companies and the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF. Chevron stands to benefit immediately due to its entrenched operations and special license, while Exxon Mobil gains from reduced geopolitical risk.