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Operator: Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Grupo Televisa's Third Quarter 2025 Conference Call. Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to the press release, which explains the use of forward-looking statements and applies to everything discussed in today's call and in the earnings release. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Alfonso de Angoitia, Co-Chief Executive Officer of Grupo Televisa. Please go ahead. Alfonso de Angoitia Noriega: Thank you, Elsa. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With me today are Francisco Valim, CEO of Cable and Sky and Carlos Phillips, CFO of Grupo Televisa. Before discussing our third quarter operating and financial performance, let me share with you what we believe are the key milestones achieved this year, both at Grupo Televisa and TelevisaUnivision. At Grupo Televisa, let me touch on 4 major achievements. First, our strategy to focus on attracting and retaining value customers in cable has allowed us to grow our Internet subscriber base in the first 9 months of the year compared to the end of 2024. Second, we keep executing on implementation of OpEx efficiencies and the integration between Izzi and Sky to extract further synergies. This has already contributed to expanding our consolidated operating segment income margin by 100 basis points in the first 9 months of the year to 38.2% driven by year-on-year OpEx reduction of around 7%. Third, we continue to keep a disciplined CapEx deployment approach to focus on free cash flow generation. So far this year, we have invested MXN 7.5 billion in CapEx, which is equivalent to 16.8% of sales. In the fourth quarter, CapEx deployment should remain at similar levels to those of the third quarter. Still, our CapEx budget of $600 million for 2025 implies a reasonable CapEx to sales ratio of less than 20% for the full year. We have been able to achieve this mainly because we have had successful negotiations with suppliers, resulting in more favorable terms. And fourth, during the first 9 months of the year, we have generated around MXN 4.2 billion in free cash flow, allowing us to prepay a bank loan due in 2026 with a principal amount of around MXN 2.7 billion. This debt repayment comes on top of the $220 million principal amount of our senior notes already paid on March 18. Additionally, at the end of the third quarter, Grupo Televisa's leverage ratio of 2.1x EBITDA compared to 2.5x at the end of last year, mainly driven by our free cash flow generation. And at TelevisaUnivision, I will mention 3 key milestones. First, engagement and growth for ViX remains solid with strong momentum across both our free and premium tiers. Moreover, the Gold Cup semifinals and final and the compelling entertainment in sports slate that included the third season of La casa de los famosos, Mexico and our broadcast of Liga MX and the NFL helped drive a high single-digit increase in MAUs and robust demand for advertisers and ViX. Second, the efficiency plan to reduce operating expenses at TelevisaUnivision by over $400 million in 2025 is delivering outstanding results. In the first 9 months of the year, our total operating expenses have declined by around 12% year-on-year for total savings of around $300 million. This shows a disciplined execution of our cost savings initiatives, including lower content, technology and marketing costs and the normalization of our DTC related investments. And third, looking at TelevisaUnivision's leverage and debt profile, the company ended the quarter at 5.5x EBITDA an improvement from 5.9x in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by growth. Moreover, so far this year, TelevisaUnivision successfully refinanced $2.3 billion of debt. As discussed in our second quarter earnings conference call, the company successfully issued $1.5 billion of new 2032 senior secured notes and refinanced over $760 million of term loan A now due in 2030. In addition, more recently, TelevisaUnivision extended its $500 million revolving credit facility and its $400 million accounts receivable facility. These transactions strengthened TelevisaUnivision's balance sheet, enhanced its liquidity and extended its maturity profile with its nearest maturity now almost 3 years away. Deleveraging remains a core strategic priority for TelevisaUnivision and management remains committed to further strengthening the capital structure of the company over the coming quarters. Having said that, let me turn the call over to Valim as he will discuss the operating and financial performance of our consolidated assets. Francisco Valim Filho: Thank you, Alfonso. Good morning, everyone. As Alfonso mentioned, we had an excellent quarter in this third quarter. First, let me walk you through the operating and financial performance of our cable operations. We ended September with a network of almost 20 million homes after passing around 20,000 new homes during the quarter. Our monthly churn rate has remained below our historical average of 2% for 2 consecutive quarters as we continue to execute our strategy to focus on value customers while working on customers' retention and satisfaction. Our broadband gross adds continues to improve on a sequential basis, allowing us to deliver 22,000 net adds during the third quarter compared to net adds of around 6,000 in the second quarter and disconnections of about 6,000 in the first quarter. In video, we also experienced a strong gross adds than in the first 2 quarters of the year and managed to reduce churn. Therefore, we lost about 43,000 video subscribers during the third quarter compared to 53,000 cancellations in the second quarter and 73,000 disconnections in the first quarter of the year. Moreover, we expect the improving trends to continue going forward, influenced by our recently announced multiyear partnership with Formula 1 to provide live coverage of all Grand Prix via Sky Sports channels available through Izzi and Sky. Beginning in the fourth quarter of this year until 2028 season, Formula 1 is the one of the fastest-growing and most passionate sports events in Mexico and around the world, and we definitely see this as a competitive advantage relative to our peers. Moving to mobile. Our net adds of 94,000 subscribers during the quarter continued to gain momentum, beating the 83,000 net adds of the second quarter and doubling those of the first quarter. Our innovative MVNO service developed by ZTE, offering enhanced user experience is already making our bundles more competitive and allowing us to increase our share of wallet from our existing customers. During the quarter, net revenues from our residential operations of MXN 10.6 billion, which accounted for around 91% of total cable revenue decreased by only 0.7% year-on-year. This marked the best quarter of the last 2 years at our residential operations from the revenue growth performance standpoint and compares well to a decline of 3% in the first half of the year. On a sequential basis, net revenue from our residential operations grew by 0.4%, potentially signaling an ongoing gradual recovery. During the quarter, revenue from our enterprise operations of MXN 1.1 billion, which accounted for around 9% of our cable revenue increased by 7.7% year-on-year. This also marks the best quarter of the last 3 years of our enterprise operations from a revenue growth performance standpoint and compares favorably to growth of 3% in the second quarter and a decline of 4.5% in the first quarter of this year. Moving on to Sky's operating and financial performance. During the third quarter, we lost 329,000 revenue-generating units, mostly coming from prepaid subscribers that have not been recharging their services. In addition, beginning in the second quarter, we started to charge an installation fee of MXN 1,250 to all satellite pay TV subscribers to increase the return on investment for this service. This translated into a slowdown of video gross additions for Sky that has been steady over the last 2 quarters. Sky's second quarter revenue of MXN 3.1 billion declined by 18.2% year-on-year mainly driven by a lower subscriber base. To sum up, segment revenue of MXN 14.7 billion fell by 4.4% year-on-year, while operating segment income of MXN 5.7 billion declined by only 0.7%, making it the best quarter of the year as we appear to be very close to reaching operating segment income stabilization. Our operating segment income margin of 38.5% extended by 140 basis points year-on-year, mainly driven by the efficiency measures that we have been implementing and synergies from the ongoing integration between Izzi and Sky. Regarding CapEx deployment, our total investment of MXN 3.6 billion account for 24.3% of sales during the third quarter. This shows a material sequential increase in CapEx deployment, but it is in line with our updated CapEx budget for 2025 of $600 million. Finally, operating cash flow for Cable and Sky, which is equivalent to EBITDA minus CapEx was MXN 2.1 billion in the third quarter, representing 14.2% of sales. Alfonso de Angoitia Noriega: Thank you, Valim, best quarter of the year indeed. Now let me take you through TelevisaUnivision's third quarter results. The company's third quarter revenue of $1.3 billion declined by 3% year-on-year, while adjusted EBITDA of $460 million increased by 9%. Excluding political advertising, revenue fell by 1% year-on-year, marking a sequential improvement compared to both the first and second quarters of this year. On the other hand, also excluding political advertising, adjusted EBITDA increased by 13% year-on-year, underscoring the scalability of a profitable DTC business and the sustained impact of cost reductions initiatives launched at the end of last year. Moving on to the details of our revenue performance. During the quarter, consolidated advertising revenue decreased by 6% year-on-year or 3% excluding political advertising expenditure. In the U.S., advertising revenue was 11% lower as growth in ViX continued to partially offset linear declines. Within ViX, the Gold Cup, semifinals and finals helped drive a high single-digit increase in MAUs and robust demand from advertisers. In Mexico, advertising revenue increased by 3% year-on-year, primarily driven by private and public sector ad sales that powered ARPU growth for ViX. Results this quarter benefited from a compelling entertainment and sports slate that including the performance of the third season of La casa de los famosos Mexico, dramas such as Monteverde and Amanecer and our broadcast of Liga MX and the NFL. During the quarter, consolidated subscription and licensing revenue increased by 3% year-on-year, driven by ViX's premium tier and higher content licensing revenue. In the U.S., subscription and licensing revenue grew by 11%, supported by ViX and results included a mid-single-digit increase in linear subscription revenue and higher content licensing revenue due to timing of content delivery. In Mexico, subscription and licensing revenue fell by 17%. Excluding the impact of the renewal cycle, subscription and licensing revenue in Mexico grew by 5% driven by ViX. To wrap up, Bernardo and I remain confident that our focus on value customers, efficiencies and ongoing integration between Izzi and Sky at Grupo Televisa and further integration and operational optimization at the TelevisaUnivision now that our DTC business has gained scale and achieved profitability will allow us to create greater value for our shareholders throughout this year. Now we are ready to take your questions. Operator, could you please provide instructions for the Q&A. Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Marcelo dos Santos with JPMorgan. Marcelo Santos: The first question is if you could comment a bit the CapEx outlook for 2026. How do you see this trending? And the second question is regarding the insurance claim you received. Was that related to Hurricane Otis? And is there something left to be received? Alfonso de Angoitia Noriega: Thank you, Marcelo. I'll ask Valim to answer both questions. Francisco Valim Filho: We gave -- Marcelo, we gave a guidance of around $600 million, and we should be within that range. Regarding the insurance claim, I think that's the last portion of the claim on the Otis Acapulco situation. So we shouldn't be seeing anything more from that event. Marcelo Santos: Valim, just one question. The CapEx for 2026, so for next year you're... Francisco Valim Filho: 2026, no 2026 is so far away, Marcelo. No, no, no. Alfonso de Angoitia Noriega: Let's finish 2025, then we can talk about '26. Operator: Our next question comes from Matthew Harrigan with Benchmark. Matthew Harrigan: You've actually reached a point in the U.S. when you look at the entire TV industry, there's more consumption on streaming than on linear. And I know your linear is much more durable than your English language peers. But you've got tremendous local programming positions, particularly in news and some of the largest U.S. EMAs. Are you really taking a lot of our -- hopefully, eventually almost all the news content on local stations and the distinctive content on the local stations and moving that to ViX over time because it feels like it would be a shame to lose the local identity. You have those stations because eventually, linear is going to fall off even for Hispanic audiences. And then secondly, clearly, a very dynamic situation in the U.S. and Mexico right now. Are you doing anything more on the BC side in relation to advertising for investments? And also, I can't help but ask, what's your general perspective on the U.S. and the imaginations with the administration on the tariff side and the prospects for near-shoring and everything going on. I know this is kind of ridiculously open-ended question. But just any thoughts on the stability of the economic relationship with the U.S. Alfonso de Angoitia Noriega: Yes. Thank you, Matthew, for your questions. I think, as to your first one, local news is very important for us. We are very strong in the local places where we produce news and local programming. We are exploring the possibility of including that in our streaming platform. We haven't yet included all of that content, but we're exploring that. The good thing is that, as I was saying, the local content is very strong. So very popular. As to your second question, we have made media for equity deals with great companies with great startups. We have assembled a great portfolio, I would say, and more companies are coming to us as they realize the importance of our platforms. And this is because of the strength of our platforms, we can position and grow their products and especially their brands when they're launching. Companies like Kavak, like Rappi, have become our ambassadors. At the beginning, we had doubts about the strength of linear television and most specifically in Mexico. But now they have become ambassadors of ours. We will continue to do these deals as we generate value with unsold inventory. And these companies become regular clients. So it's basically a funnel for these start-ups to grow, to position their brands, to position their products. And we take equity, which is great at very good valuations, and then they become regular clients and this is basically unsold inventory. So we're very happy with the portfolio we have been able to put together, and we'll continue to do this. As to your last question, I think that the Mexican government President, Sheinbaum has done an extraordinary job in dealing with the negotiations, the trade negotiations. I think that Mexico and the U.S. are key partners. If you look at the border region, it's one of the largest economies in the world by itself. The border, the legal border crossings that happened every day are in the millions. So I mean it's an integrated region. It's an integrated economy. So I believe that eventually, we'll be able to get to the right deal for Mexico and for the U.S. Operator: Our next question comes from Alex Azar with GBM. Alejandro Azar Wabi: Few ones on competition, Valim, on cable. If you can share a little bit of color on short-term and medium-term dynamics, especially when seeing how competitors are adding 1 million, 1.5 million net adds per year. It seems that in 2, 3 years, the market is going to be fully penetrated. So that would be my first question. And the second one is on Sky. With the levels of net disconnections you have year after year, how should we think about the EBITDA contribution in the next couple of years from Sky? Alfonso de Angoitia Noriega: Thank you, Alex. Valim? Francisco Valim Filho: Thank you, Alfonso. Well, I agree 100% with you. With this amount of net adds on a yearly basis, the market is very close to being fully penetrated. That's why our strategy is not going after volume because we know that we will be fighting for prices at the lower end of the pyramid. So our aim is to focus on the higher-end clients. That's why we have -- we are the only company in Mexico increasing ARPU consistently across the board. So I think that's the focus. So we think there's obviously a diminishing returns of this fight for the volumes of subscribers. And that's why our strategy moved away from that, and we have been successful in doing that. Regarding Sky, Alex, the way I see Sky is very straightforward. This is a business that will eventually disappear. Why? The penetration of the fiber networks and the amount of OTTs and the availability of a linear TV through cable and fiber operators is something that will obviously position Sky to only subscribers that are outside of those covered areas. So it will by definition then keep on declining. So how we perceive it, we perceive it as a cash flow from existing subscribers minus the programming cost, minus the technological cost of the satellite and all that is involved in that and then it generates a positive cash flow. That's the business and it has been generating positive cash flow and for the foreseeable future, we'll see positive contribution from Sky as a cash flow perspective. Obviously, it has this negative optics on our revenue, but just the way we see it is we've kind of segregate that from everything else and see that as an inflow of cash flow and everything else is more a stable growing businesses. Alfonso de Angoitia Noriega: Yes. And to add to your first question, to add on what Valim was saying, in Mexico, we have a 4-player market, but it's a pretty rational market, except for Telmex, which has kept its entry price unchanged for, I guess, more than 10 years, while also increasing Internet speeds and offering Netflix now for 3 -- for 6 months. They don't seem to be really interested in the profitability of Telmex as they extract value from the lease of fiber owned by other subsidiaries of theirs. And the other Megacable raised prices by around MXN 30 per month from the beginning of the year. So there, you can see that the industry is raising prices, except for Telmex. Totalplay also announced price hikes from April particularly from broadband customers that are heavy data users. So even though it's a 4-player market, it's a rational market and if you look at the prices and ARPU, we feel comfortable, and we feel confident that this will remain like that. Alejandro Azar Wabi: If I can just add a follow-up on Sky remarks. When you say Sky probably will disappear. I'm just thinking that there must be some part of the population that where fiber is not around, and they -- if Sky becomes the only thing that they can use, especially for video. Do you guys have an approximate of that? I don't know. Alfonso de Angoitia Noriega: No, you're absolutely right. I mean there are rural areas where a satellite provider makes sense. I don't know. Francisco Valim Filho: No, I don't think they will disappear per se. It's obviously a diminishing volume like we have been seeing and we'll keep on seeing. But just to give an example, in Central America, we have close to 100,000 subscribers basically flat because in those areas, there are less competitors offering a fiber network or a cable network. And it is very stable. And like Mexico, where we are all deploying network and expanding our infrastructure. So yes, I don't think it will disappear, not just there will be a day that will be just shut down. I think it will still have -- and I think there are just several hundred thousand people living in areas where there's no other option for entertainment and Sky will keep on being a solution. But that's why we don't see this as a -- I understand some people see this as a problem. We actually see this as an upside given the fact that we're generating positive cash flow. Alfonso de Angoitia Noriega: Yes. I think Valim is absolutely right. We see Sky as a cash flow. And the more we extend, we prolong the life of the subscribers, it's going to be an amazing driver for our cash flow. Operator: Our next question comes from Ernesto Gonzalez with Morgan Stanley. Ernesto Gonzalez: Look, I know it's early but going back to the discussion on broadband penetration in Mexico. Do you have any -- or can you share any expectations for cable growth rates next -- sorry, next year? Do you believe that you can accelerate growth for the unit. And the second question is on the sustainability of margins for Cable Sky but also TelevisaUnivision. They were strong in the third quarter. So I wanted to get a sense of how much more room they have to grow going forward. Francisco Valim Filho: Well, I think that -- back to your point Ernesto, I think that it's key to understand that obviously, as penetrations go higher, the level of net adds will diminish for every player in the market. And you have already saw that. As you see quarter after quarter after quarter, we already see a diminishing number of net adds being added to the different players. So that's a diminishing return in other countries like Brazil, for example, where the penetration is significantly higher even than Mexico. You see there's this dynamic as well and companies find ways by selling more products to the same existing customers to keep revenues growing but obviously, you're not going to be seeing high double-digit numbers because of the dynamic of the market. So like Alfonso just said, this is a very rational market. Nobody is flashing, prep is down. The promotions are very reasonable. And everybody is actually making money in this market like our cash flow generation that we have just presented. This is significantly -- is very significant. So I think that's a dynamic in mature market that you'll see. And what happens is you add more products, better products, more speeds and that's how you keep on increasing ARPU. And that's why we think the strategy of going after the high-end customers, they have more disposable income available as opposed to the other end of the pyramid. And I think regarding margins of cable... Alfonso de Angoitia Noriega: No. I think he asked about TU... Francisco Valim Filho: No, no, no. The answer is not over. Alfonso de Angoitia Noriega: Okay. Go ahead. Francisco Valim Filho: So the idea here is we think that we keep on improving margins. This is an ongoing, never stopping exercise that will go internally. And we find that through many different ways, mostly through technology. Obviously, we still are collecting a few synergies from Sky mostly through technology and improvement in how we provide services and processes. So there is an ongoing effort to increase margins. I'm talking about cable. Alfonso de Angoitia Noriega: Yes. Yes. And about -- I mean, TU amazing margins. I think that was a result of the cost cutting and all that we did in terms of costs and expenses in the fourth quarter of last year, which are being reflected in this year. We believe that we have the highest margins in the industry. And that has to do with that cost cutting, $415 million. And also, it has to do with owning the largest library of content in Spanish in the world, more than 300,000 hours of content. It also has to do with the very efficient way in which we produce content, especially in our studios in Mexico. And that allows us to have these amazing margins. So I think those margins in the mid-30s are sustainable. Operator: This concludes our question and answer session. I Would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Alfonso de Noriega for any closing remarks. Alfonso de Angoitia Noriega: Well, thank you very much for participating in our call. And if you have any questions, please give us a call. Have a great weekend. Operator: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator: Hello, and welcome to the HCA Healthcare Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Vice President of Investor Relations, Mr. Frank Morgan. Please go ahead, sir. Frank Morgan: Good morning, and welcome to everyone on today's call. With me this morning is our CEO, Sam Hazen; and CFO, Mike Marks. Sam and Mike will provide some prepared remarks, and then we'll take questions. Before I turn the call over to Sam, let me remind everyone that should today's call contain any forward-looking statements, they're based on management's current expectations. Numerous risks, uncertainties and other factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those that might be expressed today. More information on forward-looking statements and these factors are listed in today's press release and in our various SEC filings. On this morning's call, we will reference measures such as adjusted EBITDA, which is a non-GAAP financial measure. A table providing supplemental information on adjusted EBITDA and reconciling net income attributable to HCA Healthcare, Inc. is included in today's release. This morning's call is being recorded, and a replay of the call is available later today. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Sam. Samuel Hazen: All right. Good morning and thank you for joining the call. As reflected in our earnings release for the third quarter, the company produced strong results when compared to last year with 42% growth in diluted earnings per share as adjusted. Revenue increased by 9.6%, which was driven by broad-based volume growth, improved payer mix, more utilization of complex services and additional revenue from Medicaid supplemental programs. We also translated this revenue growth into better margins with disciplined operations. As a result, you will see in this morning's release that we raised our guidance for the year to reflect this performance and our outlook for the fourth quarter. Our teams continue to execute our agenda at a high level across many operational measures, including quality and key stakeholder satisfaction. Outcomes were better year-over-year. I want to thank our 300,000 HCA colleagues who once again demonstrated excellence in what they do. As a team, we remain disciplined in our efforts to improve care for our patients by increasing access, investing in advanced digital tools and training our people. These investments allow us to enhance capacity, improve service offerings and gain efficiency. Making it easier for our -- for us to provide better services to our patients, physicians and the communities we serve. Typically, on our third-quarter earnings call, we provide some preliminary perspectives on the upcoming year. Before I get to these, I want to comment on the enhanced premium tax credits. We continue to advocate strongly for the extension of this program for the 24 million Americans who depend on it for health insurance coverage. Today, we believe there is greater recognition by legislators of the negative impact this issue will have on families, small businesses and individuals than earlier in the year. At this point, however, we still do not know how this policy will play out. Because of the fluid nature of the federal policy environment, we will limit our early thoughts for 2026 to our views on demand and the cost environment. We continue to see solid demand across our markets for health care services and believe volumes will be within our long-term 2% to 3% growth range. As it pertains to operating costs, we expect mostly stable trends consistent with the past couple of years. As usual, there are some pressures in certain areas, but we believe our resiliency plan should provide some relief. It is important to note that we are still early in next year's planning process, and these preliminary views may change before our fourth quarter's earnings call when we will provide you with our guidance for 2026. So let me close with this. As we work to complete another successful year for HCA Healthcare, we believe the company is well-positioned to sustain high levels of performance in the years to come. Organizationally, we have strengthened enterprise capabilities to execute at a higher level through our previously restructured management team and improved management systems. Competitively, our networks have enhanced service offerings for patients with more outpatient facilities, greater inpatient capacity and improved operations. And financially, because of the increased cash flow and stronger balance sheet, we have the resources to invest more in our strategic agenda. With that, I will turn the call over to Mike for more information on the quarter and our updated guidance. Mike Marks: Thank you, Sam, and good morning. The company produced solid results during the third quarter. The demand for health care services was strong in the third quarter with same facility equivalent admissions increasing 2.4% over the prior year. Our surgical volume growth also improved with the same-facility inpatient surgical volume of 1.4% and outpatient surgical volume up 1.1% in the third quarter over the prior year. Same facility ER visits increased 1.3% in the quarter over the prior year. Commercial and Medicare ER visits combined increased 4.1% in the third quarter of 2025 to prior year, whereas Medicaid and self-pay ER visits were both down to prior year. We have also seen a slow start to the respiratory season in 2025, which is impacting the year-over-year growth rate in our admissions and ER visits by an estimated 50 and 70 basis points, respectively. Our net revenue per equivalent admission growth in the quarter reflected strong payer mix, improved dispute resolution results, consistent case mix index and increased Medicaid state supplemental payment revenues. Regarding payer mix during the quarter, same-facility total commercial equivalent admissions increased 3.7% over prior year, with exchanges growing 8% and commercial, excluding exchanges, growing 2.4%. Medicare increased 3.4%, Medicaid increased 1.4% and self-pay declined 6%. Regarding Medicaid supplemental payment programs, as we've said in the past, these programs are complex, variable in timing and do not fully cover our cost to treat Medicaid patients. Considering these programs in isolation, the revenue growth from these programs drove about half of the overall increase in net revenue per equivalent admission in the third quarter compared to the prior year. And we saw an approximate $240 million increase in net benefit to adjusted EBITDA from these programs in the third quarter of 2025 over the prior year. This increase was largely driven by Tennessee program payments and the approvals of grandfathered applications in Kansas and Texas. We were pleased with our operating leverage and expense management in the quarter. The improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin was driven primarily by good performance in labor and supplies. As expected, we did see contract labor expenses flat in the prior year. Same-facility contract labor was basically flat in third quarter of 2025 to the prior year and represented 4.2% of total labor costs in the third quarter of 2025. The increase in other operating expenses as a percentage of revenue in the quarter was driven primarily by increased expenses related to Medicaid state supplemental payments and to a lesser extent, professional fees compared to the prior year. Our work progressed to both enhance and accelerate our resiliency program as we prepare for the future. Through these efforts, we continue to identify a robust set of opportunities across revenue and cost to improve efficiencies. The growth in our adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter reflects our strong operating performance and the increase in supplemental payments. We would also note the estimated $50 million impact from the hurricanes in the third quarter of 2024. Moving to capital allocation. We continue to execute our strategy of allocating capital for long-term value creation. Cash flow from operations was $4.4 billion in the quarter with $1.3 billion in capital expenditures, $2.5 billion in share repurchases and $166 million in dividends. Year-to-date, we've been able to defer approximately $1.3 billion in federal income tax payments to the fourth quarter due to the IRS providing relief to Tennessee taxpayers in the aftermath of severe weather in early April. Our debt to adjusted EBITDA leverage remained in the lower half of our stated guidance range, and we believe our balance sheet is strong and well-positioned for the future. So with that, let me speak to our 2025 guidance. As noted in our release this morning, we are updating the full year guidance as follows: we expect revenues to range between $75 billion and $76.5 billion. We expect net income attributable to HCA Healthcare to range between $6.50 billion and $6.72 billion. We expect adjusted EBITDA to range between $15.25 billion and $15.65 billion. We expect diluted earnings per share to range between $27 and $28. We expect capital spending to be approximately $5 billion. We now anticipate our supplemental payment full year net benefit to be $250 million to $350 million favorable comparing full-year 2025 versus 2024. This guidance update does not include any potential impact in 2025 from any additional approvals of grandfathered applications under the Act. And at the midpoint, this guidance assumes a $120 million decline in net benefit from Medicaid state supplemental payments in fourth quarter of 2025 versus the prior year due to onetime payments in the year. Consistent with our comments on the second quarter call, we believe our hurricane-impacted markets will produce approximately $100 million in adjusted EBITDA growth in full-year 2025 over 2024. Year-to-date, adjusted EBITDA in our hurricane markets is modestly below prior year, and we are anticipating all of this growth will occur in the fourth quarter. We are increasing our earnings guidance at the midpoint of adjusted EBITDA by $450 million. This represents an expected $250 million increase in net benefit from the state supplemental payment programs and $200 million increase from operational performance. With that, I will turn the call over to Frank for questions. Frank Morgan: Thank you, Mike. [Operator Instructions] [ Priela ], you may now give instructions to those who would like to ask a question. Operator: [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Ann Hynes with Mizuho Securities. Ann Hynes: Great. And thanks for all the detail on the DPP programs. Can you remind us -- I know there's other states that have preprints in for approval for grandfather programs. Can you remind us what states are still pending? And any quantification of what could be incremental would be great. Mike Marks: So as you think about kind of the states, there are several that have applied under the grandfathering programs, we've mentioned Florida before and certainly, that one is under review. There are a few others as well. I might mention Georgia and Virginia as well being in that list. We do not expect that CMS will be approving these additional grandfathering programs during the shutdown. I would say that we have reports that indicate though that the reviews between CMS and these states are active and those reviews continue during the shutdown. I might also mention that we were encouraged, coming up to the shutdown, that several states had approvals coming into the shutdown. So I think we're in a pretty good environment. We are, at this point, not going to size those potential applications until they get approved. But I did note in my comments, and I'll note again that the updated guidance that we gave you just now on this call does not include any potential impact from the applications that are still pending review with CMS. Operator: And your next question comes from the line of A.J. Rice with Credit Suisse. Albert J. Rice: Just to maybe ask on the public exchanges. So there's been some chatter and some of the managed care companies are talking about anticipating a potential step-up in volumes in the fourth quarter, elective procedures, because people are worried that they're going to lose coverage or their co-pays and deductibles will go up dramatically. I wonder if you're seeing an early scheduling for surgeries, for example, elective surgeries or anything else that would indicate that we might see that in the fourth quarter. And then if we do get disruption where people go off during the traditional open enrollment period, but then reset -- are able to reset because after open enrollment, special enrollment period is set up, would you be able -- if people show up in your emergency room, are you basically set up so you could get them re-signed up if that's a possibility under the special enrollment? Provisions if we get an extension, but it comes late. Mike Marks: So if you think about EPTCs and what happens with these exchanges, I would mention a couple of things. I mean, right now, we're really not sizing the potential impact given the fact that it's so fluid. There's going to be an enrollment period, as you know, that opens up here in a couple of weeks. When we get to the fourth quarter call, A.J., we'll have a lot more information. First about what is the deal potentially that comes out of this work in the government? Do they get extended? If they do get extended, what is the form of that extension? And then third, to your point, is timing. Do they -- do we end up with a special enrollment period at the end -- and so it's really difficult to size the potential impact of that until we get a little bit closer to the fourth quarter call, and that's when we'll intend to do that. We do have our financial counseling teams through our Parallon revenue cycle that helps our patients, both with things like Medicaid and with exchanges. It's the idea of them being able to do that on-site is not something that we can do, but we certainly can connect them to the appropriate resources to help them navigate that. And I think we've mentioned this in previous calls. We have structured our efforts here as we've gone through the balance of this year into next year to really beef up our resources with Parallon and broadly as a company to help patients navigate coverage, both on Medicaid and on the exchanges. And we feel really good about our preparation in that area, and we're going to try to help our patients navigate this season is very best that we can. Operator: And your next question comes from the line of Pito Chickering with Deutsche Bank. Pito Chickering: The quarter was a pretty strong beat even if we exclude the supplemental payments in the 3Q, but guidance didn't go up a whole lot past the beat you guys did this quarter, at least at the midpoint of the range. Can you give us any color on how we should think about the range of guidance implied on the fourth quarter, if we just steer towards one or the other? And also, if you can help provide a bridge from 3Q into 4Q as we think about the moving parts between hurricanes and supplemental payments. Mike Marks: When I think about fourth quarter growth rate, there's really 2 main considerations that I would think about and then the third being just operations. But the first would be the hurricane impact for sure. And then the second would be the decline in state supplemental payments that I noted in my comments when you compare fourth quarter of '25 to prior year. When we take those 2 factors into consideration, we believe the implied growth rate is still solid for fourth quarter in the kind of high single digits range, maybe 7% roughly. And then the other note I would give you, when you take those same considerations into account, our sequential growth from third quarter to fourth quarter is in line with our past trends. And so we feel that our guidance for fourth quarter is solid. I might also just note that our range in our guidance is intended to really cover a range of outcomes and including at the higher end of the range, even stronger performance as well. So that's how we're viewing the fourth quarter. Operator: And your next question comes from the line of Ben Hendrix with RBC Capital Markets. Benjamin Hendrix: Just a quick follow-up on the SDP guidance. How much in there did you recognize in the fourth -- or in the third quarter and is included in guidance for Tennessee specifically? And did you include -- recognize anything in the quarter and in guidance related to Texas? I know that got approved later in the quarter. I just want to see if you're including anything in there. Mike Marks: Thanks, Ben. So Tennessee was the largest driver of our net benefit in third quarter. We did receive cash in the third quarter of 2025, and we began accruing this program. So that's the update on Tennessee. Texas, as you know, we did receive approval of the grandfathered application. As this approval was really an enhancement to an existing program, this was really accrued just in our normal manner for third quarter of 2025. I might note being, though, that this grandfathered application really only had 1 month of impact for third quarter. The third one that we mentioned on call is Kansas, where we also received approval of the grandfathered application, we received caps for this program in third quarter of 2025 as well. This is a calendar year program, so 9 months of impact recorded in third quarter of '25. And Ben, let me just mention, like always with these programs, we always talk about that they're complex and variable. There were another number of pluses and minuses that you see across our portfolio of programs. So these 3 states with those pluses and minuses of all the other programs really led to the aggregate of the $240 million net benefit. It's always important to keep that in mind. Operator: And your next question comes from the line of Brian Tanquilut with Jefferies. Brian Tanquilut: Congrats on the quarter. Mike, I appreciate you highlighting how you guys have done really well with expense management, labor and supplies. So just curious, as I think of supplies cost, you guys have done a great job over the last few years keeping that fairly steady. At what point do those contracts reset? And then maybe the follow-up question for me on cost too is, as we think about your efforts to mitigate Medicaid cuts from '28 forward, when do we start seeing those efforts come through the P&L? I mean I'm guessing a lot of that -- those initiatives will start way before '28. Mike Marks: On supplies, Brian, we have a robust ongoing effort with supplies that we've communicated multiple times in the past. I mean, certainly, to HealthTrust, a lot of effort in flight on our contract renewal cycles. We tend to run 2-year cycles, some contracts as many as 3. And so those renewals flow as follows. And we spend a lot of effort in those contract negotiations, and that's certainly one component of our supply expense annual trends. The second component would be mix of technology. And so as you're aware, every year, there's new technology coming in. And then there's management of technologies that goes through its maturation cycle that's a big part of our overall management routines. The third part of our resiliency plan is our efforts to manage utilization. And so we have a very active resiliency plan. Supplies is one of those areas that we are continuing to both enhance and accelerate our resiliency plans focused on appropriate management of supplies and the utilization of supplies throughout the platform. As I think about bridging into the future, the other component that we're keeping a close watch on our tariffs, where our HealthTrust team continues to work through a very diligent effort to manage the tariff risk. Both in terms of sourcing, the way that we negotiate with contracts, our vendor partners on contracts and then also in terms of moving products and moving choices of products across countries of origins. So a lot of work in flight with supplies that I think you've seen not only help us manage supplies over the last several years, but we believe will continue to give us a very strong platform moving forward and our ability to manage supplies. You asked about resiliency. And really, we've had a long-standing resiliency effort in the company. As we've noted on the last couple of calls and noted again today, our work to both enhance and accelerate our resiliency plans continue as we prepare for the future. These are widespread across both our corporate platforms and our field platforms. really proud of the entire team at HCA, helping us to find additional opportunities to drive efficiencies. We're doing this through benchmarking. We're doing this through a robust focus on digital tools. Sam talks often about digital transformation, and it certainly applies to our resiliency and efficiency efforts. It's a big part of what we're doing. And then third, we're focused on our shared service platforms and the strength that they give us and the ability to expand their influence across the company is helpful as we continue to move forward. So a lot of good work going on with resiliency. And as we get into our fourth quarter call, we will intend to provide additional comments about our resiliency effort when we give 2026 full year guidance as well. Samuel Hazen: And Mike, let me add to resiliency. I mean we think about resiliency holistically. There -- it's clearly a financial resiliency culture within HCA that Mike's alluded to, and it's not event-driven. It's really a part of our culture. It's embedded within the disciplined thinking, the disciplined resource allocation and the disciplined execution. But holistically, we also think about other aspects of resiliency across the organization. First is what we call organizational resiliency, and I alluded to this in the fact that we had restructured. We're now embarking upon a more aggressive effort to develop our people, enhance the capabilities of our C-suites across our facilities and so forth, prepare for succession planning, all these things that go into having a very durable organization. And we have great people in HCA. We want to make them greater through our development programs. And we've asked our human resources department to invest even more in ramping up capabilities there. The second aspect of resiliency that's beyond financial, it's something I'll call network resiliency. Our organization within sort of the marketplace is also advancing resiliency with respect to adding more outpatient facilities, improving throughput within our facilities, investing in very targeted ways to improve our overall competitive positioning and then just operating at an even more excellent level when it comes to quality, engagement, efficiency, patient satisfaction, all these important fundamentals that help us endure through whatever cycles we have. And so our resiliency agenda is broad. It's across these 3 dimensions, and it puts us in a very strong position, we believe, to navigate tailwinds, push through headwinds, compete on the ground and produce solid outcomes. And we've got a pattern of doing that, and we're enhancing that now with technology. We're enhancing it with new capabilities within our shared service platform, as Mike alluded to, and we're further enhancing it with development of our people. Operator: And your next question comes from the line of Whit Mayo with Leerink Partners. Benjamin Mayo: I was wondering how you guys are thinking about capital deployment for next year. Obviously, you have the capacity to increase buybacks or the dividend or whatnot. But I know you evaluate every year. So I just wanted to take your temperature on preliminary thoughts. And then I think what I mean is like where do you think you will be spending differently versus prior years? Samuel Hazen: So, this is Sam. We're not ready to give you our financial plan for 2026 yet. I think it's a reasonable assumption to assume that our plan is going to be somewhat consistent with the methodologies we've used in the past. And so we need to get through the planning process that we're in now, see how some of the federal policies land. And from there, we will refine and define our capital allocation plan for 2026. But just as much as the culture of HCA is around resiliency and cost discipline and so forth, we have the same culture around capital allocation and finding the most productive ways to allocate it to benefit our networks and benefit our patients, but also benefit our shareholders. And that thinking will permeate our plan in 2026, just as it's done this year and in past years. Operator: And your next question comes from the line of Justin Lake with Wolfe Research. Justin Lake: A couple of things here. First, I think you mentioned payment dispute resolution is one of the drivers of revenue growth, pricing growth in the quarter. How much of a benefit there? And then another question on DPP. It sounds like your DPP number for 2025 benefit will be somewhere in the -- if I'm right, the $2.3 billion, $2.4 billion range billion this year. Is that the right number? And before any of these additional state approvals come through, what's the right run rate that we should think about going into 2026 when we normalize for stuff that might have been out of period? Mike Marks: So let me walk through NRA real quick, and then we'll talk a little bit about supplementals. When I think about our net revenue per equivalent admission growth, in the third quarter to prior year, first thing, and I mentioned this in them comments, Justin, but the first thing is about half of the growth was related to state supplemental payment increases in revenue. And so that's a piece. I also mentioned and it's the next biggest driver is payer mix. I mean, as we noted, with very strong payer mix in the quarter, and that's the next biggest driver for sure in our overall growth in net revenue per unit. Case mix index was pretty consistent. It was just up a tick, about 30 basis points to prior year. And then we're -- as we've noted in past calls, we continue to work on our dispute resolution activities, and they did provide some support in the quarter. And so those combined really drove the net revenue per unit growth I think on -- as I think about for the year and the state supplemental payments at this point, just keep in mind that we noted that we expect -- and part of what drove the earnings guidance is the net benefit from state supplemental payment programs, we're going to be about $250 million better for the quarter. And so you would just apply that now if you just think about kind of the walk up on state supplemental payment programs and you apply that to our full-year guidance, I think that gives you a sense that now we're expecting it to be $250 million to $350 million, favorable full-year '25 to full-year '24. And that gives you a sense of our kind of our early thinking as we kind of finish guidance right here, this is where we think the year will come in at this point. I did note, and there's a lot of volatility here, that guidance update does not include any additional impact from any other state supplemental payment programs that may get approved by CMS in 2025 once the government reopens. So just keep that in mind as well. Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Mok with Barclays. Andrew Mok: Last quarter, you called out a few underperforming regions outside the hurricane markets. Can you give us an update on those markets and how addressable those issues are near term? Samuel Hazen: So we did mention that we had 2 of our 16 geographic divisions that had some challenges in the second quarter. One of those, I'm happy to say, has recovered. But within our portfolio, we're fortunate that we have a very diversified geographical base and a very diversified service base. And we've seen, again, very strong portfolio performance across the company in the third quarter. So one of the divisions recovered. The second one is still working its way through some of the challenges, and we're confident that we'll be where we need to be as we push into 2026. I think an important point here is the third quarter over the second quarter is always a challenging period. You got summer dynamics with vacations, physician movement during the summer months and so forth. And in this particular third quarter, we performed sequentially really well. And our core operations were managed very effectively from a cost standpoint. We saw a good mix of volume from the second quarter to the third quarter. So that's an encouraging seasonality aspect to this particular year versus some of the other years that we've seen. And I'm really proud of our teams and how they push through that. And again, with a large portfolio, you always have movements inside of it. But for the most part, none of them are material in and of themselves individually because we have other divisions that are outperforming our expectations and tend to provide cover for those that may have a struggle in the short term or what have you. Operator: And your next question comes from the line of Matthew Gillmor with KeyBanc. Matthew Gillmor: I thought I might ask about the growth in surgeries. There was a little bit of an improvement this quarter versus last quarter. Sam just mentioned some of the seasonal dynamics. Can you give us a sense for some of the service lines that are maybe doing a little bit better? Just anything to highlight there? Samuel Hazen: Well, when we look at our outpatient surgery, we had strong general surgery activity. Our urological service line was very strong on the outpatient side. On the inpatient side, our neurosciences surgical capabilities, our orthopedic surgical capabilities, cardiac, all of these were up and had very good performance on a year-over-year basis. So again, diversification is a powerful element for us. diversification amongst these service lines, different mills use for delivering care to our patients, all of it sort of works as a system to create again the enterprise performance that we're able to produce. But those are some of the categories that moved favorably. We had a couple that weren't as positive. Again, that's par for the course from one quarter to the other and not really indicative of anything structural. Our gynecology business on an outpatient in the third quarter was slightly down. So that's one item that was down, but it was covered by some of these other areas. And then within the inpatient side, our neurosurgery business was down modestly, and that impacted the inpatient business, but it was overcome by some of these other areas. Mike Marks: Matthew, I might also mention on outpatient surgery, that payer mix continues to be solid. Actually, Medicaid and self-pay volumes continue to be below prior year, which obviously implies that our commercial and Medicare business continues to be really strong. So we're seeing that in really good growth in overall net revenue in outpatient surgery and the translation to earnings. Samuel Hazen: One of the things we talked about at our investor conference back in November of '23 was what I term the staying power of HCA Healthcare. And that staying power is really connected to 3 points. One, the relevance of our systems within the communities that they serve. The second thing is the scale across the company when it comes to just the sheer size of HCA Healthcare. The third aspect to that is the diversification. And so you're hearing about how the diversification provides what I call staying power for our organization, allowing us to push forward with our agenda, produce solid returns on our capital and create better outcomes for our stakeholders. Operator: And your next question comes from the line of Scott Fidel with Goldman Sachs. Scott Fidel: I was hoping if you could maybe drill a bit more into the Medicare volumes in the quarter and break those down for us between Medicare Advantage and then fee-for-service, year-over-year and sequentially? And then just observations on case mix or acuity that you're seeing in the volume trends within those 2 categories of Medicare. Mike Marks: So Medicare Advantage was up 4.8% in the quarter over prior year. And then I think look what was traditional over there. [indiscernible] 90 bps, yes. Traditional was up 90 bps. Case Mix Index, the traditional Medicare case mix index was actually up a bit and Medicare Advantage was pretty flat to prior year. So those would be the 2 components of Medicare in the quarter. I think one of the things that we noted, and I'll go kind of more of a macro statement here is the improvement in our volume trends in third quarter to prior year versus second quarter to prior year. We saw that in Medicare. Medicare combined was up 3.4% on adjusted admissions. Medicaid was up 1.4% after being down for several quarters. And then as we noted, we saw good movement in our overall commercial business as well with self-pay being down 6%. So overall, really good operational growth, good demand growth across our payer categories, really with the one exception of being self-pay. Operator: And your next question comes from the line of Ryan Langston with TD Cowen. Ryan Langston: We've heard a lot of news on the pickup of hospital usage in AI, particularly in revenue cycle. Can you give us a sense on how your initiatives there are progressing and how much runway you see with the advances of technology in the future? Mike Marks: So you're right. I mean there's been a lot of commentary around this idea of utilization intensity and maybe coding intensity and the like. And I think it's important to note, we can't speak to all of the dynamics that the payers see across their various geographies and line of insurance. We've already noted from a pure volume perspective, what we're seeing volume-wise. I do think that both Medicare Advantage, the exchanges, you are seeing pretty good volumes this year, at least from HCA, and that's really the extent that we can speak to. As it relates to coding intensity, we think about that as case mix index. And from a case mix index perspective, it's pretty consistent with prior year and with trends. I think it was up 30 basis points in third quarter of '25 versus third quarter of '24 and actually down a little bit sequentially from second quarter. As we look at the individual lines of insurance, whether it's Medicare Advantage, Medicaid, exchanges and commercial, we're really not seeing any material changes in case mix index compared to the prior year at the detailed line level as well. It's always important to note, our coding practices remain consistent and accurate as verified by multiple layers of audits. Specifically related to AI, we do -- as Sam mentioned, we're deep into our efforts around digital transformation across our company, including in our revenue cycle. Our focus in terms of AI automation and our revenue cycle right now is really specifically focused on working to respond to the growing denial and underpayment activities from the payers. We have noted before, we are also both piloting and rolling out ambient AI documentation tools designed to help our physicians be more complete, more accurate and more timely in completing their clinical documentation. So that's a quick update of what we're seeing in the utilization space. Operator: And your next question comes from the line of Raj Kumar with Stephens Inc. Raj Kumar: Just kind of maybe focusing on the expense side and pro fees. Just maybe kind of any color on how that trended year-over-year? And as a sense, if we kind of bridge towards '26 and think about Valesco and how that's historically been a drag of $40 million to $50 million in the past for EBITDA on a quarterly basis, kind of how do you expect that to trend in 4Q and 2026? And what kind of opportunity is still there to maybe potentially achieve breakeven in '26? Mike Marks: So our same-facility professional fees increased 11% over the prior year in third quarter '25 versus third quarter '24. I'll note it's about a 1% sequential increase to second quarter of 2025. So professional fees continue to run hotter than just average inflationary levels across the rest of -- if you think about our cost structure, I might note that this is a bit more related to anesthesia and radiology this year. And so that's a bit of an update on pro fees. Professional fees on an as-reported basis still represent about 24% of total other operating expenses. Remember, Valesco was an acquisition. It's in part of our employee base. And so we don't really call that out separately other than just to say generally, and Sam might note additional commentary here, but we're pleased with our work around integrating Valesco and really making Valesco a strategic asset for the company as we're thinking about not only the ability to manage the cost structure of emergency physician management and hospital medicine. It also really helps us with our strategic work around things like case management, to improve our length of stay and the ability to manage our emergency rooms and drive really good emergency room efficiency. So the work around Valesco continues to mature and really proud of our operating and our physician management teams for the really good work around Valesco. Sam... Samuel Hazen: Yes. The only thing I would add there, Mike, is I would say, generally, we do expect continued financial improvement as we carry forward into 2026. We haven't finalized their budgets yet either. And so we don't have a number specific to that, but we are seeing progression -- favorable progression in the financial performance of Valesco. And beyond even operational improvements, as Mike was alluding to, we expect clinical improvement, patient engagement improvement and other clinical efficacy, if you will, from the opportunity that we have with Valesco being part of our organization now. So we're excited about what the prospects are. Operator: And your next question comes from the line of Ben Rossi with JPMorgan. Benjamin Rossi: Regarding maybe the capacity for incremental volumes, I appreciate your commentary regarding the stable operational backdrop and some of your existing efforts and patient throughput. I guess as we think about 4Q and the typical seasonal uptick in utilization, how would you characterize the incremental cost to manage additional throughput or free up additional capacity? And then are you seeing any variance across your markets and being able to ramp up this capacity in a cost-effective manner? Samuel Hazen: Well, the short answer is we don't see any significant capacity constraints at this particular point in time. If you recall from a couple of years ago, we had capacity constraints that were driven mostly by staffing and not having the workforce that we needed to take care of the patients who desired service in our facilities. We don't have that issue today. We've improved the net headcount of the company, and we believe we have good programmatic efforts in place today to put us in a position to carry forward the workforce necessary to meet the demand that we expect in the fourth quarter. And really on into next year, we're excited about some of the other operational initiatives that are being put forward with our emergency rooms. We have very specific surge planning that we're preparing for and learning from past years to improve our preparation and anticipation of demand surges in whatever periods we have. So we feel much better about our capacity on the labor side. We're also encouraged about the fact that we have more capital coming online in 2026 than we had this year. And that will add physical capacity and align with the workforce capacity that we're creating and put the company in an even better position to accommodate the demand that we anticipate. Mike Marks: I might add as well that the work that we've been putting forth to manage length of stay has also been very helpful. Third quarter showed really good performance around length of stay management. Those efforts continue not only into the fourth quarter, but into 2026. That also gives us the ability to make additional room for volume growth as we head into the future. So I really want to call out to our operating teams and our case management teams for really good work this year to help us prepare for volume growth in the future. Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Jason Cassorla with Guggenheim. Jason Cassorla: Just wanted to ask about the hurricane-impacted facilities. I know you left that the same in guidance. There's a big step-up in the fourth quarter. But how should we think about the ability to recover the remaining $150 million or so headwind versus the $250 million total headwind back in 2024? Would you expect to recover the majority of that remaining headwind next year? Or how do we think about growth off that? Mike Marks: Yes. So let me walk back to just quickly the way the hurricane markets has kind of transversed this year. As you may recall, as we started the year, we actually thought that our 2025 full-year EBITDA would be about flat with 2024. And '24 had this $250 million hit from the hurricanes. And really, that $250 million hit was a hit to our pre-storm run rate of earnings. So think about to '23. As we're now updating guidance, we're -- we believe that we'll recapture, call it, $100 million of that in 2025. The real impact here now is just the continued and lingering effects of that storm and mostly in our North Carolina markets. While volumes have recovered in North Carolina, the payer mix has deteriorated, and we're having to use a significant amount of premium labor to staff those facilities. And so that's the driver there. It's too early to give 2026 guidance. But just to give you a sense of kind of how it's moved through the first 3 quarters of the year, first quarter of 2025 was about flat to prior year. Second quarter was a bit negative, modestly negative in third quarter '25 to '24 combined for our hurricane markets on EBITDA was again about flat. So that's why we said in fourth quarter, we do expect that all plus of that $100 million improvement in year-over-year EBITDA will happen in the fourth quarter. We will give more guidance on our fourth quarter call when we give full-year 2026 guidance about the hurricane markets. But hopefully, that helps as it relates to the movement through the year. Operator: And your next question comes from the line of Stephen Baxter with Wells Fargo. Stephen Baxter: I appreciate the early commentary on 2026. I'm wondering if there's something that you can speak to that gives you confidence in achieving the long-term volume range at this point. I guess the question would really just be without exchange growth, you'd be below the range this year. So I'm sure you thought about that even with an extension, exchange volumes could potentially be flat to down next year. But wondering how you're thinking about what the other moving parts are, whether that could be more level -- more normal levels of Medicaid or self-pay growth in there, too. Samuel Hazen: I realize the past is not prologue here, but we've had 18 consecutive quarters of volume growth. So that gives us a pretty confident foundation that we can continue to navigate through different dynamics within our markets. As I mentioned, we have more capital coming online next year. We have more outpatient facilities. So our ambulatory outreach is growing. We're building new relationships with physicians. All of that's woven into our thinking around 2026 volume. We continue to believe that population is growing in many of our markets, as it has, and there's going to be this consistent level of demand. The exchange piece of it is a small component of the overall, again, diversification that we have as a company. And so when you add all that up, we feel pretty confident that the range will accommodate some of the movement within our overall demand equation. Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Craig Hettenbach with Morgan Stanley. Craig Hettenbach: On the $600 million to $800 million resiliency program you laid out a few years ago, can you just give us a sense on kind of how you're tracking to that? And then how you think about any additional levers to extend that further over time, whether that's technology or increased AI adoption? Mike Marks: Yes. So at our Investor Day back in 2023, we highlighted our resiliency plan, including that target of $600 million to $800 million. We've been working hard on that. And -- but the other thing that we highlighted, so yes, some of those dollars helped us in '24 and in '25 -- but as we've gone through really the last 12 to 18 months, we've been focused at both enhancing and accelerating our development of our resiliency program and our execution of our resiliency program. And that development piece is key. We think about this as a program. In other words, as we have work streams that we identify, we work those through, we pilot them, we execute on them and then we roll them out to scale. And then literally, every day, we're hunting for new ideas. And our teams are really attuned to this idea of the pipeline of resiliency and identifying new ideas. And as new ideas come into our resiliency work stream efforts, those ideas, again, are piloted. They are verified within our markets, and then we try to roll them out at scale. And so think about the resiliency program with all of our benchmarking work with all of our digital technology and development. We have a robust series of use cases that are in flight for AI, machine learning and automation. And then lastly, as I mentioned earlier, this notion of continuing to expand the impact of our shared service platforms, all of those combined really give us encouragement that we are preparing for the future and that this resiliency program is not a static, onetime event. It is a program that allows us to develop financial resiliency well into the future as well. Samuel Hazen: I think, Mike, some of that's reflected. I mean if you just look back in 2023, when we gave the update on the resiliency program and you look at the core operating margin of the company at that particular point in time versus what it is now, it's improved. And so we're experiencing some of that in the margin advancement that you're seeing in the results of the company. And we are continuing to, as Mike said, with technology, with best practices, with benchmarking, with finding other ways to deliver more efficient services. We see this as a growing agenda, not one that's static. Frank Morgan: Priela, let's take one more question. We're running up close to the end of the hour. Operator: Yes. Your last question comes from Joshua Raskin with Nephron Research. Joshua Raskin: I appreciate that. So I wanted to ask about cash flow conversion. We've seen the ratio of EBITDA that converts to free cash flow sort of move from the 30% range into the 40s. And I think this year, you're on track to almost 50%. So maybe talk about the factors that are driving that? Is that a shift to outpatient? Is there an impact from the strong pricing, including the sub payments? And I guess, most importantly, do you think that's sustainable over the next couple of years? Mike Marks: There's 3 or 4 things I would note that are driving our strong cash flow from operations as we think about it. One certainly is just we've had really solid adjusted EBITDA growth. And that strong operational performance that we continue to highlight as we think about the strength of our revenue cycle operations with Parallon, we turn that revenue into cash. And so that's a piece of that. And you're seeing that in kind of our working capital management plans. We have a pretty robust working capital management strategic plan that includes not only net days in ARR, but includes things like inventory levels, prepaid levels. And that work around working capital continues to assist us as we think about growing our cash flow. The other point, and I made this on the call, but it's important to note is that year-to-date, we have been able to defer $1.3 billion of estimated federal income tax payments to the fourth quarter. And so keep that in mind as well. But when I think about the long term, this idea of clearing out your revenue with cash and the strength of Parallon and our revenue cycle operations and the strength of the working capital management plans of the company, I think, puts us in good stead for continued strong management and performance around cash flow into the future. Operator: And that is all the time we have for questions. I would like to turn it back to Mr. Frank Morgan for some closing remarks. Frank Morgan: Priela, thank you for your help today, and certainly, good luck for the rest of the earnings season. If anybody has any questions, we're around today. Give us a call. Thank you. Operator: Thank you, presenters. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.
Anders Edholm: Good morning, and welcome to this presentation of SCA's 2025 Third Quarter Results. With me here today, I have President and CEO, Ulf Larsson; and CFO, Andreas Ewertz, to go through the results and take your questions. Over to you, Ulf. Ulf Larsson: Thank you, Anders. And also from my side, a good morning. Happy to present results for the third quarter '25. So -- and when I summarize the quarter, we can state that SCA continued to deliver a solid result in a rather challenging environment. Our high degree of self-sufficiency in strategic areas continued to be an important factor to mitigate higher costs, not the least related to wood raw materials. Our EBITDA reached SEK 1.64 billion and by that, an EBITDA margin of 33% for the third quarter. In Q3 '25, we had substantially lower prices in the Pulp segment in comparison with the same period last year. Our planned maintenance stops in pulp and containerboard were also considerably more extensive compared to the same quarter last year. Delivery volumes in the Containerboard segment increased this year compared with the same quarter last year, driven by the continued ramp-up of our Obbola containerboard mill. The uncertain market situation, mainly dominated by changing tariffs continues to affect market conditions. The forest industry in general is momentarily challenged by a weaker -- with a market with soft underlying demand in many product areas. Turning over to some financial KPIs for the third quarter '25. As already mentioned, our EBITDA reached SEK 1.64 billion in the quarter, which corresponds to a 33% EBITDA margin and a 22% EBIT margin. Our industrial return on capital employed came out just over 6%, counted for the last 12 months. And the leverage was at 1.7x with our -- while our net debt to equity reached 11.2%. I will now make some comments for each segment, starting with Forest. Higher harvesting levels from our own forest have not the least contributed to stable supply of wood raw materials to our industries during this period. We have seen a continuous long-term trend of increasing prices for both pulpwood and sawlogs as can be seen in the graph on the bottom left. Regarding pulpwood, we have now passed the peak, I guess, and the prices have started to come down during this quarter. Demand for sawlogs continues to be high, especially for spruce logs. When one compares Q3 '25 with Q3 '24, sales were up 14%, while EBITDA was up 17%, mainly due to higher prices for wood raw materials. Turning over to Wood. In general, we still have a slow underlying market for solid wood products. As said before, we have noted signs of improvement in the repair and remodeling segment this year in comparison with the last year, but the uncertainty in general economic development continues to affect the market recovery negatively. Stock levels remain on the high side among producers for pine, but are on normal levels for spruce. Stock levels at customers continue to be on the low side. The volumes in both production and deliveries were good for SCA during the quarter, resulting in a close to unchanged stock level of sawn goods. The price for solid wood products decreased by 5% in the third quarter of '25 in comparison with the second quarter of '25. This development is in line with what I said when I presented the report for the second quarter. As expected, the cost for sawlogs has increased from the second to the third quarter, and we also expect them to continue to increase going into the fourth quarter. Sales were in line with the same quarter last year. EBITDA margin decreased from 19% to 15% due to higher raw material costs and a negative currency effect. Today's stock level of solid wood products in Sweden and Finland is described at the top left on this slide and is shown in relation to the average for the last 5 years. As mentioned earlier, we note that the inventory level is on the high side, especially for pine, while the SCA level is rather normal. As can be seen in the diagram to the bottom left, the Swedish and Finnish sawmills production has been on a normal level during the first 8 months of '25. In the diagram to the top right, we can note that the price decreased during the third quarter. The decrease in pine has been larger in comparison with the spruce products. Going into the next quarter, I estimate that prices on average again will decrease by up to 5%, somewhat more for pine and somewhat less for spruce. And this is driven by the momentarily high availability of pine products. In the construction sector, we can conclude that start of new buildings continues to be low. As said before, uncertainties are still present, but we see improved consumption in the repair and remodeling sector. The level of duties now put in place on wood products from Canada delivered to U.S., about 45% in comparison to the level for wood products from European Union, delivered to the U.S. about 10% has strengthened the competitiveness for EU producers in comparison with Canadian producers. And I guess it's likely that the price level in U.S. will increase when stock levels are coming down from today's high levels. So over to pulp. When comparing Q3 '25 with Q3 '24, sales were down 21%, mainly due to lower prices, a lower delivery volume and a negative currency effect. EBITDA was down 57%, compared to last year, mainly due to lower prices, a negative currency effect and higher cost for wood raw materials. The cost for the planned maintenance stop was SEK 83 million this quarter compared to SEK 35 million in Q3 '24. Global demand for pulp was at a healthy level during the first quarter of '25. During the second quarter, the market changed with reduced demand and prices came under pressure, much due to uncertainty related to U.S. tariffs. During the third quarter, prices on NBSK pulp were stable at low levels. On the demand side, we saw increased activity in China during the quarter. The weakening of the U.S. dollar in relation to the Swedish krona, which started already in Q1, continued to have a negative impact on the pricing in SEK also in Q3. Tariffs on NBSK pulp from the European Union to the U.S. were removed during the third quarter, and this allows us to maintain a competitive offering in the U.S. Looking at CTMP, prices have been unchanged in Asia at low levels and have decreased slowly in Europe during the third quarter. Inventories of softwood and CTMP have been increasing in July and August, as you can see in the diagram and are now on the high level. Hardwood inventories on the contrary were stable during the third quarter. Moving over to Containerboard. Sales were up 10% in Q3 in comparison with the same period last year, driven by higher delivery volumes and higher prices, somewhat mitigated by a negative currency effect. EBITDA was down by 39%, very much driven by long planned maintenance stop with a cost of SEK 204 million versus SEK 87 million in Q3 2024. Higher costs for wood raw materials and a negative currency effect also had an impact. We have seen a softer box demand during the last quarter, but still with a positive development on a year-to-date basis. The retail business remains on a positive driver. On the other side, we continue to see a weak European manufacturing industry, which, for the moment, drives the demand in a negative direction. After a stable first half of the year of European demand of containerboard has started to decrease in Q3, due to the current turbulent macro environment, it's difficult to have a view on the long-term demand. In Q3, we have seen additional supply coming on stream with the vast majority coming in testliner. We do not expect further capacity increases in Q4, except from the ramp-up effect of newly started machines. Kraftliner inventories remain above average level in Q3, as you can see in the graph. During Q3, the availability of OCC has been good, driven by the lower demand in the quarter, which in its turn has led to decreasing prices of OCC. Moving into Q4, we see the availability of OCC to be stable and expect prices to be more or less unchanged. Prices for brown kraftliner in Central Europe has during Q3 decreased with EUR 20 per tonne, driven mainly by slow demand and reduced prices of OCC. White kraftliner has remained stable. Finally, I will say some words about renewable energy. In this area, we have had a weaker quarter compared to the same period last year, mainly due to lower prices in wind power and solid biofuels. Continued improvements in ramping up Gothenburg biorefinery are partly compensating for this. The market for solid biofuels in Northern Sweden continues to be weak due to warm weather and low electricity prices. This factor increases our export share and by that, reduced margin. For liquid biofuels, we have seen higher margins compared to previous quarters. The main reasons are tighter supply due to maintenance stops in biorefineries, European countries implementing RED III and better control mechanism within the EU regarding imported feedstock. We expect market volatility in renewable fuels to remain high as Europe ramps up the blending mandates both from -- both in HVO and SAF. Electricity prices were low during the quarter, which impacted on our wind business negatively, but it is good, of course, for SCA as a net buyer of electricity. SCA's land lease business is stable at 9.7 terawatt hours, which is equal to 20% of installed capacity of wind power in Sweden. Installed capacity on our land is expected to reach 10.5 terawatt hours by the end of the year. And by that, I hand over to you, Andreas. Andreas Ewertz: Thank you, Ulf, and good morning, everybody. I'll start off with the income statement for the third quarter. Net sales decreased 5% to SEK 5 billion, driven by negative currency effects and lower prices, which was partly offset by higher delivery volumes. EBITDA decreased 18% to SEK 1.6 billion, driven by negative currency effects, lower prices and higher costs for planned maintenance stops. EBIT decreased to SEK 1.1 billion and financial items totaled minus SEK 103 million. With an effective tax rate of just below 20%, bringing net profit to SEK 0.8 billion or SEK 1.19 per share. On the next slide, we have the financial development by segment and starting with the Forest segment to the left. Net sales decreased to SEK 2.4 billion, driven by lower delivery volumes compared to the previous quarter due to several planned maintenance stop at SCA's industries. EBITDA decreased to SEK 912 million due to seasonally lower harvest from SCA's own forest. In wood, prices decreased compared to previous quarter, while the cost for sawlogs continued to increase. Net sales decreased to SEK 1.5 billion, driven by lower delivery volumes and lower prices compared to the previous quarter. EBITDA decreased to SEK 232 million, corresponding to a margin of 15%. In pulp, net sales decreased to SEK 1.65 billion, driven by lower delivery volumes and lower prices. EBITDA decreased to SEK 242 million, corresponding to a margin of 15%. Higher costs for planned maintenance stops and lower prices were offset by lower costs. We had lower energy and raw material costs in the quarter, and Q3 is also a low-cost quarter for indirect costs in all segments, which had a positive impact. In Containerboard, net sales decreased to SEK 1.8 billion and EBITDA decreased to SEK 194 million, corresponding to a margin of 11%. Result was negatively impacted by planned maintenance stops in both Munksund and Obbola of SEK 204 million. The market for renewable energy continued to be weak. EBITDA decreased compared to previous quarter and amounted to SEK 79 million, corresponding to a margin of 21%. The decrease was mainly driven by lower deliveries of solid biofuels. On the next slide, we have the sales bridge between Q3 last year and Q3 this year. Prices decreased 2%, driven by lower pulp prices. Volumes increased 1%, driven by higher volumes in containerboard, which was also offset by lower volumes in pulp. And lastly, currency had a negative impact of 4%, bringing net sales to SEK 5 billion. Moving on to EBITDA bridge and starting to the left. Price/mix had a negative impact of SEK 99 million and higher volumes had a positive impact of SEK 14 million. Higher costs for mainly wood raw materials had a negative impact of SEK 57 million, which was mitigated by our highest degree of self-sufficiency. We had a positive impact from energy of SEK 37 million and a negative impact of currency of SEK 169 million. This was impacted by higher costs for planned maintenance stops. And in total, EBITDA decreased to SEK 1.6 billion, corresponding to a margin of 33%. Looking at the cash flow. Operating cash flow increased to SEK 1.1 billion for the quarter, and SEK 2.5 billion for the first 9 months. And as you know, other operating cash flow relates mostly to working capital currency hedges and should be seen together with changes in working capital. Looking at the balance sheet. The value of the forest asset totaled SEK 108 billion. Working capital decreased compared to previous quarter and totaled SEK 5.6 billion. Capital employed totaled SEK 160 billion and net debt decreased compared to the previous quarter to SEK 11.7 billion. And we have now almost finalized our large ongoing investment projects. Equity totaled SEK 104 billion and net debt to equity was 11%. Thank you. With that, I'll hand back to you, Ulf. Ulf Larsson: So thank you, Andreas. And well, just to summarize, I mean, as I said, we have continued to deliver a solid result in a rather challenging environment. . I guess the market has bottomed in more or less all areas except from solid wood products. On the other side, we will see a cost pressure coming in our solid wood business, wider price for pulpwood has now stabilized and are on its way down, I would say. In pulp and kraftliner, I guess, the market is going sideways now, and we are 100% focused on what we can have an impact on ourselves, which is meaning that we are focusing on the ramp-up of our big projects. And they are going very well -- did go very well during the third quarter. So by that, I think that we open up for some questions. Operator: [Operator Instructions] And we will now take our first question from Ioannis Masvoulas of Morgan Stanley. Ioannis Masvoulas: I've got 3 questions, if I may. I'll take them one at a time. First on pulpwood costs. Given the small decline that you show in your slide deck for Q3 and the typical lag in your business, what should we expect for cost development in your industries in Q4 this year and also Q1 2026? Ulf Larsson: You asked about pulpwood. And as I said, I mean, we see that now that prices for pulpwood is coming down in the market. But as you say, we have a lagging effect. And I could say that we have -- it's around 6 months or less. Andreas? Andreas Ewertz: Yes. So in the fourth quarter, I mean, fairly flat, maybe we're talking about 1% decline in pulpwood prices. So fairly flat, while the cost for sawlogs will continue to increase a bit into Q4. Ulf Larsson: And in the beginning of next year? Andreas Ewertz: Then I think that pulpwood will slowly continue to decrease. But as I said, I would say, it's around 6 months of lag effect in the terms of sawlogs. I think they will start to peak also around maybe Q1, Q1 next year. Ioannis Masvoulas: And then going back to pulp, looking at NBSK inventories on days of supply were pretty much at the top of the historical range, do you see the recent temporary curtailments among your peers to help rebalance the market in the short term? Or do we need to see more aggressive supply response? Ulf Larsson: It's hard to say, I mean, maybe I didn't say that, but I mean we are still at a very high operating rate in NBSK, and we should because we have a very low cash cost, of course. But on the other hand, we see announcements now from many areas where they have started to take curtailments. I guess also in the statistics that you see now, we haven't included the typical longer maintenance stops that we have had now during the autumn. So I guess that the inventory will come down. And as always, it's a question, it's a supply-demand issue. And I guess we will see a better balance, but I mean, underlying, we have to wait for an increase in consumption before we can say that we have a stronger market. Ioannis Masvoulas: Understood. And then just last question for me on the FX hedging. Looking at your disclosure, you seem to have brought down your USD hedge ratios for the next 4 quarters. Is that a conscious decision to avoid locking in an unfavorable FX rate? And could these ratios come down further in the coming quarters if spot FX rates persist? Andreas Ewertz: We use statistical model for our hedge strategy. So we have -- for the next 6 months, we hedge around 50% to 85% of our net exposure and then it goes down. But then it depends on statistically how favorable the currency is. So we use model and for the U.S. dollar currently in the low range of that while for euro, we are on the normal range. Operator: And we'll now take our next question from Linus Larsson of SEB. Linus Larsson: Couple of questions on use of funds. It seems to me that you have a very strong balance sheet. Cash flow is robust through the cycle. You're running at high operating rates, like you say, your competitiveness is strong. How do you look at buybacks in this context, given where your share price is trading and given your investment plans for the time being? Ulf Larsson: If we start with the investment plan, as I said, we are just now 100% focused on ramping up what we have started, and we feel that we are doing that in a good way. As I've also said, I mean, just now, we sit on our hands. We will not start up new big projects. And I guess, as all other companies, we also try to -- yes, not do too many current investments because we have an uncertain market coming going forward, I mean, that's the position we have just now. And the question about buybacks, I mean, that is more question for the Board, honestly. So let's see. We are now focused on ramping up what we have started. And by that, as you said, we expect that we will increase our cash flow capacity substantially. Linus Larsson: Yes. Yes. No, that's great. But I mean, principally, how does the Board look at buybacks? Is there like a principal view on whether or not buybacks is part of the toolbox? Ulf Larsson: Again, that's a question for the Board. But as far as I understand, we have no principles in this matter. I think we have done since the split 2017, I mean, we have invested 20% of the net sales in the company every year. For us, that's a lot of money. For all companies, it's a lot of money. So we are more focused just now to realize the cash flow that we suppose -- that we will have from these ongoing investments, so that's our focus now. Linus Larsson: Yes. No, that's clear. And just to finish off that, what's your CapEx guidance for 2025 and 2026, respectively? Andreas Ewertz: If you look at CapEx for '25, I think that current CapEx will be around SEK 1.5 billion. We might have some spillover to next year, so SEK 1.4 billion, SEK 1.5 billion. And then in terms of strategic CapEx, also depending on timing of some payment, but around SEK 1.3 billion, SEK 1.4 billion. So maybe SEK 2.8 billion in total for current and strategic, but it depends on certain timing of certain payments. For next year, strategic CapEx will go down. We have some payments left in the ramp-ups, but strategic CapEx will come down. And then I would guess that current will be slightly higher than this year since we have some spillover from this year to next year. Linus Larsson: But how much will the strategic CapEx go down? Is it SEK 0.5 billion or SEK 1 billion or around the backlog? Andreas Ewertz: It depends on some timing, but I would guess we have a couple of hundred millions left on our current projects. Operator: And we'll now take our next question from Charlie Muir-Sands of BNP Paribas. Charlie Muir-Sands: I wanted to start on the round wood market. So you mentioned obviously log prices are high and if anything, still slightly moving up due to high demand. But equally, it sounds like the wood products market in general is still quite soft. So I'm just trying to understand, is this a demand that's for other uses? Or are you basically saying this is more of a supply issue for the market? And if so, is this just of a hangover from the spark beetle delivery from prior years? Or is there any other reason why we could expect some better balance coming back on the supply side soon? And then just on the pulpwood cost side, very helpful the detail you've given so far. But just in terms of the timing effects, the changes in pricing of pulpwood hit the forestry and then the industrial segment at the same time? Or is there a phasing effect whereby the P&L benefit on forest is reduced before the cost tailwind on the industrial segments come through or anything like that to be aware of. Andreas Ewertz: Yes. So if you look at the pricing, I mean we base our internal prices of what the Forest division pays for its sourcing and a lot to buy on stumpage. So you buy the right to harvest. And then, I mean, you optimize the harvesting to try to have some larger areas to have efficient harvesting. So it can be vary. I mean, some of these -- what the harvest is couple of months. You bought it for some might be 3 months ago or 6 months ago. And then that average price is what the industry gets to pay. But the pricing is -- when the prices goes down, the industry will get a lower price, but then, of course, our Forest division will earn less money on their own harvest. But one day, what they source externally that they get paid for. And then the second question -- the first question was around the demand for sawlogs. Ulf Larsson: The coming demand. I mean, as we see just now, we have, as you saw on the graph in Sweden and Finland, the production is still on a normal level, even if we know that the price -- log prices are very, very high. And profitability in the business is, in general, rather low. We feel rather confident with the profitability we have in our own Wood division. But I mean we -- up until today, we haven't seen any signs of decreasing log prices actually. Andreas Ewertz: And also -- it's also difference between pine and spruce sawlog. On spruce sawlog, you have much lower supply compared to pine sawlog, sort of pricing and demand difference there. Charlie Muir-Sands: And then just on the wood products side, you mentioned the relative competitive advantage for EU exporters to the U.S. now versus Canadian. Can you just talk about the relative profitability of your U.S. business compared with your European business today? How big an opportunity might this be? Ulf Larsson: Yes. First, if we take the tariffs, I mean, as I said, the tariff just now going from Europe over to U.S. is 10%, and coming from Canada over to U.S., then the tariff is 45%. As it is just now, in U.S., the stock level is on the very high side. So, so far, we haven't seen any impact on the, let's say, the local price in U.S. But I guess when the inventory level is coming down, then, of course, customers, they have to start to buy and then they can buy some volume from Europe and they have to buy some volume from Canada. But then I guess that prices can in a short while, increased quite dramatically. We don't have a big volume for U.S. We do, let's say, 80,000 cubic meter per year. But again, it's a global market. So if we start to see better trade in U.S., I mean, that will, of course, have also an impact on the European market and also the Asian market and so on and so on. So we have to wait and see. But I mean, as it is just now, I guess, it's more a question of time. We will have a slow fourth quarter, as we always have. And I guess it will be rather slow also in the first quarter. But then I guess, in the beginning of the second quarter next year, then we might start to see something. Charlie Muir-Sands: But Canadian volumes can't get displaced into other parts of the world or even coming into Europe to offset that benefit? Ulf Larsson: Yes, not really. I mean, of course, you will see some Canadian volumes in China and you might -- I don't think you will see too much of it in Europe. Again, it's -- you have the distribution cost and many of those sawmills, they are located inland. And so it's also a question of distribution, inland distribution cost within in Canada so I guess if this remains, which you never know, I mean, then you probably will see further closures and capacity reductions. And honestly, I don't know really how the U.S. -- I mean, we know that U.S., they need a lot of solid wood products coming into U.S. So I guess it might be so that we see some further changes going forward now. Also when it comes to tariffs and things like that. So I mean, it's -- but all these -- I think we had a question before. But I mean, tariffs, we are not directly too much impacted by tariffs. We can handle that in a good way. But I guess that this discussion has created uncertainty globally. And that's the reason also why we have a rather slow demand in Asia in more or less all product areas. And so I mean that is the -- I guess the worst thing with tariffs is it is creating some kind of uncertainty in all areas and globally. Operator: We'll now take our next question from Robin Santavirta of DNB. Robin Santavirta: Thank you very much. Firstly, I have a question related to the Containerboard business. Looking at the delivery volumes now this year, they have been quite steady, but it seems still Obbola is not running at full capacity. And now you had the log maintenance shut. So could you give some guidelines on volume outlook for that segment in Q4 and early 2026? Should we expect a bit of a step change or more of a slow gradual ramp-up during the end of the year and next year? Ulf Larsson: When it comes to Obbola, we have said that Obbola will produce 600,000 tonnes this year, and they will do so if nothing expected will happen in the fourth quarter. Then it is a tough market in kraftliner. So we have seen during the third quarter, increasing inventories in kraftliner. And so that's the case. And as you said, we also had a rather long maintenance stop in Q3. So that also had an impact on deliveries. But production-wise, Obbola will reach 600,000 tonnes next -- this year. And then the plan is to reach 700,000 tonnes next year. Robin Santavirta: Okay. Okay. Can I ask about this EU deforestation regulation? How do you view that? Will that have any kind of impact for your businesses in Europe either way, what is your view? Ulf Larsson: I mean, it has also created a lot of uncertainty. But I guess for us, we can manage EUDR, but of course, it would be an administrative burden, which we don't like. But we can handle it. Robin Santavirta: But what about your competitors? Could it be a setup where some pulp had been imported from some countries or some paperboard that has been imported from Asia or Americas, they could end up in a bit of difficulty to do so in the future? Or will this impact trade flow at all in your view? Ulf Larsson: Yes, it's very hard to predict. I mean, we have been working quite hard to find out a system which will not create a lot of administration. And I mean, typically, we are for free trade. I think that's good. And I think that EU in the long run, they will benefit from a free trade. We don't know what -- how this will be implemented in the trade up till today. So again, this is also another thing that really creates uncertainty. But the honest answer is we don't know how that will -- this will play out. The only thing we can do is to focus on our own ability to meet the requirements that might come. Robin Santavirta: Yes, for sure, for sure. Follow-up question related to the pulp market. What is going on in the softwood pulp market? There's a lot of curtailments now during early autumn. Certainly, Finland, some in Sweden as well, I understand some in Canada as well. And historically, when you do that, you tighten up the market quite quickly. Now we're not seeing that. Is this a bit of a substitution into hardwood pulp? Is it some Chinese volumes that -- I mean, historically, they do not produce a lot of softwood pulp. Now I understand there is some production going on in China as well. So why is not the market tightening despite the quite significant production curtailments in the Northern Hemisphere? Ulf Larsson: I guess the first thing is that the underlying demand is weak. So that's the first explanation. The second thing is substitution. I don't think that we will see more of substitution today than we did last year. I mean, it's not as easy as that. And we have always had a delta between hardwood and softwood prices. So I mean, if possible, I guess, it would have already been done. So I haven't heard anything -- no structural changes in that area. What we know is that a lot of capacity in pulp is -- will be built up in China. And that, of course, sooner or later, that will -- might have an impact. As it is just now, we are more considered about the CTMP volumes. And as we have understood, I mean, the board market is very weak. And while companies in Asia while they closed down the converting and stop producing boards, I mean, they still produce CTMP, and that will, of course, give a surplus in the market. Then also, I guess, that the statistics that we also saw on our side was from August, Andreas, and I guess we will see some other figures now coming into September, October and so on. We also have had a lot of big maintenance stops in pulp. But you're right. I mean, we also hear that companies, they are taking curtailments now. So far, no big changes. But I mean -- and the prices maybe -- I guess that the price has already bottomed because at this level, we see that curtailments are taken instead of continuing to produce and of course, creating a negative cash flow. So we have reached the bottom. I guess we will see some result of actions taken now later this year. But again, the fundamental challenge is the underlying demand that must come back. Robin Santavirta: Thank you very much. Operator: And we'll now move on to our next question from Oskar Lindstrom of Danske Bank. Oskar Lindström: Three questions for me, if I may. The first one is just on the lower wood cost. You mentioned this in the Pulp division sequentially, but not in containerboard, sorry, not lower pulp costs, lower wood costs, having a positive impact on pulp, but it didn't seem to have it on Containerboard. What's the reason for that? Should I go on with the other questions? Andreas Ewertz: No, we take 1 at a time. So I mean, we have maybe 1% lower pulpwood prices in both Containerboard and in Pulp. In Pulp, we had a better yield in the quarters, we had lower consumption of both energy and wood and they generally have low cost quarter. But I would say it's more on the consumption side that we have lower cost on pulp in this quarter. Oskar Lindström: And in Containerboard, was it just the maintenance stop that sort of... Andreas Ewertz: The Containerboard, we had large maintenance stop both in Munksund and Obbola, the cost around SEK 20 million. So that quarter was impacted by that stop. Oskar Lindström: Right. Moving on to cash flow. You say that you will increase your cash flow significantly in 2026, and I presume beyond as well, while CapEx looks as if it's going to come down quite a bit. If we only look at the ramp-up of Obbola, can you say anything about what kind of contribution you expect from that 2026 versus 2025? If you reach the 100,000 tonnes, could you put a monetary value on that? Andreas Ewertz: Currently, I would say it's hard to put the money on the excess volume because you said that currently have a weaker market, and that means that the extra volumes you would place on -- you have a worst customer mix and country mix on those extra volumes that will, of course, depend on how the market develops. If you have a stronger market, I mean, those volumes would be placed in customers in Europe and places nearby. And that will have a larger impact. But if you have a weak market, of course, then we'll have to put it further away. So it depends on how the market develops. Ulf Larsson: And also to add, I mean, if you have -- yes, maybe that was exactly what you said. I mean, if you have an additional volume already this year, if you go from a little bit over 400 up to 600, I mean that puts a pressure in a tough market that puts a pressure on the market side, of course. So I mean you also have a -- you have ramp-up production-wise, but you also have a ramp-up in the market. So of course, we have to find markets overseas not at least as it is just now. Oskar Lindström: Of course. And my third question is, I mean, we've seen other companies in your sector announcing cost savings and even structural changes as a consequence of the tough market, which both they and you seem to feel is not about to change anytime soon. I mean, do you see any need for you to take actions if demand does not improve, either cost-saving actions or structural changes? Ulf Larsson: I mean, if we go back to 2017, as I said, we have been invested 20% of the net sales more or less every year. And by that, we have also top-class sites as it is just now. We have also, during this period, closed down our publication paper business. and we are focused on pulp, containerboard and also solid wood products and to some extent, also renewable energy. And step by step, I mean, as soon as we see that we can reduce the manning or if we can do something else to improve our cost position, we will do that. So for me, it's -- I don't like those programs because that means that you haven't done your work -- your ongoing work, so to say. Andreas Ewertz: For the last one and half year we had a program to reduce our personnel at our pulp division with around 80 people and has gradually begun to give an effect. Ulf Larsson: And we reduced the manning by 800 people when we closed down the publication paper business. So I mean, if you have structural changes, then, of course, you have to follow up with personnel reductions, but otherwise, that is something that you have to do. That's the everyday work. Oskar Lindström: My final question is on CapEx, which you talked a little bit about here. You say that you expect next year for current CapEx to be -- I can't remember the exact wording, but slightly higher. And then how much higher is that? And then you said the strategic CapEx will be a couple of hundred million. How many couples of hundreds of millions are we talking about? Is it possible for you to be a little bit more precise? I'm just wondering. Andreas Ewertz: It depends, of course, on what overspill we have to next year, and then it depends. I mean, we have our base CapEx for next year. And then we have some potential projects, and it depends on which of them we go through with which timing, but if we go around 1.5 this year, then you're talking maybe SEK 100 million, SEK 200 million more next year on current CapEx. But again, it depends on what projects we do. And also on the strategic side, it will -- I mean, it will be between 0 and SEK 1 billion but it depends on the timing of our strategic CapEx. For example, we have 1 payment that would either go at the end of this year or the early next year, which is around SEK 150 million, and we have a couple of hundred millions next year. So it depends. But just to give a rough figure. Ulf Larsson: But CapEx will come down. Andreas Ewertz: Yes, CapEx will come down, yes. Oskar Lindström: Thank you very much. Those are my questions. Operator: And we'll now take our next question from Martin Melbye of ABG. Martin Melbye: Given tariffs and new volumes to place, could you give some hints on prices for Pulp and Containerboard at volumes heading into Q4 quarter-over-quarter? Ulf Larsson: I mean, we don't know. That's the honest answer. But as I said, we -- I guess, we are in Pulp at the bottom level just now. I mean, as we -- as I said before, I mean, we have seen substantial curtailments taken now. And so I guess, Pulp prices will -- if they -- the only way from this point, I guess, is upwards. When will that come? Well, remains to see, I guess. I think for Containerboard, we have more capacity has come on stream during the third quarter. No additional capacity will come on stream, but we will see some ramp-ups. I guess we will see some closures in testliner going forward. The balance for kraftliner is much better, of course. I mean, the only additional volume coming in now is our own from the ramp-up in Obbola. On the other side, the inventory level is on the high side coming down a little bit now when we had the new statistics. So it's always -- it's a question of supply-demand balance, of course. But my best guess is sideways, maybe we will start to see upward trend in Pulp and maybe sideways in Containerboard. And as I already said, I guess, we will see somewhat decrease in prices in solid wood products, I guess, another 5% in the fourth quarter and then the first quarter is always -- it's tricky to increase prices in the first quarter. If something is happening now in U.S., that might have a faster impact on the pricing for solid wood products. But otherwise, I think we have to wait for the second quarter next year. Andreas Ewertz: And in terms of volumes, forest, you harvest a bit more from our own forest in the fourth quarter. In solid wood products, I sort of mentioned, you seasonally weaker quarter compared to the summer months so they have lower delivery volumes. In Containerboard, it will be slightly higher since we had a big maintenance stop in the third quarter, which we won't have in the fourth. And in Pulp, I would say it's slightly up or flat. Operator: Thank you. And we'll now take our next question from Cole Hathorn of Jefferies. Please go ahead. Cole Hathorn: I'd just like to ask what do you see would be the positive catalyst for each of your segments and like to take it in turn. But maybe starting on Pulp. What do you think is truly needed exit the demand? Do you think it's going to be capacity closure potentially something out of Canada considering they've got elevated wood costs and you see a sawmill go down and then pulpwood closure that tightens the market. Wood product, is it ultimately just a demand that's needed rather than any form of supply response? And Containerboard, I'm just wondering what are you looking for in the market for kraftliner. Is it -- do we need to rely on the recycled closures and to follow that? Or are you seeing the ability to kind of keep this premium versus recycled considering the less imports from the U.S. and much better supply-demand balance in... Ulf Larsson: If we start with pulp, I guess, it's again, it's about demand. The tissue business is rather slow, of course, it might be impacted by closures also, again, it's a supply-demand issue. And it might be so that just my speculation, but I mean, if we will have a tough -- if tariffs will remain in Canada for solid wood products that will have a negative impact on the raw material supply to the pulp mills that might have an impact over time, of course. Otherwise, it's demand and mainly then in the tissue segment. In wood, as already said, I mean, we are in the slower season just now in Q4 and Q1. I guess that sooner or later, Americans, they have -- they must start to buy solid wood products. And if the tariff level from Canada over to U.S. will remain of 45%, that definitely will mean that we will see increasing prices in solid wood products even if you're not a big supplier to U.S., which we are not, but still, that will have an impact on the global trade rather immediately, I would say. And then we know that it can start to move quite fast. But I guess if you look at the inventory level in U.S., we have to wait for at least a quarter before we can see something. In Containerboard, I mean, we look at the box consumption, and we feel that we have a slow demand from the industry while I mean, in other businesses for food and yes, maybe trade and that part -- that is going quite in a normal pace. So -- but the industry for us, I mean, heavy-duty spare parts and things like that where we typically can find a premium for kraftliner. My -- I don't know, but my guess is also that we will see closures in testliner, I guess that the main part of testliner produces just now, they don't make money. And I guess we have a chicken race on the testliner side as this just now. The balance both for Containerboard, kraftliner and also for NBSK, it's much, much better than for recycled-based production. Cole Hathorn: And then maybe just following up on capital allocation. You were clear that you're ramping up your projects, your past peak CapEx. And beyond that, you've got flexibility for consider capital returns via dividends and buybacks. But you didn't mention anything on M&A, and I'm just wondering how you think about that? And what are your criteria there? Would you consider anything in Central Eastern Europe if a very low-cost asset came available? Are you staying with your production base in Sweden? Just like your thoughts. Ulf Larsson: I mean, typically, we are a company based on organic growth. And typically, we are a company focused on Sweden where we have our own forest. We don't like to stay in countries where we can see a higher risk really. So I guess we are -- but on the other hand, you shall never say no. But typically, we are based on -- and focused on organic growth as it is. Andreas Ewertz: And as Ulf mentioned before, currently, I mean, we're focusing on our ramp-up of our current project before we add some too much complexity. Operator: And we will now move on to our next question from Andrew Jones of UBS. Andrew Jones: Can you hear me okay? Andreas Ewertz: Now, we hear you. Andrew Jones: Sorry, apologies, I missed the start of the call. So if you've mentioned this, my apologies. But on the actual solid wood products, what usually give a bit of the sort of guidance range in terms of pricing? I mean, how do you look at pricing going into the fourth quarter on -- in the Wood division? And then also, I think on the last quarter, you sort of gave us like a percentage changes you expect in the Forest division in both logs and then pulp. What sort of percentage changes are you sort of thinking about in the Forest for those 2 categories? Ulf Larsson: The first one, yes, we did mention that one. And as I said, I mean, we lost 5% in terms of price from -- in the third quarter in comparison with the second quarter. And I guess that we will lose another 5% in the fourth quarter. And that is mainly a seasonal effect as the demand always -- we always have a slower demand in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter. Forest, Andreas, you can... Andreas Ewertz: Yes. So Forest, pulpwood, I mean, they have peaked. We saw a very slight decrease here in the third quarter, maybe 1%, and we expect fairly flat, maybe 1% down in Q4 because of this lag effect. In terms of sawlogs, they will continue to increase a bit in the fourth quarter, maybe 5% compared to Q3, but that's also because you saw that the logs were quite flat within Q2 and Q3. But that's more of a mix effect. We had lower dimension on the logs, which have a lower prices. So we didn't get that so underlying, the prices increased also in Q2 to Q3. But since we had that mix, we didn't see that increase. But now we'll get that in Q4 so maybe 5% up. Andrew Jones: So it sounds like a pretty tough quarter, fourth quarter if you're sort of saying price is 5% down, log import prices 5% up. And you're probably seeing some seasonal volume weakness, I guess, maybe and it's about 5% last year. So anything to mitigate or offset those moving parts? Andreas Ewertz: Yes. So but on the solid wood products, I mean, as Ulf said, the prices will go down 5% and also the log will continue to increase a bit, but of course, continuing to focus on cost and what we can affect. Andrew Jones: Okay. And just 1 question just about the structural change. On kraftliner, I mean, you've kind of talked about the market being more balanced in kraftliner, obviously compared to testliner, but I mean, how -- why can the actual premium kraftliner and testliner fee in the medium term given the sort of substitution potential, I'm curious like to see whether that premium can be maintained in the near-ish term. Ulf Larsson: It's hard to say. I mean, the delta just now is EUR 280 or something like that. So that is a rather wide gap. And I guess if customers -- if they can substitute, they will substitute. And we see the same trend in -- we have the same question always in softwood and hardwood pulp. But the same answer, I mean, if customers, if they can substitute, they will do it because if something is cheaper, of course, they will use that instead. So I guess my perspective is more that I think we will at least remain on rather high delta between testliner and test recycled products and base products and virgin-based products as virgin fiber will be a scare resource going forward. So strategically, I guess, we will widen this gap, which we have also seen in the past years. So I think that will remain, honestly. And also, when you look at the capacity increase. I mean, the absolute main part capacity is coming in the recycled business. But in order to get raw material to the recycled business, you must have some virgin-based production. Operator: And we'll now take our next question from Pallav Mittal of Barclays. Pallav Mittal: Pallav Mittal on behalf of Gaurav Jain. So a few questions. Firstly, you and your peers have all highlighted good availability of pulpwood because of which we are now seeing this decline in pricing. And now given demand is weak and there are a number of production curtailments, how do you think these pulpwood costs could change if you start seeing some sort of improvement in demand? Ulf Larsson: Then, of course, it might be so that you have bottleneck again in raw material supply. So again, to have a stable long-term increase in the market, then the consumption must come up, the demand must come up. So that's the simple answer. And I mean, then it might be so that if -- when sawlog prices, if they come down, but pulpwood prices, when they come down, then it might be so that you see additional capacity coming on stream. And by that, of course, the supply will increase for a while. And if then the demand is not picking up, then, of course, you will have a pressure in the market again. So it is as easy as that. It's always a question about supply-demand. Andreas Ewertz: And your question on -- I mean, of course, if demand for the finished product goes up and the production goes up, that will, of course, increase the demand for wood raw material, which is already has been tight. Pallav Mittal: Sure. And then if I can ask something on CTMP. So you did mention that CTMP prices have declined in Europe, and now we are seeing new capacity in China as well. But does that impact your CTMP ramp-up? Ulf Larsson: I mean, as it is just now, we have a rather profitable business within Europe in CTMP. But as you say, I mean, we have very -- the margin is not too big in Asia. So yes, in that perspective, we are maybe in -- it's always a marginal calculation. So if we have days with high electricity price or if not now, but before when we saw that we had scarce situation when it comes to pulpwood. I mean then we -- of course, the first production site, we took containers in was in Ortviken and CTMP. So as it is just now, we are a little bit more focused on fine-tuning, I mean, also try to validate products for the European market and so on. So it is very small or from time to time, negative market going from Sweden over to Asia in CTMP as it is just now. Operator: Thank you. That was our last question. I will now hand it back to the host for closing remarks. Ulf Larsson: Thank you, and that concludes our presentation of the third quarter results. We'll come back in January for our full year report. Thank you for watching, and thank you for listening.
Operator: Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the First Hawaiian, Inc. Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Kevin Haseyama, Investor Relations Manager. Please go ahead, sir. Kevin Haseyama: Thank you, Jonathan, and thank you, everyone, for joining us as we review our financial results for the third quarter of 2025. With me today are Bob Harrison, Chairman, President and CEO; Jamie Moses, CFO; and Lee Nakamura, Chief Risk Officer. We have prepared a slide presentation that we will refer to in our remarks today. The presentation is available for downloading and viewing on our website at fhb.com in the Investor Relations section. During today's call, we will be making forward-looking statements, so please refer to our Slide 1 for our safe harbor statement. We may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. The appendix to this presentation contains reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measurements to the most directly comparable GAAP measurements. And now I'll turn the call over to Bob. Robert Harrison: Hello, everyone. Thank you, and thanks for joining us today, and I'll start by giving a quick overview of the local economy. The state unemployment rate continued to drift lower and was at 2.7% in August compared to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Through August, total visitor arrivals were up 0.7% compared to last year as strength in the U.S. Mainland arrivals more than offset weaknesses in Japanese and Canadian arrivals. Year-to-date, visitor spending was $4.6 billion, up 4.5% compared to the same period of last year. The housing market remains stable. The median single-family sales price on Oahu was $1.2 million in September, up 3.8% from last year. The median condo sales price on Oahu for September was $509,000, down 1.7% from the prior year. Before we move on, I wanted to discuss the federal government shutdown, and it's too early to measure the full impact on the Hawaii economy, but with a large civilian federal workforce, we expect that many families will begin to face financial hardship. Through the Hawaii Bankers Association, all the local banks have asked affected families to contact their local bank to discuss available relief measures. Turning to Slide 2. We had another strong quarter as net income increased compared to the second quarter. The improvement relative to the prior quarter was driven by higher net interest and noninterest income, partially offset by a higher effective tax rate. As you might recall, our second quarter results included the impact from a change in California tax law, which resulted in a net benefit of $5.1 million last quarter. The effective tax rate in the third quarter returned to a more normalized 23.2%. Turning to Slide 3. The balance sheet remains solid as we continue to be well capitalized with ample liquidity. We held the investment portfolio relatively flat and loans declined by $223 million. Average deposits were higher during the quarter, and we saw a surge at the end of the quarter due to inflows in public operating accounts, and Jamie will cover this in more detail in a little bit. We also repaid the $250 million FHLB advance that matured in September. And during the quarter, we repurchased about 965,000 shares at a total cost of $24 million. We have $26 million of remaining authorization under the approved 2025 stock repurchase plan. Turning to Slide 4. Total loans declined by about $223 million in the quarter. The decline was primarily in C&I. Dealer flooring balances fell by $146 million and paydown on lines of credit by several Hawaii corporate borrowers added about $130 million to the decline in the C&I balances. We're seeing strong originations so far in the fourth quarter and expect to end the year about flat to year-end 2024. Now I'll turn it over to Jamie. James Moses: Thanks, Bob. Turning to Slide 5. Total deposits increased about $500 million in the third quarter. Commercial deposits increased $135 million and were partially offset by a $43 million decline in retail deposits in the quarter. The decline in retail deposits seems to be largely due to seasonality, where we have seen a pattern of declining balances in the third quarter, followed by growth in the fourth quarter. Total public deposits increased by $406 million, and all of that growth was in operating accounts. There was no change in the balance of public time deposits. In the fourth quarter, we expect seasonal increases in both retail and commercial deposits, while seeing outflows in public deposits. The total cost of deposits fell by 1 basis point and the ratio of noninterest-bearing deposits to total deposits was a strong 33%. On Slide 6, net interest income was $169.3 million, $5.7 million higher than the prior quarter. The NIM in the second -- third quarter was 3.19%, up 8 basis points compared to the prior quarter. The increase in the margin was primarily driven by higher asset yields as well as some nonrecurring items such as loan fees. The run rate NIM for the month of September was 3.16%, and we continue to expect positive NIM momentum in the fourth quarter, and our current thinking is that the margin will advance a few basis points from the September NIM. This guidance reflects the impact of our fourth quarter loan and deposit outlook and additional 25 basis point rate cuts in both October and December. Turning to Slide 7. Noninterest income was $57.1 million in the quarter. Noninterest income benefited from higher BOLI income due to favorable market movements and swap income. We continue to expect the normalized run rate of noninterest income will be about $54 million per quarter. There were no unusual expense items in the third quarter. And based on our year-to-date expenses, we now expect that full year expenses will come in below our most recent outlook of $506 million. And now I'll turn it over to Lee. Lea Nakamura: Thank you, Jamie. Moving to Slide 8. The bank continued to maintain its strong credit performance and healthy credit metrics in the third quarter. Credit risk remains low, stable and well within our expectations. We are not observing any broad signs of weakness across either the consumer or commercial books. Classified assets increased $30.1 million due primarily to a single borrower, who is a long-time customer that we know well and are continuing to work closely with. Quarter-to-date net charge-offs were $4.2 million or 12 basis points of total loans and leases. Year-to-date net charge-offs were $11.3 million. Our annualized year-to-date net charge-off rate was 11 basis points or 1 basis point higher than in the second quarter. NPAs and 90-day past due loans were 26 basis points at the end of the third quarter, up 3 basis points from the prior quarter, resulting from a slight increase in nonaccruals. Moving to Slide 9. We show our third quarter allowance for credit losses broken out by disclosure segment. The bank recorded a $4.5 million provision in the third quarter. The asset ACL decreased by $2.6 million to $165.30 million with coverage remaining at 117 basis points of total loans and leases. We believe that we continue to be conservatively reserved and prepared for a wide range of outcomes. And now we would be very happy to take your questions. Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of David Feaster from Raymond James. David Feaster: I wanted to talk on just kind of the growth outlook. I mean, obviously, we've had some dealer floor plan with a headwind, some just natural declines in C&I. I was hoping you could first maybe touch on kind of how the pipeline is shaping up, demand that you're seeing and other opportunities that you'd be interested in helping accelerate organic growth, whether it's -- is there any appetite for full purchases or C&Is? Just kind of curious kind of your thoughts on, again, what are you seeing now in the pipeline and demand and organic growth and other opportunities to accelerate that? Robert Harrison: David, this is Bob. I'll maybe start off, hand off to Jamie. So yes, the third quarter was a little unusual in that we saw some pretty significant paydowns in dealer floor plan. Part of that was one of our customers sold several franchises. So that impacted that negatively. But overall, we're still very bullish in that business. We're seeing very strong production in the pipeline. There are some of that's already closed for the fourth quarter. Some of that's C&I, a lot of that is CRE. So we think we're going to have a very strong fourth quarter. And as we look to the future, we have considered pool purchases, but maybe I'll ask Jamie to just comment on that. James Moses: Yes. Thanks, Bob. I think we're looking at just in totality, as Bob said, I think we're looking at being able to get back to flat at the end of '25, roughly to where we were at the end of '24, which speaks to the strength of the pipeline that we see today. But to the broader question of pools and purchases, I think we always look at things. And to the extent that we feel like we have some level of expertise or knowledge in particular areas, we look maybe to carve out things that we have expertise in. So for example, maybe like a residential pool of Hawaii loans, right, might be something where we would think the long and hard about purchasing or if there are opportunities around properties in Hawaii that we might look at as well. So for the most part, we see where that we want to grow loans, but we're really looking for areas where we have some sort of expertise or niche knowledge around in order to be able to do that. David Feaster: Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just -- I mean, the core deposit growth was tremendous. I was hoping you could maybe touch on a bit. You talked on some continued growth in core deposits. Obviously, there's some seasonality that you alluded to. But could you talk about where you're having success driving core deposit growth? And then just, again, the good and the bad of that is we built liquidity. Like how do you think about deploying some of that liquidity in the coming months? James Moses: Yes. Thanks, Dave. So I guess we're going to expect that our deposit total balance is probably going to be like roughly flat at the end of the year to where we are today. And that mix is going to shift a little bit from -- we expect to see some of our public deposits kind of run out here in the fourth quarter, but sort of replaced by retail and commercial deposits. So where we're having success really is our retail teams and our commercial teams are really out there and really talking to our customers and doing a really good job of maintaining, strengthening relationships in the community. And I think we're really trying to focus on that relationship activity. And so we've had a lot of success with that, and that's due to the efforts of our retail and commercial teams primarily out here on the ground. Robert Harrison: And to add to Jamie's answer, as far as the liquidity that we have, we have been -- we are no longer letting the investment portfolio run down. So we're holding that flat. So we have kind of restarted some purchases after a number of years of letting it run down. So we're keeping that relatively flat with similar duration and very similar categories of securities that we're looking at to purchase. David Feaster: Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just last 1 for me. I appreciate the margin commentary I mean, look, you're naturally rate sensitive just given the strength of your core deposit base and the floating rate nature of some of your loans. Just kind of curious I mean there's a lot of moving parts in here, right? You got liquidity deployment and all -- there's a lot of moving parts. But I'm just kind of curious, first, how do you think about managing deposit costs as the Fed cuts? And then just given the tailwinds from back book repricing, remixing and some of the liquidity deployment that we're talking about, do you think that we can see the margin continue to expand even with Fed cuts next year? James Moses: I think Dave, that depends kind of on the timing and the magnitude of those cuts. I think that would -- that is ultimately by the end of the year, it could be a challenge to see NIM expansion at the end of the year. But for now, I think, for now... Robert Harrison: End of the year and then 2026. James Moses: That's right. Yes. But for now, what we see is that we have sufficient loan growth and sufficient loan growth just sort of cover this, right? So we're still -- we're looking at -- we're looking at $1 billion of cash flows over the next 12 months. At like -- we'll call that like a 125 basis point spread right now to loans that we're putting back on the books. And we have a 200 to 250 basis point spread on the investment portfolio, right now that we're sort of -- that we're keeping flat. So there are a lot of underlying dynamics. And of course, those spreads will decrease, right, the more the Fed decreases as well. But I think the trajectory for now looks like we can still support increasing expansion of the margin. But of course, there will be a natural spot. I think that's maybe like 1% or so from now. So 4 to 5 rate cuts, something like that. There'll be a natural floor to our ability to drive out further decreases in the deposit book. So good and bad news, right? We got a great deposit base, but it can only go so low, right? There's a floor on that. And so I think there is opportunity to continue to expand the NIM. And again, I think that is going to be largely dependent on our ability to generate loans. Operator: And our next question comes from the line of Charlie Driscoll from KBW. Charles Driscoll: This is Charlie on for Kelly Motta, if you could remind us of your capital priorities, how you're viewing the buyback? And from an a perspective, the environment is obviously heating up. Just remind us of your strategy on that front? Robert Harrison: Yes. Thanks, Charlie. So the capital priorities continue to be the same. We'd love to -- we're doing all the loans that fit our credit box and profile. We want to do all those that we can -- and we have a share buyback authority of $100 million. You see that we've done $74 million so far, and the rest of that is going to depend on, I'll call it, market conditions for sure. And I think the dividend is pretty good yields kind of a place. And also just in terms of the ratio of earnings that we pay out is relatively high. So probably not going to see an increase in the dividend or anything like that as part of that at the moment. Charles Driscoll: That's helpful. And then I guess, like circling back to the deposit rate conversation. The pricing has been rational and anticipating some cuts, like we've been hearing some changes in expectations from bank. Maybe just put some numbers around how you're thinking about betas on the way down? Robert Harrison: Yes. So Charlie, we tend to talk about it as beta on our rate-sensitive portfolio. So we continue to have roughly $4.5 billion rate-sensitive deposit portfolio. We've been very successful in -- with past rate cuts. We're talking maybe 90%, 95% betas on that portfolio relative to a Fed rate cut. We think that we're -- that drives a little bit lower and it gets successively lower for each rate cut that we have, but I think right now, I think about maybe like a 90% beta on the next rate cut, 88% on the next 1 after that, 85%, something like that. So we -- we still think we have a range there where we can drive deposit costs lower of course, when the Fed cuts rates as well. So it's a decreasing ability to do that for sure, but still relatively high at the moment. Charles Driscoll: Great. And then I guess, just like a little bit of detail with the margin expansion and the 50 bps of additional costs, are you assuming any loan purchases in that or... James Moses: No loan purchases in that. That's just what we're looking at in terms of looking at our pipelines and talking with the teams over the past month or so, we just expect to have really strong loan growth here in the fourth quarter. Operator: And our next question comes from the line of Anthony Elian from JPMorgan. Anthony Elian: Jamie, just a follow-up on NIM. Just a follow-up on NIM. Slide 5 to 6, you saw a really nice tailwind from loan repricing and looks like every 1 of your loan yields increased from the prior quarter. I'm just wondering how much of a tailwind is left from loan repricing, maybe in 4Q and beyond, just given the outlook for rate cuts on the forward curve? James Moses: Yes. So I think there's still a tailwind there. I guess I'll start with that. But then as we look out, we have $1 billion of fixed rate cash flows coming off of the portfolio over the next 12 months. And right now, we think that, that's repricing higher at like a 125 basis point spread at the moment. So there's still a pretty significant tailwind there. Now the 125 basis points, that's an average. And more the Fed cuts, the tighter that spread gets for sure. But there is still an ability to reprice those cash flows higher. On the investment portfolio, where we're seeing $500 million to $600 million of runoff over the next 12 months, we're getting like a 225 to 250 basis point spread on those purchases. So there's still a really significant sort of balance sheet role impact that we're seeing. That should be a tailwind not only in the fourth quarter, but into the first and second quarters as well. Now again, all of this is dependent upon being able to replace those cash flows with loan growth. And we think we can do that. but it will be dependent upon that sort of loan growth trajectory. And to the extent that we don't get the loan growth, we would consider other things we would consider maybe increasing the size of the investment portfolio. It's not our preferred option. But there are things that we would do to manage the balance sheet and to try to manage that NIM to continued expansion or at least sort of trying to keep it flat as we get those third and fourth and fifth anticipated rate cuts. Anthony Elian: Okay. And then my follow-up, I think you pointed to $54 million of fee income in 4Q. Just what are the areas or headwinds you expect to decline this quarter? Is it just the 2 items you call out on Slide 7. James Moses: Yes. I think that's right, Tony. Yes. It's not really headwinds. It's just we kind of got some good positive surprises here in the third quarter and wouldn't necessarily expect that to continue into the fourth. Robert Harrison: Yes. And to add to that, we have been kind of messaging more in the 51% to 52% range. And now just given the strength of the overall fee business, we're moving that up to 54% as kind of our expected run rate. Operator: And our next question comes from the line of Matthew Clark from Piper Sandler. Matthew Clark: Just to close out the NIM discussion, do you have the spot rate on deposits at the end of September? James Moses: That was 136 basis points end of September. Matthew Clark: Okay. And then the negative migration you saw in substandard this quarter. Can you just speak to what drove that increase? Lea Nakamura: So it's primarily that single loan to our long-time customers. And we're not really worried about loss or anything like that. We work closely with the customer. We just feel it's prudent to continue to update the ratings as we see the financials. Matthew Clark: Okay. I may have missed it, but the type of customer and the situation there? Robert Harrison: We didn't share that one, Matt. So we'd rather not. It's a small town. Matthew Clark: Understood. And then just on the capital question. I don't think you finished up on the M&A piece. But -- and again, I may have missed it, but just any updated comment on M&A discussions you might be having, whether or not things have changed materially since last quarter. Robert Harrison: No, unchanged. We're still open to talking to people and we certainly consider the right opportunity, but no change from previous guidance and discussion. Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Timur Braziler from Wells Fargo. Timur Braziler: Jamie, your comment on total deposits, I want to make sure I heard that right. Is it flat for 4Q or flat for the year? James Moses: It's flat third quarter to fourth quarter. So we expect public to run out in the fourth quarter a little bit, while we increased retail and commercial. Timur Braziler: And then maybe back to Matt's last question. Just more specifically, Mainland M&A. It sounds like that's been something that's at least on the table more recently? Just is that still the case? And maybe just remind us if that is the case, kind of what you'd be looking at as far as criteria goes? Robert Harrison: No change to what I said. Timur, I think the only thing would be it would only be mainland M&A for us because with our HHI market share here, there's nothing we'd be able to do in Hawaii. So but no change. We're certainly open to talking to people and would consider the right opportunity. Timur Braziler: Okay. That's a good point. And then, Bob, your starting comment on expecting many families will face potentially some real hard ships here from a prolonged government shutdown. I guess that comment and then looking at the last few UHERO report, which is calling for a mild recession over the course of the next year. I mean is that any different really from kind of the operating trends on the island over these last couple of years? Does that change the way that you guys are thinking about the local economy and, I guess, more pointed just how much of that is already factored in, in the reserving that you have, particularly on the consumer side. Robert Harrison: Yes. Maybe I'll start and ask Lee, if she has any additional comments. Really no change. We think that the local economy is resilient. I mean people are not the first time this has happened. It's been a little while since there's been a shutdown that's affected salaries and all that. But we just want to make sure, and that's why we want to do it with all the banks here. I want to make sure we're open and people know they can approach us if there's a need. But we've had just very few inquiries, Lee, maybe if you have any additional comments. Lea Nakamura: Not really. We haven't really seen any effects in the credit metrics yet. And -- but we're always cautious and we always take it into consideration, when we try to figure out what the right valuation is for the ACL. Robert Harrison: And on that, I mean, to speak to consumer credit metrics. Lee did mentioned it earlier, but the 2 that tend to pop up soonest is credit cards and indirect and they're doing quite well. So really no -- nothing observable at this point, Timur. Operator: And our next question comes from the line of Jared Shaw from Barclays. Jared David Shaw: Everybody. Following up on that, when you look at the impact of federal spending apart from military in Hawaii. Do you -- are you concerned at all that it could be impacted by reshifting of federal priorities? Or is it still pretty heavily defense focused. So while we're dealing with the shutdown now, you still feel that's not going to change the long-term contribution of federal government spending into Hawaii? Robert Harrison: Yes, Jared, this is Bob. Totally agree. The long-term trend is defense focused, and it's going to be very strong. I'm heading down to Guam for next week, and the spend there is phenomenal and the projects on deck here are very, very strong. So we're not expecting that our core federal employee workforce is pretty stable. The largest employer being the Pearl Harbor and naval shipyard, which is -- and has been identified as a key resource in the Navy. So really stable to improving, I guess, would be the long-term view. Jared David Shaw: Okay. And then in conversations with your floor plan dealers, what's their expectation for sort of auto sale volume going into the next year? Are they -- are they thinking that there's going to be a slowdown in purchase activity? And is that incrementally, I guess, better for you with floor plans if inventories stay around longer? Robert Harrison: Certainly, we have really great customers with strong credit, so we'd love to see higher balances with those same customers. The discussions haven't been as much around next year. It's really been more topical about tariffs and the impacts of tariffs and different manufacturers are picking up some of the impacts of those additional costs. Others, I think we'll start based on the conversations we're having, we'll start to soon start passing those through to customers. And so there's a fair amount of uncertainty still on the end impact of the tariffs that started at the beginning of this year and what consumers will do with potentially higher price points and how that will affect demand. If it slows down demand, maybe not in the next year, but even into the fourth quarter first and second quarters of 2026. That would definitely help us. Jared David Shaw: Okay. And then just finally for me. Have you seen any change in sort of pricing behavior from some of the change in ownership of other Hawaii competitors over the last year. It sounded like earlier in the year, there wasn't really any big change, but are you seeing any change in how they're approaching pricing in the markets? James Moses: Yes. We haven't seen any change in the market as far as competitive dynamics or pricing. Operator: And our next question comes from the line of Janet Lee from TD Securities. Sun Young Lee: Hello. Going back to M&A, just quickly, I know you guys touched upon it just a few times on this call. But can you remind us what is your stance -- what is your current stance on that M&A -- potential M&A opportunity if you are looking to -- you're considering opportunities? Like what would be -- what would make sense in the Mainland? Robert Harrison: Really nothing to add to our earlier comments, I guess the only thing would be in the Western states. It's not that we're going to go center or East. But it's just -- we're open to talking to people and we're considering the right opportunity and really nothing more to share than that at this time. Sun Young Lee: Okay. Got it. Fair. I think people are entertaining the idea of resi mortgage coming back if the rate comes down to the 5 handle, is was that something that would be helpful to your market or perhaps not because it's more of a supply issue. How should I think about the positive impact from that point on your resi? James Moses: Yes, Janet, it's a good question. I think that the lower the rates go, just the more activity you will see. You are correct that there is some sort of supply constraints around that for sure. But I think it will be helpful for balances. I think that there's -- that there should be some good opportunities there. So yes, I mean, I think, ultimately, for the mortgage business, in particular, if you -- if the rates go a little bit lower, we could see some increased activity in that area, and that should be constructive. Sun Young Lee: Got it. And apologies if this was already covered, but the paydown on $130 million of paydown on corporate lines, is that -- was that just seasonality that is coming back or just one-off? Or is it really a big quarter for paydowns? Robert Harrison: No, it wasn't necessarily seasonally. These were earlier draws for specific things, and now that that's done, they're getting repaid. It's it was odd in that several happened in the same quarter, but there is nothing unusual about the borrowing and repayment. It's just -- just all kind of lend -- the draws weren't in the same quarter, but the paydowns were. So that's why we didn't call it out on the way up, but we're calling it out when it got repaid. Operator: [Operator Instructions] And this does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Kevin Haseyama for any further remarks. Kevin Haseyama: Thank you. We appreciate your interest in First Hawaiian, and please feel free to contact me if you have any additional questions. Thanks again for joining us, and have a good weekend. Operator: Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.
Operator: Greetings, and welcome to the OMA Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Emmanuel Camacho, Investor Relations Officer for OMA. Thank you. You may begin. Emmanuel Camacho: Thank you, Melissa. Hello, everyone, and welcome to OMA's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. We're delighted to have you join us today as we discuss the company's performance and financial results for the past quarter. Joining us today are CEO, Ricardo Duenas; and CFO, Ruffo Pérez Pliego. Please be reminded that certain statements made during the course of our discussion today may constitute forward-looking statements, which are based on current management expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially, including factors that may be beyond our control. And now I'll turn the call over to Ricardo Duenas for his opening remarks. Ricardo Duenas: Thank you, Emmanuel. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. This morning, Ruffo and I will review our operational performance and financial results. And finally, we will be pleased to answer your questions. In the third quarter of this year, OMA's passenger traffic totaled 7.6 million passengers, an 8% increase year-over-year. Seat capacity increased by 11% during the quarter. On the domestic front, passenger traffic grew by 7%, driven primarily by the Monterrey Airport, which saw increases on routes to the metropolitan area of Mexico City, mainly to Toluca Airport, Bajio, Puerto Vallarta, Mérida and Querétaro. These routes collectively added over 300,000 passengers during the quarter, representing 68% of the total domestic passenger growth. International passenger traffic increased by 11%, mainly driven by Monterrey on the route to San Francisco, San Luis Potosi with higher traffic on the routes to Atlanta and Dallas and Tampico on the route to Dallas. Together, these routes added more than 47,000 passengers during the quarter, accounting for 46% of the total international passenger growth. Moving on to OMA's third quarter financial highlights. Aeronautical revenues increased 11% with aeronautical revenue per passenger rising 3% in the quarter. Commercial revenues grew by 7% compared to the third quarter of '24 and commercial revenue per passenger stood at MXN 60. Commercial revenue growth was mainly driven by parking, restaurants, VIP lounges and retail, mainly as a result of higher penetration and an increase in passenger traffic. Occupancy rate for commercial space stood at 96% at the end of the quarter. On the diversification front, revenues increased 8%, with Industrial Services contributing most of this growth, mainly because of additional square meters leased in our industrial park as compared to the third quarter of '24 and contractual increases to rents. OMA's third quarter adjusted EBITDA increased by 9% to MXN 2.7 billion with a margin of 74.8%. On the capital expenditures front, total investments in the quarter, including MDP investments, major maintenance and strategic investments were MXN 472 million. Finally, in relation to the negotiation process of our next Master Development Program discussion with the AFAC remain underway. We submitted our proposed Master Development Program for the '26-'30 period at the end of June, and the process remains on track. During the quarter, we continued addressing AFAC's technical observations and advancing the validation of investment projects in accordance with the schedule agreed with the authority. We continue to expect the final resolution and publication of results during December. Our expectations regarding the overall investment level remain at committed levels of MDP investment similar in real terms to the level of the previous '21-'25 MDP and maximum tariff increase in the low single digits. I would now like to turn the call over to Ruffo Pérez Pliego, who will discuss our financial highlights for the quarter. Ruffo Pérez del Castillo: Thank you, Ricardo, and good morning, everyone. I will briefly go over our financial results for the quarter, and then we will open the call for your questions. Aeronautical revenues increased 10.6% relative to 3Q '24, mainly due to the increase in passenger traffic as well as higher aeronautical yields. Non-aeronautical revenues increased 7.3%. Commercial revenues increased 7.0%. The line items with the highest growth were parking, restaurants, VIP lounges and retail. Parking grew by 9.4%, mainly as a result of higher passenger traffic. Restaurants and retail increased 9.8% and 8.2%, respectively, both driven by higher passenger traffic as well as the previously opened or replaced outlets. VIP lounges rose 9.9%, mainly due to higher market penetration, primarily in Monterrey as well as the increase in passenger traffic. Diversification activities increased 8.2%. Industrial Services, which relates to the operation of the industrial park contributed most to the growth in the quarter, increasing by 53%, resulting from higher square meters leased as compared to third quarter of '24 as well as contractual rent increases. Total aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenues grew 9.8% to MXN 3.5 billion in the quarter. Construction revenues amounted to MXN 382 million in the third quarter. The cost of airport services and G&A expense increased 14.4% versus 3Q '24, primarily due to the following line items: Payroll grew by 10.7%, mainly as a result of annual wage increases as well as higher headcount as compared to the third quarter of '24. Other costs and expenses increased by 22% due primarily to higher IT-related requirements and transportation services. Contracted services expense rose 16.4%, mainly due to higher cost of security and cleaning services following contract renewals in prior quarters, reflecting the inflationary pressures and tight labor market conditions in Mexico. Minor maintenance increased 19.8%, primarily due to timing effect of the works performed. Concession tax increased by 10.4% to MXN 290 million, in line with revenue growth. Major maintenance provision was MXN 28 million as compared to MXN 75 million in the same quarter of last year. OMA's third quarter adjusted EBITDA grew 9.0% to MXN 2.7 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin reached 74.8%. Our financing expense increased by 9.8% to MXN 299 million, mainly driven by higher interest expense as a result of higher average debt levels. Consolidated net income was MXN 1.5 billion in the quarter, an increase of 9.1% versus the same quarter of last year. Turning to our cash position. Cash generated from operating activities in the third quarter amounted to MXN 1.9 billion and investing and financing activities used cash for MXN 480 million and MXN 365 million, respectively. As a result, our cash position at the end of the quarter stood at MXN 4.4 billion. At the end of September, total debt amounted to MXN 13.6 billion, and we maintained a solid financial position, ending the quarter with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.9x. This concludes our prepared remarks. Melissa, please open the call for questions. Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Pablo Ricalde with Itaú. Pablo Ricalde Martinez: I have one question regarding your traffic expectations maybe for the fourth quarter and maybe your early thoughts on 2026, taking into account the World Cup. Ricardo Duenas: Yes. Thank you, Pablo. So we're looking for the rest of the year to finish in our traffic overall for the year between 7% and 8% growth. And our expectation at this point in time for next year, it's traffic to be in the low to mid-single digits for next year growth. Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Enrique Cantu with GBM. Unknown Analyst: I have a quick question. Commercial revenue per pass declined this quarter, the first contraction since early 2023. Could you elaborate on the main drivers behind this softness? And how do you plan to reaccelerate this [ known ] area of growth? Ruffo Pérez del Castillo: Enrique, so yes, commercial revenue per passenger mainly reflects -- in the quarter reflects the impact of onetime revenues recorded in the previous year. And in the following quarters, we expect commercial revenues per passengers to gradually increase in line with inflation from current levels. Unknown Analyst: Okay. Perfect. And just another one, if I may. SG&A and utility costs rose this quarter, eroding margins despite strong top line growth. Do you view these cost pressures as temporary? Or should we expect a structurally higher cost base heading into 2026? Ricardo Duenas: Sorry, could you repeat that? Maybe you're too close to the microphone. Unknown Analyst: Yes, sorry. So it's regarding SG&A and utility costs. We saw that this quarter they erode margins. Do you view these cost pressures as temporary? Or should we expect this higher cost base heading into 2026? Ruffo Pérez del Castillo: So yes, as we mentioned, there are some specific line items that are facing some pressures like cleaning and security, where the total level of cost in the following quarters should be similar to the level of cost that we are facing right now. However, we do have started to analyze different alternatives to continue maintaining cost at check, and it's part of the history of the company to be very cost conscious, and we expect pressures not to be permanent. Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Gabriel Himelfarb with Scotiabank. Gabriel Himelfarb Mustri: A quick question on capital allocation. First, for the next MDP, I think you have mentioned that almost all the capital will go to Monterrey. It will be focused on, perhaps, increasing the capacity of the airport or developing more the commercial spaces, the commercial portion of the business? And my second question, are you seeking or have you considered expanding gap -- sorry, OMA's portfolio towards outside Mexico? Ricardo Duenas: Yes. Thank you, Gabriel. Regarding the last part, we're always looking for opportunities to expand internationally. At this point in time, we don't have a concrete transaction that we could share. In terms of the MDP, it's around half of the MDP will be allocated to Monterrey, given that half of the traffic is allocated in Monterrey. We're looking to expand in most of -- in capacity that will generate commercial opportunities as well. There's pavement, there's technology, there's environmental and sustainability projects as well. Operator: Thank you. There are no questions at this time. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Duenas for any final comments. Ricardo Duenas: We would like to thank you, everyone, for participating in today's call. We appreciate your insightful questions, engagement and continued support. Ruffo, Emmanuel and I remain available should you have any further questions or require additional information. Thank you once again, and have a great day. Operator: Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
Operator: Good morning, and welcome to the NatWest Group Q3 Results 2025 Management Presentation. Today's presentation will be hosted by CEO, Paul Thwaite; and CFO, Katie Murray. After the presentation, we will take questions. Paul Thwaite: Good morning, and thanks for joining us today. I'll start with a short introduction before I hand over to Katie to take you through the numbers. We have delivered another strong quarter as we continue to execute on our priorities of disciplined growth, bank wide simplification, together with managing our balance sheet and risk well. Though inflation is above the Bank of England's 2% target, the economy is growing, unemployment is low, wage growth is above the rate of inflation and businesses and households have relatively high levels of savings and liquidity. This is reflected in the levels of customer activity we're seeing across the bank. So let me start with the headlines for the first 9 months. Lending has grown 4.4% since the year-end to GBP 388 billion, in line with our annual growth rate of more than 4% over the past 6 years. Growth has been broad-based across our 3 businesses and we attracted a further 70,000 new customers in the quarter. Mortgage lending was up by more than GBP 5 billion for the first 9 months as we broadened our customer proposition with new offers for first-time buyers and family backed mortgages, and issued mortgages to landlords in collaboration with buy-to-let specialists, [indiscernible]. Unsecured lending grew GBP 2.9 billion or 17.3%, and we made good progress integrating our recently acquired Sainsbury's customers. They're now able to view their credit card, link their Nectar card and view their Nectar points from credit card spending via the NatWest app. In commercial and institutional, we delivered lending growth of GBP 7.9 billion or 5.5% across both our large corporate and institutional and commercial mid-market businesses. in areas such as infrastructure, social housing and sustainable finance. As the #1 lender to infrastructure, we are supporting many large-scale programs up and down the country. And we have delivered GBP 7.6 billion towards our 2030 group climate and transition finance target of GBP 200 billion announced in July. Deposits grew 0.8% to GBP 435 billion as we balance volume with value in a competitive market and as customers manage their savings across cash deposits and investments. And there's more customers across the bank chose to invest with us assets under management and administration have grown 14.5% to GBP 56 billion. This has contributed to growth in noninterest income, along with higher fees from payments, cards and good performance in our currencies and capital markets business. This customer activity has resulted in a strong financial performance. Income grew to GBP 12.1 billion, 12.5% higher than the first 9 months last year. Costs were up 2.5% at GBP 5.9 billion resulting in operating profit of GBP 5.8 billion and attributable profit of GBP 4.1 billion. Our return on tangible equity was 19.5%. Given the strength of our performance, we are revising our full year guidance for income to around GBP 16.3 billion and for returns to greater than 18%. We continue to make good progress on both simplification and capital management. We have reduced the cost/income ratio by 5 percentage points to 47.8%. And and we generated 202 basis points of capital for the 9 months and ended the third quarter with a CET1 ratio of 14.2%. This strong capital generation allows us not just to support customers but to invest in the business and deliver attractive returns to shareholders. As you know, we announced a new share buyback of GBP 750 million at the half year, of which 50% has now been carried out. and we expect to complete the buyback by our full year results. Earnings per share have grown 32.4% year-on-year and TNAV per share is at 14.6% at 362p. So a strong performance for the first 9 months. I'll hand over to Katie to take you through the numbers for the third quarter. Katie Murray: Thank you, Paul. I'll talk about the third quarter using the second quarter as a comparator. Income, excluding all notable items, was up 3.9% at GBP 4.2 billion. Total income was up 8.2%, including GBP 166 million of notable income items. Operating expenses were 2.1% more at [indiscernible] due to lower litigation and conduct charges. And the impairment charge was GBP 153 million or 15 basis points of loans. Taken together, this delivered operating profit before tax of GBP 2.2 billion for the quarter and profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of GBP 1.6 billion. Our return on tangible equity was 22.3%. Turning now to income. Overall income, excluding notable items, grew 3.9% to GBP 4.2 billion. Across our 3 businesses, income increased by 2.5% or GBP 101 million. Net interest income grew 3% or GBP 94 million to GBP 3.3 billion. This was driven by further lending growth and margin expansion as tailwinds from the structural hedge and the benefit from the Sainsbury's portfolios for a full quarter more than offset the impact of the base rate cut in August. Net interest margin was up 9 basis points to 237, mainly due to deposit margin expansion and funding and other treasury activity. Noninterest income across the 3 businesses was up 0.8% compared with a strong second quarter. This was due to increased card fees in retail banking, higher investment management fees in private banking and wealth management. and a good performance in currencies and capital markets with heightened volatility. Given continued positive momentum and a clearer line of sight to the year-end, we have refined our income guidance and now expect full year total income, excluding notable items, to be around GBP 16.3 billion. We continue to assume 1 further base rate cut this year with rates reaching 3.75% by the year-end. This improved guidance alongside strong Q3 returns means we now expect return on tangible equity for the full year to be greater than 18%. Moving now to lending, where we have delivered another strong quarter of growth. Gross loans to customers across our 3 businesses increased by GBP 4.4 billion to GBP 388. 1 billion. with growth well balanced between personal and corporate customers across retail banking and private banking and wealth management, mortgage balance grew by GBP 1.7 billion, and our stock share remained stable at 12.6%. Unsecured balances increased by a further GBP 100 million, mainly in credit cards. In commercial and institutional, gross customer loans, excluding government schemes were up by GBP 3 billion. This includes GBP 1.6 billion across our commercial mid-market customers, in particular, in project finance, social housing and residential, commercial real estate as well as GBP 1.5 billion in corporate and institutions, mainly driven by infrastructure and funds lending. I'll now turn to deposits. These were broadly stable across our 3 businesses at GBP 435 billion. Retail banking deposit balances were down GBP 0.8 billion, with growth of GBP 0.6 billion in current accounts, more than offset by lower fixed-term saving balances following large maturities. Private banking balances that reduced by GBP 0.7 billion with flows into investments as customers diversify and manage their savings as well as tax payments made in July. We saw a small increase in commercial and institutional of GBP 0.4 billion, with higher balances in both commercial, mid-market and business banking. Deposit mix across the 3 businesses were broadly stable. Turning now to costs. We are pleased with our delivery of savings this year, which allows us to invest and accelerate our program of bank-wide simplification. Costs grew 1% to GBP 2 billion, including GBP 34 million of our guided onetime integration costs. This brings integration costs for the first 9 months to GBP 68 million. We remain on track for other operating expenses to be around GBP 8 billion for the full year. plus around GBP 100 million of onetime integration costs. This means you should expect expenses to be higher in the fourth quarter, driven by the annual bank levy and the timing of investment spend. I'd like to turn now to impairments. Our prime loan book is well diversified and continues to perform well. We are reporting a net impairment charge of GBP 153 million for the third quarter. equivalent to 15 basis points of loans on an annualized basis. Our post model adjustments for economic uncertainty of GBP 233 million are broadly unchanged. And following our usual review, our economic assumptions also remain unchanged. Overall, we are comfortable with our provisions and coverage, and we have no significant concerns about the credit portfolio at this time. Given the current performance of the book and the 17 basis points of impairments year-to-date, we continue to expect a lower impairment rate below 20 basis points for the full year. Turning now to capital. We ended the third quarter with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 14.2%, up 60 basis points on the second. We generated 101 basis points of capital before distributions, taking the 9-month total to 202 basis points. Strong third quarter earnings added 84 basis points and the reduction in risk-weighted assets contributed another 8 basis points. Risk-weighted assets decreased by GBP 1 billion to GBP 189.1 billion. GBP 0.9 billion of business movements which broadly reflects our lending growth and GBP 0.3 billion from CRD 4 model inflation were more than offset by a GBP 2.2 billion reduction as a result of RWA management. This brings our CET1 ratio before distributions to 14.6%. We accrued 50% of attributable profits for the ordinary dividend as usual, equivalent to 42 basis points of capital. We continue to expect RWAs of GBP 190 billion to GBP 195 billion at the year-end, with a greater impact from CRD4 expected in the fourth quarter. Turning now to guidance for 2025. We now expect income excluding notable items, to be around GBP 16.3 billion and return on tangible equity to be greater than 18%. Our cost impairment and RWA guidance remains unchanged. And with that, I'll hand back to Paul. Thank you. Paul Thwaite: Thank you, Katie. So to conclude, we're pleased to report another very strong quarter of income growth, profits, returns and capital generation. This has been driven by customer activity across all 3 of our businesses, leading to strong broad-based lending growth and robust fee income. Our continued focus on cost discipline has delivered meaningful operating leverage. And as we actively manage both our balance sheet and risk, the business remains well positioned to deliver strong shareholder returns. As you've heard, we have upgraded our full year income and returns guidance today. And we'll update you on our guidance for 2026 and share our new targets for 2028 at the full year in February. Many thanks. We'll now open it up for questions. Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Benjamin Caven-Roberts of Goldman Sachs. Benjamin Caven-Roberts: So 2 for me, please. First on deposits and second, on noninterest income. So on deposits, could you talk a bit about deposit momentum in the business? And in particular, you mentioned the retail fixed term outflows over the quarter. Could you talk a bit more about how much of that is reflecting conscious pricing decisions? And then looking ahead, the sort of trajectory for deposits going forward? And then on noninterest income, very strong even when adjusting out the notable items related to derivatives. Could you talk about momentum in that franchise and what business drivers you're particularly focused on looking ahead? Paul Thwaite: Thanks, Ben. Good to hear from you. So let's take them 1 by one. So on deposits, so big picture is up around GBP 3.5 billion, around 1% year-to-date. Different stories within the different businesses. I guess, we talked at the half year around the kind of ISA season and some of the -- get the confluence of debate around the future of ISA and how that led and some of the movements in the swap curves on the back of tariffs and how that led to different pricing. That period is behind us. There's been more normalized pricing since the kind of April, May. If you look at our 3 businesses, I'd say slightly different trends. I'll finish with retail because there's more to unpack there. On the commercial side, deposits are up, encouragingly, that's in kind of the business bank and commercial mid-market. That's good. Private bank cash deposits are down. A combination of things, July, we saw some tax payments -- but also we see more funds shift from cash deposits into securities and investments, which is a net positive trend. In retail, if you look at current account balances, they are up. So kind of operational balances, salary accounts, you can see that the numbers are up there. I think the details are in the disclosures. Instant Access is flat. -- where we've seen some reductions is in fixed term accounts. And that reflects a number of mature -- large maturities that we had during the quarter. We're pleased with our retention rates. They're running about 80%, 85%. But as you alluded to, given our LDR at 88%, LCR at 148% we're finding a right balance between value and volume. So we've been pretty dynamic, and we're focusing on where we see funding and customer value. So that's that's unpacking the deposit story for you. So different stories in different businesses, relatively stable given our overall funding profile, very focused on managing appropriately for value. On the second question, which is non-NII, yes, as you alluded to, we're pleased with the quarter, and we're pleased with the year-to-date. Good momentum in the areas that we've been focusing on. I mean it's quite broad-based actually, when you unpack it, cards, payments, but obviously good contribution within C&I from our markets business driven by the strong FX franchise and by the capital markets business. So we've had a strong quarter 3 there, probably slightly stronger than we expected when we spoke to you at the half year. We feel as if our focus on those areas, whether it's the market part of commercial institutional, whether it's our payments business. But also, as you can see in our wealth business, the fees from assets under management are increasing as well. So it feels like we've got good progress and good momentum on fees and it remains a strategic area of focus for us. Thanks, Ben. Operator: Our next question comes from Sheel Shah of JPMorgan. Sheel Shah: Great. Firstly, on the costs. You've reiterated your cost guidance for the year despite the strong third quarter performance. How should we think about cost growth going forward, given we have CPI going back towards 4%. You're clearly simplifying the bank internally. Do you think a 3% cost growth number is the right level for the bank? Or do you think that maybe understates your ability to manage the cost base? And then secondly, on capital, could you give us a steer on the CRD impact that we expect for the fourth quarter? And maybe thinking about the fourth quarter capital level, how are you thinking about operating in that 13% to 14% range? Is there anything preventing you from moving down towards the 13%? Or are you managing maybe for M&A or anything else maybe in the horizon that you're thinking about? Because this is clearly the strongest capital print we've had for the last maybe 3, 4 years or maybe 2 to 3 years for the bank overall. Paul Thwaite: Thanks, Sheel. Katie, I'll take the cost and then turn it over to you on the capital piece of that okay. Katie Murray: Yes. Paul Thwaite: On cost, Sheel, so as you say, it's a -- it's a strong year-to-date picture if you look at year-on-year comparisons. And obviously, we have the one-off in terms of the integration costs as well of Sainsbury's. I am pleased with the momentum we're getting on the simplification agenda. I think that's -- you can see that starting to bear fruit. It's also I think most pleasingly, it's a bit of a flywheel because it creates investment capacity to drive further transformation in the business. And it's not only cost out it's also improving customer experience and colleague experience as well. So as you alluded to, we're holding with the current year guidance, GBP 8 billion plus the GBP 100 million of integration costs, but we are pleased with the momentum on the agenda -- on the simplification agenda. I'm not going to be drawn on kind of 26 costs or future costs. We'll talk to you in February around '26 guidance and new '28 targets. But what I would say thematically is we still have a very significant focus on cost management, and we're a very high conviction on the simplification agenda. And to help put that in context a little bit for you to deliver the cost print that we are doing this year requires us to take more than 4% out of the kind of the underlying business. so that we can support the investment, the inflation-related changes, be they wages or tech contracts. So we've got good momentum in kind of taking that, driving that efficiency out. been able to invest, but also delivering good cost control. So that's the ethos going forward. And the levers that we're pulling those levers can still be pulled moving forward, whether that's continued acceleration of our digitization, streamlizing and modernizing the tech estate. Just by way of example, we decommission 24 platforms in retail so far this year, which is great. You've seen we've done a lot of work simplifying our operating model, whether it's in our wealth business, moving some of the support areas in Switzerland to the U.K. and India rationalizing our European footprint, legal entity footprint. and just some of the good organizational health measures. So it feels as though those levers that we've been pulling can continue to be pulled -- and then obviously, you lay over that some of the productivity benefits we're seeing from AI and those activities around customer contact, software engineering. So net-net, I'm not giving you a number for '26, but hopefully giving you a sense of how we're thinking about it and where the momentum is coming from, and therefore, our confidence in maintaining a good healthy cost profile going forward. Katie? Katie Murray: Perfect. Sure. So Sheel, I'll just start off talking a little bit with CRD for the interest on capital as well. So look, as you look at it, you're absolutely right. In the quarter, limited CRD4 impact. We are expecting the majority of that in Q4 and a little bit of that may even bleed into 2026. So when you think of our kind of RWAs from here, it's very much about the loan growth, the management actions as well as that more material impact of CRD4 coming in, in the fourth quarter. And then going forward, you're familiar with Basel 3.1 coming in in 2026. That is always important to remember that comes with a bit of a Pillar 2 reduction when it comes through in terms of capital. But when I think of kind of the RWAs is to kind of think of the absolute growth that we're talking about in the book, importantly, the mix of that growth, but also the kind of risk density that you see once we pass the CRD for and the Basel 3.1. And of course, obviously, the continuing strength of our management action program that we have. And then if you turn to kind of capital, clearly, a really strong print today, very pleased with the 101 basis points we did in the third quarter, 202 bps for the first 9 months. I mean a great result by any measure. We've always said that we're happy to operate down to that 13%. We do think about capital generation and when we think of it in terms of dividends and where we're going to land and things like's that, we do debate the sort of next sort of 6, 12 months as well because you've got to think about we really try to manage a consistent program of capital return back to the market, but also it mindful of that RWA generation that's coming, whether it be from regulatory change or the growth the growth within the book. And so as you -- I would kind of as you consider where we might land and what we might think about is think on those various points. Thanks very much, Sheel. Paul Thwaite: Thanks Sheel. Operator: Our next question comes from Aman Rakkar of Barclays. Aman Rakkar: I had 2 questions, please. I guess we're all probably singularly focused on 2026 at this stage. So particularly on income, love to kind of get your take on how we should think about the various drivers from here across I guess margin developments, clearly, loan growth continues to surprise positively, but any color you can provide on kind of the drivers of fee income from here would be really helpful. And I guess the second question was around your longer-term targets that hopefully you're going to present to the market in the new year. And to me, it looks like there is the underpinning of pretty decent operating leverage for a number of years here, not least because of the structural tailwind to '28 that you guys flagged. So I guess one for Paul really in terms of your view on structural operating leverage in your business on a multiyear view from here, how confident you are in that in terms of some of the levers you might want to pull -- and I guess, I'm ultimately interested in the RoTE output. For me, you're doing 18% this year, and there's no reason to think in my mind why you don't accrete quite nicely over and above that level as you realize that operating leverage. So any kind of color you can give on that basis would be really helpful. Paul Thwaite: Katie, do you want to take '26 and I'll talk about. Katie Murray: Perfect. That's great. Thanks, good to hear your voice. Look, we do continue to expect the income growth that we've seen throughout our guidance period, and we do remain confident in that growth trajectory beyond 2025. So as I look at 2026, there's probably a few things I would kind of guide you to. One, growth. I mean, we've talked about this a lot, but we've got a strong multiyear track record of growth across all 3 of our businesses. We outpaced the wider sector on that. if we look at the breadth of our business, we know that we're well placed to capture demand as it comes through, and we'll continue to deploy capital throughout 2026, and we do expect that growth to continue. Obviously, there's a mix of growth across both sides of the balance sheet, and that's very much a function of customer and competitor behavior. The hedge, I think you're all very familiar with the hedge these days. We've talked about it such a lot over this last year, but certainly, strong growth into 2026, over GBP 1 billion higher in absolute terms in 2025. I think that's well understood by all of you. Rate cuts, we do expect one further rate cut in Q1 after our plans still have a rate cut in November. So we get to a kind of terminal rate of 3.5%. And then you'll see the kind of averaging impact of the rates we've had this year coming through into 2026. Paul has already spoken on noninterest income and our confidence in that business, very much the strength of the kind of customer franchise, always dependent on customer volatility and -- sorry, customer activity and volatility, but it served us very well this year. But if I think of all of those trends together, Aman, they will continue beyond next year as well, obviously, with the exception of rate cuts as we believe we'll get to that terminal rate in 2026. But I'd agree with you, we feel quite well placed at the moment. Paul? Paul Thwaite: Thanks, Katie, and thanks, Aman. And yes, A, we've announced today that we'll share targets for '28 in February. So we've been very explicit on that. So we look forward to that session. But as you say, it's obvious we've got good momentum in the business, and that's predicated on strong operating leverage. If you look at today's numbers, we've got a 5% cost/income ratio improvement, and we've guided to over 9% jaws for the year. So a very strong proof point of the operating leverage that we've got in the current business model and business mix, which we have talked about previously. But as I said, I'm just very pleased that it's bearing fruit as the -- both the income growth and the simplification agenda comes through. as I said to Sheel's question, we are high conviction on the simplification agenda. The levers we are pulling are working, and we can see a path to continue to pull those levers, which should further support the operating leverage to link it to Katie's answer as we see the top line growth through the different aspects. It's our seventh year of growth above 4% on the lending side. So that gives us confidence there that we've got customer businesses that will capture demand and have grown above market growth levels over a multiyear track record. So that's what's going to inform our thinking as we go through. But the underlying thesis here is very tight management of costs that creates capacity to invest, growing the customer franchises, strong jaws, generates a lot of capital, over 100 basis points in the quarter, over 200 for the year, and that gives us confidence about the outlook. So hopefully, that gives you a sense how we're thinking about it. And obviously, we'll talk specific numbers in February. Thanks Aman. Operator: Our next question comes from Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley. Alvaro de Tejada: Hopefully, you can hear me okay. I guess the 2 bit follow-ups, but I'm interested. NatWest Markets continues to do very well and hold up very well. And I know there's a history there, and I suspect part of the cautious guidance has been on the limited visibility of the nature -- because of the nature of the business. But given it continues to perform pretty steadily, consensus has it down the contribution in 2026, and there's not a lot of growth medium term in noninterest income. Given the performance the last few years, can you sort of share your reflections on that business? How much is being cyclical versus what you changed in the business? And is that right to assume a normalization down medium term and next year in particular? And second, around loan growth, it continues to do very well. in corporate, I'm thinking now it was lumpy to start with in corporate and institutional, but it does look like it's much more spread out in mid-market now. Again, as we think about the next few quarters, how do you see that momentum? Should we think that this level of growth is sustainable? Paul Thwaite: Thanks, Alvaro. Katie, do you want to take the C&I kind of markets products question, and I'll take the wider lending. Katie Murray: Yes. No, absolutely. So I mean, Alvaro, it's interesting. Obviously, you've been with us for some time, and you've been on that journey in terms of NatWest Markets. And I think the real strategic important thing that kind of has happened really from the beginning of last year is actually the merging of C&I into into that kind of commercial and institutional business so that you have one team really delivering strategically for their customers. And we've really seen the benefit of that coming through. We've had very robust noninterest income. That -- there's been higher fee income coming through in payments and the strong performance from C&I is an important part of that. And it's really around the strategy that we've got of bringing more of the bank to more of our customers. And a result of that, we see -- we saw the strong demand for FX management and then really strong risk management as well against the backdrop of the volatile markets that was there. So really making sure that we were in place for our customers when they needed us in terms of the general kind of market activity. So I would say it is very much the outcome of that strategy of bringing that NatWest activity into the C&I franchise, making sure that we're there to deliver and meet the kind of customer activity as we go forward. And we would expect that to kind of continue from here. Volatility is a big part, of course. It's hard to call where that will land. Customer activity is critical, but we kind of -- we really do see that as a really strong basis going forward. I'd just remind you, as I often do on these calls, is when you're looking at noninterest income, it's always good to look at the 3 businesses. You do get a little bit of noise in the center as you move forward from here that will reduce a little bit as we go forward. But overall income outlook kind of is -- I think we're very pleased with it, and that's what's enabled us to upgrade our guidance for this year. And you've heard me talk around the confidence we have as we go into 2026 as well. Thanks, Alvaro. Paul? Paul Thwaite: Thanks, Katie. And Alvaro, I sense your question on lending was specifically around the commercial institutional business. And -- but just I think it's worth framing our, I guess, our lending growth and our lending opportunity more broadly before that. I say we've got a decent multiyear track record now of growing the 3 businesses. That's 7 years at above 4%. This year, it's currently running up GBP 16 billion. It's up 4.4%. So it's quite broad-based the growth. If you drop down into the commercial franchise, it's a good spot. The quarter 3 print and the growth of around GBP 3 billion is split between, I guess, the large corporates and the mid-market. It's pleasing to see the momentum in the commercial mid-market. You'll have heard me say before, I do think that's kind of a helpful proxy on the kind of wider U.K. environment. When you look at where the growth is coming from in the mid-market, -- you can see it in social housing. You can see it in certain parts of real estate. You can see it in parts of infrastructure. So again, it's quite broad-based. So lending as a total quantum, yes, strong, but the constituent businesses it's coming from is encouraging as well. Infrastructure is a big part of that. And what I'd say is I feel as if our commercial business is very well positioned to some of those bigger structural trends that we're seeing. So whether it is infrastructure, whether it's project finance, whether it's sort of the social housing agenda. So the kind of combination of the structural trends and the policy trends support those areas we are -- we have deep specialisms in and have had for quite a few years. So yes, encouraging, as you say. Thanks Alvaro. Operator: Our next question comes from Chris Cant of Autonomous. Christopher Cant: Can you hear me? Paul Thwaite: Yes, we can. Christopher Cant: Okay. It's still got a little mute icon on the screen, so I was a bit concerned. Paul Thwaite: Crystal clear. Christopher Cant: Just on loan growth, Paul, I mean, I think it's been an area where if I look at consensus, consensus has got 3% or less loan growth in over the next couple of years. It's been something that as a management team, you've typically been reluctant to sort of give an expectation on beyond saying you have a track record of growing quicker than the market. But as you think out to the next planning period, -- how are you thinking about that in absolute terms? I presume you have a view on how much growth you think the market is likely to see and you want to exceed that. But should we be thinking about 4% as a sort of reasonable expectation or in excess of 4% is a reasonable expectation, assuming no kind of macro volatility or blow up? And then on the returns target, please. So again, it's an area where you're a little bit different from your domestic peers. The last 2 return targets you've given, I guess, have been a little bit more of a through-the-cycle expectation where you would expect to hit them sort of regardless of what was happening to rates and the macro environment. Now that things have settled down from a, I guess, customer behavioral perspective, in particular, on the deposit front, are you going to be giving us a different flavor of return expectation when you're looking out to 2028? So will you be guiding on where you think the business will be in '28 with your base case assumption rather than a sort of a floor underpinning a broader range of potentially more downside scenarios around customer behavior and macro activity and so on? Paul Thwaite: Great. Okay. Thank you, Chris. So I'll take the second one quickly first. Obviously, we'll see you in February and talk about it. And obviously, some of the topics you alluded to are what we're thinking about as we go into February and we share '28 numbers. But obviously, we will lay out what assumptions we've made around those targets at that time. But it's a very active debate, as you rightly allude to. On the lending side, I think you characterized the position very well and very consistent with how we see it. We're very confident in the track record that we've had. Our ability to grow above market has been proven year-on-year. It does vary by business and market conditions as to as well. But that's what gives us confidence in terms of the outlook for the lending position. I'm not going to declare new targets or new deltas relative to market growth on the call. I think I've given quite enough color about, I guess, our historic track record and how we're thinking about the business going forward to hopefully give you a sense of confidence and optimism we have around the lending profile. Thanks Chris. Operator: Our next question comes from Jonathan Pierce of Jefferies. Jonathan Richard Pierce: I've got 2 questions. One is on the equity Tier 1 target moving forward. Is that something you'll potentially give us a bit more of an update on in February? Or are we going to have to wait until the back end of the year once Basel 3.1 is pretty much nailed down. I ask, of course, because the MDA is 11.6. I guess it drops 30 bps, something like that on Basel 3.1. And it feels like the scope to probably operate towards the lower end of your current range rather than the middle or the upper end of it. The second question is a bit more detailed, I'm afraid, around deferred tax assets. In the 9 months to date, the DTA deduction from capital has fallen by GBP 250 million, and it was GBP 100 million in the last quarter alone. So it's not an insignificant amount of capital build that's now coming from that DTA. So I just wondered if we should expect that sort of run rate to continue until the stock has run out a few years forward. I guess we should because RBS plc is now generating good profit and so on and so forth. And sorry, just a supplementary on that. The last 3 years, you bought back around GBP 300 million a year of unrecognized DTA back onto the balance sheet. Are we going to see the same again in the fourth quarter of this year, Katie? Paul Thwaite: Okay. Thanks, Jonathan. So Katie, why don't you lead out on the CET1? Katie Murray: And then I will get to... Paul Thwaite: And then we'll get to some of the DTI. Katie Murray: No, that's all right. It's one of my preferred specialist subjects, so I'll make you wait for the answers on that one just for a little bit longer. But on CET1 Look, there's a lot of things going on at the moment, Jonathan, with CET1, as you're very much aware. Obviously, the Bank of England is looking at their review of capital requirements. So we're looking forward to the FEC's update on that assessment. It's due to come out on December 2. So we'll see what comes through with that. Our approach on capital has always been to review it as part of our annual ICAP process and the risk appetite review that we do as well as working with the PRA on their kind of annual stress tests. And you're familiar with the numbers. We can see that our capital position has really improved over the last couple of years as we've derisked the business. We've also added a significant amount of capital into the business as a result of the RWA inflation that we've had. I think importantly, as part of the SREP process that we had this year that just came out in Q3. Our Pillar 2A there was reduced to -- by 17 basis points. which took our statutory minimum requirement to 11.6%. I do expect that number to reduce further once Basel 3.1 is implemented on the 1st of January 2027. And we've got pretty good line of sight in that. So therefore, when you look at it, you can see that we've got strong buffers relative to that lower bound of 13% of our current targets. So I'm not committing today as to the date or what we might do on any change of our 13% to 14% target, but we are actively thinking about the appropriate capital targets and capital buffers that we have required for our business on a more medium to longer term. Look, if you go to the deferred tax aspect of it, I think there's a couple of things to remember within there that the treatment within capital is slightly different than the treatment within accounting. So you sort of -- you can see changes coming through at different times. differences of recognition versus utilization of those assets. But we have just over GBP 800 million of DTA assets remaining. We have written back about GBP 1.2 billion since 2023. So we don't have a significant amount more to recognize. Interestingly, with deferred tax assets, you've got to really look at where they're sitting in terms of the legal entity structure as well and what's kind of -- and the ability to use them is very much structured by that legal entity structure. We do think, however, that our utilization in Q4 would be around in line with Q3. And then for 2026 onwards, we do expect a slightly lower utilization, probably around GBP 100 million to GBP 150 million per year. So continued support to capital generation, but at a slightly different level just given that we've used a lot of the losses up there or given where other historic losses are sitting and your ability to kind of access them. And Jonathan, we happily have a longer chat on DT offline as well with you, if that's something that would be helpful. Operator: Our next question comes from Guy Stebbings of BNP Paribas Exane. Guy Stebbings: So just around NII and the NIM bridge in Q3, and then I had one very short supplementary. So the hedge build was, I think, broadly as expected. The better performance in terms of the NIM bridge, I think came from funding and other and then to a lesser extent, the asset margins, which were up fractionally. So firstly, on the funding and other, I think that included some hedge accounting and reallocations between NII and OI. So perhaps you could just clarify exactly what's going on there. And to be clear, if it's correct to think that we should expect any sort of sequential benefits from there, but nor it reverses, that's the right way to think about it? And then on the asset margins, do you think we should expect to see further growth in there? Or is that really just a function of Sainsbury's coming in fully and then perhaps need to be mindful of some minor mortgage spread churn as we look forward? And then just a very quick point of clarification. On RWAs, I recognize the guidance hasn't changed. You flagged the business growth and CRD IV model changes. But just interested if we're coming into Q4 in a slightly better position than you originally thought and whether that means we might be more towards the lower end of that range for the full year guide. Paul Thwaite: Thanks. Katie, over to you. Katie Murray: Yes, perfect, Lovely. Thanks very much. So first of all, yes, funding and other, up 3 basis points, 2 bps related to treasury, and that's not going to repeat. This bucket is always interesting in the walk. It's got a number of different moving parts within it. And really, it's kind of the reflection of the management of a GBP 700 billion balance sheet that we need to consider kind of in any given quarter. So you do get the odd basis point that comes out. But this quarter, we did implement a hedge accounting solution for some of that FX swap activity that we've talked about over the last number of quarters. It's a one-off 2 bp benefit. in NIM, we don't expect it to repeat nor do we expect it to reverse. But going forward, you should see less volatility in the NIM from that activity quarter-on-quarter, which will be a lower drag to NII, a lower benefit to noninterest income. But really importantly, the same economic benefit overall as we go through. If I look at the asset margin, up 1 basis point is a very kind of small movement. And you're absolutely right, Guy, is benefiting from a whole quarter of Sainsbury's. I'm not expecting particular expansion in that line. It's very much dependent in one quarter on the mix and what you might see kind of happening within there at any time. If I spend a little moment on the kind of mortgage margins that we have within there, you're absolutely right. If you think of where our mortgage margins are versus the NIM overall, that's clearly something that you do see as a bit of a negative -- we've always talked that the book is around 70 basis points. We do see at the moment that we're writing a little below that, just -- and that's very much a symptom of the really intense competition that we're seeing on mortgages. So again, that will be a feature of the NIM as we go through from here. The market does move around in terms of where that is. But certainly, at the moment, there's a little bit of pressure within that space. In terms of RWAs, I would really think of that really as timing as much as anything else. I wouldn't say it's going to be particularly having an impact. In the next quarter, I have talked about more material CRD IV impacts coming through. There'll be a little bit of loan growth, of course. We've obviously continued to work on our risk management -- sorry, our RWA management program as well. But I wouldn't look at that and go actually, that's going to pull them down. It really is just timing. Thanks, Guy. Hopefully, that answered it all. Operator: Our next question comes from Robert Noble at Deutsche Bank. Robert Noble: I wanted to ask one on liquidity, please. So there's been a continued rotation in your liquidity from cash into government bonds that seems to pick up, right? So what's the spread pickup you're getting off that? And hypothetically, could you move all cash into gilts? Or what's the regulatory restriction that caps you out from doing that? And then just on the term deposit outflows in the quarter, should we expect the same next quarter given that 1 year and 2 year ago, rates looked equally as high. Is there a similar maturity issue in Q4? Paul Thwaite: Thanks, Rob. So I take the deposit one quickly and then back to you liquidity piece. On deposits, Rob, we did have some particularly large maturities in the third quarter. And you're right, if you think back 2 years ago when we had the kind of the backup in rates, they related to that. So it's not that we don't have maturities in quarter 4, but they're not of the same size or price or margin price points as what we had in quarter 3. And as I said, our retention rates are actually quite good. We're just being very dynamic in where we see value and retention and where we don't. So that's how to think about that. Katie? Katie Murray: Yes, sure. On liquidity. So we -- a couple of things going on in that liquidity ratio. One, we've recognized the TFSME repayment that we're about to do given the way that's moved through. So don't -- so don't kind of forget that piece, that will be happening in the next kind of few weeks. But you're absolutely right. If I look at the swap we've made into gilts, it really was a question to get some of that pickup. It's about 50 basis points in the 5- to 7-year kind of level. So very pleased to have done that. We wouldn't move the entire piece of our liquidity portfolio into gilts. That would be not quite putting all your money on black. But it's -- we do kind of obviously have some restrictions around where we have to hold and the restriction is really a function of that leverage ratio as well to make sure that, that's the right balance. I would say at the moment, the portfolio is split around 50-50. So there's plenty of opportunity to do a little bit more of maneuvering into gilts if we think that that's attractive as well. But certainly, just as you would expect us to be being quite dynamic in the management of that portfolio. Thanks very much, Rob. Operator: Our next question comes from Benjamin Toms of RBC. Benjamin Toms: First one is just to help my structural hedge model, if that's all right. Your guidance this year for structural hedge maturities of GBP 35 billion. Should we be making the same assumption for next year? I'm just conscious that you added to the hedge in '21 and 2022. So I'm not sure whether that should mean there's a pickup in maturities or whether you're just feathering at the front end, which means maturities should be pretty consistent as we go through the years. And then secondly, on other income, you purchased cushion in 2023 to provide workplace pension solutions. Can you just give us your latest strategic thoughts on that part of the business, what you think you do well and what you think you lack? Katie Murray: Yes, perfect. So in terms of the maturity, I mean, Ben, the way that we look at it, it's GBP 172 billion at the moment. It's obviously a function of current account and NIBs growth. We're pleased to see the growth in that. You'll recall that we do a kind of look back of 12 months as we work out how much we're going to reinvest. We also do some work during the year on the behavioral life in terms of what's happening with our actual current account holders and things like that. But actually, what I would guide you to at the moment is think of it really as GBP 35 billion a year. If we see particularly strong growth on those current accounts, it might change in the future years. But for your model, I would stick to the GBP 35 billion number. It's very even because we've been so mechanistic. So I wouldn't kind of deviate from there. Paul, do you want to? Paul Thwaite: Yes, I'll take workplace pensions. So Ben, cushion is a good business. It's got a strong proposition, very strong technology, and it's proven attractive to our kind of commercial mid-market customers. Obviously, there's kind of legal legal and kind of market dynamics that make it important for a lot of those clients to be able to offer workplace pensions to their employees and colleagues. And it's proven very attractive. And it's -- going forward, I think it's an important part of the proposition that we can provide or facilitate that service. There has also been a series of reg changes in the last couple of years around Master Trust, which certainly lend themselves to Master Trust having significant scale. So net-net, it's a good business. It's an important proposition to be able to offer to our commercial clients, but there have been some regulatory changes as well. So that's how we're thinking about, I guess, that workplace pensions area. Thanks Ben. Operator: Our next question is from Ed Firth of KBW. Edward Hugo Firth: I guess I had 2 related questions. I mean the first one is, if I look at your returns in Q3, they're now -- even if you take out the one-off, over 20%. And if I -- if you can normalize, we can normalize the hedge and capital is quite strong. So you're easily getting into the mid-20s or high 20s. And so I'm just trying to think how do you think about that in terms of what is an appropriate level of return? Because we can talk about the operating leverage and lower capital requirements going forward, et cetera, which would push that up even more. And I'm thinking of that, I guess, in the context of a bank tax potentially in November because it feels like it will be quite a tough discussion between you and the government about levels of return and appropriate levels of return. So I guess that would be my first question. At what level do you think we make enough now and actually we should be focusing on growing from here and fixing the returns? I guess that's the first question. Then the second one is sort of related to that. We're all sort of thinking now about -- I know it's sort of 2 years away, but what happens when the hedge runs out. And if you are at sort of peak returns, what do you do next, I guess, is the question? Because there was various discussions earlier in the year about potentially you buying things, but you obviously stepped away from that. And I'm just thinking, is that what we should think about going forward? Because relative to your own returns, I think it's going to be tough to find anything that makes an equivalent level if that's okay. So rather rambling 2 questions, but I think quite key. Paul Thwaite: Yes. Thanks, Ed. Good to hear from you. I guess there's a number of those points intersect with each other. First thing I'd say is, as you well know, it's taken a long time for a number of banks to return their cost of capital. So in some ways, it's healthy that we're having that discussion. You look at it through another lens, notwithstanding that, U.K. banks are still valued very differently to many other parts of the world for what could arguably be said to be similar businesses, similar business models and mixes and in certain extent, very similar regulatory regimes. I'm going to slightly disappoint you and give you a kind of a politician's answer about what's the right levels of returns. I think the key way we think about it is from a management team perspective and a Board perspective is we need to get the balance right between supporting customers and deploying our capital to do that and helping them grow and hopefully helping the U.K. between investing in the business, it's a very competitive sector, not just the large incumbents, but there's a very broad range of competitors. It's crucial that we invest in the business. And primarily, that relates to technology and people. And we need to make the right returns and return and present what hopefully everybody believes is an attractive investment case. So the debate we have is about the balance between those 3 items. It's a spot RoTE for the quarter. As you say, it has some one-offs in, but yes, fair challenge, it's year-to-date, it's 19.5%. And if you take off the one-offs, it's high 18%. We're working very hard on all the lines, not just the structural hedge. We're trying to grow lending growth. We're driving cost out of the business. We're working the balance sheet an awful lot harder. So we think those returns are the kind of the fruits of our activity. And I think as a Board, you just have to -- we just have to debate, let's get the balance right between making sure we've got a really attractive and sustainable business in the long term, and we're investing it -- we're doing what we need to do in terms of supporting customers and delivering returns. So that's how we think about it. I know I haven't shared a number there for -- because I don't think that's the appropriate way to do it. On M&A or kind of where does that lead, which is a very connected question. The strategy is working. I laid it out 2 years ago. The organic plan is obviously proving successful. We're growing all 3 of our businesses. We're driving a lot of simplification. I think we've got a good runway to go. We've managed to do that without changing our kind of risk profile. That hasn't been a constraint on our growth. We've continued to grow. So that's great. So organic plan looks good. If opportunities come to accelerate that plan, then we'll look at them. You'll have heard probably 5 times my quote about the financial high bar, but that remains true. It has to be -- if we're going to deploy capital on something that we think can accelerate the plan, it has to be compelling from a shareholder perspective. And that's how we look at things. It has to Otherwise, it's -- I think it's a hard case for me to make to investors. So we will look, but we'll be cold eyed. And the counterfactual, as you say, when the organic plan is performing so well, the counterfactual can be arguably more challenging. But I think I have a responsibility to do that in terms of the alternative uses of the capital. So I've expanded a little bit there. Hopefully, that's given you a sense of just how as management, we think about those topics. Operator: We are now approaching 10 a.m. So we'll take our last question from Andrew Coombs from Citi. Andrew Coombs: I guess one follow-up and 2 follow-ups really. Just firstly, on that point about capital return versus inorganic versus organic loan growth. I mean, you yourself have said there's a very high bar for inorganic given the returns you're already producing. And obviously, now you're trading well above tangible book. The buybacks are also slightly less accretive than they would have once been. So when you're thinking about the dividend payout, the 50% policy, any reason why that couldn't be higher going forward? What are the pros and cons of shifting that dividend payout ratio? And then second question, just on the structural hedge. You're still at 2.5-year average duration. Your peers are all now at 3.5 partly due to what they see to be the behavioral life of the deposit base. I'm sure partly due to technical reasons as well. But perhaps you could elaborate on the maturity profile of the hedge and why you don't see the need to increase it here. Paul Thwaite: Great. Thanks, Andrew. I'll take the first. You take the second, Katie? Katie Murray: Okay. Paul Thwaite: Okay. So Andy, obviously, we've increased the ordinary dividend from 40% to 50%. We're in the first year of that. In parallel, we'll also said we'll look at surplus capital at the half year and the full year, as you would expect us to with the Board. We're very keen to have a consistent approach to surplus capital distribution. So we're not actively reviewing the ordinary at the moment. But over time, obviously, it's a responsible thing for the Board to do. Katie, on the average life of the hedge? Katie Murray: Yes, absolutely. So it's interesting -- as we look at the hedge, it's important to remember the hedge has got 2 portions within it. There's the equity hedge and also the product hedge. So you're absolutely right. The product hedge is 2.5%. The total hedge is closer to 3. I think it's important as you look at the assumptions on this is the mechanistic model that we've had has played out very well for us. I mean, for me, I think you'd only increase your duration if you felt the duration of your eligible deposits had increased based on behavioral assumptions. I think given what we are seeing in terms of movement that we have not just on the current accounts, that wouldn't actually necessarily be something that I would say that we've seen in our books. I'm not doing that. And I think it's also really important. We've always been very clear that with the hedge. It isn't there for us to express a view on where rates are sitting. Others sometimes have taken different views on that, and you need to talk to them on that. But that's -- for me, if you were to try to extend at this point, the absolute pickup you'd be getting wouldn't be logical for the difference you would be making in it. And we don't necessarily see that actually within our underlying numbers that we're seeing those changes in behavioral likes that would also support that duration extension of that. But overall, product hedge 2.5 years, total hedge about closer to 3, very comfortable with the performance of it served us well for many, many years. And as we look at that increase in income this next year into 2026, greater than GBP 1 billion and continuing to grow as we go out to 2028 as well. So very happy with how it's performing. Thanks very much. Operator: Thank you for all your questions today. I will now pass back to Paul to close. Paul Thwaite: Yes. Thanks, Oliver, and thank you, everybody, for your questions. We appreciate both your time and the insightful questions on the call. So to wrap things up, we're very pleased with the performance in quarter 3 and the continuing momentum we've got in our 3 businesses. We've upgraded our income and returns guidance, and we continue to see opportunities, as I think we've conveyed today to continue to take market share and grow those businesses. We look forward to catching up with you at a couple of things. We've got the retail banking spotlight on November 25. And also, as I said earlier, we'll update you on our guidance for 2026 and share our new targets for 2028 at the full year in February. So I wish you all a good weekend. Thank you. Katie Murray: Thanks very much. Operator: That concludes today's presentation. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator: Hello. Welcome to the Signify Third Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call hosted by As Tempelman, CEO; Zeljko Kosanovic, CFO; and Thelke Gerdes, Head of Investor Relations. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to give the floor to Thelke Gerdes. Ms. Gerdes, please go ahead. Thelke Gerdes: Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Signify's Earnings Call for the Third Quarter of 2025. With me today are As Tempelman, Signify's CEO; and Zeljko Kosanovic, Signify's CFO. I would, first of all, like to welcome As to his first earnings call as Signify's new CEO. During this call, As will take you through the first -- the third quarter and business highlights. After that, he will hand over to Zeljko, who will present the company's financial and sustainability performance. Finally, As will return to discuss the outlook for the remainder of the year and share some first reflections and priorities. After that, we will be happy to take your questions. Our press release and presentation were published at 7:00 this morning. Both documents are available for download from our Investor Relations website. The transcript of this conference call will be made available as soon as possible. And with that, I will hand over to As. A.C. Tempelman: Thank you, Thelke, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. As Thelke said, this is my first earnings call in this role, and I look forward to this engagement with you this morning. Now I joined the company six weeks ago at a time when the markets are indeed very challenging. So let's begin with some of the key market developments I have observed in my -- over the third quarter. Firstly, we see the ripple effects of tariffs as Chinese overcapacity is redirected from the U.S. to Europe and other regions. And this is creating additional price pressure, especially in the professional trade channels in Europe and Asia, where competition has intensified. Secondly, in our Professional business, we also see continued softness in important European countries, such as France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. And increasingly also in the U.S., where demand is slower or has been slower than expected in the third quarter. And this is especially the case for the public sector projects with government funding. And thirdly, in our OEM business, we see further compression of demands and continued price pressure, particularly in Europe as well. And this has been, again, intensified by the increased imports of Chinese components putting pressure on the market for nonconnected. However, I'm glad to say the market also presents opportunities that fit our strategy well. Our growth in connected and specialty lighting and particularly in consumer is very encouraging. The consumer business grew in all major markets and was particularly strong in India. And this strong performance of consumer was boosted by the expansion of our Hue portfolio, and I'll cover that in a bit more detail a little later. Now overall, connected and specialty lightings grew by high single digits across both the professional and consumer businesses. And worth mentioning is also our agricultural lighting business that delivered a strong seasonal performance, helping to offset some of the weaker areas of the portfolio. So overall, if I would have to summarize, this quarter underlines the resilience and growth potential of our connected and specialty lighting and the price pressure on the more commoditized products in the traditional trade channel. Now let me move to an example that illustrates how our connected solutions are creating value for our customers and wider communities. I mean despite the challenges in the European public sector, there are still great projects. And one of them is presented here. We just completed the street lighting project for the municipality of Montbartier in France. And the local municipality set out to modernize its public lighting with the goals of improving safety, enabling remote maintenance in a sustainable, cost-efficient way. And by implementing our SunStay Pro solar luminaires that are fully integrated with our connected lighting managements and the Signify Interact platform. And this all-in-one solar powered solution allows the municipality to optimize luminaire run time, control the systems remotely and significantly reduce energy costs, while addressing environmental impacts. So it's a great example of how solar and connected technologies come together to support energy transition goals, while delivering meaningful benefits for customers and communities. And we hope to see a lot more of that going forward. Let me move to the second example, second highlights. I talked about this earlier, the exciting new portfolio expansion that supported the strong third quarter performance of our consumer business. And I just installed the Philips Hue system myself, and I have to say, I've been super impressed by it. It's a really cool product. And Hue is truly the leading connected lighting system for the home, with a very strong brand and a loyal growing customer base. And the launch in September exceeded our expectations, creating strong demands with excellent execution, including well-managed availability on our e-commerce sites. And among the new innovations was a new feature that transformed existing Hue lights into intelligent motion sensors that respond to movements. So really, this way, we continue to extend the role of Hue beyond illumination in our customers' home to integrating security, entertainment and intelligent lighting. And also worth mentioning, we introduced the new Essential range that introduces you to customers at a more accessible price point. So these are some highlights. And with that, I'll hand it over to Zeljko, who will continue to cover the financial performance of the quarter. Zeljko? Zeljko Kosanovic: Thank you As, and good morning, everyone. So let's start with some of the highlights of the third quarter of 2025 on Slide 8. We increased the installed base of connected light points to EUR 160 million at the end of Q3 2025 from EUR 136 million last year. Nominal sales decreased by 8.4% to EUR 1.407 billion, including a negative currency effect of 4.5%, which was mainly related to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar. Comparable sales declined by 3.9%. Excluding the conventional business, the comparable sales decline was 2.7%. This is reflecting the continued weakness in Europe's Professional business and a softer demands in the U.S. In addition, the OEM business saw further demand compression and continued price pressure. The adjusted EBITA margin decreased by 80 basis points to 9.7%. We sustained a robust gross margin, particularly in the Professional and in the consumer businesses. But we, at the same time, saw headwinds in the OEM business and conventional, which I will address later in the presentation. Net income decreased to EUR 76 million, reflecting a lower income from operation as well as a higher income tax expense as the previous year included one-off tax benefits. Finally, free cash flow was EUR 71 million. I will now move on -- move to our 4 businesses. Starting with the Professional business on Slide 9. Nominal sales decreased by 6.8% to EUR 928 million, reflecting lower volumes and a negative FX impact of 4.6%, mainly related to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar. Comparable sales declined by 2.1%, driven by different dynamics. First of all, we saw a softer-than-anticipated U.S. market. Europe remained weak, especially in the trade channel, and these developments were partly compensated by the continued growth of connected sales in most geographies and also a strong performance in agricultural lighting during the peak season for this segment. The adjusted EBITA decreased to EUR 97 million with an EBITA margin sustained at a robust level of 10.4%, however, contracting by 40 basis points compared to last year mainly due to the lower sales. The business maintained a solid gross margin, which expanded sequentially, but contracted slightly against the high comparison base in the previous year, and we also retained strong cost discipline. Moving on to the Consumer business on Slide 10. The positive momentum we saw in the first half of the year continued and strengthened in the third quarter, supported by sustained demand across all key markets. Nominal sales decreased by 1.1% to EUR 301 million, reflecting a negative currency impact of 4.8%, partly offset by the underlying growth. Comparable sales growth was 3.7%, driven by the continued success of our connected portfolio, particularly Philips Hue, and the recent new product launches as was highlighted by As a few minutes ago. We also saw a further acceleration of online sales, particularly through our own e-commerce website. Our Consumer business in India also continued to deliver strong performance, particularly in luminaires, further contributing to the segment's overall growth and profitability. Adjusted EBITA increased to EUR 27 million, while the margin expanding by 150 basis points to 9.1%, supported by a robust gross margin and operating leverage. Continuing now with the OEM business on Slide 11. As anticipated, performance deteriorated in the third quarter. Nominal sales decreased by 26.1% to EUR 93 million, while comparable sales declined by 23%, driven by lower volumes and the persistent price pressure in nonconnected components. The impact of lower orders from two major customers highlighted in previous quarters continued to materially affect the top line. Price pressure continued to be intense in this market as in the previous quarters. And overall, we are also seeing a further weakening of the market demand, especially in Europe. Adjusted EBITA decreased to EUR 4 million, with the margin contracting to 4.7%, mainly reflecting the gross margin decline due to the volume reduction and price pressure. Looking ahead, we expect market conditions to remain challenging, with limited recovery in demand in the near term. And finally, turning to the Conventional business on Slide 12. Performance in the third quarter was broadly in line with expectations, reflecting the ongoing structural decline in this part of the portfolio. Nominal sales decreased by 25.3% to EUR 76 million impacted by lower volume and a negative currency effect. Comparable sales declined by 21.5%, consistent with the gradual phaseout of conventional technologies across most regions. The adjusted EBITA margin decreased by 230 basis points to 17%. This was mainly driven by a lower gross margin, which was impacted by temporarily higher manufacturing costs as we are rationalizing our manufacturing sites. Let me now dive into the financial highlights on Slide 13, where we are showing the adjusted EBITA bridge for total Signify. The adjusted EBITA margin decreased by 80 basis points to 9.7% due to the following developments. The negative volume effect was 70 basis points, reflecting the decline of our OEM and Conventional businesses. The combined effect of price and mix was a negative 170 basis points, reflecting the further stabilization of price erosion trends across our business. As mentioned, we see higher the effect of price erosion in some parts of the business, such as OEM and Professional Europe, but also a positive pricing in the U.S. Cost of goods sold overall had a usual contribution year-over-year this quarter, with four main elements within that. First, we continue to deliver strong bill of material savings across all businesses, in line and even slightly higher than in previous quarters, which was including an accelerated price negotiation savings. Second, the overall manufacturing productivity was impacted specifically in the OEM business by significant volume decline, and in the Conventional business by temporarily higher manufacturing costs as a result of the site rationalization mentioned earlier. There were also one-off elements that impacted cost of goods sold positively last year, but did not repeat this year. And finally, the cost of goods sold in the third quarter included the effect of incremental tariffs, which were mitigated through pricing action, and are therefore neutral on the total gross margin level. The indirect costs improved by 130 basis points on adjusted EBITA margin level, reflecting the continued cost discipline across our business. Currency had a negative effect of only 10 basis points as we limited the effect of FX movements on our bottom line. Finally, Other had a positive effect of 40 basis points and related mainly to the outcome of a legal case. On Slide 14, I'd like to zoom in our working capital performance during the quarter. Compared to the end of September 2024, working capital increased by EUR 20 million or by 70 basis points, from 7.7% to 8.4% of sales. Within working capital, we saw the following developments: inventories decreased by EUR 70 million; receivables reduced by EUR 52 million; payables were EUR 156 million lower; and finally, other working capital items reduced by EUR 13 million. The increase of the overall working capital ratio is mainly driven by 2 factors: the ramping up of consumer ahead of the peak season and the impact of the top line compression on the OEM inventory churn. Now before I hand it back, I would like to touch on our progress toward our Brighter Lives, Better World 2025 commitments. Starting with greenhouse gas emissions. We are ahead of schedule to meet our 2025 goal of reducing emissions across our entire value chain by 40% compared to 2019. That's twice the pace required by the Paris agreements. Next, on circular revenues, we reached 37% this quarter, well above our 2025 target of 32%. The biggest driver here continues to be serviceable luminaires within our Professional business, where we're seeing strong adoption across all regions. When it comes to Bright Lives revenues, the part of our portfolio that directly supports health, well-being and food availability, we increased to 34% this quarter, up 1 point from last quarter and again, above our 2025 targets. Both our Professional and Consumer businesses are contributing strongly here. And finally, on diversity, the percentage of women in leadership positions remained at 27% this quarter. While that's below where we want to be, we are continuing to take concrete steps to improve representation from more inclusive hiring practices to focused retention and engagement efforts to help us reach our 2025 ambition. So overall, we are making good progress, with strong momentum in most areas and a clear focus on where we still need to accelerate. I will now hand back to As for the outlook. A.C. Tempelman: Thank you, Zeljko. So moving on to the outlook. Based on the softer than previously expected outlook, particularly for the Professional business in the U.S., and further demand compression in the OEM business, we are updating our guidance for the full year 2025 as follows. So we expect comparable sales growth of minus 2.5% to minus 3% for the year, which is equivalent to 1 -- minus 1 to minus 1.5 CSG, excluding Conventional. And as a result of this lower expected top line, we are also adapting our adjusted EBITA margin with a guidance to 9.1% to 9.6%. And finally, we expect our free cash flow to land at around 7% of sales. That's on the outlook. Now I wanted to share a few reflections and talk a bit about the priorities as I see them going forward. Almost eight weeks into the role now -- let me do that. There is a lot to be proud of at Signify. I mean we have very committed, capable professionals, a really impressive world-class innovative engine and a strong culture of cost and capital discipline that continues to serve us very well. At the same time, we are also clear about the difficulties that we face as a company. The lighting market remains very challenging. Growth has been lacking and the performance has been volatile. So coming in, I see the following immediate priorities. First, to outperform in what is a very tough markets. So we must focus on commercial and supply chain execution. We need to manage price pressure, continue to win in the connected and the specialty lighting and close efficiency gaps. We also need to maintain strict control and capital disciplines to enhance our profitability and cash flow. And I will make sure that, that discipline, we will stay with that going forward. Secondly, we can, and we should be clearer about our strategic intents and our strategic objectives. And therefore, we are planning to review our strategy. We will organize the Capital Markets Day towards the middle of next year, where we will provide clarity on our portfolio on how we deliver durable growth and on capital allocation. And thirdly, as key enablers, we will focus our R&D resources and continue to invest in accelerating digitalization and AI adoption. Now 18 months, the company launched a new operating model that we will not change, and we will fully leverage to its full potential. And at the same time, we will start shifting the culture, from products, to a more market-led mindset and approach. And from what I've seen so far that by addressing these priorities, I'm confident that we will set up Signify for future success. And with that, I'll hand it back to the operator to facilitate the question-and-answer session. Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Daniela Costa from Goldman Sachs. Daniela Costa: I hope you can hear me well. I will ask one and then the follow-up. But I just wanted to ask on your kind of early thoughts in terms of the OEM business. So it seems to be mentioning intense pricing pressure, lost some customers. Do you see this as more structural or more cyclical when you look at it? And have -- was that anything to do with -- what prompted you to talk about reviewing the portfolio, I wonder. A.C. Tempelman: How do we see the OEM business going forward? Well, first of all, we saw the impact of the loss of two specific customers that was quite significant. That also is explaining a large part of the drop we saw. That, of course, will go away after a year. But going forward, we expect that current conditions will continue to be challenging, both in terms of demand as well as the price pressure. But it's too early to call what exactly that will look like in the next year. Daniela Costa: And then just following up on the topic of tariffs. I mean in the release, they weren't too many references to it, but I was just wondering if you could give us a little bit of what is happening on the ground, given the U.S. market was highly dependent on Chinese imports on lighting. What's sort of the inventory attitude you've seen at distributors. Has there been any restocking of Chinese product? Could this be impacting what you are seeing in the market right now? And ultimately, as you look medium term, if the tariff stand, do you see them as a positive or a negative for Signify? Is it an opportunity to gain market share and put prices through? Or also you are very dependent on Asia and it's not really -- we shouldn't see it this way? Just a little bit more color there would be very helpful. Zeljko Kosanovic: Daniela, so maybe to give a bit of an update and a summary on what we see. So first of all, I think in general, on pricing, the scale players have generally taken price increases to the extent that was needed. Our price adjustment, on the Signify side, were generally in line with the market, and we also saw that prices increase are sticking. Now overall, we've been able, in the third quarter like we did in the previous quarter, and we expect to be able to continue to do so to successfully mitigate the tariff increase with pricing. So with a slightly positive impact on the top line for our U.S. business and a neutral impact on the bottom line. So overall, the strategy we have set up and of course, all the activities that we have taken on the supply chain side to adapt and to reduce the exposure or to optimize our cost base and outsourcing, I think, are really being executed really exactly in line with our plan. So there we are basically implementing what we had. And of course, we continue to maintain the agility to adapt, moving forward, depending on how the situation will evolve. But overall, slightly positive on top line, neutral on the bottom line and implementation in line with our strategy. Daniela Costa: So you don't see it as a market share grabbing opportunity or something a bit more structural medium term is just a pass-through? Zeljko Kosanovic: Look, the answer on that would be probably -- we should go more in detail, depending on the portfolio. Of course, what we are doing in the different portfolios is to find the balancing act between prioritizing market share gain where we do see opportunity and where we are extracting those opportunities very clearly, while protecting the margins. So I think it's really, at a more granular level, let's say, that this is going to be a different answer. But overall, it's to make sure that we can absolutely take advantage. And we have seen a clear example where we've been able to do so, while protecting the profitability, as I just mentioned. So this has actually been our strategy, and we are seeing that, of course, evolving, depending on the landscape of tariffs that has also been changing quite a bit over the last few months. Operator: The next question comes from Martin Wilkie from Citi. Martin Wilkie: It's Martin from Citi. Just coming back to the overcapacity being redirected from China that you referred to, just understand where we are in that process. And obviously, we hear a lot about China's antipollution drive to reduce overcapacity across other industries. You probably hear more about markets like solar, batteries, things like that. But is there a reduction or an anticipated reduction in Chinese overcapacity? Or is that something that you expect to remain like this for the foreseeable future? A.C. Tempelman: Yes. Thanks, Martin, for the question. So indeed, we look also at all the export statistics and what is happening with the trade flows. And indeed, what we see is that you see some of the decline in terms of trade flows from China to the U.S. seeing kind of an equal amount of quantities lending in the rest of the world and in Europe. So -- and that does cause some additional price pressure. To your question around, hey, do we expect that -- how sustainable is that -- in China, we see that is kind of flattening out, that price erosion. And well, to whether we see a significant consolidation in the Chinese market is still to be seen. So I wouldn't want to conclude anything on that at this point. Martin Wilkie: And just related to that, just keen to hear about your first impression of industry dynamics and the side that we might get a lot more detail at the Capital Markets Day next year. But when you consider what's happening with Chinese competition, but also, as you pointed out, you have some great connected products and so forth at Signify, what are your first impressions of Signify's competitive position and in particular, the moat around the business to address some of these competitor challenges? A.C. Tempelman: Yes. So there you really need to -- Martin, you need to really go deeper. What I see is that on the professional side, we play in many, many segments, and each segment has kind of its own dynamics. And equally, if you look at the business by trade channel, the dynamics around projects is very different than the competitive dynamics around the more traditional and online trade channels. So we need to make very explicit in our strategy and we will do that at Capital Markets Day about where we want to focus our efforts. And what is the portfolio that we want to build going forward. So that clarity will be created there. Operator: The next question comes from Akash Gupta from JPMorgan. Akash Gupta: My first one is on North America. So maybe if we can zoom in on U.S. business a bit. One of your U.S. competitors, they reported kind of flattish revenues in U.S. lighting, professional lighting, while you are talking about softness in the quarter, which was weaker than what you expected. Maybe if you can provide some color on what do you see in various categories in Professional channel? And I think you did talk about some weakness in public side. So maybe if you can talk about where do you see growth where you don't see growth in North America Professional. And is there any loss of market share that we should be aware of? So that's the first one. A.C. Tempelman: Yes. Sure. Good question. And indeed, the U.S. market, I mean year-to-date, we are growing in the U.S. We had expected more of the U.S. market in the third quarter, but that was not as high as expected. So we saw more flattish pattern. Now the two key messages on the U.S. market, I think, and you mentioned them yourself. One is that we see project activity is softening, and that is particularly driven by public sector projects. Will that change in the fourth quarter, that is to be seen. It's not that we lost projects, to your question around market share, but we see more of delays, right? So there's clearly a delay there. And then there's the trade channel where there, we see quite tough competition, particularly on the lower end of the product portfolio. So to your question about how are we performing in that context. So I think it's fair to say that we are on par with markets when it comes to professional projects. We are outperforming when it comes to connected and agricultural lighting, and we are probably a bit below par when it comes to the trade and do-it-yourself channels. Akash Gupta: And my follow-up is on organic growth guidance. So for this year, you are now guiding minus 1 to minus 1.5, excluding Conventional. And year-to-date, we are at minus 1.0. So that would imply that for Q4, you have -- the best expectation is flat organic growth. I think you already said consumer -- not consumer, sorry, OEM is going to be a bit weak in Q4. But maybe if you can tell us about the moving parts for both Professional and Consumer in Q4 that we should be aware of? And also on the growth, how much of this is also driven by price/mix compared to, let's say, simply lower than previously expected volumes? Zeljko Kosanovic: Yes. Akash, maybe to give a bit of color on the -- as you said, the building bricks on the dynamic of the top line in the fourth quarter. So first of all, if you look at consumer there, we see, as we mentioned, a strengthening momentum and we expect this to continue, and we have confidence on the momentum to continue with a strong Q4. Of course, this is the highest and the strongest quarter for that business. The Conventional business also is more predictable. Now to your question, I think the two areas where we see the most challenges and where we've looked, of course, at the different scenarios, Professional business. So this is trade as mentioned, in both U.S. and Europe and also the public sector in general as well as OEM business. So look, in the -- what is reflected in the guidance is the translation of what we see out of those scenarios of what could evolve in the fourth quarter in the continuity of our third quarter trends. So as we said, for the U.S. it's softer than what we had previously anticipated, but it's basically a softening of the momentum that we remain resilient in many parts of that business. Now on the price, maybe looking back, what we've observed across all our businesses is a stability in the pricing trends over the last quarters. However, with more price intensity, clearly, in the nonconnected part for the OEM business and also definitely in the trade part in Europe and also to some extent, in the U.S. So look, in terms of the price dynamics, it's not for price and mix dynamic. Of course, the mix will be impacted by our portfolio mix. But overall, no major change. And I think the softer or the update of the guidance is fundamentally driven by volumes. And as we said, mostly linked to professionally in the U.S. and OEM. Operator: The next question comes from Chase Coughlan from Van Lanschot Kempen. Chase Coughlan: My first one regarding the Conventional business, you, of course, talked about rationalizing the footprint a little bit more, which might have a several quarter and had some profitability.Can you just elaborate a little bit on the exact plan there? How much more can you rationalize, for example, how many facilities are you operating at the moment? And what will that be in a few quarters? Zeljko Kosanovic: Okay. Look, yes, the line was not totally right. But if I understood, and please correct me, the question, it's about the further rationalization of our manufacturing in convention. So look, yes, we've been, I mean, consistently, over the last few years, in driving, I think we used to have over 30 factories, now down to 3. So we've been doing proactively adjusting the manufacturing base, and we have a clear line of sight and a clear road map to do so. Of course, as I indicated earlier, in the process of doing so, then you do have adjustments that you need to really manage in the manufacturing process. So this is where we see temporarily, some headwinds or higher manufacturing costs in the process and the transition of doing so, but I think we have a very clearly established road map to drive that further, to the extent that is required to recalibrate the supply chain of that business, which we have been doing consistently over the last few years and for which we had, again, a clear road map for the coming years. Again, in that business, as a reminder, we are three parts. The general lighting or the conventional general lighting part of conventional, which is, of course, the part that is declining at a faster pace. We have the digital projection piece, which has a line of sight, let's say, another few years with very specific customers being served, and we have the specialty lighting, which has within that, growth opportunities. And that, of course, has a different road map of evolution in the future. And that will, of course, as we go along, see those pieces being bigger in the overscale of the conventional business. A.C. Tempelman: Yes. Maybe just to add to that, I was -- I spent some time with the conventional team, and I was very actually very impressed with that multiyear road map, that is really nicely faced with clear milestones and sign posts to bring that business -- harvest that business to the best extent possible. So I think the team is doing an extremely solid job on that. And to the question, is there more to go after? Yes. So we are now single-digit plants, but we also know how the trajectory will -- what it will look like going forward. Chase Coughlan: Okay. That's very helpful. I hope the line is a bit more clear. Now just on my second question, my follow-up, as you spoke about, capital discipline is one of the priorities going forward. And I'm curious on -- we're seeing net debt year-over-year increase. Earnings are, of course, coming down at the moment. Can I get your thoughts on the ongoing share buyback scheme? Is that something that you think should be continued going forward? Or do you have any, let's say, preferences for capital allocation elsewhere? A.C. Tempelman: Well, it's not that we don't have a capital allocation now, and I'll leave it to Zeljko to comment on that. But my promise was more around, I -- coming into this role, you talk to customers, partners, colleagues, but of course, also to investors. And I think what many investors rightly so ask for is, "Hey, what is your road map to sustainable growth"? What about your footprint and your portfolio? But also what about your capital allocation going forward? And I think we owe you that clarity, and we will include that in the Capital Markets Day mid next year, likely June, yes. Operator: The next question comes from Wim Gille from ABN AMRO -- ODDO BHF. Wim Gille: My first question is around Nexperia. Obviously, there's a lot of turmoil around this company at this point in time in terms of supply. And given that both Nexperia as well as you guys are at Philips. Are there any connections left there in terms of supply chain? And should we be looking into this in relation to your business? And the second question is, can you be a bit more specific around, let's say, the market share that you are looking at in the United States in terms of volumes? In particular, when I compare the performance of acuity versus you guys and if I did take into account a large part of the market used to be Chinese, which are no longer welcome there, I would have expected a bit more clarity on kind of your ability to win market share in terms of volumes in the U.S. Zeljko Kosanovic: Yes. Maybe first on the -- your question on Nexperia. So the Nexperia components are used in some Signify products. However, we do not anticipate a material impact to our supply in the near term. It's a very limited impact and mostly in the OEM business. And also at the same time, we do have an active and proactive supply chain risk management, right? So we continue to monitor the situation. And we always consists -- constantly review all the alternative sources. So that has allowed us to, in this specific case, also to apply with a lot of agility, the required mitigation. And yes, I think overall, I think we are seeing limited impact and we do have -- and the teams have been able to, of course, very, very fast, adapt and mitigate. And that's part of the strategy we have of proactive supply chain risk management and multiple sourcing to be prepared for those kinds. So limited impact for us in the near term. A.C. Tempelman: And then on the U.S. questions, are we keen to grow market share in the U.S.? Of course, we are. The -- but we need to make sure it's on strategy, right? So on the project side, clearly, we are doing well, and we are aiming to continue to grow. As I mentioned that we are probably a bit below par in the trade channel, and that is also where you see that dynamic indeed of the Chinese products. We are adding products into our portfolio that better fit that trade channel. So indeed, we see opportunities, right, in the U.S. to continue to grow our market share. Wim Gille: And then lastly, in terms of your priorities at the last slide, you also mentioned that you're looking to rationalize your portfolio. Are we then talking about significant chunks in terms of sales that you might exit or divest or whatever? Or is this more fine-tuning around the edges and it should not have a major impact on sales? A.C. Tempelman: Now let me just emphasize, Wim, that at this point, I say we are reviewing our portfolio. Don't read that as rationalizing because it's too early for me to say, "Hey, we're going to cut this or add that." It's too early. Now that said, I mean, I think, ultimately, the portfolio choices should follow your strategy. So what we'll do is we will create clarity about where -- what is the narrative for the company, where do we want to go on a 3-, 5-year horizon. If this is the company we want to build, then these are logical steps to take in terms of portfolio. And you should not only think line of business level there, but also around, "Hey, we are currently present in over 70 countries." We play in many different segments. But indeed, we also need to create clarity around how the different lines of business hang together and how we want to take that forward. So the answer is it's a review and all is included. I don't want to exclude anything at this point, nor do I want to create false expectations given where we are today. Operator: The next question comes from Marc Hesselink from ING. Marc Hesselink: A question is actually I mean two things related, both, one on gross margin and one on the OpEx. So I think given what you said before, it's likely that the lower gross margin versus previous quarters is here to stay or maybe even increase -- the pressure will increase a bit. In the quarter itself in third quarter, you really offset that by significantly adjusting your -- predominantly your SG&A cost. Is that also the way forward that when the gross margin remains under pressure that you will take more action in your short-term SG&A cost? Zeljko Kosanovic: Yes. Marc, thanks for the question. So I think, look, first of all, on the dynamic of the gross margin, what's very important to see in the dynamic. And as you said, comparing to -- I think we had 7 consecutive quarters with a margin -- gross margin above 40%, which typically would be on the higher end of the -- what we indicated as an entitlement. I think when we look at professional and consumer business in the last quarter and as we expect moving forward, we continue to see a very robust gross margin. So the -- let's say, the sequential decrease to 39.5% is entirely linked to the two headwinds I was mentioning earlier, first on the OEM business. So there is -- there are clearly the implications of the magnitude of the decline we see in OEM business on the manufacturing productivity. So this is really linked to the OEM business. And second, the temporary or transitory increase or headwinds on the manufacturing cost base of the conventional business, which we do expect to normalize by mid of next year. So I think in the dynamic of the gross margin, very clearly, very strong professional, very strong consumer. When we look, of course, at the dynamic for Q4, consumer having it's strongest quarter. And that, of course, will have a positive sequential implication on the evolution of the gross margin. So I think the dynamic on those two key pieces of the business are -- remain very strong and remain very much in line. Actually, we even saw sequential expansion of the gross margin in the Professional business quarter-over-quarter and a very limited, let's say, a decrease compared to last year, which was a very high comparison base with some one-off elements. So look, the trajectory of our gross margin remaining very strong. The two specific elements which are impacting on the OEM business linked to the volume and on the conventional business, which is more transitory. Now to your question on the evolution of the SG&A or the cost base indirect costs. As we indicated earlier, we are, of course, driving and further driving the optimization, making sure that we are deploying the investments needed to support the execution of our strategy, and this is what we are seeing clearly delivering on the connected parts and the specialty part of the business. And then, of course, at the same time, continuing to optimize and to adjust where needed, where we do see the most challenges. So I think this is a combination of those two elements that you see in the dynamic of our indirect cost base and that we expect to move forward. But the most important point is really the robustness of the gross margin absolutely sustained and confirmed for consumer and professional. Marc Hesselink: Great. Clear. And then maybe on the CapEx because also in last quarter and this quarter, the CapEx is a bit higher than last year. Is it a bit of timing? Or do you have -- is there a reason why CapEx would be increasing a bit? Zeljko Kosanovic: So there within the CapEx, I think you have, on the tangible part of CapEx, it's a limited increase, but it's more linked to some of the intangible product development. So there, we do have some -- but again, in the magnitude, I think it remains on a relatively low base, while the business remains a very low CapEx intensity. So you're right, we've seen sequentially some increase, but this is linked mostly to capitalized developments in innovation, R&D and also in the digitalization part. Operator: The next question comes from Elias New from Kepler Cheuvreux. Elias New: Just wondering on your other segment, which has seen strong momentum over recent quarters, but in the current quarter, seen a sequential decline in sales. Could you just perhaps give us some color on what is driving this? And how you would expect this to develop going forward? Zeljko Kosanovic: Yes, maybe to -- what is included in others is linked to the ventures business, and we do have one specific venture that has been developed and positioned on the connected consumer space in China. And as you mentioned, we've seen a very strong momentum. I think this venture that is continuing to perform very well. However, there were some, I think, favorable, let's say, contribution or propelling drivers coming also from the subsidies that were deployed by -- in China that were supporting an accelerated level of growth in the last quarter, which has normalized as we've seen in the third quarter. So this is the main -- the main element behind, but this is one of the ventures that is seeing a very successful traction and very well positioned in one part of the Chinese market, which is overall challenging, but that's one part of the market that has a good dynamic. And indeed, the translation of that has been lower in the last quarter compared to the previous quarters, but still substantially growing year-over-year. Operator: The next question comes from Sven Weier from UBS. Sven Weier: It's just one. And I think we've discussed a lot about relative performance of Signify against other lighting players. But I'm more curious about the relative performance of lighting within construction against other construction segments. And we're obviously seeing quite a bit of an underperformance here of lighting against other segments in the last couple of years. I guess my suspicion has always been around the renovation side that you see the kind of lagging effect of a higher LED installed base and longer replacement cycles, which I think has kind of been a bit denied by the company. I was just wondering if you're also aiming for the Capital Markets Day to provide us more color on that very point because I think it could be an important point to get a sense when does that kind of underperform potentially start to phase out and provide us more visibility on that item. That's my question. A.C. Tempelman: Yes. Thanks, Sven. And it's important so that we always start with market, not ourselves. And indeed, I think we -- the market is at the final wave of ratification, if you want, but we are not at the end of it just yet. So you still see that then having an impact, I guess, on the lighting sector in comparison with other construction-related sectors. On your question, will we create some clarity, yes. I think we'll create some clarity about how we see the harvesting road map for conventionals, but also how we see the market when it comes to ratification. And also where we see the growth opportunities because, clearly, beyond the hardware, we see then, of course, a lot of growth in connected, and that presents us with good opportunities as well. Yes. Short answer is yes, Sven, we will come back to that. Sven Weier: And so you agree that this could be a factor that you especially see on the renovation side out of the longer replacement cycles? Would you agree that this could be potentially one of the drags relative? Zeljko Kosanovic: Maybe what I can say on -- look, when we look at the dynamics of the market, how it translates because we, of course, have leading indicators that to understand exactly what you are pointing out, the look -- in short, I think the way -- the market, and of course, renovation is the most important piece of our exposure. I mean we are higher -- our indexation to the renovation is higher than to the new build in the professional nonresidential space. So to your question, I think, when you look at the different dynamics market per market, I would say, the answer to your -- or at least the conclusion you are taking is not the one that we would have. So I would understand that this has to be probably better articulated on how we see it forward, and we'll take note of your comment. But that's not what our analysis would indicate at least with the data we have. Operator: We have time for one last question, and it comes from George Featherstone from Barclays. George Featherstone: It's just about the capital allocation going back to some of the questions you've had already. Cash on the balance sheet is down about 35% year-over-year. Free cash flow is down 40% year-over-year on a year-to-date basis. You're obviously now guiding for lower cash generation ahead. How concerned are you about these trends? And do you plan to take any proactive actions to conserve cash given the weaker market trends that you talked about already? Zeljko Kosanovic: Yes. Thank you for your question. So first of all, if we look at the -- as part of our capital allocation policy and priorities, I think we've been very clear and that's what we've been driving consistently also over the past year to ensure and to sustain a strong capital structure, a strong balance sheet and a level of leverage that is supportive to an investment-grade rating sustained. So when we look at our leverage year-over-year, it has slightly decreased. So it's in line with what we expected. We have just completed, as was communicated also our refinancing with now a longer tenure for the EUR 325 million that was at maturity in the last quarter. When we look at the dynamic of cash generation versus the implementation of our capital allocation policy defined for 2025, I think there is no change or no concern to your point because we look at -- we are well on track on the execution of our share buyback program. We are able to define the priorities supporting growth as we intended. So look, no, I think the dynamic and the adjustment that we have indicated are not leading to a correction on the overall equilibrium, let's say, on the cash generation versus cash utilization that we defined in our policy for 2025. So no major change there. George Featherstone: Okay. And just specifically on the buyback, do you intend to complete that? I mean I think it's on the guidance you've given is an up to EUR 150 million. Is your intention to go all the way to EUR 150 million at this stage? Zeljko Kosanovic: So for now, we are well on track with the plan for the year. And yes, we are intending to complete, as what was committed again in our capital allocation policy, which still fits totally with the plan we have defined. So there, we are on track and expect to complete as was indicated. So in short, we had given a clear capital allocation policy for implementation in 2025, and we are executing to it consistently and expect to do so for the rest of the year. Operator: And with that, I will now turn the call back over to Thelke Gerdes for any closing remarks. Thelke Gerdes: Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for joining our earnings call today. If you have any additional questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. And again, thank you very much, and enjoy the rest of your day.
Operator: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Universal's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Arash Soleimani, Chief Strategy Officer. Arash Soleimani: Good morning. Thank you for joining us today. Welcome to our quarterly earnings call. On the call with me today are Steve Donaghy, Chief Executive Officer; and Frank Wilcox, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, please note today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures. Forward-looking statements involve assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those statements. For more information, please see the press release on Universal's SEC filings all of which are available on the Investors section of our website at universalinsuranceholdings.com and on the SEC's website. A reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to comparable GAAP measures is included in the quarterly press release and can also be found on Universal's website at universalinsuranceholdings.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Steve. Stephen Donaghy: Thanks, Arash. Good morning, everyone. It was a solid quarter with a 30.6% adjusted return on common equity. Our unique organic business model allows us to consistently generate deep double-digit ROEs, making us particularly well positioned to succeed in the much improved Florida market. Additionally, we commenced our annual actuarial review process considerably earlier this year and our findings are very encouraging. As we've discussed in recent periods, our reserving process has become more conservative with a focus on protecting and increasing the resilience of our balance sheet. When we look at our current and prior accident year reserves in the aggregate, we believe we're in a very strong position, further increasing our optimism as we turn a new chapter in the revamped Florida market. I'll turn it over to Frank to walk through our financial results. Frank? Frank Wilcox: Thanks, Steve, and good morning. Adjusted diluted earnings per common share was $1.36 compared to an adjusted loss per common share of $0.73 in the prior year quarter. The higher adjusted diluted earnings per common share mostly stems from a lower net loss ratio and higher net premiums earned, net investment income and commission revenue. Core revenue of $400 million was up 4.9% year-over-year, with growth primarily stemming from higher net premiums earned, net investment income and commission revenue. Direct premiums written were $592.8 million, up 3.2% from the prior year quarter. The increase stems from 22.2% growth in other states partially offset by a 2.6% decrease in Florida. Overall growth mostly reflects higher policies in force, higher rates and inflation adjustments across our multistate footprint. Direct premiums earned were $534.1 million, up 5.2% from the prior year quarter, reflecting direct premiums written growth over the last 12 months. Net premiums earned were $359.7 million, up 4% from the prior year quarter. The increase is primarily attributable to higher direct premiums earned partially offset by higher ceded premium ratio. The net combined ratio was 96.4%, down 20.5 points compared to the prior year quarter. The decrease reflects a lower net loss ratio, partially offset by a higher net expense ratio. The 70.2% net loss ratio was down 21.5 points compared to the prior year quarter, with the decrease reflecting the inclusion of Hurricanes Debby and Helene in the prior year quarter and the lack of hurricane activity in the current year quarter. The net expense ratio was 26.2%, up 1 point compared to the prior year quarter, with the increase primarily driven by a higher ceded premium ratio and higher policy acquisition costs associated with growth outside Florida. During the quarter, the company repurchased approximately 347,000 shares at an aggregate cost of $8.1 million. The company's current share repurchase authorization program has approximately $7.1 million remaining. On July 9, 2025, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.16 per share of common stock payable on August 9, 2025, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on August 1, 2025. With that, I'd like to ask the operator to open the line for questions. Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler. Jon Paul Newsome: And was -- maybe you could follow on a little bit more on your reserving comments. Does this foreshadow any change in how you think about profit margins prospectively and the exit year loss ratio or any change in how you think about loss picks? Stephen Donaghy: Yes. Paul, thanks for the question. We feel as though we have come through a very fraudulent time within the Florida market. And we have seen all the all the things in the past go through the book. There's still things to deal with in the future, as you know, Florida is an ever-changing market. However, we've never had as many dollars up in the aggregate as we do right now. And our file count or claims count is dramatically reduced, and our claims folks are getting the claims much faster as a result of the market that we're in. So we've seen considerably positive effects on the book and on our reserving philosophy, so to say. As we look to the future, we want to get through the year before we make any substantial adjustments and retain our conservative approach but that will be something we will look at seriously as we get into the beginning of '26 and close out 2025. Jon Paul Newsome: A different follow-up question. Any thoughts on the competitive environment. We hear all sort of talks about rate decreases in the Florida market in particular. But could you give us some general thoughts about what you're seeing both in and out of the Florida markets from a competitive perspective? Stephen Donaghy: Yes. I think, again, just to address outside of the Florida market, we're more of a niche provider, and we have our markets that we like and our rates are adequate in certain spots. And it's very -- it's highly competitive outside of Florida, and you have all the big names there as well. Within Florida, there are a lot of new players showing up. There's a lot of new players that maybe don't understand what we've understood for 25 or 26 years now. So we see a lot of various behaviors. We do not chase premium. We are sticking to rate adequacy and trying to drive a high level of service to our insurers and profitability to our shareholders. So it is competitive. There are a lot of markets. I think the agents continue to prefer to write with established providers when competitive. And so I think -- and I would say unlike other times, that's now consistent across the state. It's not just in specific markets in Florida. And I think there's different carriers that look at different geographic areas in Florida very differently. So we do -- but we continue to write new business and new policies as you've seen from last quarter. So we feel good about our position and our relationship with our agency force. Jon Paul Newsome: The last big question and then I'll let other folks ask. Capital management, you made some comments this quarter. But you now have a high-class problem here in the sense that your ROE is well above the growth rate of the company. What's your priorities there? Should we expect substantial or at least some repurchase activity prospectively as part of your sort of ongoing business given where the returns are now? Stephen Donaghy: I don't know about new purchase activity, Paul, but we consistently view our shares as a positive within our capital management. So as we look to the future and we have access to capital. We'll continue to work with the investment committee and establish guidelines and change those guidelines as we go. But we feel very confident in any acquisition of our shares that we can do at the appropriate times. Operator: Our next question comes from Nicolas Iacoviello with Dowling Partners. Nicolas Iacoviello: I just had one. Was there any net prior year development booked in the current quarter following the annual actuarial review? Frank Wilcox: Yes, there was. It's about $3.9 million related to prior year cats. Nicolas Iacoviello: All right. And I'm assuming there was nothing on the claims handling side from last year's storms, correct? Frank Wilcox: That's correct. Yes. Operator: I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to Steve Donaghy for closing remarks. Stephen Donaghy: I'd like to thank our associates, consumers, our agency force and stakeholders for their continued support of Universal and wish all a nice weekend. Operator: This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Abby, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Primis Financial Corp. Third Quarter Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] And I would now like to turn the conference over to Matt Switzer, Chief Financial Officer. You may begin. Matthew Switzer: Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Primis Financial Corp.'s 2025 Third Quarter Webcast and Conference Call. Before we begin, please note that many of our comments during this call will be forward-looking statements, which involve risk and uncertainty. There are many factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the anticipated results or other expectations expressed in the forward-looking statements. Further discussion of the company's risk factors and other important information regarding our forward-looking statements are part of our recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our recently filed earnings release, which has also been posted to the Investor Relations section of our corporate site, primisbank.com. We undertake no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect changed assumptions, the occurrence of unanticipated events or changes to future operating results over time. In addition, some of the financial measures that we may discuss this morning are non-GAAP financial measures. How a non-GAAP measure relates to the most comparable GAAP measure will be discussed with the non-GAAP measure is used, if not readily apparent. I will now turn the call over to our President and Chief Executive Officer, Dennis Zember. Dennis Zember: Thank you, Matt for that introduction, and thank you to everybody that's joined our conference call this morning. We believe our third quarter results reflect much of what we've been talking about in recent quarters, and we're excited to see the improvement and the lack of noise honestly in the current quarter. For the current quarter, we are reporting $6.8 million in net earnings and about $0.28 per share, which compares to core income of $2 million and $0.08 per share in the same quarter in '24. Our ROA and ROTCE in the current quarter improved to 70 basis points and 9.45%, respectively. We mentioned this in the press release, and I know Matt's going to give more current -- or more color. But our current profitability levels are higher than what we're reporting. When we adjust for some certain items that we know aren't permanent, we see a core ROA that's closer to 90 basis points and puts us right in line to be successful reaching the 1% ROA that we've been targeting. I know Matt is going to give more details on that. But from a high level, I want to recap some of the impactful things that happened this quarter and that give us the confidence that a 1% ROA is within reach. First, we're reporting our core margin in the quarter at 3.15%, which is up from 3.12% in the second quarter of this year, but up about 35 basis points compared to a year ago. At this point, we've replaced about half of the loans that we sold with the life premium business a year ago at yields that are at least 200 basis points higher. Importantly, we have -- importantly, we have the pipeline and the momentum to get the remaining portfolio replaced. And with current levels and margins that we see across our business, we expect that to add another 6 to 8 basis points of ROA and about -- excuse me, of margin and improved pretax earnings by about $1.6 million per quarter. We've also driven results on the deposit side. Compared to a year ago, we've grown noninterest-bearing checking accounts by about 16%, which has materially improved our deposit mix and taken our cost of deposits down by almost 20%. At the end of the quarter, alongside the rate cut by the FOMC, we were able to move lower again on the deposit side across our footprint -- across our business, both digital and in our core business. And thanks to our focus on core relationships, we've experienced very strong retention across the bank. Very little of this last move is reflected in our results due to the timing at the end of the quarter, but we expect this to be meaningfully positive to our margin and our results in the fourth quarter. When I look through the improvement in margin, I see new asset yields holding in strong, being funded incrementally at very attractive levels. Matt, I know it has more details on this. But in the current quarter, our new and renewed loans came in at about 7.16% compared to 7.57% in the second quarter of this year. New deposit business is a mix of us competing hard on new businesses, commercial businesses and driving down the overall cost with new checking accounts. New deposit business came in at around 2.51%. And so taken together, our new activity across the entire bank, all of our divisions produced spreads of about 4.65%. These kind of incremental margins on balance sheet growth is important because we're still relying on operating leverage to drive our results to where we know they should be. Our table in the press release reflects how steady we have been on operating expenses, showing that we came in at just $100,000 or so from our 5-quarter average. Looking ahead, we are confident that we can continue to hold growth in OpEx to a very minimal level, managing very tight in this environment and letting the investment that we've made in past quarters pay dividends with growth at the attractive levels we talked about. On our operating divisions, real quickly, I'm getting pretty excited about the investments we've made that are tied to residential mortgage. We've built our mortgage division from about $20 million a month of production to about $100 million to $120 million a month over the past few years. We've done this profitably too, slowly reinvesting enough of our earnings to build our production staff to what it is today. We've focused on culture and service as well as just products and pricing, and all of this work continues to pay dividends. In the third quarter, we had continued recruiting success that built annual production by about another $120 million or 10% of where we stood at the beginning of the quarter. Core results for the quarter showed pretax earnings of about $1.9 million, which is 58 basis points on closed volume and our strongest quarter yet. For core results in mortgage, we are excluding some legal fees associated with some recent hires that totaled about $900,000, and we expect this to moderate back to normal levels very rapidly. Mortgage warehouse continued to grow nicely and continued -- and shows real [ pace ] for the bank and for our earnings. To illustrate this, we had average balances in the quarter of about $210 million, but ending balances of about $327 million. Today, we have over $1 billion of uncommitted lines approved and in place and a pipeline of new opportunities working through the system of about $300 million. For the quarter, the warehouse group showed pretax earnings of about $1.6 million and moved their efficiency ratio down to about 27%. Long term and at scale, this business can be 2 to 3x its current size on our balance sheet with operating ratios that are accretive across the board and taken together with our mortgage company, we have the ideal -- we have ideal and sustainable exposure to residential mortgage that produces fee income and balance sheet growth that nicely augment what our core bank is doing. Panacea continues to gain steam and momentum. Loan balances moved higher in the current quarter to $530 million on average compared to $385 million in the same quarter a year ago. Deposits was really impressive, growing at a faster rate, ending at about $132 million in the current quarter, which is about 50% higher than they were a year ago. Importantly, Panacea's cost of deposits reflect a blend of technology, customer service and deep brand endorsement. For the current quarter, their cost of deposits came in at 1.37%, lower than our core banks and compares very nicely to 2.28% in the same quarter a year ago. I have -- obviously, I have a lot of conviction about the kind of value that we're creating here because the industry deeply values traditional community and commercial banking and honestly, rightfully so. And while Panacea and what we're doing here does have somewhat of a fintech flare to it, operating nationwide with deep embedded technology versus physical branches, it's producing dynamite credit results focused on C&I and owner-occupied CRE with excellent yields to one of the most, if not the most coveted customers out there. And it's funding the balance sheet at extremely attractive levels, lower than most established community banks. Strategies like this in the past didn't garner meaningful value because they focus on real easy credit and funded with flimsy or expensive solutions like CDs or institutional borrowings. But Tyler and his team is focused on relationships and technology and a customer experience that's proven to be more meaningful. And lastly, before I turn it to Matt for some more details, a few comments on credit. We noted in the last quarter that we've had a few downgrades that were centered on loans that weren't delinquent but did have weaker prospects and weaker guarantor support. Our negative exposure to 2 office real estate properties in the Northern Virginia market are reflected in our quality numbers, with both being in substandard and one being in nonaccrual. Both properties have improving NOI and strong leasing activity, but tenant improvements -- tenant improvements, leasing commissions and rent abatement have stressed the borrowers' cash levels and their ability to support the property. These properties are ideally situated outside of the district in very desirable locations. And it's important to note that the market here is stable to slightly improving compared to areas inside the District of Columbia. The remainder of our nonaccruals are centered in 2 loans. One is a $7.5 million loan to a private equity-backed company with proven value. Recent capital raises for the company indicate a strong enterprise value that puts us at about 35% loan-to-value. Matt's impairment testing on the company using pretty deeply discounted cash flows, continue to show no impairment on this loan. The other loan is a nationwide operating business with positive debt coverage, that's working several strategic opportunities to either be recapitalized or sold. On both of these loans, the banks working with the borrowers to exit the relationships through sales or refinance. And at this point, we don't believe there's additional losses or costs to be incurred. Outside of these properties, we really have virtually no exposure to office in any of our markets, but especially the D.C. metro area that is still not operating ideally. I don't want to minimize or gloss over any credit issue, but I don't believe we have exposures that should be causing problems or costs going forward. Okay. With that, Matt, I'll turn it to you. Matthew Switzer: Thank you, Dennis. As a reminder, a discussion of our financial results can be found in our press release and investor presentation located on our website and in our 8-K filed with the SEC. Beginning with the balance sheet. Gross loans held for investment increased almost 9% annualized from June 30 to September 30, including the Panacea loans reclassified to held for sale, gross loans would have increased approximately 15% annualized, led by growth in Panacea and mortgage warehouse. Importantly, average earning assets increased 10% annualized in the third quarter, positioning us to fully replace earning assets sold a year ago with the Life Premium Finance sale. Deposits were flat in Q3 due to limited runoff at the end of the quarter after the Fed rate cut, but we're still up 7% annualized using average balances for the quarter. Even more impressive noninterest-bearing deposits increased 10% annualized in the quarter, with a strong contribution from the core bank and mortgage warehouse. As Dennis discussed, our focus has been making sure we execute on the strategies that drive the ROA higher from here, which we've done. Our net interest margin in the third quarter was 3.18%, up from a reported 2.86% last quarter and 2.97% in the year ago period. We had limited impacts on net interest margin and margin -- this quarter from the consumer program and expect that to be the norm from here. The margin was impacted by interest reversals on loans moving to nonaccrual in the quarter and would have been 3.23% on an adjusted basis without those reversals. We're still booking new loans with yields near 7%, and we have a substantial amount of loans repricing later this year and next that will continue to move yields higher and help the margin. The core bank cost of deposits remains very attractive at 173 basis points in the quarter, down 6 basis points linked quarter. In addition, we used the Fed cut in late September as an opportunity to move digital rates down more aggressively by lowering rates of 35 basis points at that time, which should benefit us meaningfully in the fourth quarter. Our provision this quarter was a small release driven by growth in the loan portfolio tied to categories with lower reserve requirements, low core charge-off activity and the release of reserves for moving a portion of the Panacea loans to held for sale. Noninterest income was $12 million in the quarter versus $10.6 million in the second quarter when excluding PFH stock sale-related gains with increased mortgage revenue as the primary driver. Mortgage revenue and profitability bounced back in Q3 with pretax income of approximately $1.9 million versus $0.1 million in the second quarter and which had been impacted by cost tied to new teams onboarded at the end of March. To give you a sense of the scale we're building in mortgage, we funded 59% more loans in September of 2025 than we did in September of 2024. We also closed $26 million of construction of perm loans in the quarter, where we won't see material profitability at closing, but generate attractive gain on sale revenue in a couple of quarters. On the expense side, when you exclude mortgage and Panacea division volatility and nonrecurring items, our core expenses were $21.6 million versus $22.3 million in the second quarter. There are a handful of items described in the earnings release that are onetime in nature but don't rise to the definition of nonrecurring for reporting purposes and totaled approximately $1.8 million, including one more month of technology contract savings. Normalizing for these items, core noninterest expense was approximately $19.8 million, putting us only slightly higher than the year ago quarter. We are laser-focused on driving that number down further even in the face of inflationary pressures that would otherwise move it higher. In summary, as we detailed in the earnings release and investor presentation, our reported ROA was 70 basis points in the third quarter. Adjusting for the expense items we just highlighted, pretax earnings were close to $11 million, and ROA would have been approximately 90 basis points in Q3, with growth and repricing of earning assets, pretax earnings will grow to over $13 million in the near term, which equates to our 1% ROA goal with upside still from there. We're pleased that the third quarter showed meaningful progress on profitability with much fewer -- many fewer onetime items that have masked our core earnings power before. As I stated last quarter, we have substantial tailwinds from here that get us to strong profitability ratios without Herculean efforts just straightforward blocking and tackling. We recognize that one quarter is not considered a trend, but we firmly believe that we are seeing that trend play out and look forward to demonstrating our earnings power from here. With that, operator, we can now open the line for Q&A. Operator: [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Russell Gunther with Stephens. Russell Elliott Gunther: I wanted to begin on loan growth, please. And it would be helpful to get your guys' thoughts on how you're thinking about overall growth for the fourth quarter, given maybe some potential mortgage warehouse seasonality, continued consumer runoff and then thinking ahead into '26 as well in terms of order of magnitude and mix. Dennis Zember: Russell, I'll start, and Matt can -- Matt can correct me, probably. I think on mortgage warehouse, we've got so much potential and so much still kind of maturing there that I think what's probably at scale, we would have more runoff in the fourth quarter. I don't know that we're going to have that same kind of runoff. I don't -- again, we only averaged $200 million or so, I think $210 million in the second quarter -- excuse me, third quarter. I think we can sustain those levels, maybe where we ended the quarter, we might not sustain that. Matt's probably got a little deeper understanding there. I think for Panacea, honestly, we could probably take the Panacea loans to whatever level we want the -- I think an annual production capacity there is probably about what their balance sheet is. We've got some other parties that are going to take some of that production. And Matt and I don't really want Panacea to take over the whole balance sheet. But I think we're ending at $550 million. I think we may sell a little bit of those loans in the fourth quarter to sort of get into some of the flow agreements with the larger bank, the third party. But I think for next year, $150 million or so, I think is definitely possible there. And on the core bank, I think we probably could squeeze out 7%, 8% growth there. I think for all of next year, if you're asking me, I think this point in time next year, we could be comfortably up, call it, 10% to 12%. Matt, what you -- what's your thoughts? Matthew Switzer: Yes, I agree with all that. I mean a lot of our growth this quarter was mortgage warehouse related. We would normally expect seasonality, but as Dennis mentioned, I mean, they're still on the growth path in terms of adding customers and loans. So even though utilization may drop some in the fourth quarter, the additional lines there they're bringing on is going to offset some of that growth. So they'll probably be up some on an average basis in the fourth quarter. Russell Elliott Gunther: Okay. That's great color, guys. And then my next question was in regard to Slide 11 of the deck, kind of 2 parts. One, the timing of when you'd expect to get to that 3.30% margin that you said is average earning asset driven. I think maybe just expand upon what you are referring to when you talk about continued shifts in deposit mix will then become focused. Dennis Zember: Go ahead, Matt. Matthew Switzer: Yes. I mean we'll -- I think we'll be closer to 3.30% margin as we exit this year, so probably first quarter next year. And then the deposit mix change is -- I mean, we've talked about this for a couple of quarters now. And I mean you can see it in the balance sheet results. We are 100% focused on increasing our proportion of noninterest-bearing deposits. We have, I wouldn't say a long-term goal, more of a medium-term goal to have that number closer to 20% of total deposits. It's about 20% in the core bank, but we wanted to be 20% for the entire institution. So '26, that is a focus of ours, just like it has been in '25, getting noninterest-bearing percentages up. So that's really the remixing we're talking about. Dennis Zember: Russell, I would add that if you look at the bank as a whole, we probably -- we have -- there's no probably -- we have more technology, and more strategies focused on driving low-cost deposits at a pretty fast clip than we do on the loan side. And we've got pretty notable loan strategies between warehouse and Panacea and the life business -- life premium business that we sold. But V1BE in and around our markets is driving massive pipelines and massive success. I mean, we've looked -- our peer group is up 5% in checking accounts and we're up 16%. And I'd attribute some of that to what we're getting in the lines of business as well as in the core footprint. So we really believe that our long-term value here of sort of being unique is centered more on the deposit side than the loan side. Right now, we're driving real success in the margin and with replacing the earning assets, as Matt showed you here in this graph. But I think as soon as we sort of tap out on replacing all those assets, the thing that will drive it is what Matt was saying, getting the deposit mix situated right, thanks to some of the technology that we got at play. Operator: [Operator Instructions] And our next question comes from the line of Christopher Marinac with Janney Montgomery Scott. Christopher Marinac: I wanted to ask about deposits. And Dennis, the point you made on deposit costs incrementally with interest rates going down, does that get harder to do? Or does it get more easier or flexible for you to drive more deposits in at kind of the appropriate rate to push up margins? Dennis Zember: I guess it really could go either way. I think the -- you look at our universe or our competition, Chris, I mean, a lot of them are sort of looking at falling rates, the Fed cuts, they're looking at that to be -- I mean the whole industry honestly has been looking at that to be the sort of driver to get some of our margins back. So we suppose -- Matt and I both suppose that the competition is going to be using most of that to get the biggest beta possible. I think the fact that we're driving as many checking accounts into the bank lets us be sort of more aggressive on business money markets, business checking, consumer, even CDs and still sort of maintain a cost of deposits that's at or below our period. And I mean, we're more of a growth bank. So we have to sort of balance where we're bringing in or where we have things priced versus just straight for profitability. So that checking account growth is absolutely key to us keeping deposit flows at the right level. Matt, and I don't want to fund the balance sheet with brokered CDs and institutional borrowings like Federal Home Loan Bank. We want to be core funded. And we don't want that to eat into the margins or the operating leverage we want. The only thing we can do to stay competitive and we're very competitive is are those checking accounts. And as long as we're driving checking counts in a sort of better than 10%, I think we can be very competitive on the rate-oriented products, Chris, and still punch out good growth and good profitability. Christopher Marinac: Got it. That's helpful, Dennis. And I guess, just kind of another point because you've now been doing the digital bank process for several quarters, a couple of years now, are you finding evidence that these are more sticky customers, which is really differentiating Primis in the rest of the pack? Dennis Zember: 100%. And Matt can give you more color here, but I mean our average customer has over $50,000. The average customer, I think we're right, maybe a month from having average customers' deposit relationship for 2 years. Over 90% of our customers have either more than one deposit account with us or more than one product or they refer to a customer. Questionably these are stickier than what the industry believes. Chris, I would still caution you though, we -- these are not customers that are in the branch. These are customers using a digital experience that's by far better than what most banks are rolling out. Still, they're more rate sensitive than the traditional community bank so -- community bank customers. So we're not going to get ahead of ourselves and push -- try to push these rates down to Fed funds minus [ 150 ]. That's not going to be these customers. But we've moved rates 3 or 4 times now, Matt, can correct me. And we've got retention rates over 90%. Matt, help me make sure I'm right on most of that. Matthew Switzer: You're 100% right. And as I've mentioned in my remarks, Chris, we were aggressive after this last Fed cut because we were seeing still growth in balances without any advertising and based on our read of the deposit base, it looked like we were probably a little bit high relative to the rest of the market. So we actually had -- we cut rates a little bit more than the Fed cut in September, and we did see a little bit of runoff, but nowhere near the runoff you would have expected from a deposit base that was truly hot money based or rate sensitive. I mean there were some rate-sensitive customers in there, but frankly, no more than we would have in the core franchise. So we're pleasantly surprised with how sticky these deposits have been as we've lowered rates with the Fed and it's been a very valuable funding source for us. And as we talked about in previous quarters, allowed us to protect the core bank deposit base, which is still very low cost and very sticky. Dennis Zember: Chris, I'd add one more thing. Speaking on a panel a few weeks ago and people were asking about digital. And the industry -- and I mean, I'll be honest, I had this too. The industry believes that kind of digital customers that you never see or touch have some sort of hotness to them in their hot money. Honestly, every customer -- we have 20,000 customers, maybe 25,000 when you include all the lines of business, every single one of those customers has a banker. And every single banker's cell phone is in the hands of every single customer. We're available to them 24/7 is what we pitch. Our bankers and our call center. We offer premium banking products, we offer the full suite of banking products. I mean, yes, the digital products are deposit oriented. But if any of those customers needed anything, loans, deposits, loans, mortgages, HELOCs, anything, we are ready to do this. That's the reason, honestly, that they're sticky. I don't think that the industry is wrong about whether these customers are sticky or not or rate sensitive or not or how rate sensitive. I think we just sort of neutralize that by working hard to -- just to build relationships with these customers and sort of, I guess, I hate to say it, but sort of community bank style. And I think that's been successful. And really, we're proving it out with what Matt just said. Christopher Marinac: Understood. I had a asset quality question, which is the -- and thanks for the information you gave on a couple of loans. Do you see any of those things resolved in the next 2, 3, 4 quarters? And even though it's only a few basis points of margin difference, do you see any of that helping you in the next few quarters? Dennis Zember: The larger C&I -- the C&I property that's sort of the operating business. I think there's a chance that could be resolved -- sold, potentially the business sold or recapped in the fourth quarter, that would improve the margin, obviously, because that one is on nonaccrual and was for the whole quarter. The others are still sort of -- we're still sort of receiving payments and working with the borrowers. I think the real estate deals in Alexandria are not going to be resolved in the current quarter, although I think if you gave us probably a couple of quarters or maybe to the midpoint of next year, just given the leasing activity and Matt and I are personally involved in these loans and in the leasing activity and just to have very relevant right now data. I think by June of next year, given the leasing activity we're seeing, those properties could be strong enough to be and have strong enough debt coverage to at least not be on nonaccrual. Both of the properties right now are at 1x debt coverage on interest on P&I. One is above debt -- one is above 1, one is like [ 105 ] and the other is not. But the leasing activity on the one that's on nonaccrual, I think June of next year, we could have it above 1x debt coverage on a P&I basis. So I would tell you, really, we just got one that could be resolved in the current quarter and the others, I don't -- I mean I hate them being in nonaccrual and such [ and all ], but I believe we're in the best possible place we could be with those. Christopher Marinac: Great. That's good background. And then just last question, just to connect that what you said at the beginning of the call, but the expense number should continue to get better given the operating difference as you outlined in the release, and we'll just see that quarter-to-quarter. I suspect it's not just the fourth quarter phenomenon, but it will go over the next few quarters. Matthew Switzer: Yes. Yes. Operator: [Operator Instructions] And with no further questions, I will now turn the conference back over to Mr. Dennis Zember for closing remarks. Dennis Zember: Okay. Thank you, everybody that's joined our call. Matt and I are available if you have any further comments or questions. And if you don't, I hope everyone has a safe and happy weekend, and we'll talk to you soon. Operator: And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call, and we thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator: Good morning, and welcome to Kinsale Capital Group's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. Before we get started, let me remind everyone that through the course of the teleconference, Kinsale's management may make comments that reflect their intentions, beliefs and expectations for the future. As always, these forward-looking statements are subject to certain risk factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially. These risk factors are listed in the company's various SEC filings, including the 2024 annual report on Form 10-K, which should be reviewed carefully. The company has furnished a Form 8-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission that contains the press release announcing its second quarter results. Kinsale's management may also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures in the call today. A reconciliation of GAAP to these measures can be found in the press release, which is available at the company's website at www.kinsalecapitalgroup.com. I will now turn the conference over to Kinsale's Chairman and CEO, Mr. Michael Kehoe. Please go ahead, sir. Michael Kehoe: Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Bryan Petrucelli, our CFO, Brian Haney, our President and COO; and Stuart Winston, our EVP and CUO, Chief Underwriting Officer, are joining me on the call this morning. We announced some management changes last night, the most significant of which is Brian Haney's recent election to the Board of Directors and the announcement of his retirement and new role as Senior Adviser beginning next year. We congratulate him on his election and are encouraged that he will continue to have a prominent role in the governance and direction of Kinsale. Brian and I have worked together for almost 30 years at three different E&S companies. He was one of the original founders of Kinsale and has made tremendous contributions to our success over the almost 17 years we have been in business. It's been a great run. And needless to say, we are fortunate that he will continue contributing to Kinsale as a Director and as a Senior Adviser with a focus on investor communications. I'd also like to congratulate Stuart Winston on his promotion to Executive Vice President and Chief Underwriting Officer. Stuart and his team have delivered some of the best underwriting results in the industry. So this recognition is well earned, and under his leadership, we have great expectations for continued profit and growth in the future. In the third quarter 2025, Kinsale's operating earnings per share increased by 24% and gross written premium grew by 8.4% over the third quarter of 2024. For the quarter, the company posted a combined ratio of 74.9% and a 9-month operating return on equity of 25.4%. Our book value per share has increased by 25.8% since the year-end 2024, and our float has increased by 20%. E&S market conditions were steady in the third quarter, generally competitive with our growth rate varying from one market segment to another with our overall growth rate at 8.4%. Our Commercial Property division saw premium dropped by 8% in the third quarter compared to a 17% drop in the second quarter. The overall third quarter growth rate, excluding our Commercial Property division was 12.3%. And Brian Haney is going to provide some commentary on the market here in a moment. Kinsales' disciplined underwriting and low-cost business model is a consistent winner in an industry where the customers are intensely focused on cost. As the E&S market has become more competitive over the last 2 years, Kinsales' efficiency has become a more significant competitive advantage, by allowing us to deliver competitive policy terms to our customers, without compromising our margins. Likewise, in a moment in the P&C cycle characterized by loose underwriting standards, Kinsales' control of its underwriting process and superior data and analytics helps deliver consistent and attractive results. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Bryan Petrucelli. Bryan Petrucelli: Thanks, Mike. As Mike just noted, we continue to generate great results, with net income and net operating earnings, both increasing by 24% quarter-over-quarter. The 74.9% combined ratio for the quarter included 3.7 points from net favorable prior year loss reserve development, compared to 2.8 points last year with less than 1 point in CAT losses this year compared to 3.8 points in the third quarter of last year. We continue to take a cautious approach to releasing reserves. Gross written premium grew by 8.4% for the quarter, while net earned premium grew by 17.8%, which was higher than the gross written premium due to an increase in retention levels upon renewal of our reinsurance program on June 1. We produced a 21% expense ratio in the third quarter compared to 19.6% last year. Higher expense ratio is attributable to lower ceding commissions, generated on the company's Casualty and Commercial Property quota share reinsurance agreements, as a result of the higher reinsurance retention levels that I just mentioned. On the investment side, net investment income increased by 25.1% in the third quarter over last year, as a result of continued growth in the investment portfolio generated from strong operating cash flows. Kinsales' flow, mostly unpaid losses and unearned premium grew to $3 billion at September 30 up from $2.5 billion at the year-end 2024. The annual gross return was 4.3% for the first 9-months of this year and consistent with last year. New money yields are averaging slightly below 5%, with an average duration of 3.6 years on the company's fixed maturity investment portfolio. And lastly, diluted operating earnings per share continues to improve and was $5.21 per share for the quarter, compared to $4.20 per share for the third quarter of 2024. And with that, I'll pass it over to Brian Haney. Brian Haney: Thanks, Brian. First, let me say it's been an absolute honor and privilege to have worked at Kinsale for the last 17 years. There's no better E&S company in the business, and there's no better group of people to work with. Kinsale has come a long way from its first days in 2009 when we were just starting out with Bryan Petrucelli, Mike, myself as well as Bill Kenney, [ Emery Morrison ] and Ed Desch, who I see is on the phone call today. I'm grateful for the opportunities I've been giving by Mike and the Board over the years. I'm proud to have played whatever part I could in the success of Kinsale. It's a tremendous honor to have the opportunity to serve on this Board with so many talented Directors, whom I've worked with over the years, and I'm really pleased that I will continue to be associated with this great company. And I am very confident in our future. We have built an amazingly deep bench. We have great young executives like Stuart and many others like him. The investors should rest assured that this company is in great hands and will continue to be going forward. With that said, on to business. The E&S market remains competitive, as Mike said, that the intensity varies by division. The shared layered Commercial Property continues to be very competitive. But it appears we hit an inflection point sometime early in the third quarter, perhaps late in the second, where the rate of decline is abating. When you look at all the Property business in total, including the Small Property, Agribusiness Property and in the Marine, the book actually grew in the third quarter. In other areas, we're seeing the most growth in Commercial Auto, Entertainment, Energy and Allied Health. Although the market is competitive, our model of low expenses and absolute control over the underwriting and claims handling works well in any market. I would argue it works better in a competitive market because it makes our expense ratio more telling, also the fastest-growing participants in the market today are largely funding companies, whose risk-bearing partners must contend with expense ratios often double ours or higher. And that math isn't going to work out for them. Submission growth was 6% for the quarter, which is down from 9% in the first quarter. That decline is driven by our Commercial Property division. Our pricing trends are similar to the Amwins Index, which reported an overall 0.4% decrease. Commercial Property rates are still declining, but we feel we have reached that inflection point, as I mentioned, where the rates are -- rate declines are stabilizing, and I expect we will see rates in the Commercial Property market, moderate going forward. Overall, we remain optimistic. Our results are good. Our growth prospects are good and as the low-cost provider in our space, we have a durable competitive advantage that should allow us to continue to gradually take market share from our higher expense competitors, while continuing to deliver strong returns and build wealth for our investors. And with that, I will turn it back over to Mike. Michael Kehoe: Thanks, Brian. Operator, we're now ready for any questions in the queue. Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Bob Huang from Morgan Stanley. Jian Huang: So Brian, congratulations on the new role and the retirement. But just maybe if we go into your business outside of Commercial Property, can you maybe comment on where you think the future opportunities would be? Especially given it seems like there's a little bit of a growth deceleration for the quarter. Just kind of curious outside of Commercial Property, what are the areas that you think that are very attractive for you? And what are the areas you think you want to pullback a little bit? Brian Haney: Well, I think we've got opportunity across the whole book. I would say some of our newer areas that we've developed recently would be the Transportation segment and the Agribusiness segment. But I think there's still a great opportunity in Casualty. And then some of the other property-related lines, I think there's still a great opportunity, high-value homeowners and our Personal Lines, it is an area we're putting a lot of emphasis into. We think that's a great opportunity. So I think it's really by the spread. There's a lot of different places we can grow. Michael Kehoe: Yes. For the quarter, all of our Property Lines, except for the Large Commercial Property division, all the other property-focused lines grew at a double-digit clip. So I would reiterate what Brian said. We're pretty confident. Jian Huang: That's very helpful. My second question is with regards to technology, obviously, that's one of your core competencies here. But just curious if you can give us a little bit of color in terms of new tech innovation and implementation into the business? And then just curious as to how you're incorporating emerging technology into your business and where are the areas you feel that would be advantageous for Kinsale going forward? Michael Kehoe: Well, Bob, this is Mike. When we started the business 17 years ago, we talked about making tech, a core competency of our company alongside of the underwriting and the claim handling. And I think we've done that. We build our own enterprise system over the years, took a long time. And about 2 or so years ago, we started what we call target state architecture, which is a complete rewrite of that entire enterprise system. It's an enormous undertaking, but it kind of puts us in a position to really speed up the implementation of new technologies and whatnot. So that target state is an enormous project. We're always enhancing and expanding our product line, that involves our technology department. We've been making ample use of the new AI tools that have come out, both in our IT department, as well as underwriting and claims, trying to drive automation in our business process. So I mean there's a there's a million ways, but I think it goes a long way to explaining why we're able to operate at such a significant cost advantage over our competitors. And I think a lot of it is, hey, we've got a really well-designed enterprise systems, specifically for our company. We don't have legacy software going back 20, 30, 40 years. We don't have thousands of legacy applications. I think we're just in a really attractive spot. Operator: Our next question comes from Michael Phillips from Oppenheimer. Michael Phillips: I wanted to touch on one line of business, the construction liability line. I was curious, was there any change in assumptions in that segment that affected your current year loss pick? Michael Kehoe: I don't know that there were any changes there specifically. We do a quarterly review of our loss reserves by stat line of business. And that goes -- we're in our, I think, 16th accident year. We've got about a dozen lines of business. So there's a high degree of complexity in that analysis -- could very well have picked up some adjustments in the construction, but I just don't know off the top of my head. I think in general, we feel great about the quarter. I think our losses continue to come in below our expectations. There's a little bit of variability in the loss ratios when you roll everything together, and I think that's normal. But again, we feel really positive about the loss performance. Michael Phillips: Okay. And then second one would be on your Excess Casualty segment. Could you talk about that segment, what you're seeing? Is there any growth opportunities there? And what you're seeing maybe for loss trends in that segment? Stuart Winston: Yes. Michael, this is Stuart. We're still seeing good opportunities in Excess Casualty. Rates are holding strong. We're seeing some pressure in the market at the high excess attachment points, where those are being more attractive for various competitors. But that's typically not where we play. We're typically in the lead or the first $10 million on most of our placements. So there's still a good opportunity for growth and rates are holding strong, where we participate in the market. Operator: Our next question comes from Mike Zaremski from BMO Capital Markets. Michael Zaremski: Going back to Casualty, but broader brush on all Casualty ex-Property, which is kind of your core business. You saw a bit of a sequential de-cel in premium growth there. Any color you can offer on just the state of the marketplace, Casualty-specific, pricing? You talked about MGAs in the past as well. Is that still -- are they still just as competitive? Michael Kehoe: I'll start, Mike, and then I'll maybe get Stuart to make a few comments. But I would just remind you that we write Casualty business across many specific underwriting divisions, each one focused on a different industry segment or coverage, and they never move in tandem, right? There's always variability as you go from one area to the next. But in general, I think things are still going well. Stuart Winston: Yes. The long-tail Casualty lines, we're seeing moderate competition, but there's a lot of rational actors out there with the adverse development over the last couple of years in the market. But there's segments like -- areas like Excess Casualty, Social Services and the Allied Health Group that are still really strong and the market will experience some dislocation, the same with Premises Liability, so General Casualty, Entertainment groups like that, it's still a very strong market there for growth. Michael Zaremski: Okay. I mean, I guess that's very helpful. So if we look at the Casualty trend, though it's still kind of -- it's decelerating from a growth perspective. I'm not saying growth, we want profitability, not growth. But is your view -- you shared your view that shared layer, things are becoming less negative, I guess, from a pricing standpoint, I'm assuming. Do you think the Casualty is also getting less competitive or it will remain -- increasing competition will remain kind of impacting the top line? Michael Kehoe: Mike, it's Mike again. I would say we're in a very competitive period in the insurance cycle. Again, it varies a little bit, division by division. But I think the -- you've seen over the last 2 years, the Kinsale growth rate has kind of come in from kind of an extraordinary 40% rate to this quarter's high single digits. I think we've reiterated many times that over the cycle, we think 10% to 20% is a good conservative estimate of our growth potential. I think that's probably the best commentary we can offer. I mean it's a diverse product line. It's a very competitive market. We've got a very competitive business strategy with the control we exercise over our underwriting. It drives a more accurate process. And then when you look at the cost advantage we have over competitors, it's extraordinary. So I think we're in a great spot. We were encouraged that the growth rate going from the second to the third quarter ticked up from 5% to 8.4%. Brian Haney highlighted the fact that if you took the Commercial Property out, that put us in the low double digits. Admittedly, that was down from -- it went from 14% to 12%. But to me, that's just kind of normal variability quarter-by-quarter. I wouldn't read too much into that 2-point decline. Michael Zaremski: Okay. That's helpful. And just to sneak one last one in. Part of your -- I think part of your special sauce, I believe, uniquely allows Kinsale to, I guess, maybe not need to [ profit share ] commissions to some of your broker partners. Is it ever a consideration, especially in more competitive times like today to rethink that strategy or that's not on the table? Michael Kehoe: The profit commissions are typically associated with delegated underwriting, right? So many companies, especially in the SME area, aren't able to handle the volume of transactions internally or for whatever reason, right? It's very common to outsource underwriting to MGAs and MGUs. And I think a lot of companies try to put some sort of profit or growth contingency into the compensation mix for the broker in order to better align incentives. We're not in that space, and we're not considering it. Our business model is to control the underwriting, provide the best customer service in the industry. I think we also offer the broadest risk appetite. So a lot of the business we write, falls out of the delegated or binding programs that are in the marketplace. So really for those reasons, no, we're not considering a change in our compensation model. Operator: Our next question comes from Mark Hughes from Truist. Mark Hughes: Congratulations, Brian, and also Stuart. Current accident year loss ratio was up a little bit. Was that mix? Was that competitive pressure? What would you say that was caused by? Michael Kehoe: Mark, I would just kind of write that off to normal variability. The overall numbers are phenomenal. The reported losses are coming in below expectations. We're always trying to be cautious with our reserving. You can look around the industry. There's a lot of examples of companies that are too optimistic in their loss reserving. We never want to be in that group. So can I would look at the loss performance is good news. Admittedly, it was up a couple of points. But to me, that's just normal kind of variability. Mark Hughes: Yes. Bryan Petrucelli, the ceded premium at 17% and then the expense ratio at 21%, given the kind of the reinsurance structure at this point to ceding commissions? Are those reasonable starting point for the next few quarters? Bryan Petrucelli: I think so, Mark. So the first full quarter that we've had with the new reinsurance terms. So it's a pretty good match for you. I would say mix of business is always going to drive a little bit of variability in that. But I think as we sit now, as good a guess as you can -- we can give you. Mark Hughes: Very good. And then one final question. The state E&S data in some of the coastal states, Florida, Texas, New York, it looked like your growth is a little faster there kind of implying that maybe in other states, growth was a little slower. Is that a correct perception? Is there anything we should read into that or the non-coastal state perhaps a little more competitive? Is there anything to think about there? Brian Haney: Mark, this is Brian Haney. I wouldn't read too much into it. We don't -- we don't know exactly how those numbers are calculated, and we don't do anything to try to match them up with our own data. Michael Kehoe: I think it's better to look at those state tax numbers over a number of months. I think there's a little bit more credibility to further look back. Mark Hughes: Well, if we put those numbers to the side, we say there's any sort of dynamic where non-coastal, the kind of those traditional E&S states, the New York, California, Texas, Florida. Are they -- are you seeing more opportunity there perhaps than elsewhere? Or would you not see it that way? Stuart Winston: I think it stayed relatively the same since Mark, it's Stuart. Relatively the same since we've been in business with obviously, the core E&S states are going to the largest bulk of our business. But I haven't seen a mix in that. Or change in that. Operator: Our next question comes from Andrew Andersen from Jefferies. Andrew Andersen: I think maybe 5 to 7 years ago, you kind of had talked about how there were certain areas you don't write like public company D&O or trucking. Maybe just bigger picture, pockets that 5 to 7 years ago, you did not write and now you're kind of rethinking that and perhaps see some new opportunities for growth? Michael Kehoe: Well, there's a bunch of examples. We've made a bigger push into homeowners. We started an Agribusiness Division. We started an Aviation Division, Ocean Marine, we're always enhancing the product line. Brian Haney: Yes. We're always looking at new products not that we don't, right that. We want to write it on our terms and our pricing to maintain our margin. So if you look at commercial auto, - we write a lot of auto adjacent, wheels adjacent business, but we will look at some small fleets at tighter terms. It's just not the large trucking schedule. So we will take a look at these out, but it's going to be a little more control. Andrew Andersen: Got it. And on the net commission ratio, about 10.5% in the quarter and recognizing there was some change to reinsurance, but the direct commission was pretty much unchanged. But if we go back a few years when the mix was more tilted towards casualty, it was kind of in a 12% to 13% range. Could we see it getting back up to that level? Or are there some offsets within there that might help keep it maybe around 11% or so? Bryan Petrucelli: Again, I think the 10.7% is as good a guide as we can give you. If we did have a change in mix of business, you could see that move around a little bit. Whether that goes up to 12% or 13%, who knows. But I think the best guide we can give you is what we have here for this first full quarter since those agreements have been in place. Operator: Our next question comes from Andrew Kligerman from TD Cowen. Andrew Kligerman: Congrats to Brian and Stuart. And first question is on the net reserve release of $10 million or 3.7 points. Just curious as to what the kind of mix on that was short tail versus casualty maybe on the casualty side vintage. Just kind of curious on the breakdown of that release. Michael Kehoe: Andrew, this is Mike. I would say, without getting too specific, the last couple of quarters, maybe even the last 2 years, including the quarter, most of the release -- the releases have been disproportionately on our first-party business. So short-tail business like property. Andrew Kligerman: Got it. Okay. And I've been noticing when talking to some of your competitors, some of them starting up micro and small, maybe even mid businesses. But I'm seeing a lot of micro and start-ups in the E&S area. Could you talk a little bit about maybe the number of competitors you're seeing in that area versus, say, 3 years ago? Michael Kehoe: I think we have more competitors today than 3 years ago, but it's not just insurance companies. There are hundreds and hundreds of MGAs that have started in the last several years. There used to be one fronting company. Somebody told me the other day, they're now 30. So a lot of capital has come into the industry, and there's just a lot more competition that reflects that. And that's certainly not new. I mean, it's always been a cyclical business, and we're hardwired to compete and win in this environment, I think. Andrew Kligerman: Got it. And the last one, in your commentary, you talked about rates in property. I heard the word stabilizing. I heard moderate. Could you possibly put some numbers around where rates were in property? I think you said that it started to inflect at the end of the second quarter. Maybe where were rates early in the second quarter going? And maybe where are they now? Just to kind of get some numbers around the commentary? Brian Haney: I don't have the exact numbers in front of me. I would have said it was double digits in the second quarter, down. If I had to guess now, I would say it's probably single digits, down. Let's call it, high single. I don't have it in front of me. So that's just an absolute speculative guess. But I do get the sense that at least in the market we're in, you have seen that inflection point, and I would expect to see that trend continue. Like I think it's going to normalize relatively quickly. Operator: Your next question comes from Ryan Tunis from Cantor Fitzgerald. Ryan Tunis: I guess just a follow-up on the underlying loss ratio. It sounded like you attributed kind of the 2-point year-over-year increase to just normal variability. Does that imply that we're not yet seeing pressure on that ratio coming from property lines? Michael Kehoe: No, we're not seeing pressure on our loss ratio from property lines because we've over-performed in property. That's why a disproportionate amount of the reserve redundancy has come from the short-tail lines like property. We've had great experience on property. And I think that's a tailwind. I think where we're being more cautious, and it's not because we're seeing any kind of a negative trend. It's just that on long-tail casualty, there's a higher degree of uncertainty. It just takes time for those accident years to mature, and coming out of a period a few years ago where we had a significant uptick in inflation, all sorts of supply chain disruptions with COVID. We saw some of our long-tail lines develop a little bit higher and a little bit later than we would have anticipated. And starting several years ago, we've addressed that with much more conservative loss picks. And so we're maintaining that conservatism to make sure that we -- we always have more than enough. We want our reserves to kind of develop favorably year by year. And when that happens, it just has a very therapeutic effect on the financial performance of our business. Ryan Tunis: That makes sense. And then I guess just a follow-up on the property. Yes. I guess it makes sense naturally that there'll be less price pressure in the third quarter simply because there's fewer like Florida [ shared and layer ] renewals. I mean to what extent is the improved pricing environment just sort of a function of seasonal mix? If you will. Michael Kehoe: Well, I'm going to start by just saying we didn't say it improved. It deteriorated at a slower rate. Brian Haney: Yes. I would characterize it more as rates were going down so fast that -- the faster rates go down, the quicker they're going to normalize, because the industry can't go around giving double-digit rate increases indefinitely. And I think we've reached that point where you're starting -- you saw that second order derivative turn positive. So I don't think it's based on the third quarter being less hurricane-intensive. Operator: Our next question comes from Joe Tumillo from Bank of America. Joseph Tumillo: Most of my questions have been answered, but I guess the first question is kind of thinking about. I appreciate the submission rate was decelerating a little bit to commercial property. If we exclude commercial property, has the submission rate kind of remained steady? Or has that also kind of decreased along with the ex property premiums? Brian Haney: It's closer to around 9%, excluding Commercial Properties. Joseph Tumillo: Okay. Great. And then the other question, just thinking about -- I saw you guys kind of stepped up the share repurchases this quarter from the $10 million from the previous ones. just kind of thinking, was that just more opportunistic where you saw the share price going? Or is that more of a function of kind of lower growth and a lot of the cash flow? I know you guys have mentioned before about kind of keeping the business kind of efficient capital. Michael Kehoe: I think it's the latter, Joe. We're generating mid-teens ROEs on a year-to-date basis and I think our year-to-date growth rate is high single digits. So we're definitely producing a lot of excess capital. And our first goal is always to grow the business. And then secondarily to that, the last couple of years, we've been looking at a very small dividend and a very small share repurchase, but I think both of those could continue to grow. Operator: Our next question comes from Pablo Singzon from JPMorgan. Pablo Singzon: So first question, with premium growth having slowed, how do you think about other underwriting expenses over the next 1 to 2 years, right? So I think over the past several years, it's been a good story. But given that growth has slowed, are you managing that line to sort of trail the growth in premiums? Or just given where you think opportunities might lie, there's a chance that you might see some degradation as you're building out new opportunity? Michael Kehoe: I think we have always worked like crazy to be as efficient as we can as a business. Given the industry that we compete in. And I think the other underwriting expenses will gradually come down over time as we drive productivity gains in the business through technology, et cetera. I don't think it's going to be sudden, but I think a gradual decline is what investors should expect. Pablo Singzon: Okay. And then, I guess, second question also related to expenses, right? So clearly, Kinsale has an expense advantage over the rest of the industry. I'd be curious to hear your thoughts about whether or not you're willing to trade some of that expense ratio to generate higher premiums and underwriting income? And I guess even if that trade is possible to begin with, right? Or are you sort of happy with the current configuration of pricing, profitability and volume? Michael Kehoe: Look, I mean, I think there's just a clear recognition that the customers we serve, principally small business owners, are intensely focused on limiting how much money they spend on insurance. And so we're doing everything we can to be as efficient as possible, to give them competitively priced insurance policies but also to protect our margins. So I don't see an advantageous trade where we would deliberately raise our costs, become less competitive and somehow that's going to net a better opportunity for our company. I was just going to say, we're going to continue to work -- do everything we can to be the efficient insurance provider in the E&S space. Pablo Singzon: Got you. And then just one small one. On reinsurance retention, do you think that could go up again in the next couple of years or you don't see any change from current status quo? Bryan Petrucelli: Yes. Again, I think what you're seeing this quarter is our best guess. Now if we had some dramatic mix of business, it could move one way or the other. Michael Kehoe: But our retention has changed many times over the years. Right. We've taken a bigger net position over and over again, and that's just consistent with our growth as a business. Operator: Our last question comes from Casey Alexander from Compass Point. Casey Alexander: Yes. And congrats to Brian and Stuart, particularly to Brian on his retirement. I'm sure that's something that we all look forward to. So not to beat a dead horse. Not to beat a dead horse, but Brian, I am particularly taken by your comments that the property rate decline is stabilizing, simply because the 20 years of covering property in the Southeast particularly in the Southeast U.S. when you have a year like this, it has a particularly low level of cat activity, at least up-to-date fingers crossed, right? You never know what happens in the month of November. It tends to attract alternative forms of capital that see very low loss ratios and think that they can get into the business and they tend to get into the business in commercial, because its than quicker than residential, and it's irrational. And so I just wondered, does that not concern you that you're possibly going to see alternative capital in 2026 enter the property market and leading with some irrational price structures? Brian Haney: You might be right. I was kind of referring more to the dynamics in the third quarter. So who knows? Operator: We have no further questions in queue. I'd like to turn the call back over to Michael Kehoe for any closing remarks. Michael Kehoe: All right. Well, we appreciate everybody joining us and look forward to speaking with you again here in a few months. Have a great day. Operator: This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator: Good morning, and welcome to Procter & Gamble's quarter end conference call. Today's event is being recorded for replay. This discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements. If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections. As required by Regulation G, Procter & Gamble needs to make you aware that during the discussion, the company will make a number of references to non-GAAP and other financial measures. Procter & Gamble believes these measures provide investors with useful perspective on underlying business trends. and has posted on its Investor Relations website, www.pginvestor.com, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Chief Financial Officer, Andre Schulten. Andre Schulten: Good morning. Joining me on the call today is John Chevalier, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. I will start with an overview of results for the first quarter of fiscal '26 and spend a few minutes on strategy and innovation, and we'll close with guidance for fiscal '26 and then take your questions. First quarter results reflect strong execution of our integrated strategy in a difficult geopolitical competitive and consumer environment. This marks 40 consecutive quarters of organic sales growth and keeps us on track for the tenth consecutive fiscal year of core EPS growth. Organic sales rounded up to 2%. Volume was in line with prior year. Pricing and mix were each up 1%. Growth continues to be broad-based across categories and regions, with 8 of 10 product categories growing or holding organic sales. Skin & Personal Care led the growth, up high single digits. Hair Care, Grooming, Personal Health Care, Home Care and Baby Care each grew low singles. Oral Care and Feminine Care were in line with prior year, and Fabric Care and Family Care were each down low single digits. 6 of 7 regions held or grew organic sales. Focus markets were up more than 1%. Organic sales in North America were up 1%. Consumption in our categories decelerated throughout the quarter, with unit volumes essentially flat for both markets and P&G brands. Price mix added a point of growth. The pricing for innovation and supply chain costs that was announced on June 15 went into effect on September 15. This caused some trade inventory volatility in the quarter, but shipments were largely in line with offtake for the full quarter. European focus markets organic sales were equal to prior year with strong growth in France and Spain, offset by a softer period in Germany and Italy. Greater China organic sales grew 5%, another quarter of sequential improvement and positive momentum. 6 of 7 categories grew organic sales in quarter 1 with Pampers and SK-II each growing double digits. This progress is the result of interventions made across the digital commerce and distributor business, along with strong innovation and execution of the integrated strategy. Enterprise markets grew more than 1% for the quarter. Latin America organic sales were up 7%, with strong growth across Mexico, Brazil and the balance of smaller markets in the region. Organic sales in the European enterprise region were in line with prior year and the Asia Pacific, Middle East, Africa enterprise region was down low singles. Global aggregate market share was down 30 basis points, 24 of our top 50 category country combinations held or grew share for the quarter. On the bottom line, core earnings per share were $1.99, up 3% versus prior year. On a currency-neutral basis, core EPS also increased 3%. Core gross margin was down 50 basis points and core operating margin was equal to prior year. Strong productivity improvement of 230 basis points with healthy reinvestment in innovation and demand creation. Currency-neutral core operating margin was up 40 basis points. Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 102%, a very strong Q1 results. We returned $3.8 billion of cash to shareowners this quarter, EUR 2.55 billion in dividends and EUR 1.25 billion in share repurchases. In summary, a solid quarter to start the year in what continues to be a challenging environment, including heightened competitive activity in the U.S. and in Europe. Moving on to strategy. Given the market and competitive challenges we face now is the time for increased investment in and flawless execution of our integrated growth strategy consumer firmly at the center of everything we do. We will drive superiority in every part of our portfolio across all value tiers where we play, all retail channels and all consumer segments we serve to grow categories, provide value to consumers and customers and create value for shareowners. We will strengthen the integration of all vectors of superiority starting with a very strong innovation program this year, building stronger core brand propositions and growing bigger adjacencies and forms to enhance consumer delight, core and more. In U.S. Fabric Care, we recently started shipments of Tide's biggest upgrade to liquid detergent in 20 years. Tide's boosted formula combines its ultimate grease and stain fighting technology with an advanced perfume innovation, resulting in laundry that's cleaner, whiter, brighter and fresher. The significant innovation on liquid detergent strengthens the core of the Tide franchise as we continue plans for expansion of Tide evo, our new laundry detergent developed on our breakthrough Functional fibers platform. evo has started its first stage of national expansion with an online launch of Tide evo Free & Gentle. evo offers superior cleaning performance in a recyclable package, no plastic bottles or water. In test market stores, evo sales have been highly incremental to category growth and retailer demand has been well above initial expectations. We're in the process of adding manufacturing capacity to prepare for an eventual national launch. We have a strong bundle of innovation launching across U.S. Baby Care business -- the U.S. Baby Care business this fall, including improvements on Pampers, Easy Ups, Swaddlers, Cruisers, and the first phase of restage to our mid-tier Pampers Baby Dry line. Each are important upgrades to drive consumer trial and delight, especially considering the ramp-up in competitive promotional activity in the category. In Greater China, premium body wash innovation on both the Safeguard and Olay brands drove 9% Personal Care growth in the quarter. Safeguard Detox Body Wash is designed to provide superior deep for cleansing and skin transformation. The recent restage across all elements of the superiority has accelerated market conversion from bars to liquids and from basic products to premium offerings. Olay premium body wash launched in July, contains Olay facial skin essence and the first ever sparkling liquid to provide visible skin benefits and an unforgettable showering experience. Since launch, the new premium line has grown over 30% in off-line channels and 80% online, driving category growth and Olay share growth. In Latin America, Personal Healthcare grew organic sales plus 15% in quarter 1, driven by improved execution of the integrated superiority strategy. The combination of strong product and packaging innovation on the Vicks brand compelling consumer communication, strong retail execution and superior consumer value drove both growth across markets and the region. Brazil led the growth up nearly 30%, along with growth in Mexico, Peru, Colombia and smaller distributor markets. Our innovation program is designed to strengthen the core brand propositions combined with full media and in-store support across the portfolio. where we add new elements to our brands, like we are doing with Tide evo, we ensure the more is sufficient in size to warrant full brand communication and go-to-market support. Superiority integrated across all 5 vectors. We will continue to accelerate productivity in all areas of our operation, including the recently announced restructuring work to fuel investments in superiority, mitigate cost and currency headwinds and drive margin expansion. We have an objective for growth savings in cost of goods sold of up to $1.5 billion before tax, enabled by platform programs with global application across categories with Supply Chain 3.0. We have line of sight to savings for improved marketing productivity, more efficiency, greater effectiveness, avoiding excess frequency and reducing waste while increasing reach. We're taking targeted steps to reduce overhead as we digitize more of our operations. Visibility to more savings opportunities is increasing as the businesses continue to build their 3-year rolling productivity master plans and as we accelerate productivity with our restructuring efforts. We will continue to actively manage our portfolio across markets and brands to strengthen our ability to generate U.S. dollar-based returns in daily use categories where performance drives brand choice. The portfolio choices we are making as part of the restructuring program include different go-to-market choices in some geographies and surgical exits of some categories, brands and product forms in individual markets. We've announced several steps so far, redesigning our business model in Pakistan to an import model with local distributors managing trade relationships, discontinuing laundry detergent bars in India and the Philippines, exiting several low-tier oral care products in some enterprise markets, focusing the Olay brand on the most productive European markets, and streamlining our grooming device portfolio and focus and enterprise markets. These steps are aimed at accelerating growth as we move further through the restructuring program. Also, these portfolio moves enable us to make related interventions in our supply chain, rightsizing right-locating production to drive efficiencies, faster innovation, cost reduction and even more reliable and resilient supply. As part of the 2-year program, we are making additional organization process and technology changes to enable an even more agile, empowered and accountable organization, making roles broader, team smaller and faster and work more fulfilling and more efficient, actively reducing, eliminating or automating internal work processes, supporting teams with data and technology to increase capacity and capability to focus on integrated plans to deliver superior propositions to our consumers versus spending time internally. We expect to reduce up to 7,000 nonmanufacturing roles or up to 15% of our current nonmanufacturing workforce over this fiscal year and fiscal '27. We're making very good progress with organization designs to deliver this objective. While not easy, we firmly believe this will further empower our highly capable and agile organization that is ready to step forward to create value for our consumers, customers and shareowners. We will continue our efforts to constructively disrupt ourselves, our industry, changing, adapting, creating new ideas, technologies and capabilities that will extend our competitive advantage. These strategic choices across portfolio superiority, productivity, constructive disruption and our organization will continue to reinforce and build on each other. We remain confident in our strategy and its importance, especially in challenging times to drive market growth and to deliver balanced growth and value creation. Long-term focus on the strength of our brands and categories is the best way to position ourselves for stronger growth when the economic climate and consumer confidence improves. This starts with a strong innovation plan and healthy investment to drive trial and user growth, the plan we are executing. As we said in the July earnings call, there are times when bigger steps are needed to both the growth and value creation. The teams are on it. Moving on to guidance for fiscal 2026. As you saw in our press release this morning, we're maintaining all guidance ranges for the fiscal year. Organic sales growth of in line to plus 4%. Global market growth for our portfolio footprint is around 2% on a value basis at the center of our guidance range. As a reminder, this guidance includes a 30 to 50 basis point headwind from product and market exits that are part of restructuring work. As we consider phasing of top line growth, recall that Q2 last year benefited from 2 spikes in orders related to port strikes. The actual port strike that took place early October and the concern of another strike in January, these dynamics will likely result in quarter 2 this year being the softest growth quarter for the year with stronger growth in the back half. On the bottom line, core EPS growth, in line to plus 4%, which equates to a range of $6.83 to $7.09 per share or $6.96, up 2% in the center of the range. While we delivered strong EPS growth in quarter 1, we expect modest earnings growth over the balance of the year as investments in innovation and competitiveness increase, particularly in the U.S. and in Europe. This outlook includes a commodity cost headwind of approximately $100 million after tax and a foreign exchange tailwind of approximately $300 million after tax. Our fiscal '26 outlook now includes approximately $500 million before tax and higher costs from tariffs. While this is an improvement to the isolated tariff impact. Keep in mind that these -- that there are other offsetting impacts, including related supply chain investments and adjustments to pricing plans also assumed in our guidance. Below the operating line, we continue to expect modestly higher interest expense versus last fiscal year and a core effective tax rate in the range of 20% to 21% for fiscal '26 combined a $250 million after-tax headwind to earnings growth. We are forecasting adjusted free cash flow productivity in the range of 85% to 90% for the year. This includes an increase in capital spending as we add capacity in several categories, and as we incur the cash cost from the restructuring work. We expect to pay around $10 billion in dividends and to repurchase approximately $5 billion in common stock, combined a plan to return roughly $15 billion of cash to shareowners in fiscal '26. This outlook is based on current market growth estimates commodity prices and foreign exchange rates. Significant additional currency weakness, commodity or other cost increases, geopolitical disruptions, major supply chain disruptions or store closures are not anticipated within the guidance ranges. So again, a solid start to the year, growing sales and earnings and returning strong levels of cash to shareowners as we look to strengthen investments in demand creation throughout the balance of the fiscal year. We continue to believe the best path to sustainable balance growth is to double down on the strategy, excellent execution of an integrated set of market constructive strategies delivered with a focus on balanced top and bottom line growth and value creation, starting with a commitment to deliver irresistibly superior propositions to consumers and retail partners. We are taking proactive steps to improve the execution of the strategy and our ability to deliver our growth and value-creation objectives. With that, we'll be happy to take your questions. Operator: [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Dara Mohsenian of Morgan Stanley. Dara Mohsenian: So I just wanted to touch on the restructuring you announced back in June, given you're now a few months into putting the initial plans into place. A, just how do you think the organizational changes are being received internally by your workforce, given there's a significant reorg and also rationalization of the job roles at P&G? And then just b, the context externally is a more difficult top line environment in general in CPG, that's also volatile. So I just love a high-level overview of what the reorg does for the organization and P&G's competitiveness relative to that challenging broader industry landscape. Andre Schulten: Dara, thanks for the question. Yes. So let me both -- take both elements here in turn, starting with the progress we are making. We are right now perfectly on track on all elements of the restructuring execution. This is never easy, especially when we're talking about reducing our enrollment. I think the organization is taking it in stride because the mission is clear. We have now constructive plans in every business around the world on which roles to reduce and how to organize ourselves with the vision of creating a more agile and faster executing -- better executing organization for the future. So if you go through the 3 components of the restructuring program. On the portfolio side, this is just the regular execution of portfolio discipline. We have now reviewed all brand country and category combinations to ensure that we can add value and in those where we found that we cannot add value, you see us changing the business model or reallocating resources. You heard us just talk about the projects that we can announce today, which is the business model change in Pakistan and some of the portfolio streamlining across our Fem care business et cetera. So those elements are now clearly defined. We are working through the execution, and I feel very good about the progress we are making. We'll end up with a faster-growing and more effective portfolio when we're done. On the supply chain side, these portfolio choices give us flexibility to take another look at our supply chain. And again, I think the product supply teams around the world now have firmly confirmed what the interventions are they want to make, and we are in execution mode. This will give us both a cost savings element but also an agility and supply assurance element which we feel very good about. The third component, the up to 7,000 non-manufacturing head count reduction really is the enabler for us to create smaller teams that are better set up. We are fully digitally enabled data access and analysis to focus on the consumer and focus on brand building. And those org designs have now been developed. They are slightly different in every category as they should be because the context and the work in every category is different but they have the consistent objective to create smaller teams that are focused on the brand. They are digitally enabled, and we're building some of these technologies and platforms globally. Some of them are individual. And they will ultimately result in what I see as the third step of the organization evolution when we went from the ticket to fully enabled category end-to-end now to smaller brand teams that are enabled by technology to be much faster and much more consumer-centric. And that, combined with Supply Chain 3.0, which will change the way that our supply chain operates via automation and digital towards is very exciting for us. The short-term benefit is cost and fuel for us to be able to invest over the next 12 to 18 months into the very strong innovation programs that we're launching. I think the longer-term benefit is just an even strengthened portfolio and a strengthened organization. Operator: Your next question will come from the line of Peter Galbo of Bank of America. Peter Galbo: Andre, I just wanted to maybe click in a bit more on some of the subcategories in North America. And in particular, on Fabric Care, and Baby Care, where you noted a bit more, I think, competitive activity. Obviously, there's a list of innovation that you outlined over the coming year. But maybe you can just give us a bit more detail on what you're seeing real time from a competitive standpoint, both in North America Fabric Care and Baby Care. Andre Schulten: Yes, Peter, look, both are obviously big and important categories for us. And as you will have seen in the results, both are not delivering at the level that we want them to deliver. And as you pointed out, what we see is a heightened competitive environment, which is not unexpected, where consumers are a bit more careful in terms of purchase decisions and consumption. The market gets tighter. And some of the response -- competitive response is increased promotion and that's certainly what we're seeing both in Fabric Care and in Baby Care. Our response to a more competitive environment has to be a more integrated answer, which is what we are executing across both baby and Fabric Care. So when we talk about driving integrated superiority, that's what we mean. And while value or promotion might be a component to that answer, the real solution here to create sustainable growth is to drive innovation and drive superiority, communicate that innovation with the right claims, meaningful to the consumer, meaningful to the retailer, get the retailer support online and in physical stores and thereby create value for the consumer that is attractive. Where we've done that, specifically on Baby Care, we're seeing the results. So we've continued to innovate and stay ahead on Swaddlers, on Cruisers 360, on the pants business, and we continue to do so, and we see share growth. We have intervened on the value tier with Luvs Platinum innovation which we've launched in the fall of last year, and we have been able to grow share even competing in what is probably the most pressured tier within the Baby Care portfolio. And we are now expanding that same approach to the mid-tier, launching the first wave of Baby Dry, which is our mid-tier innovation in the fall. And the second part of that innovation in the spring and we are confident that the share pattern will follow the same playbook as we've seen. You've heard us talk about the innovation in Fabric here. The Tide liquid innovation is truly exciting. The biggest upgrade in 20 years, a significant investment, great commercialization. We believe that is the right answer to drive trade-in, trade-up and continue to create category growth. We're adding on Tide evo, which will add a completely new form to the category. And again, that's the path forward to drive category growth, share growth in a sustainable way. Last comment, this plan takes longer. It's not as easy as throwing promotion funding out there. But again, we believe that is the way to both create value for our consumers and for our retail partners and shareholders. Operator: Your next question will come from the line of Lauren Lieberman of Barclays. Lauren Lieberman: Just wanted to touch on the market share stats, the global market share down 30 basis points. I know that can be very impacted by geographic mix to some elements, but even just at the 24 of 50 category country combinations are holding or gaining share is on the low side. So I'm asking for you to walk through the 26 that are troubled. Maybe just where might you call out some particular hotspots of activity things where is it a matter of macro and positioning and relative affordability at this time? Is it a matter of the innovation that's yet to come, you think will be the answer, but it was a pretty stark statistic, and I'd love to get your thoughts on that. Andre Schulten: Lauren. Yes, global aggregate share, as you point out, is down 30 basis points over the past 3 and past 6 months. if you look the past 1 month, we're closer to flat. So the last reading is minus 0.1%, but I would view that as normal variability. I think the hotspot. So let's talk with the U.S. Let's start with the U.S. I think we're coming from a very strong base period. And there are some categories where we clearly see increased promotional activity. We touched on Baby Care. We've seen very aggressive rollbacks and promotion activity in the Baby Care mid-tier section. We also see very intense promotions in Fabric Care. We've seen a period of intense promotion in Oral Care. So certainly, the competitive aggressiveness has increased. And the way we respond is more structural. It takes a bit more time. While we will remain value competitive in the short term. We truly believe the right answer here is to drive integrated superiority with innovation and investment in our brands. And the positive read of the U.S. shares would be that if you look sequentially, we are actually increasing absolute share. So past 12, past 6, past 3, past 1 month, our absolute share in the U.S. went from $33.6 to $33.9 to $34.1 to $34.9. So absolute shares are moving in the right direction. We are still annualizing a relatively high base period, but the plans are clearly in place, I think, to exit the year with share growth in the U.S. Europe is a very similar situation. Competitors have been not very active over the past years, and we see some of our competitors headquartered in Europe, get back in the arena which, if it's driven by innovation is a good thing in our mind. It drives attention to the categories. But in some cases, it's also very heavy promotion. So if you look at Fabric Care, for example, in our Germany business, we were up last year same quarter, 33%. We are down this year because we have competitive activity in the market. the playbook is the same. We will continue to invest in integrated superiority. On the other hand, if I look at our China business, very strong progress. We probably started the right interventions in China because of a difficult market environment earlier about 2 years ago. And with the interventions in innovation, the interventions in go-to-market capability, we now see solid progress in a difficult market environment, again, China Mainland up 6%, SK-II up, Baby Care up 20%. So it gives us confidence that these interventions were driving. They take some time, but they ultimately result in what we want in terms of market growth and share growth. Last example I'll give you on the success. If we do this right, is Latin America, again, 7% growth in the quarter, broad-based in Mexico, in Brazil and in a lot of smaller markets driven by a strong portfolio with strong innovation. Operator: Your next question today will come from the line of Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank. Stephen Robert Powers: Andre, maybe talk a little bit more elaborating on China picking up on what you had just spoken to. A good result this quarter with Greater China, up 5%. Maybe just a little bit more perspective about what you've seen evolving on the ground in that market, how the business was trending entering the quarter versus how it exited. And just how confident you are in the relative progress you've seen so far just sustaining through the year? Andre Schulten: Thank you, Steve. Let me maybe start with the team on the ground and the interventions they have made. I think it was clear to the team that the consumer environment will not get easier. The competitive environment will not get easier. And therefore, we had to fundamentally change many of the variables that drive the business. And that's, I think, what the China team has done very successfully. They basically lifted up every part of the business model across all categories. They completely changed the go-to-market model, including the incentive system for the distributor network, which is critical in China. They've launched consistently strong innovation grounded in local insights. When I think about our Baby Care business growing 20%, that certainly is driven by absolutely superior consumer insights and innovation that matches those insights. And lastly, they've changed the way we communicate with consumers and the way we collaborate with our most strategic customers, many of them online businesses. So all of that has resulted in, I think, a good turn of the business. It is China. So I'm not pretending that this will be a straight line. this can go up and down. But now we have 2 points on -- that we can connect and both points are pointing in the right direction. But again, I would urge us to be also cognizant of the fact that we're dealing with a volatile market environment. A couple of examples that we are particularly proud of, number one, SK-II, just the discipline with which the team worked on the brand fundamentals on strong innovation, having the courage to launch a super premium in addition to the core I think is paying dividends. SK-II up 12% and even the travel retail business has now turned positive. We have streamlined our Fabric Care portfolio, launched innovation that is truly superior. The business is up 5 points. The Hair Care business where we've been able to innovate is growing. And on the Skin Care business, the mass Skin Care business, Olay is growing and Skin & Personal Care in aggregate is growing 8%. And I mentioned Baby Care. So while the consumer sentiment is still somewhat less confident. I think the team has found a way to break through. Don't expect it will be a straight line, but I feel very good about the progress we've made. Operator: Your next question will come from the line of Rob Ottenstein of Evercore. Robert Ottenstein: Great. I want to swing back to the U.S. and there was a lot of talk about the need for competitive promos that are going on in the market. And I guess my question is, as you look at the other side of that, which is the consumer side and the research you're doing on the consumer, has affordability become a bigger driver of consumer choice in the quarter? Do you expect that to continue? And then specifically, if that is the case, that it is a bigger driver, how do you look to address affordability apart from innovations, but looking at whether it's a change in shift in channel strategy, RGM, price pack architecture, other ways to get at affordability issues. Andre Schulten: Thanks, Robert. I wouldn't call it affordability. I would say value is clearly in the center of the equation and value defined as price over integrated performance, which is the other 4 vectors that we're talking about. We continue to see consumers trade up, price/mix is positive, mix is positive in the U.S., where the value equation is attractive for consumers. In some channels, we see the majority of growth in our categories in the premium end, not in the value end of the lineup. We also see continued decline of private label. Actually, private label shares in the U.S. are now down 50 basis points. So for the first time, private label shares dropping below 16%. And which was kind of the historical threshold. And as I mentioned, our sequential value share is actually improving by more than 1 point even though we've not quite caught the base period yet. I think the right answer to the environment we're in is to serve the consumer where they want to shop and with the cash outlay and the value tier that they are prepared to go after. And I think we have built very strong price ladders across different pack sizes. We continue to optimize those. So we find in some channels that we might have crossed price points relative to competitive offerings we need to adjust. We will adjust those quickly. But we are present in every channel across the U.S. so we can compete with the right price points, both on shelves and in promotion as we need to. We continue to innovate across every value tier. You heard me talk about Luvs, for example, in Baby Dry -- in Baby Care, but we're also innovating at the top end, and both are successful if we do it if we do it right. I think the channel play is interesting because the consumers continue to move into a good part of the consumer continues to move into larger pack sizes. They shop in mass, in club and online. And so we need to make sure that we have the right value offering there, and we're working on that with all of our retail partners. And then some consumers continue to live paycheck to paycheck, and they are looking for smaller cash outlay. They're really looking at low promoted prices so they can stretch the paycheck a little bit longer and we're, again, very intentionally driving our competitiveness there. But again, I come back to where I started. I wouldn't say it's affordability. I think it's sharper value and how we present that value to the consumer is critical. And we don't believe it's just price. We believe it's the combination of all factors that we need to integrate. Operator: Your next question will come from the line of Chris Carey of Wells Fargo Securities. Christopher Carey: I wanted to follow up on your commentary in China, Andre, I think it sounds like SK-II and Olay and as such, your broader personal care business in China were similar to last quarter. Correct me if that's wrong, but I do think it implies then that you're seeing improvement in businesses outside of that Skin & Personal Care segment in China. Would you agree with that assessment and are you seeing signs that improvement is durable? Or were there any factors that are specific to the quarter that may have helped that business. So I just wanted to test that just a little bit. Andre Schulten: Yes. Chris, no, good pressure test. You're right. I think we're seeing our Skin and Personal Care business is moving along. It's slightly accelerating in terms of growth rate, but we see consistency in terms of results getting better. We also see the other categories picking up pace. As I mentioned, Fabric Care is up now 5%. We made portfolio interventions. We have strong innovation out there. We're driving distribution. Our Fem Care business is growing. Our Hair Care business is growing with a more streamlined and focused portfolio. Baby Care continues to accelerate with 20% growth. So the breadth is comforting. And the other comforting fact is that we understand what we did and what it's doing in the market. So our approach to how we define the priority and how we execute it, I think it's paying dividends. So that's reassuring that better consumer understanding, innovation that is grounded in that understanding with better shelf and retail execution, online and in stores is paying dividends. So I have a high level of comfort with the results and the breadth of results and how we accomplish them. It's still China. So we will continue to observe. I would -- we continue to expect some volatility here. We continue to expect strong competitive activity. But if I had to summarize, I think we are well positioned to continue to build the business in China. The market, hopefully, will strengthen over time, which will be a tailwind, and we'll keep track of where we are over the next 2 quarters. Operator: Your next question today will come from the line of Andrea Teixeira of JPMorgan. Andrea Teixeira: I was trying to -- Andre to dive into a little bit more on the price/mix and then by categories. I know you had invested more in Luvs and in particular, in diapers in the U.S. So I was hoping to see if you've seen response from the consumer. You did say that consumers in general have been into premiumization, but obviously, that's a picture -- overall picture. I wonder if you can kind of give us some examples of ways the Procter has been more active in pivoting for that low-income consumer and in categories where they are looking for value not only in diapers but also in paper goods. Andre Schulten: Thanks, Andrea, for the question. The first part of my answer will sound familiar, but where we choose to play, we choose to be superior. And that's across all value tiers. So when we innovate, we innovate across all tiers. So for example, the most recent Auto Dish innovation on Cascade was a formula upgrade across the super premium, the premium and the mid-tier. As we've talked many times on this call already, we've upgraded our product lineup on the super premium, the premium side and diapers the value side of diapers and we are about to upgrade the mid-tier. The same is true across categories. In Olay, for example, the most successful lineup is the super serum lineup right now, and that's at a premium to the market. And we're driving innovation on the Jars business with better execution, better packaging, a shelf reset, which is going into the market starting in O&D. And when we get this right, the consumer responds. We see volume share growth and value share growth, and we see trade in and trade up, which is ultimately what we're trying to accomplish. So when we're upgrading Tide liquid, we're also upgrading the other forms and tiers within the laundry lineup, for example, we're upgrading the gain lineup as well. And that combination of tier approach with the right pack sizes, as Robert pointed out, with the right channel distribution and the right promotion strategy to drive trial is what drives the response. Now we've not done that across the full portfolio in the U.S. And that's really the work that we are approaching over quarter 2, quarter 3 and quarter 4 that is enabled by the productivity progress, by the restructuring that allows us to push the investment, and I feel very good about the aggregate of the plan, but you're pointing exactly at the right thing. We need to be sharp on integrated superiority in every value tier in which we play. If we do that, the consumer response, and we have the examples that I just mentioned to confirm that, that still works. Operator: Your next question will come from the line of Filippo Falorni of Citi. Filippo Falorni: Andre, I wanted to ask on some of the items that you called out in the guidance. You clearly lowered the headwind from commodities and tariffs. So maybe if you can give us some more color on what drove that lower headwind on those 2 items. And then if you sum up all the items that you call out, it's now like a $0.19 headwind before it was $0.39. So you have some flexibility about $0.20, but obviously, the EPS guidance is unchanged. So can you walk us through like what is the offsetting factor? It seems like there's probably more investment in promotion in marketing to offset some of the competitive environment that you're seeing in the promotional environment. But maybe help us understand where is the incremental $0.20 of benefit being invested in. Andre Schulten: Thanks, Filippo. The commodity headwinds, you see the news on the petro complex oil is not -- is coming down. That's helping us from the energy side. And the tariff environment continues to be volatile, but the biggest help on tariffs has been exclusion of materials, natural materials and ingredients that cannot be grown in the U.S. So when you think about eucalyptus pulp, when you think about psyllium, which is the core ingredient in some of our PHC products that is imported from India. So the administration having an open year to adjust policy where product or ingredients cannot be produced in the U.S. retaliatory tariffs coming down, Canada, resending retaliatory tariffs of 25% which just happened before the last quarterly call. And so those components in aggregate are representing the commodity and tariff headwinds. On the question of guide impact. I will tell you there's really -- you called it out, right? Number one, we're in quarter 1. So it's still very early. And as you can see, the tariff environment can change very quickly. You heard the administration's comments on Canada. And so there's still volatility in the impact for the year. Number two, a lot of the commodity -- a lot of the tariff changes. So for example, Canadian tariff rescinded was linked to pricing. So as the tariff goes out, so does the pricing. So the net effect on the P&L within the year is limited. So volatility, it's still early, and you're very right, we want to absolutely preserve our ability to continue to invest because we have proof and we continue to be convinced based on the consumer reaction to where we successfully invested in integrated priority that this is the right path forward. It is the path to stimulate category growth back to 3% to 4%. and within that, the path for P&G share growth in a sustainable way. So early in the year, still volatile reserve investment. Operator: Your next question will come from the line of Peter Grom of UBS. Peter Grom: So I wanted to ask a follow-up on North America. Andre, I think you mentioned consumption decelerated throughout the quarter, and you alluded to some of the phase-in considerations related to the port strike a year ago. So just maybe first, how do you see underlying category demand evolving from here? I know it might be a little bit harder now because you're lapping some of the impact, but just curious whether you would expect this deceleration to continue? And then just related on the comment on the port strikes that will make 2Q the soft this quarter. Is there a way to frame how much of an impact these laps will have? Or maybe how much of a step back you would expect from where we started the year. Andre Schulten: Peter. Look, I think the North America consumption decelerated. So that's correct. We are -- we probably entered the year at about a strong 2%, 2.4% value consumption. We're now a weaker 2. So 1.8%, 1.9%. Some of that is just variability of base periods. But I do believe that for the next 2 quarters, the consumption will be around the 1.5% to 2% range. And as you said, particularly in quarter 2, because of the port strike in October and then the threatened port strike in January, what we expect to see is that the run rates of consumption, both on the market side and P&G side is probably going to continue. But you have a point higher base period. So that's probably the best way I can describe what we're expecting. And if there's 2 things you need to take away is quarter 2 is going to be lower than quarter 1 and half 2 is going to be higher than half 1. That's about the best logic I can give you. Over time, maybe last comment in the not too far future, if we are successful with everything we're doing with the investment, we expect category growth to return to 3%, both in the U.S. and at a global level. And again, that's job 1, 2 and 3, drive more users in the category, drive more usage and drive value per use. That's how we get back to 3%. Operator: Your next question will come from the line of Olivia Tong of Raymond James. Olivia Tong Cheang: Two questions for you, Andre. First, in terms of the regional outlook. Obviously, you just talked about the U.S., you've been pretty guarded in terms of China. But what about rest of world, just thinking through dynamics with respect to demand, how the consumer is doing in Western Europe and Latin America, in particular. And then in terms of some of the restructuring actions that you've taken, you mentioned some of the portfolio changes in the Middle East and then also in Fem Care. If you -- can you expand on that a little bit in terms of potentially bigger changes to the portfolio to make a step change in terms of the growth trajectory, either more culling -- more substantial culling of the portfolio or potentially looking the opposite way in terms of filling some of the gaps with inorganic growth. Andre Schulten: Thanks, Olivia. Dynamics in Western Europe, very similar to North America, volume growth in the categories that we're in about 1%, value growth, around 2% weak 2%, and effectively, the same dynamics I described in North America. L.A. continues to be strong. We saw 7% growth in the quarter. Last quarter was very strong. And we continue to drive market growth in the region. Strength in Brazil, up 6% or 7%, Mexico up 4%. So the LA region is doing well from a consumer standpoint and from a P&G standpoint. Asia, Middle East, Africa and Europe enterprise markets more muted, both geopolitically from a consumer standpoint and from a competitive standpoint, I expect that not to change. So in aggregate, I would say, enterprise markets probably around 3%, 4% developed markets, Europe, North America, around 2%. China is the wild card, still negative in terms of market growth. But again, we're making good progress. So that's as much perspective as I can give you. On the bigger portfolio changes, look, the portfolio actions we are executing are really on the fringes, right? We are making sure that we do what we should do is ensure that we can create value in every category country combination in which we are, and if not, make the appropriate changes. And the type of change you've seen us announce in this release, that's about the type of change you should expect. There's nothing more dramatic that we're planning to do. We're very comfortable with the core portfolio that we're in. We've chosen these 10 categories very carefully and we continue to believe these are attractive categories in which P&G can continue to drive growth. We have talked about the growth opportunities within the existing portfolio across regions driving our brands in North America, serving underserved consumers in North America is a $5 billion opportunity, getting Europe consumption in the European markets to best-in-class in Europe from a household penetration standpoint is $10 billion. And driving enterprise market penetration in those markets that are similar to GDP per capita as Mexico, to the same level of consumption in those categories in Mexico is about $15 billion. And as I said last time, these are numbers on the piece of paper until you start allocating resources to those ideas, and that's exactly what we're doing. That's exactly why we want flexibility to invest. So we can drive the consumer insights, we can drive the innovation that goes after these growth opportunities. And if you add them up, you find that they will allow us to grow with an algorithm for the next 5 to 10 years. So there's no need to have any transformational acquisition on inorganic growth opportunity added. If there is an attractive opportunity, we'll always look at it. Operator: Your next question will come from the line of Nik Modi of RBC Capital Markets. Nik Modi: Andre, I was hoping maybe you can just kind of opine on agentic commerce and how you think P&G can leverage some of the advantages you have in kind of the brick-and-mortar shopping environment to this kind of new world that we're walking into, especially given the announcement with OpenAI and Walmart. So just any thoughts you have. I mean, the big question I have is just how do suppliers get their products in the actual basket if people are shopping through prompts? Any thoughts would be helpful. Andre Schulten: Thank you, Nik. Indeed an interesting question. And the way I think about it is it is all opportunity, right? I mean if you think about it, we're in business for 187 years. We went from Kendall store to supermarkets to hypermarkets to online shopping to social commerce, all an opportunity. We went from newspaper ads to radio to TV to Internet to social media, all an opportunity. So I think it's about getting ready for that reality. And I do believe that it opens up new possibilities for brands to make themselves visible. And it all comes back to the underlying fundamentals, do you understand the consumer, do you understand how they look for information, how the agent will find your product, how the agent will extract the information to decide whether your product should be in the basket or not and how you work with your retail partners to ensure that you have the best understanding and the best access to these algorithms so that you can communicate your superior brand proposition every day and every shopping opportunity. And that's the path forward. I feel we're well positioned. I feel our data infrastructure, our consumer understanding, our collaboration with retail partners is very good. And so again, for me, this is all opportunity. Operator: Your next question will come from the line of Kaumil Gajrawala of Jefferies. Kaumil Gajrawala: Just a couple of clarifying questions. There was a commentary around tariffs and sort of natural products being exempted as Were there any particular deals or maybe just that the threat wasn't as much as what perhaps you had estimated earlier. And then on China, a lot of conversations around distribution and distribution changes. Was there anything onetime in there as it relates to sort of a near-term benefit from flipping into a new distribution structure? Or is what we're seeing more related to an improvement in consumption. Andre Schulten: Thanks, Kaumil. The change on the tariff side was before these products or these materials and ingredients were included in the overall tariff structure. And I think what the administration that has done is basically grant exceptions, broad exceptions in some of these tariff frameworks for those materials that cannot be grown in the U.S., which is highly appreciated and makes sense. On the China question, we've made these interventions on distribution network in the fall -- summer and fall of last year. I know there were not any onetime distribution gains that drive these results. It is just a streamlining and changing the incentive system for the distributor network. So we have fewer distributors. They are better aligned to what we're trying to do in terms of quality execution in stores and online, and that is starting to pay dividends. So this is not a onetime effect or onetime bump. This is actually the new go-to-market approach starting to pay dividends. And if everything goes well, I expect that benefit to actually slowly accelerate over time. Operator: Your final question today will come from the line of Robert Moskow of TD Cowen. Xin Ma: This is Victor on for Rob Moskow. Two for me as well. So I think previously, there was a discussion of taking a mid-single-digit pricing on about 25% of your U.S. SKUs to mitigate the tariff impact. So now that the tariff impact is half of what it was before curious on how that affects your pricing strategy, if at all? And then on LATAM, we've heard from competitors of consumer weakness and from a challenging macro backdrop, are you seeing this impact your trends at all? And if so, how are you performing so well? And did you gain other category share in the region? Andre Schulten: On the pricing question, yes, we've taken in the U.S., we've announced pricing in July. It's gone into effect in September. Most of the pricing was innovation-driven and in aggregate, it's about a 2%, 2.5% price increase across the entire portfolio. The underlying tariffs that have contributed to the need for pricing has not really changed. The biggest change in the tariff exposure has been retaliatory tariffs on the other side. And those pricing effects have been taking out, I was talking about Canada. But in the U.S., the majority of the pricing was underlying innovation-based with tariffs being a contributor, but not the main contributor, so no change to pricing approach. I think we've talked about the consumer backdrop in the U.S., plenty. We've talked about the share development. While we haven't fully annualized our base, we continue to make sequential progress in absolute share, and we expect to exit the U.S. with neutral to share growth by continuing to give the consumers better value propositions, we are integrated superiority every day. So I'll bring it back to integrated superiority to end the call. So if there are no more questions, I want to thank you for your time, and thank you for your support of the company. We continue to double down on the strategy. We feel we are well set up both from a funding standpoint, from a strategy standpoint with the right innovation at hand, and we'll continue to drive forward. Thank you very much. Operator: This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect, and have a great day.
Angelo Torres: Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us to review Robinsons Retail's unaudited results for the first 9 months of 2025. I'm Angelo Torres, [indiscernible] Corporate Planning and Investor Relations Officer. The speakers for this call are Stanley Co, our President and CEO; Christine Tueres, our MD for the Big Formats of the Food segment, Joanne Arceo our Group GM for the Drug Store segment; Celina Chua, our adviser for the Robinsons Department Store, Toys R Us, Sole Academy, and Spatio Group; and Theodore our Group GM for the DIY segment and Pets; and Dondon A. Gaw, our GM for Robinsons Appliances. Our Chairman, Mr. Robina Gokongwei-Pe, and Adviser for Corporate Planning, [Gina Roa-Dipaling] [indiscernible] call. So, [indiscernible] agenda for this afternoon's call. So we will provide an overview of our financial performance and share key updates across the organization. [Operator Instructions] So with that, I turn you over to Stanley CO, our CEO, to discuss our financial [indiscernible]. Stanley Co: Here are the highlights of our third quarter 2025 results. Consolidated net sales increased by 4.3% to [indiscernible]. Net results for sales growth of 1.6%. Gross profit rose by 5.9% to PHP 12.5 billion. EBIT grew by 3.1% to PHP 2.3 billion. Core net earnings increased 33% to PHP 1.5 billion. Net income [indiscernible] down by 13.5% to PHP 872 billion [indiscernible] expense and advertise losses for both sales. Earnings per share rose by 12.5% to PHP 0.79 per share due to lower number of [indiscernible] shares [indiscernible]. [indiscernible] 2025 consolidated net sales increased by 440% to PHP 149.3 billion. [indiscernible] sales growth registered at 3.1%. Gross profit rose by 6.2% to PHP 26.4 billion. EBIT grew by 4.5% to PHP 6.6 billion. Our net earnings improved by 3.9% to PHP 4.2 billion. Net Income to Parent decreased by 60% to PHP 3.1 billion. [indiscernible] reported early last year. [indiscernible] declined PHP 2.45 per share. Our [indiscernible] P&L in the sales grew 4.3%, PHP 50.8 billion in the third quarter. [indiscernible] sales to PHP 149.3 billion up 4.8%. Despite heavy rainfall, [indiscernible] same-store sales growth still grew by 1.6% in third quarter on higher basket size. With the [indiscernible]. [indiscernible] slightly 0.1% to PHP 2.3 billion in the third quarter and by 4.5% to PHP 6.6 billion due to the driven by improved category mix [indiscernible]. Net Income to Parent declined by 123.5% to PHP 807.2 billion in Q3 due to high expense from the DFI [indiscernible] buyback. From the higher associate losses earnings per share however increased by 12.5% due to gross shares outstanding from the shares by up from the DFI retail shares. Lastly, [indiscernible] Net Income to Parent [indiscernible] PHP 1.1 billion but 60% [indiscernible] last year’s [indiscernible] gains. Core Earnings overall rose 3% to PHP 1.5 billion in third quarter and PHP 4.2 billion [indiscernible] 0.5% quarter by the [indiscernible] period. [indiscernible] posted [indiscernible] sales growth [indiscernible] stores which does [indiscernible]. [indiscernible] delivered soft performance [indiscernible] both [indiscernible] digit growth in the third quarter. [indiscernible] businesses Food and Drugstores accounting for 80% of total net sales to 85% of total [indiscernible] for year to the September. Meanwhile our [indiscernible] Department stores, DIY and Specialty comprised 11% of net sales and 15% of the EBITDA respectively. In the first 9 months we opened 14 different stores and [indiscernible] Meanwhile our total store count is 2501. The store count is comprised of 777 [indiscernible], 1150 Drugstores, 51 Department stores, [indiscernible] DIY stores and 286 Specialty stores. In addition, we have 2180 franchise stores [indiscernible] and more store [indiscernible] are expected to be in the coming month. Passing the over to [Christine Tueres] for the food segment. Christine Tueres: Thanks Stan. Food segment sales rose by 4.5% to PHP 31.1 billion in third quarter from PHP 25 billion driven by same-store sales growth of 2.8% and the contribution of 19 [indiscernible] stores. Same-store sales growth was supported by a higher basket size [indiscernible]. Due to this the sales reached PHP 90.2 billion up by 4% year-on-year. Our gross profit grew by 7.8% to PHP 7.8 billion in third quarter and 5.6% to PHP 20.7 billion in 9 months. [Outstanding] revenue growth and this was supported by increased [indiscernible] and higher penetration of [indiscernible] products. This led to the EBITDA growth of 6.6% to PHP 2.7 billion in third quarter and 5.2% to PHP 7.7 billion in 9 months. [indiscernible] Joanne for Drugstores. Joanne Dawn Seno-Arceo: It was [indiscernible] double ratio [indiscernible] growth in third quarter [indiscernible] driven by same store sales grew at [indiscernible]. [indiscernible] new stores. For year-to-date September net sales increased by 9.8% to PHP 28.9 billion. Gross profit rose by [indiscernible] in third quarter and 15.4% year-to-date up to the same revenue growth. This was supported by price adjustments, higher penetration of house brands and improved vendor support. As a result, EBITDA grew by 14.2% to PHP 899 million min third quarter [indiscernible] year-to-date. [indiscernible] Celina. Celina Chua: Department store net sales declined by 11.7% to PHP 3.3 billion in the third quarter due to the shift in school opening to June this year from July last year. Store renovations also in preparation for the fourth quarter season and stiff competition. On year-to-date, net sales still rose by 2.1% to PHP 11 billion driven by the opening of Robinsons department store [indiscernible] in the second quarter. As a result, gross profit declined by 10.5% in the third quarter. However, gross profit for the first 9 months of the year still grew by 3.1%, faster than net sales growth driven by a favorable category mix and strong vendor support. EBITDA declined to PHP 535 million in the first 9 months, reflecting higher operating costs. Let me turn you over to [Theodore] for the DIY segment. Theodore Sogono: Our DIY segment posted 2% growth in net sales in the current quarter to PHP 2.9 billion supported by [indiscernible]. [indiscernible] reached PHP 8.6 billion [indiscernible] year-on-year. Gross profit was flat at PHP 951 million in the third quarter and PHP 2.8 million in the first 9 months. [indiscernible] were offset by increased [indiscernible] penetration and introduction of new higher [indiscernible]. However, EBITDA declined to PHP 916 million in the first 9 months. Due to higher [indiscernible] sector. I will turn you over to [indiscernible] Unknown Executive: Business for the Specialty Segment rose 7.1% [with quarter to date] PHP 0.5 billion. [indiscernible] delivering double digit growth in [indiscernible] home appliance. Gross profit increased by 2.8% from [indiscernible] lower than the revenue growth. [indiscernible] appliances. EBITDA declined to PHP 426 billion due to higher OpEx, however, appliances EBITDA improved quarter-on-quarter up by 14.1% [indiscernible]. Unknown Executive: Our cash conversion cycle rose to 29.9 days driven by higher inventory days at 81.4% [indiscernible] items increased to meet strong demand for the peak season, and also our payable days were lower at 56.0. On our balance sheet, our net debt as of September 30 increased to PHP 30.1 billion. This is largely due to the acquisition loan for the DFI retail share repurchase, which we did last May. Despite this, our balance sheet remains fairly healthy with a net debt-equity ratio of 0.4x. Return on assets and return on equity normalized to 3.4% and 6.9%, respectively. This following the absence of a one-time gain from the BPI and Robinsons Bank merger, which was booked in early 2024. In advance of [indiscernible] CapEx, this amounted to 3.3 billion as of 9 months. This is up around 4% year-on-year. Food amounted for 61% followed by Drugstore segment of 15% share. With the balance [indiscernible]. And now tuning over to our [indiscernible]. Unknown Executive: Allow me to walk [indiscernible] some of our minority business in the [indiscernible]. [indiscernible] 662 in 9 months from 318 last year which led to net sales rising by 0.2 [indiscernible] to $349 million. [indiscernible] customers [indiscernible] $745 million from $4.4 million last year. [indiscernible] in the country. Growth [supported] by 2.1x growth in [indiscernible] to [indiscernible] [indiscernible] increased 21% from last year to $693 million [indiscernible] So let me update you on some key corporate developments across the business. [indiscernible] magazine [indiscernible] best companies of 2025 which recognizes companies for excellence in employees satisfaction, revenue growth and [indiscernible]. We were one only then believe in the importance on the global [indiscernible]. [indiscernible] welcome 13 [indiscernible] employees in August, [marking] their transition to regular employment after completing training under [indiscernible] ongoing commitment to [indiscernible]. And finally, per our guidance, we are maintaining our full year 2025 guidance, targeting 130 to 170 net new stores, mostly from the Food and Drugstore segments, where bulk of the stores will be opened this quarter. We are aiming for blended same-store sales growth to 4%, 20 to 30 bps expansion in gross margin, and allocating PHP 5 billion to PHP 7 billion for organic CapEx. This ends our presentation for our 9 months results. We will now open the floor for Q&A session. Angelo Torres: We’ll begin the Q&A with the questions received ahead of time. So, from Felix of Philippine Equity Partners. Can you give us an update on the remaining balance of the debt used for the acquisition of the BPI shares? Also, what is the [indiscernible] interest expense related to this… Unknown Executive: As of 9 months, the outstanding balance on the BPI acquisition loan is PHP 10.8 billion. So this is unchanged versus June 2025. Interest expense is PHP 500 million [indiscernible]. Angelo Torres: The second question. Are all remaining treasury shares coming from the buyback of DFI own shares? Any plans for the remaining treasury shares? Unknown Executive: Okay. So our treasury shares consist of 2 components. The first one would be 158 million shares is coming from the regular buyback that we started last March from [indiscernible]. And then we have also around 315.3 million shares after the DFI Retail buyback. So [indiscernible] the combination of few type of buyback so total cash under treasury [indiscernible] PHP 474 million, but if you will recall, we are currently in the process of retiring the 158 million shares just from the regular buyback program. We saw shareholder approval last September 16th to [indiscernible] retire these shares, and it would take about six months to complete the entire process -- at least six months. Angelo Torres: For the final question, how much dividends did RRHI receive from its 6.5 [stake] in BPI? Unknown Executive: Okay. So on the dividends --the dividend income from this stake is about PHP 680 million in 9 months. Angelo Torres: Question from [indiscernible] of JPMorgan. What is the SSSG supermarket and CVS banners in the third quarter 2025, respectively? How our basket size and transaction [indiscernible] in both subsegments? Unknown Executive: Thank you for the questions, Jeanette. For 3Q of supermarkets, SSSG is about 3% and for Uncle John's in 3Q, it's negative 1%. In terms of basket size, in 3Q for supermarkets were up about 7% to 8% versus last year. And for Uncle John's were up by about 1% in 3Q versus 3Q ’24. Angelo Torres: Follow-up from the [indiscernible] Your share color on trends and intensity of supplier support in 3Q 2025 versus 2Q 2025 and then 2024, which product categories are seeing higher than average supplier support? Unknown Executive: Okay. Sequentially from 2Q to 3Q, we saw an improvement in supplier support. So generally, in the third quarter and in the fourth quarter of every year, supplier support ramps up. This is particularly because in preparation of the holiday peak season. On a year-on-year basis, for full year, we should be seeing an increase supplier support. The product categories where we're seeing more supplier support in the food segment or the food categories. Again, this is largely related to Christmas-related shopping, but the other categories, nonfood categories are also seeing very decent supplier support. Angelo Torres: So from [indiscernible] on wholesale, what is SSSG in 3Q 2025? And what is the trend between basket size and transaction count? Can you share the latest EBITDA figures for wholesale? What is the target EBITDA breakeven for wholesale? Unknown Executive: Maybe we can have [indiscernible] answer the first ones. Unknown Executive: Yes, sure. Thanks for the question. I appreciate that. So our SSSG is around… So our SSSG for the third quarter is around 19%, and that primarily comes from transaction count. So that is almost all of that is transaction count versus last year, basket size remains relatively stable. In terms of EBITDA breakeven, we are still targeting or we are targeting at the moment on a full year basis to breakeven in 2026. Angelo Torres: For premium bikes, what is the latest update on the approvals in the premium bikes acquisition? When are you expecting it to close? Unknown Executive: Okay. So this is still under review by the Philippine Competition Commission. We're still in Phase 1. And we still expect to close this year. So this is the target. Angelo Torres: And then outlook for 2025, our top line SSSG and margins per segment. Unknown Executive: Okay. On a blended basis, as what was mentioned earlier, we're looking at close to 4% SSSG and then gross margin expansion of up to 30 basis points. On a per segment basis, more or less should be aligned with this one. So Food would be about 3% to 4%, which is the main driver of margin expansion of around 30 basis points. Angelo Torres: So a question from Victor [indiscernible]. Will the shares purchased from DFI be canceled? And the second question, how will this purchase affect your dividend policy? Will the company still maintain EPS? Unknown Executive: Yes. Thank you, Victor. Still no plans as of today. You mentioned in the stockholders' meeting that there’s no limit or there’s no time limit as to when we can hold treasury shares. So again, no plans to [indiscernible]. And in terms of dividend policy, we're maintaining 40% payout ratio versus the previous year's net income comparable. Angelo Torres: [indiscernible] supermarket only excluding Uncle John's, what is the SSSG in 3Q 2025? What is the same-store growth in ticket size versus transaction count in 3Q 2025? Another question would be what were the revenues from gross profit and EBITDA in 3Q 2025 [indiscernible] change year-to-year in 3Q 2025? Unknown Executive: So for supermarkets only excluding Uncle John's in 3Q, that is [indiscernible] 3%. And then for 9 months about close to 4%. CapEx size for supermarket could be about 7% to 8% growth in the third quarter. And then the revenues were up about 5% to 6% for supermarket only in Q2. For 9 months about the same, and then EBITDA growing faster than net sales for both 3Q and 9M and [indiscernible] supermarkets only were up about around 20 to 40 basis points 3Q and 9M combined Angelo Torres: For department stores [indiscernible] can you share what specific subsegments drove the steep drop in sales in SSSG? Any SSSG sales indications you can share so far for October? And then the second question, can you expand on the steep competition you mentioned for the department store or the key players you're looking out for? Christine Tueres: For the subsegments that effect that the SSSG is more or less departments the back-to-school related departments such as shoes and baskets for children, [men’s and ladies apparel] [indiscernible] the online sales then market recess. Angelo Torres: Can you please discuss the expected impact of rapid expansion of the likes of [indiscernible] wholesale in their business year-over-year? Unknown Executive: Thank you for the question. I think what we see is the first few months, some of our minimarts are affected in terms of [indiscernible]. This is because of that element of curiosity in the neighborhood. But after a few months, we're able to see a recovery in our sales because number one, it's a different market targeting the lower end of the mass market. We target the ground middle income market plus at about 3,000, 4,000 SKUs in our minimart département [indiscernible] complete the weekly basket requirements of shoppers. So we have fresh items as well [indiscernible]. Angelo Torres: From [indiscernible], what were the respective financing cost amounts related to A, the DFI share buyback and the financing of BPI shares for 9 months 2025? Unknown Executive: For the 9 months 2025 for BPI its PHP 500 million up for DFI its about PHP 280 million. Angelo Torres: From [indiscernible], how much dividend from BPI do you expect to receive in 4Q 2025? Unknown Executive: The dividend per share paid in the second quarter was PHP 2.08 per BPI so they usually pay in June and sometime in the fourth quarter. So BPI PHP 2.08 and you have about 300 million shares and [indiscernible]. So that's the amount in 4Q. Angelo Torres: Another follow-up, can you share the expected interest in 4Q 2005 to 2026? Unknown Executive: For? Angelo Torres: For the DFI. For both. Unknown Executive: Combined its about 500 [indiscernible]. Angelo Torres: Another question from [indiscernible], why was the decline in SSSG in department store and outlook for 4Q? Christine Tueres: SSSG with department store declined in the third quarter of this year due to the shift in the back-to-school opening, which was from July last year to June this year. So we expect to rebound in the last quarter of this year as our major renovations of our key stores will be completed in advance and sales will normalize. Angelo Torres: From [indiscernible], given the recent buyback of shares, how much debt was available to complete the transaction and what was the increase interest expense as a result? This has been answered already. Unknown Executive: [indiscernible] A little over PHP 50 billion to finance really DFI retail [indiscernible]. And in 9 months in ‘26 stands about PHP 280 billion. Angelo Torres: Another question from [indiscernible]. How have the different segments performed so far for the month of October? Are we seeing sales momentum pick up for discretionary? Unknown Executive: This is mid-month October [indiscernible]. Our food SSSG is holding up pretty well even for our drug store business. For the other formats [indiscernible] is positive, but we're still seeing some challenges in the rest of, I mean discretionary items, sorry formats. Angelo Torres: And then a final question for the Food segment, how do you describe current consumer behavior trends as downgrading and or preference surrounding [indiscernible]? Unknown Executive: Downgrading is in the last two quarters. And the reason why we think this is so is because basket sizes are actually increasing. So in second quarter, basket sizes were up double digits and then 3Q were up 7% to 8% on a year-on-year basis. So with inflation quite steady at 1%, below 2%, we're seeing a very positive impact in terms of consumer baskets. Angelo Torres: For [indiscernible], what led to the 6% year decline in royalty and other revenues in 3Q 2025? Unknown Executive: I think this is just timing in terms of [indiscernible] but you can get back to you [indiscernible]. Angelo Torres: What drove the 17% year-on-year increase in [indiscernible] in 3Q 2025? Unknown Executive: [indiscernible]. Can you clarify that question. I’m not sure that [indiscernible]... Well that’s OpEx excluding depreciation or [indiscernible] and just plus 9% [indiscernible] plus 6%. Angelo Torres: And then another question, what drove the higher effective tax rate impeding 2025 to 29.5% versus 25.6% in 3Q 2024 220.2 in the first half 2025? What [indiscernible]. Christine Tueres: That was just quarterly timing for [Indiscernible] Angelo Torres: Few questions from [indiscernible] and what is share so far in [indiscernible]? Unknown Executive: Let me just clarify this again. For mid-month this is flat [Indiscernible] over 3%. So this is slightly above the net point of that 2%-4% as of [Indiscernible] guidance that we have for full year. Angelo Torres: [Indiscernible] department store any [Indiscernible] sales indications you shared so far in October where you missed that FY ’25 [Indiscernible]. Christine Tueres: Our October sales remain silent due to many weather disturbances and earthquakes and also our major renovations are still not completed. So, we expect to end the year positive low single digit. Angelo Torres: [Indiscernible] view, what is the impact of the DFI divestment [Indiscernible] brand? Unknown Executive: Thank you. So, the partnership with DFI in terms of the [Indiscernible] private label brand [Indiscernible]. So, this will be maintained even if they're no longer shareholders in the company. Angelo Torres: Can you expand on the breakdown in revenue for the specialty segment? What percentage of revenues for appliance and other specialty stores? Unknown Executive: Thank you, Michel. Appliances will be about 60% to 65%. Merchandise and toys would be about around 15% to 16% each. And then the balance would be pets, beauty and lifestyle [Indiscernible] Angelo Torres: Can you comment on the overall demand scenarios across your various business formats? Any trend in the consumption you can share? What would be [Indiscernible] drivers going forward? Unknown Executive: Very healthy for our food and drugstore business Indiscernible]. In fact, basket sizes in the third quarter alone are up. We're very happy with what we're seeing. In terms of margin drivers, a couple of things. Number one, increasing our mix of private label items for the drugstore segment. We're always improving the mix to see what works best. And hopefully, we get margin uplift from that. And then we're also adding [attendant] for important items, especially for the food business, which are also higher. Angelo Torres: A couple of questions from [Indiscernible]. The store expansion target for 2025 and progress so far in openings. Will 2026 see similar store expansion plans? Unknown Executive: We opened about on a net basis, we're around 50 new stores. Our target for this year is at least 130. We're still aiming to achieve that. Historically, we're opening a lot more stores in the second half of each year. For 2026 we will provide more color in the next quarter. Angelo Torres: Another question from Paul. Given the majority of store openings will be in 4Q, did you see an increase in [Indiscernible]. related expenses in 3Q? Unknown Executive: I think not much because our cash OpEx [Indiscernible] excluding depreciation in 2026 itself. We'll provide more color on the next call. Angelo Torres: On DIY, when should we expect margin pressures from markdowns to subside? Unknown Executive: [Indiscernible] Angelo Torres: Which regions or areas [Indiscernible] are we prioritizing for new store openings? Unknown Executive: Thank you for the question. We try to open where we think we can make money. But in the first 9 months, around 70% of our new stores were outside Metro Manila and for very clear reasons because it's much more [Indiscernible] Angelo Torres: Has premium bikes been included in Q3 performance? If so, how much did the [Indiscernible] and how much do you expect? Unknown Executive: We haven't consolidated premium bikes yet because we still have to wait for a formal approval from the regulator in particular the Philippine Competition Commission. But to give you context in 2024, the performance of premium bikes was about just 2% [Indiscernible] consolidated [Indiscernible] basis. Angelo Torres: What is the percentage product ration of [Indiscernible] for supermarkets in the [Indiscernible]. Christine Tueres: For supermarket for food segment its 7.2% to 7.8% share of business and increase of 13.5% for [Indiscernible]. Unknown Executive: In bp size around 3%. This is combined [Indiscernible]. Angelo Torres: So would this needed any [Indiscernible]. Either any [Indiscernible] store level or [Indiscernible] levels. Unknown Executive: I feel in [Indiscernible] in some banners -- some premium banners is in the up trading. But then generally the cost of banners now not much. I think what’s driving our basket size through is that we are seeing more spontaneous addition to their baskets. Angelo Torres: And then [Indiscernible] are we seeing the same challenge for Specialty and [Indiscernible] in 3Q. 4Q [Indiscernible] formats. Unknown Executive: Behind the involvement, I think the overall, the specialty segment is still holding up in October. I guess general consumers are [Indiscernible]. Daily priorities the stable items [Indiscernible] December [Indiscernible] up 2%, but [Indiscernible] unchallenged. But now month-on-month basis, a lot of them are also improving. So hopefully, with the Christmas spending happening soon, we see more positive results across the board for this segment. Angelo Torres: No further questions, we will end the call. Thank you, everyone, for your time, and we look forward to seeing you at the next earnings call. Thank you.
Operator: Good morning, and welcome to FIBRA Macquarie's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call and Webcast. My name is Rob, and I'll be your operator for this call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference call over to Nikki Sacks. Please go ahead. Nikki Sacks: Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining FIBRA Macquarie's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call and webcast. Today's call will be led by Simon Hanna, our Chief Executive Officer; and Andrew McDonald-Hughes, our CFO. Before I turn the call over to Simon, I'd like to remind everyone that this presentation is proprietary, and all rights are reserved. The presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Forward-looking statements in this presentation are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Our actual results, performance, prospects or opportunities could differ materially from those expressed in or implied by the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this presentation. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements after the completion of this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. Additionally, on this conference call, we may refer to certain non-IFRS measures as well as to U.S. dollars, which are U.S. dollar equivalent amounts, unless otherwise specified. As usual, we've prepared supplementary materials that we may reference during the call. If you've not already done so, I would encourage you to visit our website at fibramacquarie.com and download these materials. A link to the materials can be found under the Investors, Events and Presentations tab. And with that, it is my pleasure to hand the call over to FIBRA Macquarie's Chief Executive Officer, Simon Hanna. Simon? Simon Hanna: Thank you, Nikki, and good morning, everyone. I'm excited to share that we delivered another solid quarter of financial and operating performance with record-breaking results across key metrics. At the same time, we executed on both strategic and opportunistic initiatives that create value for our certificate holders and continue to position us for sustainable growth. The third quarter showcased the strength of our business model, starting at the top line. For the quarter, we achieved record consolidated revenues, up 8.4% in underlying U.S. dollar terms over the prior year. This momentum translated through to our quarterly U.S. dollar AFFO, which increased an impressive 6.6% annually. [ AFFO ], our quarterly distribution reflects a significant 17% increase from last year, all whilst maintaining a comfortable and prudent payout ratio. Turning to our industrial portfolio. We continue to see strong performance amidst a subdued market backdrop with average rental rates increasing 6.8% year-over-year. Notably, we achieved another quarter of double-digit renewal spreads, 17% on negotiated leases with high quarterly retention of almost 90%. Our full year 2025 performance continues to shape up rather well, perhaps best demonstrated by the 6.1% increase in U.S. dollar same-store NOI year-to-date. So in summary, we are very satisfied with the sustained momentum enjoyed from our industrial portfolio through to today, and we expect that momentum to carry through to the fourth quarter, providing for a strong finish to the year. Moving to our capital allocation and asset recycling initiatives. We had an active quarter closing on a number of transactions. I'm excited with the continued growth of our Mexico City footprint with the acquisition of a prime 250,000 square foot logistics facility. We acquired the property through a sale and leaseback for $35 million, leased to a leading global consumer company under a 3-year U.S. dollar-denominated contract. It not only provides 2025 NOI and AFFO contribution, but also positions us to capture embedded real rental rate growth. This acquisition exemplifies our thoughtful approach to capital allocation. In this case, we secured a scarce well-located infill asset that enhances our portfolio quality, while providing visible earnings and NAV accretion. We're optimistic about repeating this type of success in other deal opportunities under our review, alongside pursuing additional strategic land investments in our pipeline. We also continue to selectively pursue asset recycling initiatives. And during the third quarter, we sold a vacant industrial property in Chihuahua City for $14 million, representing a 30% premium to book value. This transaction demonstrates our commitment to active portfolio management, allowing us to accretively recycle capital into attractive opportunities like the Mexico City acquisition, I just mentioned. Turning to our retail portfolio. We also delivered strong results and achieved a post-pandemic record occupancy of 93.6%. Rising occupancy and rental rates contributed to annual NOI growth of 4.1%, essentially reaching record levels of operating cash flow. We maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook on the operating performance of our retail portfolio and expect the medium-term growth trends to continue. Looking at the broader market environment. While we acknowledge the ongoing uncertainty around trade policy, we also remain confident in Mexico's strategic position within North American supply chains. The long-term fundamentals that have driven Mexico's manufacturing growth over the past decades remain firmly intact, including high-quality labor, proximity to major U.S. markets and continued trade advantages. Notwithstanding the evolving geopolitical landscape, our high-quality portfolio, internalized platform and strategic market positioning, enables us to continue to deliver strong results and capitalize on growth opportunities. It is also worth mentioning our unique vertically integrated platform gives us, amongst other benefits privileged access to market intelligence and allows us to respond swiftly to changing conditions. This positioning, combined with our ability to capture embedded rental growth allows us to continue delivering value to certificate holders, while building a long-term portfolio resilience. Before turning the call over to Andrew, I want to highlight our ongoing commitment to sustainability. We are proud of achieving 3 green stars in our 2025 credit assessment, including a score of 94 points for the development benchmark, exceeding our peers on a regional and global basis. We're also taking this opportunity to publish our annual ESG report that is now available on our website, which provides a comprehensive overview of our sustainability initiatives and performance. Andrew, over to you. Andrew McDonald-Hughes: Thank you, Simon. I'm pleased to report another quarter of strong financial performance that reflects both the quality of our portfolio and the effectiveness of our capital allocation strategy. For the third quarter, we delivered AFFO of USD 29.7 million, representing a solid 6.6% increase year-over-year and demonstrated our continued ability to grow earnings on a per certificate basis. Our balance sheet remains exceptionally well positioned. During the quarter, we successfully completed the refinancing and expansion of our sustainability-linked credit facility. This USD 375 million facility comprises a $150 million 4-year term loan and a $225 million 3-year revolving credit facility. The transaction delivered multiple strategic benefits. Firstly, it enhanced our liquidity position to approximately USD 625 million, providing substantial financial flexibility to fund growth initiatives. Second, it reduced our weighted average cost of debt to approximately 5.5%, while extending our debt maturities. And third, the sustainability-linked features align our financing strategy with our ESG objectives through green building certification targets with the sustainability-linked portion of our drawn debt now representing 68%. As of September 30, we maintain a prudent debt profile being 92% fixed rate with our CNBV regulatory debt to total asset ratio standing at 33.2% and a robust debt service coverage ratio of 4.6x. Embedded firepower stands at approximately USD 500 million, whilst managing to a 35% LTV ratio, including the potential recycling of our retail portfolio. Turning to our guidance. We are reaffirming our FY '25 AFFO per certificate guidance to a range of MXN 2.8 to MXN 2.85 and our FY '25 AFFO guidance in underlying U.S. dollar terms to a range of $115 million to $119 million, representing annual growth of up to 5%. We are also reaffirming our cash distribution guidance for FY '25 of MXN 2.45 per certificate. This represents a 16.7% increase in peso terms and translates to an expected FY '25 AFFO payout ratio of approximately 87% based on our guidance midpoint, representing a well-covered distribution. This guidance assumes stable market conditions and no material deterioration of the geopolitical landscape or Mexico's key trading relationships, including the potential implementation of tariffs. Looking ahead, our strong balance sheet, ample liquidity and disciplined approach to capital allocation position us well to navigate market uncertainties, while selectively pursuing growth opportunities that create long-term value for our certificate holders. In closing, I want to recognize the exceptional work of our entire team. Their dedication and expertise continue to drive our operational excellence and strategic execution. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the phone lines for your questions. Operator: [Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from the line of Andre Mazini with Citigroup. André Mazini: Yes. So my question is around the potential economic deceleration Mexico is supposed to be having now in the second half of 2025. A lot of talk on that among investors and media. So I wanted to understand if you're feeling that this economic deceleration in your conversation with tenants, maybe splitting between the 3 tenant types, industrial light manufacturing, industrial logistics and the retail tenants as well. Simon Hanna: Yes. Thanks, Andre. Thanks for the question. Yes, I guess it's a bit of a dynamic backdrop out there. As you can appreciate, really where we're much more correlated with the U.S. GDP, U.S. economy more so than Mexico, and that's obviously going to be where most of the activity will basically drive outcomes for us. When we break it down between those 3 categories, look, I'd say, in general, for industrial light manufacturing, fair to say that our volumes production is slightly off compared to last year. When you look at auto parts production, it's off around sort of 7% compared to last year. So I'd say nothing that's fundamentally causing a problem there from a demand perspective, maybe a slightly lower utilization. But in general, sort of, I'd say, steady demand backdrop and something which we expect to prevail regardless of that Mexican -- Mexican economy dynamic, more so just to do with how trends continue out of the U.S. So that will very much then link into the logistics part of industrial, at least for the business-to-business, where we have most of our exposure. It will be correlated more or less with the trend on light manufacturing. So again, I'd say for both manufacturing and the B2B logistics going pretty steady, and I think the outlook is steady as well. Obviously, the name of the game there is really USMCA as a real catalyst to change that demand environment probably heading towards the second half of next year. Retail, yes, definitely more sort of linked to Mexican economy fundamentals. But I'd say the consumer remains in pretty good health. We're seeing good employment, wage numbers, et cetera. general foot traffic and activity in the shopping centers is we've been happy with that. You would have seen some of the encouraging metrics come through the quarter, record occupancy, rising rental rates, same-store were up about 5% year-over-year at the NOI level. So I'd say generally good conditions there. Cinema is continuing to struggle a little bit more, I'd say, compared to the rest of the tenant mix to be fair. Gym is doing rather well. Supermarkets is doing rather well, restaurants rather well. So that's probably cinema probably the main weakness that we're still looking for a bit of a pickup. But again, we have a cautiously optimistic outlook as well when it comes to retail, expecting fairly steady demand environment. So overall, that leads us up to a pretty good outlook for heading into 2026. Operator: The next question is from the line of [ Helena Ruiz ] with [indiscernible]. Unknown Analyst: I have a couple. The first one is on the stress. I was wondering if you could give us like any color if you expect them to remain like at these levels for the last quarter of the year and next year? And also, if you could give us a breakdown like this growth is coming from all regions like especially one market? And then my second question is on occupancy, like looking at each market, like most markets remain like really strong. The only one that saw a drop in occupancy are Monterrey and Juarez. So if you could also give us a bit of color on why the occupancy fell in those markets? Simon Hanna: Thanks, Helena, for those questions. Yes. Look, when it comes to lease spreads, firstly, taking that one on. Look, pretty good quarter again, around 17%. We have a sort of a last 12-month run rate of around 20%. So that's been tracking, I'd say, at a pleasing level for us. When we look ahead, virtually 0 rollover on 4Q, so it doesn't really move the needle. So we should be somewhere close to that run rate level on a full year basis. Outlook for next year, it's still early. We have about 16% rollover, 17% rollover next year. So we have some opportunity there to continue capturing, I would say, positive momentum when it comes to spreads, a little bit early to say how much. Obviously, the -- a little bit there depend on market conditions. But I think we -- we'd like to think that we can capture positive momentum in the same way we're seeing through the balance of this year. When it comes to some of those, I'd say, market-by-market dynamics, and I'd say there's -- it's quite an active market out there even despite the subdued new leasing conditions. I would say, in general, we are seeing that the same dynamic we have today is what we've seen for the last couple of quarters, where steady occupancy and operating trends with USMCA being the real catalyst to, we think unlock new demand. But taking that down to, I guess, market levels to answer your question, Monterrey is probably the most active market. It's also one of the biggest in the country, around 185 million square feet. So we still see a lot of activity there, a lot under construction. So supply is still coming through. And that's always been the Monterrey way to be fair, but there's probably around 8 million under construction. Amongst all that, though, on a quarterly basis, we're seeing sort of close to 4 million new leasing to basically offset some move-outs of about 4 million. So no doubt, there's a little bit of vacancy there north of 5%. And you can probably say it's more of a tenant market than a landlord market these days. But -- when it comes to the type of product that we're delivering in the market, this is in Monterrey, but in other markets as well, I'd say that we're at the upper end of that tier. And that pro forma vacancy is not so much of an issue for us. We're looking at in terms of the best quality buildings in the market, that's who our competition is because that's what we're building in terms of location, quality of building size, utilities, et cetera. So that real competition is much more narrow. So whether you're even talking someone like Tijuana, where, again, you're seeing a lot of vacancy or supply come on, it doesn't really change the equation for us. We're in the best part of town with some of those flagship developments up against really just a handful of building competitors. And so that noise around sort of 13%, 14% vacancy in Tijuana or 8% in Monterrey, it's not as relevant when you actually just boil it down to what the hard competition is against our Class A development product and we feel very well positioned to have some activity on that as we get through the year in USMCA in particular. Juarez, I'd say, is probably remains pretty soft. That one has got a lot more sort of undifferentiated vacancy. It's a bit more of a slower market than Monterrey at the moment, much more USMCA linked as well. So I think we expect more activity in that second half of next year or maybe the summer. Reynosa, again, sort of a key northern market, I'd say, very, very quiet as well and had a good positive absorption quarter for the quarter. But on a year-to-date basis, it's pretty flat in terms of absorption. And again, you'd expect that to be more correlated with USMCA pickup. Operator: The next question is from the line of Jorel Guilloty with Goldman Sachs. Wilfredo Jorel Guilloty: So my first question is around the recent M&A that you announced or mentioned in the report in Mexico City. So you bought an asset $35 million, sale leaseback. And back of the envelope, this is like $1,500 per square meter. So I wanted to get a sense of what cap rate you saw for this asset? And also, if the idea here is on further capital allocation, if it's in Mexico City that you want to focus on. And then -- and I'm sorry if you spoke about this earlier, but I wanted to ask about Monterrey and Juarez where you saw occupancy declines of 300 and 120 basis points each on a sequential basis. So I wanted to get a sense of what drove that, if it's 1 tenant or multiple, just to understand if this is a one-off or a trend. So any color would be very helpful. Simon Hanna: Okay. Thanks, Jorel. Great questions there. Yes, the Mexico City acquisition, that was a fantastic one to do is irreplaceable location around 15 minutes from downtown in the Vallejo submarket. And so that's a great last mile district to be in for sure. We're able to access that facility, really thinking about the stabilized cap rate at around a 10% level U.S. dollar sort of the rental as well. So that's the way we're looking at it sort of seeing that stabilize into a 10% cap. Now it's got an initial 3-year lease period there with the user. So -- sort of coming in at sort of an 8% area, but that's definitely below where we think the market rates are. So just thinking about that on a real embedded rental rate growth profile when you actually look at 3 years down the track, where you think that should land around 10%. And so if you're able to access Mexico City last mile stabilized 10%, dollarized 250,000 square foot, we take that all day long, and we're very excited about that. And yes, potentially, there could be 1 or 2 other opportunistic deals like that, that could come along. We're currently looking at 1 deal in particular and we'd like to think that maybe there's an opportunity to do that opportunistically. Again, let's see, so I think that was a great transaction to pull off from a capital allocation point of view. And I'm happy to say, repeat that success. Moving to the second question, on Monterrey, Juarez. So yes, I think from our own perspective, we -- in line with the market trends, we did see some vacancy there. But when you actually look at what drove that year-over-year, pretty simple story, Jorel, in the sense that we just delivered some Class A product that has not been leased up. So it's been added into our inventory. Both fantastic buildings, and we think very marketable. And again, something that will probably be more linked to USMCA ultimately, given the type of buildings and locations they're at. So we feel very good about the buildings that have been added to inventory, even though they're unleased in the short term. We do think they've got great income potential over the medium term. And we actually take the step back there, Jorel, actually not just what we've delivered in Monterrey and Juarez, but the other Class A product we have that basically has income potential and you add that up in terms of sort of getting close to 1 million square feet around the country. The exciting thing there is that we actually do have some real embedded growth that I don't think has been properly priced into our valuation or share price. And any type of a meaningful lease up there on that sort of Class A development product that we have, we're fully invested. It's basically built product ready to be leased up, mainly subject to USMCA, if you want to say that. That's got the potential ability to add something like, I'd say, comfortably north of $10 million at the NOI level. And you can obviously just drop that down to AFFO as well given that we're essentially fully funded and built that. So that's a pretty exciting sort of short-term opportunity we think, to help drive NOI and earnings is to basically take advantage of improving market conditions into next year, particularly with USMCA to trigger that lease-up. Wilfredo Jorel Guilloty: And a quick follow-up, if I may. So the sale leaseback opportunity, you mentioned there's a few in Mexico City, but are there opportunities such as those in other markets that you're in? And would it be focused on logistics? Simon Hanna: Yes. I think the answer is there are. Obviously, we're sort of looking at selective opportunities here. We particularly like Mexico City Logistics. That's a favored market for us where we'd like to increase our footprint. There are other opportunities in those other large consumption markets as well, sort of more of a logistics spend, you could say. But as I say, when you look actually see what's in our immediate pipeline and possible opportunities, we're thinking more Mexico City as being executable in the short term. Operator: The next question is from the line of Alejandra Obregon with Morgan Stanley. Alejandra Obregon: Mine is on capital allocation as well. So I was just wondering if you can provide some color on how you're thinking of your uses of cash for 2026. I mean if we split it between dividends, acquisitions, development, how would that look like in 2026? And what are the elements that will get you to any sort of decision on the mix on that front? And then the second one is on the M&A market. So I was just wondering if you're seeing any change in sentiment or acceleration in M&A activity that perhaps could trigger some recycling opportunities for you other than the sale and leaseback that you just mentioned? Simon Hanna: Sure. Yes. Thanks, Alejandra. So yes, look, I think in terms of capital allocation, fairly consistent outlook with how we currently have been deploying our capital. I think the main focus in the medium to long-term is going to be on that industrial development program. We have a land bank there of around 5 million square feet of buildable GLA in core markets. So that's something that we can flex up in terms of development activity. As you know, we've been doing 0 construction starts for the last few quarters. But as we get better visibility on demand fundamentals, that will remain the primary avenue of how we allocate our capital into those development properties, mainly on a spec basis, you could say. We remain also interested in pursuing certain opportunities in the short term. They boil down, as I say, one is 2 opportunistic acquisitions where we can access those sort of development like returns, if you want to call it that, something like the 10% cap Mexico City. If we can do that on a more sort of a bite-sized basis to complement what we're doing on the development program, that's great. I would say the other investment portal would be through strategic land bank investments to basically complement and add to the $5 million that we have so that we will basically continue that runway for building out getting back to that sort of 1 million to 2 million square feet of velocity on a medium- to long-term basis is where you want to be. And adding to that land bank will be an important part of that equation. When it comes to buyback, I guess that's obviously another opportunity. I'm not sure, Andrew, if you wanted to give color on that. Andrew McDonald-Hughes: Yes, happy to. I think as we've said previously, we continue to favor allocating capital to development and value-add opportunities where we see obviously; a, you have a much lesser impact on the balance sheet over the long-term. You're not impacting liquidity overall and you're setting yourself up for valuation upside and the growth of those underlying assets. And so we'll continue to do that. I think historically, we've guided to in the order of $100 million to $150 million of development per year. We've obviously been softer this year given the broader macro backdrop, but we continue to work towards some permitting and predevelopment works with respect to the recent acquisitions that we made in both Guadalajara and Tijuana. And I think there's a good opportunity for those particular projects to progress over the next 12 months. And I think more to the point, we see a broader opportunity for future growth with the embedded potential recycling opportunity of our retail portfolio, along with the broader liquidity that we have access to through the balance sheet, which really sets us up for in the order of $500 million worth of potential firepower over the medium term. So ultimately, from a growth perspective, over the near term, there's a deep sense of embedded value with the development projects that we have delivered to date that are well positioned for lease-up once we see the tailwinds return to the markets, which we're positive on with respect to how that looks over the short to medium term. And just with what we have already completed and delivered; that's in excess of $10 million in potential NOI contribution over the coming years. And we think that, that will come to fruition and have a good line of sight to lease up on those properties as we go through the USMCA renewal and have more, I think, surety on the tariff and macro backdrop going forward through 2026 and into 2027. So overall, I think broadly speaking, from a capital allocation standpoint and the growth opportunities that the business is well positioned. Alejandra Obregon: Excellent. That was very clear. Operator: The next question is from the line of Alan Macias with Bank of America. Alan Macias: My question was answered, but just going back to M&A, anything on the table regarding the retail sector? Simon Hanna: Yes. Thanks, Alan. Good to hear you. So I think retail, we're definitely very satisfied with the general trend of what we're seeing in operating financial metrics at the risk of repeating myself, but happy to say at 93.6%, record occupancy on a post-pandemic basis, NOI essentially at record levels, up around sort of $7 million, $8 million quarterly run rate. It's been a fantastic contributor to the overall returns. As we think about operational performance, probably a little bit more upside to go, I think, even as good as it's been, that we are seeing some interesting opportunities to add to that overall, NOI performance, and that will obviously lead into valuation also becoming higher. And as you think about that sort of valuation number, it's not insignificant by any means, sort of -- we're talking sort of $300 million plus. And so the interesting dynamic that we're seeing just as NOI continues to improve is obviously a more conducive interest rate backdrop with the interest rates locally falling from, let's say, 10% to sub-8% and you're sort of getting into positive leverage territory and sort of more compelling M&A backdrop. So we like the sound of that in terms of how that's all converging and [indiscernible] for an ability to start thinking about that sort of medium-term opportunity that Andrew mentioned around recycling. And really, that's what we've got to be thinking about in terms of -- apart from that short-term catalyst to grow earnings, which is really simple, which is just to lease up the Class A stuff that we've built and is ready for lease-up. The medium-term opportunity is certainly quite exciting and quite compelling when we think about that embedded firepower of around $500 million, that really allows us to flex up when it comes to building out the land bank and thinking about additional investments. We feel quite excited and well positioned with the ability to do that. Operator: Thank you. At this time, there are no further questions. I'd like to turn the floor back to management for closing remarks. Simon Hanna: Yes. Thank you for that, Rob, and thank you for everyone for participating in today's call. Along with Andrew, I would like to thank all of our stakeholders for your ongoing support, and we very much look forward to speaking with you over the coming days and weeks as well as updating you again at the end of the quarter. So have a great one. Thank you. Operator: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for joining our presentation today. You may now disconnect.
Operator: Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Alpine Income Property Trust Q3 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised, today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jenna McKinney, please go ahead. Jenna McKinney: Thank you. Joining me in participating on the call this morning are John Albright, President and Chief Executive Officer; Philip Mays, Chief Financial Officer; and other members of the executive team that will be available to answer questions during the call. As a reminder, many of our comments today are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. The company's actual future results may differ significantly from the matters discussed in these forward-looking statements, and we undertake no duty to update these statements. Factors and risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are disclosed from time to time in greater detail in the company's Form 10-K, Form 10-Q and other SEC filings. You can find our SEC reports, earnings release and most recent investor presentation, which contain reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures we use on our website at www.alpinereit.com. With that, I will turn the call over to John. John Albright: Thank you, Jenna, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased to report another strong quarter highlighted by AFFO per share growth of 4.5% compared to the same quarter last year and meaningful investment activity, both during and shortly after the quarter end. We believe this investment activity has set a foundation for continued earnings growth through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. Starting with our investment activity. During the quarter, we acquired 2 properties ground leased to Lowe's for $21.1 million at a weighted average initial cap rate of 6% and a weighted average lease term or WALT of 11.6 years. Investment-grade rate at Lowe's is now our largest tenant by AVR, surpassing investment-grade rated DICK'S Sporting Goods, which now ranks #2. Year-to-date, through the third quarter, property acquisition volume totaled $60.8 million at a weighted average initial cap rate of 7.7% and a WALT of 13.6 years. Regarding the property dispositions during the quarter, we sold 3 assets for $6.2 million, including an Advance Auto Parts, our vacant theater arena in a vacant property formerly leased to a convenience store. Year-to-date, disposition volumes through September 30 was $34.3 million, of which $29 million, excluding vacant properties was sold at a weighted average exit cap rate of 8.4%. As of quarter end, our property portfolio consisted of 128 properties totaling 4.1 million square feet across 34 states with approximately 99.4% occupied, with 48% of ABR derived from investment-grade rated tenants and a WALT of 8.7 years. Additionally, after the quarter end, we acquired a four-property portfolio for $3.8 million with a weighted average initial cap rate of 8.4% and went nonrefundable on a sales contract on 1 of our 8 remaining Walgreens for $5.5 million. Now moving to our loan investments. As a result of our long-term reputation and deep relationships, we continue to see and capitalize on exciting opportunities to originate high-yielding quality loans with strong sponsors at compelling risk-adjusted returns. During the quarter, we originated 2 loans and 1 upsized loan totaling $28.6 million at a weighted average initial yield of 10.6%. This included a first mortgage loan for industrial redevelopment and a seller financing note related to the sale of our former theater in Reno. Year-to-date, through September 30, we originated $74.8 million of commitments for loan investments at a weighted average initial cash yield of 9.9%. Additionally, as disclosed in our earnings release, we have originated 3 loans since the quarter end. Most notably, a first mortgage loan secured by luxury residential development located in Austin, Texas metropolitan area. Under this loan agreement, we have funded $14.1 million at closing related to a Phase 1 loan with a total commitment of $29.5 million. The loan agreement also provides for Phase II loan with a commitment of up to $31.8 million, all additional funding is subject to the borrower satisfaction of certain conditions. Currently, we anticipate funding the balance of the Phase 1 loan by year-end and the Phase II loan in early 2026. The 36-month loan initially bears interest at 17% inclusive of 4% paid-in-kind interest for the full loan term, stepping down to 16% for month 7 to 12 and 14% thereafter. The loan will be repaid as collateralized home lots are sold with such sales anticipated to begin as early as late 2025. We believe this loan as all of our loans is secured by strong real estate backed by high-quality sponsor. As is often the case with our larger loans, there is institutional interest in pursuing a purchase of a senior tranche of this loan, and we currently anticipate participating in a portion of it out to reduce our net hold and further enhance our yield. In summary, we believe that our recent investment activity across both property and loan investment positions Pine for continued growth through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. With that, I'll turn the call over to Phil. Philip Mays: Thanks, John. Beginning with financial results. For the third quarter, total revenue was $14.6 million, including lease income of $12.1 million and interest income from loan investments of $2.3 million. FFO and AFFO for the quarter were both $0.46 per diluted share, representing 2.2% and 4.5% growth, respectively, over the comparable quarter of the prior year. Year-to-date through September 30, total revenue was $43.6 million, including lease income of $36 million and interest income from loan investments of $7.4 million. FFO and AFFO were both $1.34 per share, representing 3.9% and 3.1% growth, respectively, over the comparable period of the prior year. Regarding our common dividend, as previously announced, during the quarter, we declared and paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.285. Our dividend represents an annualized yield of approximately 8.25% and remains well covered with an approximate AFFO payout ratio of 62% for the third quarter. Moving to the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with net debt to pro forma adjusted EBITDA at 7.7x and $61 million of liquidity, consisting of approximately $1.2 million of cash available for use and $60.2 million available under our revolving credit facility. However, with in-place bank commitments, the available capacity on our revolving credit facility can expand an additional $31.3 million as we acquire properties, providing total potential liquidity of more than $90 million. Regarding our property portfolio, we ended the quarter with annualized base rent of $46.3 million on a straight-line basis. As noted before, this amount includes approximately $3.8 million of ABR related to 3 single-tenant restaurant properties acquired in 2024 through a sales leaseback transaction. Under GAAP, we are accounting for these specific sales leaseback transactions as financings. Accordingly, the current annual cash payments of approximately $2.9 million are reflected as interest income in our statement of operations as opposed to lease income. Given the level of loan activity after quarter end, let me provide a current update. Our loan portfolio as of today, reflecting the activity John discussed and some other recent activity, is now approximately $94 million at a weighted average interest rate of 11.5%. Notably, of this amount, approximately $21 million at a weighted average rate of 10.4% is scheduled to mature in 2026. We currently expect to utilize proceeds from these 2026 maturities, selling a senior tranche of 1 or more loan investments, property dispositions and existing capacity on our revolving credit facility to fund loan commitments. One quick note, the $1.9 million impairment charge recorded this quarter related to Walgreens that is currently under contract to be sold. Now turning to guidance. As a result of our recent elevated investment activity, we are increasing both our FFO and AFFO outlook for the full year of 2025 to a new range of $1.82 to $1.85 per diluted share from the previous range of $1.74 to $1.77 per diluted share. With that, operator, please open the call to questions. Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Michael Goldsmith: A lot of investment activity, both during the quarter and subsequent to quarter end. So can you just provide a little color on how you're thinking about funding all of this activity? John Albright: Michael, it's John. Thanks. Look, we -- as you know, we've been very busy on the recycling side. So some of that's going to come from asset sales as we keep on continuing to increase the credit quality of our portfolio. And then a little bit of this is our loans maturing. And then basically a little bit going to be net growth in anticipation of additional sales so a little bit of balance on both sides. Michael Goldsmith: Got it. And then all this loan activity, you're seeing really nice yields on that, I guess the way it cuts the other way is it can generate lumpiness in the quarters as they come due. So can you talk a little bit about how you're thinking about managing that and these loan expirations just to ensure the AFFO doesn't move around too much. John Albright: Yes. So obviously a good question. I mean when we started this kind of loan program about 3 years ago, that was a little bit of the pushback was, well, you can't replace these loans at these rates. But here we are. We are doing it with really existing relationships without even trying and so certainly, as we see more opportunities, part of that funding mechanism that Phil mentioned is selling off senior pieces of these loans. And these loans are very -- are very bite size, and there's a lot of capital out there. So there's a lot of opportunities. So I would -- I'm not worried about replacing these and having kind of earnings coming down because of these are onetime sort of opportunities. We're seeing a strong pipeline of super high-quality kind of assets and sponsorships. Michael Goldsmith: Got it. Well, if you're doing this without really trying -- excited to see what you do when you put some effort into it. I'm just kidding. Thank you very much, good luck in the fourth quarter. Operator: Our next question comes from R.J. Milligan with Raymond James. R.J. Milligan: John, with the recent activity now in residential development, I think you guys have a loan in Industrial. Just can you tell us how you're thinking about other property types and if you're going to continue to pursue things outside of retail? John Albright: Yes. It's not by design, kind of going out here just these unique opportunities with very strong sponsors and very strong assets. The industrial property that we did in Fremont outside of San Francisco, that was actually a retail property that the sponsor is basically converting to industrial to a higher and best use. So part of our underwriting on that is if it was -- if we ever had to foreclose it's roughly 50% of the acquisition, it could still be retail and work on our basis. So to answer your question, we're going to stay more focused on the retail side for sure. But not -- but if we see unique opportunities in that short duration, we're not opposed to taking on those opportunities. R.J. Milligan: Okay. That's helpful. And then, Phil, you talked about some of the sources of capital next year, some of the loan maturities, potential asset sales. Should we expect that to get reinvested? Or will those proceeds be used to pay down debt, lower leverage? Philip Mays: A little bit of both, but I think, first, they're going to get reinvested into a lot of the loans that were recently done, R.J. So the maturity is coming back from the '26 loans are going to -- we're just kind of proactively redeploying that capital a little early with the loans going out first. The new loans going out first. So a lot of that is going to just recycle into that. But on the margin, you could see leverage tick down a little bit. Operator: Our next question comes from Alec Feygin with Baird. Alec Feygin: So on the luxury residential development in Austin, can you talk about how you got comfortable with the loan and what stage of development it currently is at? John Albright: Yes. So we're familiar, if you think back at our origins of CTO and when I got here 14 years ago, we had 14,000 acres of land in the Daytona Beach to sell. So we are very familiar with residential lot development through that experience. So with regards to kind of where this project is, it's really at the kind of finish line of delivering lots and actually, there'll be some lot sales starting next week, in fact. So it's really kind of coming in at the late stage and not on the early stage. Alec Feygin: Nice. And kind of on that loan, how much of the loan are you looking to sell? John Albright: We'll probably look to sell potentially 50% of it. It really depends on how fast the proceeds come back. So it could be less, but potentially up to 50%. Alec Feygin: And then switching gears a bit with the vacant assets that were sold in the quarter, how much do we need to remove from operating expenses that you're carrying? Philip Mays: Yes. This is Phil. So the 2 largest vacant properties we have are the theater in Reno, which was sold, that had an annual run rate on the expense side of about $400,000. And the one that we have left at large is the former Party City and that also has a run rate of close to $400,000 on an annual basis. So you can -- if you were to run rate the current quarter, that will come down another about $400,000 on an annual basis once Party City is sold. Alec Feygin: And Party City wasn't sold this quarter that... Philip Mays: It was not. Reno was sold in the quarter. It was sold early in the quarter. So pretty much the full impact of that is reflected. But Party City is not sold yet. Alec Feygin: Okay. There were 2 vacant assets sold in the quarter. So is the other one just minor? Philip Mays: Yes, there was a little -- we have -- those are the 2 largest, Reno and Party City. We have a few. We had former convenience stores that are really small. There's sold one during the quarter, there's 2 left. Altogether, those don't even come up to $100,000 on an annual run rate. So they're very small and on the margin. Operator: Our next question comes from Rob Stevenson with Janney Montgomery Scott. Robert Stevenson: Is the sale large loan interest that you may do, is that in the disposition guidance or dispositions just properties in terms of the guidance? Philip Mays: It's -- if we were -- it's not -- it would be on the high end, Rob, that happened or exceeding the high end if it happens before the end of the year. The timing of it is a little hard every day. It could be just before the end of the year or it could be a little bit after the end of the year. If that were to happen before the end of the year, that would put us on the high end or over the high end of guidance on the dispose side. Robert Stevenson: Okay. But you would classify that as a disposition? Okay. Philip Mays: We historically put dispositions of loans with properties there. And if you look at the guidance, we kind of added the line for that a little bucket when we put year-to-date actuals and there was a line that had loan sales and it showed 0 just to kind of help clarify that we do kind of look at that as a disposition, but if the loan 1 were to happen, we would probably be just over our high end. Robert Stevenson: Okay. Because the reason why I ask is, if I look at the year-to-date investment in disposition volumes versus the guidance, they are sort of implying between $50 million and $65 million of net investments in the fourth quarter. You got $27.5 million in terms of rough numbers from the proceeds from the repayment of Publix and Verizon. Just trying to figure out how you're going to finance that especially given where the stock price is. I don't know, John, if you're comfortable issuing equity here or whether or not you guys just use the line, but was sort of curious as to like how you guys are thinking about the sort of incremental there and where does sort of leverage peak out at here in the fourth quarter if you do decide to fund any of those net investments on the line? Philip Mays: Yes. So just before -- and then I can -- I'll let John answer. But on the investments, we always put the full amount for the properties, obviously. And for the loans, we put the origination or the initial amount committed. So today, we're sitting at almost $200 million if you include all the subsequent activity on investments. And of that $130 million, $135 million is loans, Rob, but only 72 have funded so far. So we also, in the guidance, put in brackets there kind of on the loans just to help clarify, because it's a great question, how much of the loans are funded year-to-date. So the full amount of that won't fund because the loans won't fully fund by the end of the year. Robert Stevenson: Okay. So the net would wind up being lower than that sort of $50 million to $65 million that you're implying because that's including the full value. Philip Mays: Yes. I mean there could be $50 million, $60 million of that, that's loans that are not funded. Robert Stevenson: Okay. That's helpful because it was looking like that leverage was going to peak out at something more substantial here if you guys did it all on the line? Philip Mays: Yes, yes. So there could be $50 million to $60 million of that number that's loan related, that's unfunded by year-end. And then on top of that, you could also see like an A note sale prior to the end of the year that would further help lighten that load for the funding. Robert Stevenson: Okay. And then I guess, John, what is sort of left within the property portfolio that you want to sell? I mean, is this going through in sort of cleaning up anything remaining? Is it whittling down some of the dollar stuff? How are you thinking about when you look at dispositions, not only in the fourth quarter but in 2026, like what are you sort of thinking that you're going to wind up selling and where is the market for those type of assets today? John Albright: Yes. So as we discussed previously, we still have some Walgreens that we definitely are moving through and with dollar stores, as you hit on certainly will be something we'll trim back on. And then there's some other -- we've sold Advance Auto Parts and that sort of things in Tractor supplies and so those sort of assets will continue to kind of grind through, if you will, as we see good pricing. So it's just really using that as a way to kind of reinvest in some of the high credits that we put on this quarter, Lowe's and so forth. So you'll see us be active at the end of the year here with continuingly bring in some real super high-quality type credits, and we're looking forward to kind of what this company looks like starting next year. Robert Stevenson: And then I guess given the acquisition of the Lowe's, was that opportunistic? Or just from your standpoint, is the property acquisitions going forward going to be more targeted towards the higher credit quality and basically investment grade and above quality tenants? Or are you still looking to acquire stuff across the spectrum on a property-specific basis? John Albright: Yes. On the Lowe's, that was off market. It was a relationship driven. We had seen these assets before a couple of years ago, and they're pulled off the market. So we're extremely excited about having those in our portfolio. With regards to -- so you'll see more of the high-quality credit, big box sort of assets coming in. You probably won't see us be active in buying a generic Tractor Supply. Clearly, we don't have car washes. So we like that distinction that no car wash is in the portfolio. So we feel like we're set up pretty strong to kind of offer investors something a little bit different, getting the Lowe's and DICK'S in the top 5 just gives investors an exposure that they can't get at other locations? Robert Stevenson: Okay. Then last one for me. Is all of beachside open and producing at this point? Or is there still some of that stuff that's down and that you're getting insurance payments on? John Albright: No, it's all been open for a while. I mean they opened those up less than 4 months after the hurricane last year. And interesting enough, I mean, they still -- when they open, they weren't obviously as polished looking as they were previous to the hurricane, but they did better sales than they did pre-hurricane. So a lot of pent-up demand from customers and unfortunately, some of their competition did not reopen. So it just kind of drove more traffic to those restaurants. Robert Stevenson: Okay. So rent coverage today is actually higher than where it was pre-hurricane? John Albright: Yes. Robert Stevenson: Appreciate the time, and have a great weekend. John Albright: you, too. Operator: Our next question comes from Gaurav Mehta with Alliance Global Partners. Gaurav Mehta: I wanted to ask if you had any update on your properties that are leased to At Home. John Albright: Yes. So those properties as we kind of -- the one is in Concord, North Carolina, that could be sold in the not-too-distant future. And the others are the same situation where we're monitoring kind of what At Home is doing. But if they come back, we have -- we're working on replacement tenants. So the idea would be if At Home vacated 1 of the properties, we would have a replacement tenant in and then we would sell it at a better cap rate than as At Home. So it's a manageable exposure and potential upside. Gaurav Mehta: Okay. Second question, I want to go back to the 2 loans that you did after September, the interest rates on both of them are higher than the year-to-date loan activity, can you provide some color on why the rates were higher at 17% and 16%. John Albright: Phil, do you want to handle that? Philip Mays: Yes. So he was just asking about why the interest rates on the residential and the mixed use are significantly higher than the blended rate for the portfolio. John Albright: Yes. So on that, basically because it's such short duration loan that so kind of give you more background than maybe you want. Is that the competition for a loan for that sort of product would be mainly from an opportunity fund or a credit fund and those funds really aren't looking to invest where the duration is less than 2 years in order to kind of get a multiple. So we're able to give highly flexible loan, but for that we charge a much higher rate. And so just the flexibility of our loan in the short duration gives us that higher interest rate investment. Operator: Our next question comes from John Massocca with B. Riley Securities. John Massocca: So maybe given all of the investment activity on the loan front, in particularly subsequent to quarter end. Do you view that as maybe kind of the max level you want to be at in terms of a loan balance if this all kind of blends out? Or could you kind of pursue more of that and become, I guess maybe more of like a mixed loan net lease type 3. It feels like the amount of loan investments are starting to -- certainly in terms of the investment activity outweigh the net lease transactions. John Albright: I would say that the -- it just kind of really kind of came together here this last quarter. But the loan activity could tick up from here for sure. But as it's a little bit in anticipation of things burning off, paying down, paying off. And then we are super active on the core net lease side with larger type assets. So you'll see the similar balance, but we think we're delivering -- we know we're delivering really strong free cash flow and high earnings and there's other net lease REITs out there that do the loan program as well. And then you have REITs like VICI that have a balance of net lease and loans. So it's not like we're in a new frontier here. John Massocca: I just remember thinking and maybe I'm misremembering, the loans are kind of an opportunistic thing a couple of years ago, and now it feels like they've become a bigger part of the investment strategy. I'm wondering if that's something you view as like permanent on a go-forward basis? Or if it's still something that's temporary where you found this kind of opportunistic way to kind of accretively deploy your capital even in a challenged equity market? John Albright: No, it's definitely a good point. Yes. So when we are opportunistically thinking that it was like a onetime opportunity. It's become repeat, customers are coming back to us because of the flexibility and the speed that we can transact on. They're willing to pay a higher rate. And then as you know, we get right of first refusal on acquiring these assets. So if the market stalls and cap rates tick up, we have an opportunity to bring these into our portfolio. And so like I've said before, we're getting paid a much higher yield than going out and buying some sort of generic net lease property in the middle of nowhere. We're basically in Austin with very opportunistic type yields with very high-quality sponsor and high-quality asset. And then the Publix that we had payoff in Charlotte, Publix in Charlotte, I think that paid off because they sold it at 5.25% cap. So these are we're getting double-digit unlevered yields on assets that will sell for really, really low cap rates. So it's great to see the opportunities that we're able to kind of -- it's become more of a permanent fixture as the sponsors are still very active in the development side on these credit tenants and the banking system just really is slower, less proceeds, and this is -- we're just basically providing an answer to their capital needs in a much more efficient fashion. John Massocca: Understood. And then maybe on a very like micro level, with Cornerstone Exchange, pretty significant jump up in the amount you're kind of lending on that project. Why -- I guess maybe why did it increase by so much? John Albright: It's basically -- they ended up signing some additional leases. So as they've proven out their development with leases, we weren't alone on it until they have a signed lease and so that's what happened. The development has gotten larger as they've signed leases. Operator: Our next question comes from Craig Kucera with Lucid Capital Markets. Craig Kucera: John, I want to circle back with a few questions on the Austin loans. It sounds like you're not taking any entitlement or approval risk at least on Phase 1. Is that a fair assessment as Phase 2 need to be approved? John Albright: It's a fair assessment on both. The entitlements are there for both phases and everything needed to basically deliver. Craig Kucera: Okay. Great. And what is the current LTV at those loans? John Albright: I would put that one in kind of the -- on a discount NPV basis, we're in the 70s. Craig Kucera: Okay. And if you were to sell the senior tranche or a portion of those loans, and I think Phil mentioned it might be upwards of 50%, what would your yield be if you're holding the junior piece? John Albright: I don't want to like go out there with -- I mean it will be higher. I don't want to give you specific numbers. Craig Kucera: Fair enough. All right. Changing gears to Lake Toxaway mixed-use development. Is that just raw land now? Or has the developer started or kind of where in the process of that development? John Albright: Yes. The developer has started. So kind of we're coming in like when they really need to really start doing some additional work and delivering pads and that sort of thing. Operator: Our next question comes from Barry Oxford with Colliers International. Barry Oxford: John, real quick, a couple of questions on the dividend. Given what I'm hearing on the conference call, you want to retain as much capital as possible. Is it fair to say that even though you could raise the dividend for lack of a better word, substantially, any dividend increase will probably be minimal because you want to retain as much capital from an asset allocation. John Albright: That's right. I mean -- so as we progress here and earnings grow, there will be pressure to freeze the dividend just based on what we need to pay out as a REIT. Barry Oxford: Right. So you don't run afoul of the REIT rules. John Albright: Well, we don't want to pay a check to the IRS. We'd rather give it to our shareholders. Barry Oxford: Right, right, right. And then one thing that I noticed in the press release was the credit rate at tenants. Now your investment-grade tenants, the percent of the portfolio was still roughly the same, but you had a fairly good drop with the credit rated tenants. What was going on there? Philip Mays: Credit rated as a percent of the total portfolio. So at the end of the last quarter, it was 51%. Barry Oxford: Yes, it went from 81% to 66% and the credit. Yes, the credit is fine, but... Philip Mays: Yes. That was more -- Barry, that's more the Walgreens and the like that used to have a credit rating dropping them that were very, very low and h ad gone from credit rate to not from investment grade to not investment grade, but we're still carrying a rating. It's more related to a couple of tenants like that, like At Home, Walgreens and such dropping the credit rating altogether, and that's what caused that decrease. Operator: And I'm not showing any further questions at this time. And as such, this does conclude today's presentation. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.
Operator: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Hammond Power Solutions Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. Certain statements that will be discussed in this conference call will constitute forward-looking statements. The forward-looking information and statements included in this discussion are not guarantees of future performance and should not be unduly relied upon. Forward-looking statements will be based on current expectations, estimates and projections that involve a number of risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated and described in the forward-looking statements. Such information and statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking information and statements. These factors include, but are not limited to, such things as the impact of general industry conditions, fluctuations of commodity prices, industry competition, availability of qualified personnel and management, stock market volatility and timely and cost-effective access to sufficient capital from internal and external sources. The risks just outlined should not be construed as exhaustive. Although management of the company believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, listeners should not place undue reliance upon any of the forward-looking information discussed in this call. I'd like to hand the call over to Mr. Adrian Thomas, Chief Executive Officer of Hammond Power Solutions. Mr. Thomas? Adrian Thomas: Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our third quarter update. In the quarter, we recorded revenue of $218 million, marking this our second best quarter for shipments ever, and a 14% increase when compared to Q3 2024. The increase was driven primarily by U.S. shipments with gains in all of our channels to market. The U.S. market experienced its strongest growth in private label channel and steady growth in the distribution channel with strong sales into data centers, switchgear manufacturers, motor control and mining. While sales of stocked products has grown, they have been outpaced by higher sales of custom products. At the same time that our sales grew, profitability for the third quarter remained below the prior year results, with gross margin of 30.1%, mainly due to ongoing material cost pressures and overhead expenses associated with our new facilities in Mexico. In September, we announced that changes to steel and aluminum derivative tariffs, Section 232 tariffs have affected certain products. Although we worked closely with customers and suppliers to address and mitigate these increased costs, our margins experienced short-term negative impacts. Pricing adjustments to offset these added costs were implemented in the final weeks of the third quarter, and we expect margin improvement in the fourth quarter as these adjustments take full effect. We remain vigilant on our cost structure while maintaining strong customer relationships. While material cost inflation and overhead costs relating to our new facilities in Mexico have pressured margins, recent sales developments give us confidence in the quarters ahead. As I have said over the last few quarters, quotation activity has been strong and has now translated into order volume. This increase in order volume grew our backlog in the third quarter by 28% compared to the beginning of the year, mainly driven by our U.S. distribution network and our OEM business. Digging down a little further, we saw data center activity accelerated in the quarter, and we are pleased to note that several large orders were received shortly after it's closed, amounting to 53% of total Q3 closing backlog. These orders are expected to be shipped primarily from our new facilities in Mexico over the next 12 to 18 months. As we have said in prior quarters, particularly with data center customers, we are delivering quotes for larger projects than what had been our historic averages. In addition, these customers require commitments of delivering high volumes within a reasonable time frame. Our Monterrey IV facility was built to provide that ability and the projects we have received have been possible due to those expansions. Due to the nature of some of these projects, we'll be able to exceed our original capacity designs by reconfiguring our equipment, streamlining supply chains and further maximizing square footage. In addition, we will be adding equipment to further increase our production capacity. These new additions and adjustments will add approximately an additional $100 million of capacity to our 2 new Mexico facilities, bringing our total manufacturing capacity to around $1.2 billion by 2027. Speaking for Richard and myself, it is incredibly rewarding to have a team capable of building and launching a new manufacturing facility within just 12 months and pairing that achievement with a sales team that's already engaging with customers to fill that new capacity. I give full credit to our build teams and to our customer service teams, quotes teams and salespeople for their hard work and dedication to meeting our customers' future plans. With that, I will turn it over to Richard for some financial details on the quarter. Richard? Richard Vollering: Thank you, Adrian, and good morning, everyone. I'll start by rounding out some of the items that Adrian touched on earlier. With respect to sales, we've seen a surprisingly resilient U.S. market in terms of shipments of standard and configured products in the distribution channel. We've also seen a significant improvement in bookings for longer lead time custom products led by strong data center orders. Overall, shipments in the third quarter of 2025 to the U.S. and Mexico increased by 21% versus last year. In contrast to that, the Canadian market showed some weakness with sales down by 3%. We believe that this decrease is likely the result of the Canadian economy experiencing slower growth and greater uncertainty in recent months. Gross margin continued to show a decline versus last year and was 30.1% in the third quarter of 2025, down from 30.7% in the second quarter of 2025 and 33.8% in the third quarter of 2024, which is a record high. The decline is a result of higher input costs continuing from the second quarter, with the added impact of tariffs and products being shipped into the U.S. from manufacturing locations outside of the U.S. In the third quarter, we continued to have unabsorbed overheads in our newer factories in Mexico, negatively impacting margins by 233 basis points. Pricing actions taken in September should offset some of these impacts, and we expect absorption to improve as we ramp up production to address a rapidly growing backlog. General and administrative costs are growing more slowly in the third quarter versus previous quarters, improving leverage. Net earnings were $17,440 million in the third quarter of 2025 or $1.46 per share. Adjusted EBITDA was $30,290 million, which was lower than adjusted EBITDA of $34,377 million in the third quarter of 2024. The decrease is attributable to lower gross margins, offset by higher sales volumes. Adjusted EPS was $1.56 in the third quarter of 2025. Working capital requirements increased in the third quarter of 2025 with inventory being the most significant factor. Inventories rose in the quarter due to delays in shipping of certain large projects, safety stock requirements for certain projects and tariffs. Capital spending tracked as we expected with year-to-date spending at $27 million. Looking forward, the increased backlog will help to alleviate the under absorption challenges in the newer factories in 2026, and we expect pricing actions to offset some of the negative inflationary impact on material inputs. We look forward to the quarters ahead. I will now hand the call back to the operator to take any questions from our participants. Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Matthew Lee with Canaccord Genuity. Matthew Lee: I want to drill down on the demand picture a bit. You provided some commentary on the October orders would be very impressive. Do you feel like the large orders are a bit of a onetime item? Or are you seeing sort of a sustainable shift in terms of the bidding environment? Adrian Thomas: Matth, it's Adrian. So I think a couple of things. One, our orders in the quarter were up. We had those significant orders which came in just after quarter close that were significant. What we see, generally speaking, and I made a comment in my remarks is that we're seeing more activity around quotations for larger projects. So we see a trend towards larger projects, particularly in the data center business where people are trying to build quickly and they need large quantities of transformers. So I think that trend is continuing, and I think the ability for us and other manufacturers to supply those quantities is critical to winning those jobs. Matthew Lee: And maybe as a follow-up to that, why are these big projects choosing Hammond over some of the peer groups or competitors? Adrian Thomas: So one, so we've got an established reputation in the industry for the quality of our products and for delivery. And second, as I mentioned earlier, just the confidence of the customer that we have the capacity to deliver those quantities of equipment. Matthew Lee: Okay. Great. And then maybe just one on the CapEx side. You mentioned that you're able to kind of do $1.2 billion in capacity with Monterrey IV. But I mean if demand continues this way, how easily could you open up a Monterrey V? Or would capacity beyond $1.2 billion be difficult to create? Adrian Thomas: Yes. So we're always evaluating the capacity requirements and locations. I think what you saw, we built 2 factories in Mexico successively pretty quickly. We have the ability now that we have those 2 new facilities to add some equipment in there, maximize the footprint. The other thing unique about these orders, although they're custom transformers, they're high quantities, high runs. So we're also able to utilize our footprint more effectively for those. So we'll continue to analyze that. We'll continue to add equipment, and we will continue to add capacity so that we can meet our future demands. Operator: Our next question comes from Baltej Sidhu with National Bank of Canada. Baltej Sidhu: So a few questions from me. So if we're looking at Line 4 in Mexico, how are conversations with potential customers evolving, appreciating the incremental investment for capacity? And just following up on that, could you provide color on how booked out Monterrey IV is? Adrian Thomas: So we were able over the last year to bring a number of customers down to Mexico to show our facilities and our operations and progress on the plant. And so I think that built confidence with our customers that they saw the capacity coming on board. Sorry, what was your second question? Baltej Sidhu: So just any color that we can have on Monterrey IV and capacity utilization and how booked out it is? Adrian Thomas: Yes. So when we announced it, we had announced sort of $120 million capacity. We will be adding additional equipment, and we'll be optimizing supply chains. So I believe with some additional CapEx this year, we should be able to add another $100 million of capacity to that factory. Baltej Sidhu: Okay. Great. And then just turning over to the backlog. Great to see the growth in Q3. And particularly of interest was the 53% of total value booked already a month in the quarter. Could you give any color on what percent of that sales would be from data centers in the backlog? Adrian Thomas: Nearly all of it is data center. Operator: Our next question comes from Nicholas Boychuk with Cormark Securities. Nicholas Boychuk: I just want to confirm my understanding on something here. So $100 million of new capacity that you're adding, is that specifically from Monterrey IV? Or does that include the other organic initiatives and facility improvements that you're doing across the spectrum of your assets? Adrian Thomas: Primarily [ not ] Monterrey IV. Nicholas Boychuk: Okay. So are there other things that you mentioned in the MD&A quickly that there are both capacity improvements, flow improvements, things that you can do at existing facilities. Is there additional capacity we could think about on top of the $1.2 billion outside of that? Adrian Thomas: So it's primarily Monterrey IV. We are reshuffling some of our production footprint. So we will utilize other factories as we optimize Mon IV. So we are doing some enhancements at other factories that will allow us to get more output out of Mon IV by taking some other loads and putting in other factories. So it's all inclusive of our other footprint. Nicholas Boychuk: Okay. Got it. And then just thinking about Mon IV, can you guys comment at all on the contribution margin and how we should be thinking about what that looks like on the custom business versus what you've historically done in wells? Is it fair to say that once you get that facility operational and fully humming and it's doing some of these larger data center projects, is the contribution margin higher than what we've historically seen? Richard Vollering: Yes. Nick, it's Richard. So Yes. Listen, I think -- I mean, as you know and as you can imagine, manufacturing in Mexico is less expensive. And having some of these projects where we can do longer runs is more efficient, particularly when you're ramping up labor and training and that kind of thing. So the other side of that is, of course, the pricing equation, right? And so I think you have to put the 2 of those things together. And because some of these large projects, I mean, as you can imagine, they're going to be competitive, very competitive. So I wouldn't -- I don't have an expectation that it's going to be significantly accretive to our margins, but it will definitely help our absorption. So to the extent that we are unabsorbed in those factories today, a lot of that will go away as we ramp them up with this new volume. Nicholas Boychuk: Okay. Makes sense. And when you say that these are longer run items, does that mean that you have greater visibility into data center demand where you'll be able to sell the similar product into other data centers? Or does it have applicability into other more traditional segments that you've sold into? Adrian Thomas: So when Richard -- so every data center customer has a unique sort of architecture, but there's a lot of similarities. So the longer run is when we do one design and then we're producing it. So what we see in a lot of other industries, we will do a design, and there will be a handful, maybe 2, 3, maybe 6 transformer for that design for the project and then you do a different design. When Richard says longer runs, you may see hundreds of the same design for some data center buildup. So that gives us some efficiencies. To reconfigure for -- we can use the same equipment. There is some spacing and some other things that minor tweaks that we do. So that does allow us to pack more in when we're doing these longer runs that we would have to reconfigure if we had a different mix. So that's how the longer runs help us. Nicholas Boychuk: Okay. Got it. And then last for me, just on the backlog. I know in the past, you've mentioned and even in the MD&A, highlighted again that the backlog isn't necessarily fully indicative of somebody placing an order. It's not a firm deposit. But given that these data center contracts that came in subsequent to Q3 are much larger than you've historically seen, were you guys able to get them to place an actual cash deposit or make this a little bit more of a firm order that you can then bank on versus an indication in the past? Adrian Thomas: Yes. These orders have deposits and firm commitments. Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Jim Byrne with Acumen. Jim Byrne: Richard, could you maybe just help us quantify the Mexico impact here on Q3 margins? Is it 1%, 100 basis points from kind of a drag from where you would expect margins to be? Or -- just help us understand that. Richard Vollering: Jim, yes. So in the MD&A, we talked about the impact of absorption having a 233 basis point impact on the margins. Jim Byrne: Okay. That's helpful. And then just thinking about the stock product and kind of distribution, maybe just starting with Mexico, I know that, that was something that was kind of a goal of yours to implement more and achieve more product distribution down there. How is that going? Adrian Thomas: So we continue to develop customer relationships. We have been able to develop some relationships because of our custom product down there, and then that drives some interest in customers working with us on standard products. I would say, Jim, overall, particularly with how much the U.S. has been growing recently. It's small in the total dollars, but we're making incremental progress. Jim Byrne: Okay. And then maybe just lastly, I didn't see or didn't hear any commentary just kind of on stock product in general in the U.S. Are we past kind of the construction slowdown that kind of was impacting results earlier in the year and you're kind of seeing a more normal market down there? Richard Vollering: Yes. So it's interesting because I think generally, a lot of the segments in the market are showing some weakness. And that hasn't really trickled through to our standard product sales. There is business out there. I think maybe one of the things to remember is that construction, it can be office construction, it can be data center construction, but they all need transformers. They need the large custom transformers, but they need smaller distribution transformers as well. So I mean that demand comes from a lot of different places. But the short answer is no. I mean we haven't seen a slowdown in stock products. It's been doing quite well. Operator: Next question comes from Baltej Sidhu with National Bank of Canada. Baltej Sidhu: Just one more for me here. So private label sales strength continued into Q3 from Q2. What would be driving that demand? And could we see this sustain going forward? And would it be fair to say that this would be typically custom product? Adrian Thomas: You cut out on our end, could you repeat your question? Baltej Sidhu: Yes. So private label sales strength continued into Q3 from Q2. What would be driving that demand there? And could we see this as sustained? And would this be fair to say that, that product mix would be oriented more towards custom? Adrian Thomas: Yes. Almost all of that is custom. And generally speaking, it's commercial construction. There is some data center in there as well. But predominantly, it's general commercial construction activity. So I think, as Richard mentioned, we continue to see sales on stock product that's going into general construction, and we saw good volume in the private label side. But there is a mix of data center business in there as well. So we would expect the private label volume to continue either way. Operator: That concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to Adrian Thomas for closing remarks. Adrian Thomas: Thank you, operator. We're proud of what we have accomplished over the last few months and are motivated by our major customer projects to continue driving our growth trajectory and expanding our organizational capacity. While we'll continue to explore acquisition opportunities, I believe our ongoing production initiatives and capital expansion plans position us well for sustained growth in a world increasingly driven by demand for data and electricity. I thank everyone for joining us today. Operator: This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator: Good morning, and welcome to the Healthpeak Properties, Inc. Third Quarter 2025 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Andrew Johns, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Andrew Johns: Welcome. Today's conference call contains certain forward-looking statements. Although we believe expectations reflected in any forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. Discussion of risks and risk factors is included in our press release and detailed in our filings with the SEC. We do not undertake a duty to update any forward-looking statements. Certain non-GAAP financial measures will be discussed on this call. In an exhibit of the 8-K referred to the SEC yesterday, we have reconciled all non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in accordance with regulatory requirements. The exhibit is also available on our website at healthpeak.com. I'll now turn the call over to our President, Chief Executive Officer, Scott Brinker. Scott Brinker: Thank you, Andrew, and welcome to Healthpeak's third quarter 2025 earnings call. Joining me for prepared remarks is our CFO, Kelvin Moses. The past 60 days or so signal a turning point in our business. Leading indicators in life science are turning positive and private market values for outpatient medical are strengthening. As a premier scaled owner in both businesses, we see significant value and upside when we look at our stock price today. Two years ago, against the backdrop of raging inflation, the outpatient sector was out of favor in both the public and private markets. We saw a sector with good fundamentals that we're getting even better and seized an opportunity to grow our portfolio by $5 billion in a strategic merger with Physicians Realty Trust. In doing so, we established the best portfolio and platform in the outpatient sector. The merger also accelerated the strategic goal I described 3 years ago to get closer to our real estate and our tenants. We've now internalized property management on 39 million square feet with line of sight on another 3 million square feet. We now own the tenant relationship and the local market knowledge. The internalization also allows us to deploy technology at the property level quickly and at scale. With the addition of JT, Mark and team, we deepened our relationships across the outpatient ecosystem, creating proprietary growth opportunities, including accretive new development projects. Flash forward to today, as inflation has come down, there's a deep pool of buyers for outpatient medical. It's a great time for us to sell less core real estate and to recap some assets. We're in various stages of negotiation and execution on transactions that have the potential to generate proceeds of $1 billion or more. We see an exciting window to recycle outpatient sale proceeds into higher-return lab opportunities where the leading indicators are starting to turn positive. Increased M&A less regulatory noise, lower interest rates, positive data readouts, solid FDA approvals and priority reviews and recent biotech outperformance in the stock market. The real estate market will obviously lag, but the building blocks for a recovery in demand are encouraging. Our leasing pipeline today is roughly 2x the pipeline at the start of the year. We're also seeing some vacant development projects across the sector get absorbed by alternative uses, which will help accelerate a return to more balanced supply and demand. Important to note that purpose-built lab buildings are highly flexible and can support many alternative uses. I'll repeat that our occupancy will decline for the next few months due to expirations and terminations, but we're now gaining more confidence that will be the bottom on occupancy. At that point, we'll have more than 2 million square feet of available space in good submarkets to lease up and recapture NOI. We recently welcomed Denis Sullivan to our team. He will play a pivotal role in our life science business and investment strategy. Denis spent 14 years at BioMed, including time as CFO and CIO. We have exceptional local market leaders in the Bay Area with Natalia De Michele, with dentists in San Diego and with Claire Brown in Boston, all rolling up to Scott Bowen, our segment leader. We believe we have the footprint, people and balance sheet to capture market share as the sector recovers. Our CCRC business is performing at a high level. Six years ago, we bought out the 51% interest in the portfolio held by our joint venture partner, and we installed a new operator. Since then, NOI is up more than 50%, including double-digit growth this year. We believe then and now that the entry fee product is very attractive to seniors on fixed incomes, we are looking for a lower monthly rent payment. The continuum of care we offer is viewed favorably by seniors and their families because it creates peace of mind they won't need to move again in the future. And that's very important at that stage of life. Sequential occupancy in the portfolio was up 70 basis points, and we expect continued growth in the fourth quarter. I'll wrap up with our technology initiatives, which are already paying off with efficiency gains. Our G&A this year is projected at $90 million, which is less overhead than we had 5 years ago, despite significant inflation across the economy and closing a $5 billion merger. But the cost efficiencies are only part of the story. We intend to create a tech-enabled platform to streamline our operations, differentiate our property management and leasing platforms and expand tenant services to drive new revenue opportunities. We'll have more details to share in the coming quarters. Let me turn it to Kelvin. Kelvin Moses: Thank you, Scott. I'll expand a little bit on the technology initiatives that Scott just mentioned. We're advancing our strategic plan to strengthen our capabilities as an AI-enabled real estate owner with a leading investment management platform designed to meet our clients' needs across geographies and asset types. Operationally, internalizing property management now gives us end-to-end control of our workflows and establishes a consistent foundation to deploy technology across the property. Technology adoption of real estate has historically lagged other industries, and we see advantages to moving now. We're focusing our initial efforts where data and automation can offer more time in the field, and that starts with improving property operations, facilities engineering and accounting. We've partnered with a leading enterprise technology firm to help us drive this shift. Our automation initiatives are building a stronger foundation for our data architecture that will enhance connectivity across internal systems and reduce manual work. Our approach allows us to make measured investments and preserve long-term flexibility as commercial tools evolve. These fresh perspectives from outside of traditional real estate will also help us innovate faster. We see every part of our business as an opportunity. Now moving into the third quarter results. Financial and operating performance was in line with our forecast. We reported FFO as adjusted of $0.46 per share, AFFO of $0.42 per share and year-to-date portfolio same-store growth of 3.8%. Starting with CCRC. Our portfolio delivered another strong quarter, driven by continued pricing power modest expense growth and 150 basis points of year-over-year occupancy gains. Cash NOI increased by 9.4% for the quarter. We remain focused on these key indicators of performance as each flow through to NOI and ultimately, earnings growth for the platform. Our product offering and value proposition continues to resonate with consumers, and we remain well positioned to benefit from healthy demographic trends that support long-term growth. Moving to outpatient medical. Fundamental supporting leasing demand for outpatient continues to be favorable. During the quarter, we executed 1.2 million square feet of leases achieved 3% escalators or above on executions and positive cash re-leasing spreads of 5.4%, with TIs also below historical averages. Year-to-date leasing volumes totaled 3.2 million square feet, and we ended the quarter with total occupancy up 10 basis points at 91%. New leasing comprised of 270,000 square feet with Q3 representing the highest quarter of new leasing starts in the combined company's history. TIs on renewals were only $1.41 per square foot per year and year-to-date leasing commissions were approximately $0.87 per square foot per year. Additionally, we executed another 123,000 square feet of leases in October, and we have another 895,000 square feet under LOI. We are pleased to recognize our property management team whose sector-leading Kingsley client satisfaction results reinforce the consistent strength of our tenant retention and help ensure efficient operations for our clients. Thank you to the entire property management team across the organization for their collective efforts. The combination of consistent operating performance, favorable sector fundamentals and deep tenant relationships positions the portfolio for sustained growth and continued excellence in execution. And turning to Lab. During the quarter, we executed 339,000 square feet of leases, of which 45% were new. And on renewals, we achieved a positive 5% re-leasing spread. Year-to-date leasing volumes totaled 1.1 million square feet, and we ended the quarter with total occupancy of 81%. We continue to see escalators on executed leases between 3% and 3.5%, which supports sustainable long-term growth. Tenant improvement allowances on renewals declined to $1.30 per square foot per year, while corresponding rents rose to $65 per square foot given space condition. For new leases, TIs averaged approximately $15.73 per square foot per year, which when excluding two development leases was approximately $5.50 per square foot per year. In October month-to-date, we executed 22,000 square feet of leases and have an additional 291,000 square feet under LOI. Forward-looking indicators of demand continue to improve. Since Q1, the pipeline has doubled to 1.8 million square feet, about half are evaluating our current unleased availabilities. Each of our core markets is experiencing a similar uptick in demand. We have a healthy mix of discovery stage, clinical stage and commercial face tenants and some incremental demand from tech and AI-based companies. We're encouraged by the strengthening demand profile as we move toward in occupancy bottom and ultimate recovery. The decline in occupancy we experienced in 2025 will flow through to earnings in 2026. Recent leasing, together with the conversion of our active pipeline is expected to contribute to occupancy and earnings starting in late 2026 and thereafter. Moving on to the balance sheet. In August, we issued $500 million of senior unsecured notes at 4.75%. We achieved a spread of 92 basis points with no new issue concession. This execution represents one of the tightest investment-grade REIT 7-year spreads year-to-date. We ended the third quarter at 5.3x net debt to adjusted EBITDA and $2.7 billion of liquidity. We continue to prioritize balance sheet management and disciplined capital allocation to maintain maximum flexibility to pursue strategic investments and fund portfolio growth. Now turning to guidance. We are reaffirming our FFO as adjusted and same-store expectations within our original guidance range. We continue to outperform in CCRC in outpatient medical at or above the high end of our initial segment guidance. In addition, we reduced our interest expense and G&A guidance by a total of $10 million. This reflects better-than-anticipated pricing on our senior notes issuances, technology-enabled productivity gains, and additional synergies related to the merger, as well as timing of certain investments and higher disposition. Moving to sources and uses. Year-to-date, we've completed $158 million of asset sales and loan repayments. We have an additional $204 million of dispositions under a purchase and sale agreement as we take advantage of a strong private market in outpatients. These transactions could close in the fourth quarter or early 2026. And with that, operator, we can move into questions. Operator: [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley. Ronald Kamdem: Just going to the lab leasing pipeline. It sounds like you said it's doubled since the beginning of the year. I was just hoping we could just double-click sort of what's changed? What's the mix of those tenants? And any sort of qualitative trends that you can highlight? Scott Brinker: Yes. It's a broad mix of tenants. It's Scott, from early stage to clinical stage to commercial stage. So the quantum has doubled, but equally important the mix of new and renewal is much more favorable. Year-to-date, it's been a lot of renewals, which is great. But obviously, it takes new leasing to drive occupancy and a good portion of that pipeline now is new leasing. And that's clearly being driven by the improved sentiment in the sector, improved capital raising. There's been a lot of good data in the sector, and that's being rewarded in the capital markets by the FDA and that virtuous cycle is starting to build, but all starting with great data as the science proves out. So we're encouraged. It's roughly 60 days of activity. Obviously, that needs to continue for that pipeline to turn into execution and then to refill the pipeline. But the trajectory, the momentum is very positive. Ronald Kamdem: Great. And then my follow-up is just on thinking about the capital recycling $1 billion out of potentially outpatient medical, just maybe can you talk a little bit more about sort of the buy side in terms of what potential opportunities you think out there, sort of any financial metrics we should be thinking about in terms of what you're going to be going into. Scott Brinker: Yes. Outpatient has been a great business for 20 years. It's one of the few subsectors in all of the real estate that's had positive NOI growth every year for 2 decades. Great financial crisis. Whatever is happening in the economy, it doesn't matter. That sector still has positive growth because it's a need-driven business, and there is a tremendous push to move things to an outpatient setting. That isn't changing. So we love the business. We think we have not only the biggest, but the best platform in the sector, the deepest relationships, which is key given most of the tenants or health systems. So that was one reason we did the merger 2 years ago. We love the outlook for the business. Scale does matter, especially in local markets, which we have. But not all of our portfolio is in concentrated core markets. We still have a few geographic outliers, and this is a great time in the cycle to take advantage of strong demand for the assets and sell some of those assets that are not as strategic for us, but can still draw great pricing from a pretty deep pool of buyers. It's mostly institutional for the types of assets we own, but it's broad-based and it's a deep pool and I think they're attracted to the strong fundamentals. And obviously, as inflation and interest rates have come down, that sector looks a lot more attractive. Maybe the growth of the economy is a little bit more questionable today and outpatient starts to look a lot more attractive in that environment. So I think all of those things are driving the demand. We have roughly $130 million undersigned contract at a really strong cap rate. We're working on a lot. We feel like it's an opportune time to take advantage of that buyer interest, especially in light of where the stock is trading in light of the outpatient development opportunities we have through our relationships and then the potential for opportunities in the Life Science business, but we have a great balance sheet already. We see a lot of advantages to having even more liquidity as we head into 2026, especially if we can get great pricing. Operator: Your next question comes from Nick Yulico with Scotiabank. Nicholas Yulico: In terms of the lab portfolio. I wanted to see if there was any way to get a feel for like where -- if your leased rate is higher than your occupied rates. I know you guys quote that 81% occupancy and lab in the South. You talked about some of the sort of leasing that happened and even in the works is addressing vacancy. So any feel for just like where the lease rate on assets would be versus in-place occupancy? Kelvin Moses: Yes. Nick, this is Kelvin. I would say that our total occupancy today in lab at 81% is largely in line with the occupied rate. We have certain instances where there are tenants that are probably in more space than they need. So the occupancy is a little bit lower physically. But generally speaking, the total occupancy is in line with the physical occupancy. Nicholas Yulico: Okay. And then just second question is on the impairment for the lab JV. Was that -- what triggered that this quarter and then was it also some sort of decision or functioning of how leasing is actually going for those assets? Kelvin Moses: Nick, it's Kelvin again. So typically, you'll see companies take impairments like this when they sell assets. These are assets that we have high confidence in, we'll continue to own long term but specifically for the unconsolidated JV accounting rules, there are rather specific requirements that you have to evaluate on a quarterly basis. Simplistically, if you have carrying values that fall below fair values for more than a temporary period of time you're required to take the charge. And this quarter, we determined that, that was the case. Specifically, the impairments, not cash, it doesn't impact FFO, but we thought it was prudent to do so this quarter given all the facts and circumstances around these ventures. Scott Brinker: Nick, I would just add, Scott and the team have done a great job leasing up the campus. We're at roughly 60% leased, it's 400,000 feet across seven buildings. The buildings that have been redeveloped are for the most part leased. And there's a couple of buildings that are yet to be redeveloped. We are waiting for leases to burn off and, and that work is now underway, and we're confident we'll be able to lease them up once they open. So it's not a matter of leasing. It's a matter of where the rents, where are the cap rates versus when we did that deal 3.5 years ago and obviously marked up the portfolio to the price that we got when we sold it. Operator: Your next question comes from Farrell Granath with Bank of America. Farrell Granath: I was curious if you could outline your kind of risk list and how that compares to the beginning of the year. And specifically, if you can touch on, if tenants have been adding in or are names finally dropping off as you've been seeing a shift in sentiment? Kelvin Moses: Farrell, this is Kelvin. I'll start. Maybe just to give context to our earlier points, we continue to be encouraged by the pipeline that's been building over the course of the last 60-plus days. And our existing tenant base continues to access the capital markets as it's opened back up, and we're seeing a number of folks that perhaps were a little bit more in focus before that are out of focus today given they're extending their cash runways and they're working towards their next clinical milestone. So the exposure in our portfolio has come down, I would say, pretty meaningfully over the last 60 days. So we still have tenants that we are actively monitoring. The quantum of that, I don't have an accurate number to give you, but I think, again, it's directionally has come down since the start of the year. Scott Brinker: Let me add. There's really two parts to your question that are relevant. There's the size of the watch list. That's part one. Kelvin just addressed that. But the equally important part, in our view, is do those companies have a good chance of raising money? Because there's always going to be tenants in the portfolio that have less than 12 months of cash that we're keeping a close eye on. And today, we feel a lot more confident that those companies can raise money. The challenge in the first 9 months of the year had been we have this group of companies that needs to raise capital. It's normal course business, and it was just a very, very difficult environment for them to raise it. So that second half of the question, I think, is equally important and that has improved pretty dramatically in the last 60 days, and obviously, we hope that continues. Farrell Granath: Great. And I also just wanted to touch on -- I've seen some recent headlines about the influx of demand for the AI companies, especially when it comes to lab spaces and those even converting back to an office. I was curious if you could just add a few comments on how that may impact the supply picture? And do you see stock participating in any of that conversion? Scott Brinker: Yes. Well, there's just pure AI tech companies, and certainly, that's helping the supply-demand dynamic in the Bay Area, in particular, but there's also AI-native biotech research, and that's been very much a positive for our portfolio. We've done a fair amount of leasing with companies that would fit that description, particularly in the Bay Area. In the last year, the pipeline includes them as well. And the notion that they only need office space is just not correct. Generally speaking, the 50-50 type mix of wet lab and office continues to hold for those companies as well. So we view it very positively. They're more likely to raise money. The companies that can attach that to their business profile right now. So we're taking advantage of that, but more generally and longer term, the ability of AI to improve the speed, efficiency, accuracy of drug research is pretty exciting in taking drugs from discovery to IND meaning clinical stage trials in 1 year instead of 5 to 7 years. I mean that has the potential to have enormous positive impact on the business. Operator: Your next question comes from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Austin Wurschmidt: Good morning, everybody. Scott, I'm just curious, how should we think about the near-term earnings impact from recycling the outpatient medical proceeds from the strategic initiatives and then just that time line around the earnings ramp from reinvesting those proceeds given development does have kind of a little bit of a longer time line to it? And then maybe a sense of what the opportunistic lab investments you're considering today? Is it development? Is it sort of lease-up opportunities versus more stabilized deals? Scott Brinker: Yes. And the $1 billion that we've referred to, keep in mind, only $200 million of that is under contract. So hopefully, we move forward with the balance. It's really strong pricing. If that proceeds, keep in mind that pricing is going to be significantly better than our implied stock price. So I mean it has the potential, depending on use of proceeds to be immediately accretive. We're also looking at opportunities in outpatient development, as well as life science opportunistic investments that we think have the potential to have returns far in excess of the returns we'd be selling at. In terms of those outpatient sales. So one way or another, we're doing this with an expectation that it's going to create pretty meaningful accretion, whether it's day 1 or day 1 in the combination of year 2, 3. But obviously, that is the expectation and intention here. Austin Wurschmidt: That's helpful. And then can you just give a little bit more detail around the average size of tenants in the pipeline for lab, the lab leasing pipeline and whether you're seeing sort of any larger space requirements in the market today? I know previously, you had talked about kind of 30-plus thousand square feet was the sweet spot, but anything larger out there today? Kelvin Moses: Yes. Austin, it's Kelvin. I think that 30,000 square foot marker is still accurate in terms of the pipeline and the opportunities we're seeing. So with the 1.8 million square foot pipeline. There's a lot more activity from new potential clients that are exploring our assets. Scott Brinker: Austin, let me give you one additional piece of color on the acquisitions that we're looking at in life science as well as outpatient development. You can't really look at those just in isolation either. When you think about our investment model that's very much focused in both businesses on doing things in scale in local markets. There's really an ecosystem benefit as well. Like when we do a new development with a health system, that project is accretive, but it also deepens the relationship with that health system and draws or drives additional leasing with that tenant over time. And that's an important part of the consideration for us. That's obviously true in life science, where we've built a 12 million square foot portfolio that's essentially in 5 submarkets. And we want to continue to go deeper in those markets because we think there's great demand and tenant desire to be in those locations. And the more scale we have there, it's proven to have material advantages in terms of winning leasing deals. Austin Wurschmidt: What's sort of the average yield on the outpatient medical developments that you're evaluating today? Scott Brinker: 7-plus percent. Mostly highly produced and compare and contrast that with selling assets that are in 20, 25 years old that 100 basis points or more inside of that. So pretty compelling. Operator: Your next question comes from Seth Bergey with Citi Group. Seth Bergey: I guess my first question is kind of, of the $1 billion. How do you view that in terms of how much of that should we expect to be life science versus outpatient medical versus share repurchases? And then I guess on top of that, do you have like a target percentage of how much of the business you would like to be outpatient medical, life science and the CCRC? Scott Brinker: We do not have fixed allocations, and we're going to be opportunistic. So we're going to protect our balance sheet. Number one, it's a competitive advantage, gives us a lot of flexibility. And these sales will give us even more flexibility, but it could be any of those three that you mentioned in any combination. So no, we're not going to have a fixed allocation of what we're looking at will be opportunistic. Seth Bergey: Okay. And then just my second one, you talked about the strength of the outpatient medical business. what type of spread are you kind of looking for to compensate you just given -- you touched on the early shoots of the life science recovery, but mentioned that real estate is still expected to lag for a little bit. So just any color you can provide on what accretion kind of spread you're looking for there? Scott Brinker: Yes. Thanks, Seth. The underwritten returns on any life science distress. Obviously, each project is going to be unique in terms of size as well as the lease-up that needs to occur, but we'd be looking for certainly double-digit unlevered IRRs for those types of projects. So that would be the criteria there. For outpatient, I think I already covered it at 7-plus percent. So a nice spread to not only disposition cap rates, but also acquisition cap rates. So yes, that's how we're thinking about spreads or relative returns. And obviously, we have to keep in mind the implied cap rate of our stock price as we think about the assets that we're selling relative to buying back stock in an accretive way. So we're really looking at all three of those alternatives and all three of those metrics in terms of relative returns. Operator: Your next question comes from John Kilichowski with Wells Fargo. William John Kilichowski: Good morning. Maybe if we could start just talking about the Trump administration, we've had -- there's been tariffs on branded therapies, but there's also been a major surge in commitments by multinational pharma companies back in the U.S., especially as it relates to R&D. Can you talk to a lot of that's on the manufacturing side, but are you seeing some of that translate into lab space and then a leasing? Scott Brinker: Well, certainly, the regulatory chaos and uncertainty that existed in the first 6 to 8 months of 2025 had a big impact on sentiment in the sector. Obviously, investors making capital commitments are looking for certainty in terms of the environment that they're investing into, and we just didn't have that for the first half of the year. There's been a lot of positive news coming out of Washington and the FDA in terms of making that process more efficient. Our tenants are taking advantage of that. We've had 10 tenants in the portfolio that have received various forms of fast track or regulatory priority reviews, which is a huge positive coming out of this administration. But overall, I think you've seen a lot less negative headlines coming from D.C. on the biopharma sector, including some positives. Like the agreements with Pfizer and AstraZeneca, and that's been a big part of the change in sentiment. So yes, it's been very positive. William John Kilichowski: Got it. And then I know this may be a little early to ask, but I'll give it a shot. I don't know if we can discuss maybe the building blocks for '26 earnings here, especially as you have talked about a potential near-term bottoming in occupancy. Maybe what's realistic for occupancy gains next year, how you're thinking about pricing power? And then maybe on top of that, the addition of -- we've seen some G&A savings this year with your AI platform. What's the opportunity for that to generate even further savings in the next year? Scott Brinker: Yes. I mean, obviously, we'll wait until February to give guidance. But I mean the basic building blocks or 2/3 of the portfolio are doing really well with outpatient in CCRC, life science, obviously, the occupancy loss and there's a bit more to come, as we've described, we'll bleed into 2026. That will have an impact. We disclosed some purchase options and seller financing that will have an impact refinancing. I mean those are the basic building blocks. There's no new surprises there. But I'll just reiterate the obvious, but obviously, we'll give full guidance in February of '26. Operator: Your next question comes from Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets. Juan Sanabria: Just wanted to see if you could maybe help investors and how you're thinking about how much dilution you're willing to take and how you're going to try to manage that. I mean, I think maybe there's a little bit of a concern that the MOBs, the $1 billion of dispositions will be plowed largely into lab opportunities that may have great growth long term, but maybe weigh on growth near term. So I guess how are you thinking about balancing some of that potential dilution with buybacks and/or other opportunities? Is it the intention that you're going to try to manage earnings somewhat, so to speak, as a result of that? Or how are you thinking about weighing those pros and cons? Scott Brinker: Yes. Well, we're not looking to manage earnings. I heard you say that. That certainly isn't anywhere on the priority list. We're looking to create value. I think when we did the merger 2 years ago, there were concerns, it's turned out to be a huge value creator for the company, not only the synergies, but the recognition of the strength of the outpatient business and the flexibility that, that's providing us right now. So that has turned out to be a huge positive in terms of the capital allocation around that transaction at a time when that sector was pretty out of favor in the public and private markets. Obviously, that dynamic is flipped very much in our favor 2 years later. And we see the building blocks of that dynamic changing for the life science business. It wasn't that long ago when certain investors couldn't get enough of the sector is one of the best performing subsectors in all our real estate for 10 years. Obviously, there's been too much supply. We've had some demand issues because of the regulatory environment. We, as we've described, see a lot of that starting to flip in our favor. It's not going to happen overnight, but we do see a window here to come in at a time when nobody else wants to invest. That's usually a pretty good time to do it. We have the balance sheet to do it, the platform to create value but it might end up being zero. We're very focused on basis and submarket and price and return opportunity, and I can't guarantee that we're going to find anything that meets our thresholds, but I'm optimistic that we will. There's a big opportunity set there, and it's an awfully good time to invest in our view. But again, at the right price and the right submarket. In terms of dilution, it's a $25 billion denominator. So even $1 billion is not a significant number in comparison to the entire company that I don't expect there to be meaningful dilution in any event, even if we plowed the entire thing in the vacant lab buildings, which is not our plan, by the way. Juan Sanabria: And then just a second question. For the balance of the year and maybe into the first quarter, you talked about maybe some slippage in occupancy from some known move-outs and maybe some of the watchlist tenants. Is there a way to put any brackets around how big the further slippage could be before that starts to recover? I think you mentioned in the second half of '26 before the earnings start to benefit from some of that occupancy coming back. But just like what's the risk from here to the trough, I guess, and the components there in? Kelvin Moses: Yes. No, this is Kelvin. I'll start. But again, we continue to be encouraged by the pipeline and the activity that we're seeing, but we recognize that there are still some headwinds within the portfolio that we have to work through we're gaining confidence with these leading indicators and the expirations and nonrenewals that we have for the balance of the year and going into 2026 with our general kind of 75% to 85% retention we'll likely have some occupancy slowdown over the next couple of quarters. And then from there, we'll be able to pick back up again. Occupancy could trend down somewhere in the high 70s before it starts to pick back up again. So I think we're going to be very mindful of the next few quarters in terms of where that goes, but that will be the inflection point that we believe we can start to grow back. Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Richard Anderson with Cantor Fitzgerald. Richard Anderson: So if I could just sort of get pacing or cadence of what you're seeing out of life science. You talked about occupancy bottoming turning on the distressed purchasing engine and then ultimately, pricing power. When do you -- if you had a hazard guess, when do you think those three important points in the life cycle going forward in life science are going to happen? Is the bottoming in early '26 event is the distressed purchasing sort of on top of that and pricing power, maybe 2027 time frame? Is that the way we should all be thinking about it? Scott Brinker: Rich, it's Scott here. And some of it is, I'd call opportunistic. It's not all distress, which is, vacant, empty building. There may be some of that. So that's an important distinction though. Some of it is just opportunistic and therefore a different profile than true distress. But it's not going to play out over a 3-month window. I think this is a 12- to 24-month window as the sector finds a bottom and truly starts the recovery. So it's not like this window is going away. If we do this earnings call in February, we haven't purchased anything yet. That's okay. It's not like the window is going to close next February. It's going to take a little bit of time for the sector to fully recover. I do think the core submarkets are going to come first. I think the big incumbent landlords, and there's only a couple are going to recover faster. Those things, I'm quite confident in. But maybe just to underscore the point that we made here that the sentiment, that the fundamentals are starting to turn in our favor during this conference call alone, we've had one tenant get acquired by Eli Lilly. That's now public. And we had another tenant report very favorable Phase III data, and I think their stock is up 60% or something. So to have -- the point is, we continue to get positive surprises after a couple of years of a lot of negative surprises. We've had a very different change in tone over the last 60 days, and that's continued here into the first 30 minutes of our earnings call. So that's great to see. Richard Anderson: Excellent. I love real-time stuff. And in terms of selling outpatient medical, I still call it MOBs, but that's me. You're not alone in this movement. We're hearing about others that are potentially going to be selling big chunks of MOBs. What would you call -- how would you characterize the buyer pool in terms of where all this might go? Is it going back in the hands of the systems or private equity? How would you describe your audience there? Scott Brinker: All of the above. There are some health systems looking to buy back certain assets. Private equity for sure, it's institutional, high-quality buyers big, sophisticated that are the counterparties at least on the projects we're working on. I can't comment on the others. Operator: Your next question comes from Michael Carroll with RBC Capital Markets. Michael Carroll: I want to circle back on the life science leasing pipeline, the 1.8 million square feet. I mean can you talk about the timing of, of where those transactions are within that pipeline? I mean, how close are they to be signed? And when they sign, how long does it take from them to actually commence? Scott Brinker: Yes, well, the LOI is obviously closest to assign lease execution, and that's approaching 300,000 feet. So the odds of those getting done are obviously pretty high. The phase behind that are what we call proposals. So we're actively negotiating terms, that's roughly half of the pipeline. So those are pretty far along. And then there's tours where you're starting to talk deal terms, they're looking at the space and space planning and all those things, and that's a pretty material part of the balance, and then there's just the inquiries kind of the early stage stuff. So I'd say it's weighted towards kind of the second half of the process between an inquiry and a signed lease. Michael Carroll: And then once they get signed, like how should we think about the commencement timing? I'm assuming, obviously, if it's a new lease or on a development or redevelopment, the commencement is probably, what, 12 months out? And the renewals is pretty immediate. So maybe can you talk about what is the split between new and renewals and the timing of those potential commencements if they do sign? Kelvin Moses: Yes. Michael, it's Kelvin. The -- I'll start with the last question, but the flip between new and renewal is roughly 50-50, I would say. We actually are seeing an uptick in new potential clients that are entering our pipeline as well, a good positive. Generally speaking, from a timing standpoint, the second-generation spaces that we have available to lease are actually in quite good condition. So it's really dependent on the space in terms of how long it will take to get a tenant in there and to commence the lease. You'll see in our executions from this quarter that -- we had limited TIs and continued strength in our leasing volumes. And a lot of that had to do with the quality of the space that we had available to lease. So it's really dependent on the space. We have some spaces that we're getting back that we'll invest capital into and reposition. So some of those could be on that longer 12-month time line that you highlighted, but we could see some commencements happen sooner than that. Operator: Your next question comes from Vikram Malhotra with Mizuho. Vikram Malhotra: I guess -- I guess, Kelvin or Scott, do you mind just sort of stepping back and giving us a little bit more detail or clarity on sort of this whole occupancy bottoming the risk near term into 4Q, but then really how much of the signed but not commenced leases you have to offset some of this? Because I was just really confused, it sounded like you said occupancy and lease is the same. But maybe if you could just break up like leaving aside the development lease up just the core portfolio. How much of a benefit is there from the losses you see versus the signed but not commenced leases? Kelvin Moses: Yes. And maybe, Vik, just to kind of keep it at the higher level at this point. We do see these leading indicators as favorable signs of the execution opportunities that we have within our portfolio and where occupancy is trending over the next few months or a couple of quarters is somewhere in the high 70s. And that will give us a base to build back from. I think that's important to know. And as we talked about with respect to the pipeline, depending on the quality of the space and the execution time line of the team, we might be able to offset some of those near-term headwinds that we know are coming with some execution. So there's a lot of moving parts there, but I think that's generally good guidance. Vikram Malhotra: Sorry, just to clarify on that, I believe, like, if you just look at the core, the 93.2%, there's some slippage from nonrenewal potential tenant, et cetera, based on kind of our conversation but then there is a benefit from signed but not commenced. So can we -- are you able to just give us a little bit more color on how those two things interact just for the same-store pool? Kelvin Moses: Yes. So maybe just for the fourth quarter, we have about 300,000 square feet of expirations and you'll notice in the footnote in the supplemental, we're putting 186,000 square feet of that into redevelopment. We'll largely offset the redev component of that with new commencements and then we'll have a portion of the expirations that will vacate. So that's kind of the Q4 component. Within that, there could be some additional reduction in occupancy as a result of early terminations or proactive downsizing of tenants that we're negotiating space needs and space planning. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit more context. Vikram Malhotra: Yes. I'll follow up. Just the -- occasion, or if you could expand. I mean, I guess, Scott, you mentioned a lot of interesting events during the call in terms of Eli Lilly and fundraising and stuff. But just -- in the process of bottoming, assuming we have more M&A, maybe using the Eli Lilly as an example, like what does that mean for base needs in your mind? Like is the company that's being acquired your tenant? Do they keep the space? Is there a risk of them downsizing or maybe even expanding. Maybe just give us a sense of like what the M&A piece needs for the tenant for your portfolio? Scott Brinker: Yes, I just saw the headline. So we haven't talked to the company yet. Each situation is different. There are times when the big pharma is buying a platform and they're looking to use that team and science to build a new business opportunity, and that tends to lead to demand for real space or more space, and there's times when they're just buying a drug, in which case, they probably don't need the space anymore. And we've had, I don't know, 100 M&As in the course of the company's history. And it's about half and half in terms of the impact. Obviously, it's a credit upgrade either way. That's a fairly long-term lease, if I remember correctly on a campus that's really full, and we've got some growing tenants. So who knows it may end up being a positive in a lot of ways. But I think the important point is that M&A is just such a huge impact on the ecosystem and recycling capital, creating great exits for those existing investors to plow back into new companies. And the M&A year-to-date is something like 3x 2024, and it continues to grow. So that's just a huge benefit to the entire ecosystem that should drive more demand. Operator: Your next question comes from Wes Golladay with Baird. Wesley Golladay: For the potential acquisition opportunities, do you see a bigger opportunity set for the outpatient medical developments or the opportunistic lab properties? Scott Brinker: Yes. Opportunistic lab is exactly that, opportunistic, and those tend to be big projects. So they're chunky. So they can be big numbers or they could be zero. Our outpatient development is pretty normal course business. There's a number of health systems that we're quite close with and development partners that we work with I'd say that's more of a normal course, steady-state business, a couple of hundred million dollars a year that fit our criteria, which basically means pre-leased with good yields and good health systems in core markets. that's going to be less chunky and more just recurring normal course business. Wesley Golladay: Okay. And then on the last quarter, you talked about the potential change for the inpatient only rule. Are you seeing any uptick in leasing demand or development opportunities from this? Scott Brinker: Yes, the comment period closed. We haven't seen the final rule yet. So nothing has happened there in terms of the inpatient-only rule. But I also said at the time that the market forces are moving more of those services to an outpatient setting regardless of what CMS does. The CMS rule would just accelerate that process, but it's happening either way the payers prefer it, the health system usually prefer it. And certainly, the patients prefer it, which is a pretty important voter in the process. So it's happening either way. It's just a matter of how quickly. Operator: Your next question comes from Mike Mueller with JPMorgan. Michael Mueller: I guess this is kind of a hypothetical question. But if your implied cap was 100, 125, 150 basis points lower, do you think you'd still be looking to monetize parts of the outpatient medical portfolio today? Scott Brinker: The asset sales, we're getting out of noncore markets or noncore health system relationships at great pricing. Yes, we're also looking at some recaps today of core real estate where we're going to retain a meaningful economic interest, maintain the relationship, maintain the footprint, those we would not do if the stock price was more favorable. Michael Mueller: Got it. And I guess my second question, I think you answered part of it. I was going to ask the specific attributes of what you're specifically looking to sell. It sounds like it's -- what age and secondary markets or noncore markets? Scott Brinker: It's mostly market profile. When you look at our outpatient footprint, although it's a national portfolio, we've got 10 to 12 markets that comprise 2/3 or more of our footprint. We love those markets. We have great health system relationships. Critical mass in a growing demographic market that we find attractive. We're looking to do more in those areas. Dallas is an example, Denver, Nashville, other examples you see us do development there as well. So the profile of what we're selling tends to be in markets where we don't have that big critical mass or maybe we don't have the strongest health system relationship. Those tend to be the, the assets that we're looking to monetize and it's a good time in the cycle to do that. Operator: Your next question comes from Michael Stroyeck with Green Street. Michael Stroyeck: I appreciate that the step down in retention and outpatient was largely due to the CommonSpirit leases no longer being included. What have retention rates in recent quarters been if you do back out CommonSpirit. And has there been any sort of decline in retention as the company has pushed pricing maybe a bit harder relative to the sector's history? Scott Brinker: Michael, no, we've been in the 75% to 85% range across the portfolio. We did have a couple of big nonrenewals this quarter that we've known were coming for a long time, just legacy Healthpeak assets that we've owned for years and years and years. But the leasing has been really phenomenal. So like step back for a minute and look at the actual leasing volume we've had among our highest quarters in the history of the combined companies and the economics on the leasing are extremely attractive. We're getting better escalators, renewal spreads that are as strong as we've ever had, very little TI, the term of the leases is long. So same-store investors like it. It's an easy number. It's one number. It's not the most important number. The economics in the cash flow are really driven by the things I just mentioned. And those numbers continue to be very, very favorable. So Mark and the team are really doing a great job on leasing, and we expect that to continue given the fundamentals. Michael Stroyeck: Got it. Understood. Has there been any sort of spread in pricing power between, call it, your health system and nonhealth system tenants? Scott Brinker: There's definitely a distribution in terms of re-leasing spreads and some are 10-plus percent. Others are slightly negative. I'd say it's less focused on whether it's a health system or not and more focused on the quality of the building, the uses that are inside that space that tends to drive that dynamic more than whether it's a health system tenant or not. Operator: Your next question comes from Jon Petersen with Jefferies. Jonathan Petersen: Maybe just one for the sake of time here. So since we're talking about selling properties, I know at times in the past, you suggested that the CCRC portfolio might be something that could be sold at some point. So I'm just curious for an update on how you're thinking about that portfolio as a long-term hold on your balance sheet. Scott Brinker: Yes. We're happy we own it. We're happy we own 100% of it rather than 49% of it. LCS has done an incredible job. We've got a dedicated team, it's worked side-by-side with them to drive value. They're doing an incredible job. Obviously, the fundamentals are good. We have to put some money into the buildings that should pay dividends for years to come. Those buildings look great. Residents demand them. So we've never seen growth out of that business like we have over the last 6 years, even including the downturn. Our compounded growth rates around 9%, including the downturn. I'll just repeat that. It's an incredible performance by that portfolio that we think will continue. So yes, we're happy to hold it for the foreseeable future. Operator: This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Scott Brinker for any closing remarks. Scott Brinker: Thanks for your time today, everybody. Hope you have a great earnings season and hope to see you soon. Take care. Operator: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Johan Andersson: Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the presentation of Saab's Q3 Report for 2025. My name is Johan Andersson, and I'm honored to have been appointed Head of Investor Relations here at Saab. With me here in Stockholm, I have our CEO, Micael Johansson; and Anna Wijkander, our CFO. Anna and Micael will present the report, and thereafter, we will start the Q&A session. And you can either ask your questions over the phone or you can enter them in the web interface, and I will read them out loud here in Stockholm. So with that quick intro, I will hand over to our CEO, Micael. Micael Johansson: Thank you so much, Johan, and thank you all for joining us this morning for the quarterly 3 report and the first 9 months. I want to welcome Johan as well as Head of Investor Relationship. So you're most welcome to the company. And I also want to thank Merton Kaplan for an excellent job during so many quarters and back old -- looking backwards. And then I wish him luck, of course, in his continued journey within Saab. Before I go into the highlights of this quarter, I just want to say a few words about the day we had Wednesday in Linköping, where we the had honor of receiving President Zelensky and his delegation and also our Prime Minister and his delegation to host them for this important statement and letter of intent that they signed in the direction of creating a strong air force in Ukraine going forward. This was, of course, a unique day and it was an important statement which we have been waiting for to now continue our journey in exploring scenarios and planning for how an establishment and delivery so quite a few aircraft will look like in Ukraine. And it also adds to our assessment of investments that we need to do looking into that. With all due respect, I mean, there's no contract yet. Still a lot of work to do. You heard the President Zelensky and also Prime Minister Kristersson talking about sort of the financing solution and what needs to be established there. And then, of course, there are a couple of other things. But we will start doing our work to sort of support this going forward. And it was great to see our employees in Linköping spontaneously applauding and sharing when President Zelensky stepped out of the car, and we're so much committed as a company to support Ukraine going forward. That was a unique and fantastic day. And now we will work hard to sort of make this happen as well, of course. So with that, I just want to go into a few highlights then of the quarter. It has been a strong demand in the market. We still have lots of geopolitical tensions, of course, around us and strong demand from many countries in all avenues of our portfolio and we develop contracts really well. We had a strong quarter when it comes to order intake, as we've seen. But it's also timing. It's sort of on the same level as the quarter last year. But in October, only after the closing of this quarter, we have SEK 16 billion in order intake. So we're looking toward a really strong year when it comes to contracts as well. We have a number of campaigns apart for our product sort of demand in the market that we are running, of course, both when it comes to the Gripen side, and we'll come back to that; and also GlobalEye, where a number of countries have a huge interest in our system. As you know, we've been selected by France, and now we're just waiting to sort of -- them to sign the contract in that country as quickly as possible. And then we have interest actually from NATO and from Germany and from Denmark, and a number of other countries is looking into our GlobalEye system. So there is still a need to continue to invest in capacity, which we're doing in a diligent way, I think. And looking at the execution this quarter, which has been solid in sort of a normally weaker quarter, but it's really been stronger this quarter. And as you've seen, I mean, the first 9 months is now an organic growth of 21%. So we've done really well also adding the third quarter to the first two ones here. And we will continue to look at our development of our profitability, which has also been good. But we'll also never trade off versus sort of investing in capacity to sort of meet the demand in the market, of course, but also being relevant when it comes to new technologies that we have to invest in going forward. All in all, it's been a strong quarter, and we have, as you've seen now, upgrading the outlook for '25. I will come back to that in the end. But we're now sort of raising our guidelines on top line to 20% to 24% from 16% to 20%. So back to the numbers. As I said, almost SEK 21 billion in order intake, a good increase in the medium-sized story. It looks a bit different between the quarters. And I think, as I said, we added SEK 16 billion only in October, which we have press released. So it looks really good going forward as well. We have a book-to-bill of 1.3x and a very strong organic growth in this quarter, the strongest quarter we've ever had on top line and also in absolute numbers when it comes to EBIT. So the margin is now 8.7% in the quarter but 9.3% looking at the first 9 months. Cash flow is on the same level. If you look at the first 9 months, sort of minus SEK 1 billion roughly. We have still the same view as last year. We will generate a positive cash flow. We have a number sort of important payments coming in now during the fourth quarter. So I'm confident that we will meet our guidelines on that as well. A few statements about the different business areas as usual. Yes, of course, a big interest in the Gripen conversion now. We have contracted Thailand during the quarter, the first 4. And they are looking into further contracts as well, of course. The batch 2 and batch 3 of their contract is being discussed already. And then, of course, we have been selected by Colombia and we are negotiating a contract there. We have no contract yet but we are moving ahead in a good pace in Colombia. And then, of course, the interest now from Ukraine is something we will sort of take into account and start planning for, as I mentioned. We have a good strong quarter from Aeronautics. They have gone 34% up sort of compared to the quarter last year. So they had really good project execution in the Gripen program mainly. But still, the profitability level is affected by ramp-up costs that we have mainly in the T-7, the trainer aircraft in the U.S. in West Lafayette. So that is still sort of a burden to Aeronautics, but they're moving in the right direction definitely. Dynamics, again, good growth. A quarter that is normally quite weak for Dynamics has been quite strong actually. If you look at the first 9 months of Dynamics, they have grown 34% or something, maybe even 36%, if I remember correctly now. It's an extremely strong year for Dynamics. They have had a number of medium-sized orders but also a large one from the Czech Republic when it comes to the medium, short-range air defense system RBS 70. So there is still a big demand in the market and we are investing heavily, as you know, to increase capacity in this area. I think we have only in the Karlskoga sort of 40 projects ongoing to expand everything and building factories in the U.S. and in India, as you know. And they have a huge backlog now of almost SEK 90 billion as we speak. Surveillance, also a very interesting portfolio. I said that the campaigns for the GlobalEye are a number of them now. So we are intensifying that, of course. I hope that we will see this GlobalEye system, which is the state-of-the-art system, most modern one, taking a bigger position also within the Alliance with multiple countries going for GlobalEye. So that's what we're working. And the first one that we were selected upon is, of course, France that you know all about. So there is not only on the GlobalEye side, but the surface side, the surface sensors, the sensor side of Surveillance is really strong and getting more and more contracts. And they deliver quite well as well, growing 8%. And honestly, the quarter 3 of Surveillance is the strongest ever top line-wise. So they are doing well also when it comes to project execution, and they have a huge potential going forward, I would say. I also want to mention that we are divesting TransponderTech, which is communication and automatic identification system type of entity, as we have also already press released. And we will close that deal now in quarter 4. Also a very big backlog on the Surveillance side, as you can see, SEK 55 billion. Saab Kockums also have a big interest in many segments. We're working campaigns now on the submarine side with Poland, and that we're putting a lot of effort into, of course. And it makes lots of sense to have Sweden and Poland work together to protect the Baltic Sea. But also on the surface side, we have the Swedish corvette/frigate program coming out, which is called Luleå class, which we are also seeing as a big potential going forward. But there are many other export contracts where we are involved. And we have also now invested but also got the contract to look to design and test a large underwater unmanned vehicle with the Swedish Navy, which is great to see that we're moving in that direction. Because also on the Navy side, it's not only in the air you will see collaborative combat entities working with manned entities. That will also happen on the surface and subsurface going forward. We also got a task, which is a fantastic honor, to lead the project within NATO when it comes to underwater battlespace project, connecting and creating interoperability between manned and unmanned systems. So that, we look forward to execute. And the growth is really good, 17% year-on-year when it comes to the quarter, and they are really moving in the right direction. And they have a substantial backlog. I need to mention, of course, that after the quarter in October, we got an additional contract, as you've seen, on the submarine side for SEK 9.6 billion, adding to the backlog now going forward. And then finally, when it comes to our business area, Combitech. We have, of course, a very well moving forward Combitech, our technical consultant entity. They are growing also rapidly year-on-year 17%. It's all about sort of employing new people, of course, and getting utilization into the operations that create these numbers. And I think we've employed 200 people up now only in this quarter from the Combitech side, and that adds to the growth, of course. We're doing well as a consulting company. We're absolutely in the right areas, in the right niches right now, cybersecurity, critical infrastructure, critical communication, creating security operation centers for many type of industries and also from the -- in the public side, the authorities. And everything connected to total defense in terms of resilience is something that sort of generates business now for Combitech going forward. So they had a good quarter as well, definitely, and they're growing quite a lot over the year as well. So I just want to say a few words about something that's been discussed every day, every week in terms of what's happening in Ukraine when it comes to drones and what kind of drone capability do we need going forward and counter-drone capability. And also the EU Commission have launched projects now during the last few weeks, which is sort of a drone wall, making sure that we have resilience versus big drone capabilities coming from the East. And I just want to mention that this is something we really are investing in, and we already have solutions in place. We don't talk so much about this, but we have already used these solutions in NATO missions in Poland. We call one system -- the way we approach this, I say, is to make sure that we are quite agnostic when it comes to what effectors or interceptors do we use. We can use everything from Bushmaster Gun to an electronic warfare type of effectors to nets or kamikaze drones or actually RBS 70, and we are now investing in a new missiles that you've heard about called Nimbrix, which is in a segment between the guns and the RBS 70. So that's sort of agnostic. We can sort of integrate the system that would manage different types of threats. And the Loke system is sort of a brand name of the system includes, of course, a sensor capability with the Giraffe 1X, which is excellent and the most state-of-the-art radar, that you'll find everything from micro drones to larger drones and cope with many threats at the same time, a commander control system, which is really compact and then an interceptor vehicle that would have sort of the chosen effector on it. That -- a counter UAS system already established in Sweden and used in NATO missions. The loitering munition side or actually having a known swarm technology capability. We have already released that we have something that is self-organized in terms of software and using AI to have swarm of drones during different types of missions. And I think we are focusing, among other things on not only surveillance but also loitering munition. That is important because of how you would manage an aggressor going forward, not only with support weapons that called Gustav and anti-tank weapons, but you can also use drones to accomplish part of the mission and work together with support missions. So we are involved in this area and ramping up our capabilities, and we already have existing systems. A couple of highlights from the sustainability area, a very important area to us. We have this quarter established a biogas facility in our site, which is the Barracuda entity in the Gamleby, which is doing camouflage and signature management. which reduces our energy dependence on fossil fuel, of course, dramatically. And if you compare year-to-year in the first 9 months to last year, we have reduced 4% on the CO2 emissions. And we are on a good track now to support our SBTi targets, where we have said we will be 42% down 2030. And if you look at the base year compared to where we are now, we are 33% down. We have a good progress on operational health and safety. We really make sure that we have a safe operational environment within the company, and we measure this all the time. And we must report every incident to mitigate everything that could happen. And another thing is, of course, diversity and inclusion. We are happy to see that we are now moving up when it comes to our female employees in the company, now at 27%. That is a very good step, and we want to go further also, of course, when it comes to female managers. But we are moving in the right direction. And since we have employed 2,700 people net up during the first 9 months, 34% of that employment is actually female. So we're going in the right direction. I'm really happy to see this. So last but not least, I already said that at my first slide that we have -- because of the good progress this year, the first 9 months, organic growth of 21% and also good visibility, of course, into the backlog which is now over SEK 200 billion, and we know what we need to deliver the remaining part of the year, we have now said that we will take this step from 16% to 20% growth rate to 20% to 24% instead. So that's our new guidance. And we still retain the other portion, saying that EBIT will grow more than the organic sales growth. And we will generate a positive cash flow and we are confident doing that going forward. I just want to thank all our employees for doing a fantastic job during the first 9 months and supporting this growth and the commitment to creating societies and having people in societies safe is a strong sort of purpose of the company, which is supported by our employees. I'm really pleased to see that. With that, I think if I have not forgotten anything, I will hand over to Anna, our CFO. Anna Wijkander: Thank you, Micael, and good morning, everyone. Yes, as you have heard, we are delivering a strong third quarter especially from a sales growth and EBIT growth perspective. So I think now it's time to dig more into the financial numbers. And we start with the order backlog. We left the third quarter with a strong backlog, increasing it to SEK 202 billion. In particular, it was the medium-sized orders that increased during this quarter. They more than doubled actually this quarter. So we booked SEK 21 billion. And we have, since the quarter closed -- we booked additional SEK 16 billion in order intake. So the start of Q4 looks promising. 73% of our orders in the backlog are international, and its Dynamics and Surveillance that is the majority of the order backlog, 71%. If you look at to the left in the graph, you can also see that we are increasing our deliveries from the backlog for the fourth quarter with 35% compared to the last year. And we can also see that we're increasing the deliveries from backlog the year 1 and 2, that is '26 and '27 compared to last year. So that really shows that we have -- we are in a growth journey and that we are also expanding our production capacity to deliver on our commitments. Let's turn into some more comments on the drivers of our sales and profitability then. And yes, as you have heard us saying, this was our highest sales and EBIT ever in a third quarter. And we have strong sales growth, 17% reported or 18% organic for the group. And the EBIT grew 16% in the quarter. What's also good to see is that the gross margin is increasing in all business areas in the quarter due to high project activities. And looking in then to more in each business area, Aeronautics, 34% growth this quarter, driven very much from the Gripen deliveries and high activities in the business areas. Also, we see improvements in the commercial business in the sales growth. However, the EBIT is still impacted by the startup costs that we have in the T-7 factory as well as a bit higher marketing cost for all the Gripen campaigns, and also we're starting to do amortization on a capitalized R&D that's impacting the EBIT. Dynamics, again, continued the strong growth from Q2. It grow 12% this quarter and also delivered a higher EBIT margin, 19.3% in the quarter. And that is a result also of project execution, several deliveries, a mix situation. You know in Dynamics, we had a lot of delivery projects. And in this quarter, lots of deliveries from ground combat that is impacting the margin in a positive way. Also, Surveillance grew 8% in the quarter. Good project execution and EBIT level at the same level almost as last year. Here, it's very much deliveries from also the Giraffe 1X radar production that's impacting in a positive way, but also good project execution in the business area. However, on Surveillance, we can mention that there are still negative impact from the Civil business impacting their margins. Kockums, also a high activity level and a very significant growth in their EBIT margin year-over-year. That is very much driven this quarter from both high project execution and, in particular, in their export business. To mention also Combitech, they grow 17% in the quarter. High utilization, high activity, and as we heard, that they are in -- working very much in an area which is growing as well. And their EBIT margin was on par with their EBIT margin last year if we deduct the divestment that we made in the Norwegian operation last year. And from a group perspective, mentioning also that on a corporate level, we have some corporate costs that are SEK 200 million approximately higher this quarter, and that is something that we expect to continue. It was driven very much of these share-based incentive program but also somewhat higher costs for IT and security as we're growing the company. The financial summary then. I think I mentioned all items above EBIT. So I think focus more here on the financial net that turned negative this quarter. And the reason for that is mainly because of the revaluation of shares in a financial investment of around SEK 50 million that impacted the financial net, and we had also a lower result from currency hedges related to the tender portfolio if we compare it to last year. This revaluation that I talked about impacting also the tax rate this year. So compared to last year, it's a bit higher. And then all in all, the group net income is in line with last year and as well as the EPS. Let's zoom out then to 9 months and look how it looks for us after 9 months has passed. On a group level, the sales increased 20% or organic 21% related to effect on currencies. All our business areas have double-digit growth year-to-date. So that's very positive to see. Also our gross margin is improving 70 basis points, and it's all business areas that are contributing to this gross margin increase, but in particular, its Dynamics and Surveillance where we see the improvements. So after 9 months, our EBIT is up 30% and we delivered a margin of 9.3%. Year-to-date, the financial net is positive. And here, it's supported by the appreciation from currency hedges related to our tender portfolio. And following that, we also have a lower tax rate decrease due to lower share of taxable income from foreign operations. So net income and EPS improvement driven by the EBIT growth and also the improvement then in the financial net. Next, our cash flow. I think we can say that we have a strong cash flow from operations despite increased working capital that is driven by our business growth. After 9 months, we have generated SEK 7.3 billion in cash from operations. That's SEK 1.9 billion more than last year. Also in line with our sales growth, we are building working capital, and we're doing that in line roughly with the same amount as we did last year. So if you look at the operational cash flow and deduct the change in working capital, we actually have a positive cash flow of SEK 3.9 billion after 9 months. But as you know, we need to do our investments. That's something that we have communicated earlier in the Capital Markets Day and continue to communicate. It's important for our growth. And we have increased our investments. SEK 4.9 billion is the amount now. That's SEK 1.7 billion more than last year. And so we end up with a negative cash flow year-to-date. But we expect the operational cash flow to be positive this year since we are expecting several large customer payments by the end of the year. Finally, on this slide, I just want to mention also that it's very positive to see that we are improving our return on capital employed, it's now almost 15%, and that's driven both by our profitability but also by increased return on capital turnover. Finally, our balance sheet. We have a strong financial position and a solid balance sheet. Our net debt-to-EBITDA is on a healthy level, 0.1x. This quarter, we have a net debt of SEK 700 million, and that was mainly due to that we have a new -- the lease of our newly opened office in Solna here in Sweden, and that's impacting around SEK 1.3 billion in the third quarter. We have cash and liquid investments of SEK 12.2 billion. And during the quarter, we had issued total bonds of SEK 2 billion additionally. Additional to that, we have an unutilized revolving credit of SEK 6 billion. So all in all, that puts us in a strong position to capitalize on future growth opportunities both through increased investments and also enable us to do potential acquisitions. So in summary, I think a strong quarter both in sales and EBIT across the business. The group has a solid financial position and we have a strong order backlog to deliver on. So with that, I hand over to you, Johan, to open the Q&A. Johan Andersson: Thank you very much, Anna and Micael, for a great presentation. So let's start the Q&A session. And we will start with the questions from the phone conference. [Operator Instructions] So please, operator, do we have any questions from the telephone conference? Operator: [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Daniel Djurberg with Handelsbanken. Daniel Djurberg: Then I will go to Aeronautics, I think. You had a good quarter, nice growth. A little bit lower EBIT margin versus last year's quarter, [ 30 basis point ] I believe. But it's still the -- as you mentioned, the T-7A program lingering. Can you both give us an update on this in terms of both the cost or margin impact and also how -- for how long we should expect this to linger and if it will increase in size or the opposite. Micael Johansson: Thank you. No, I think when you look at Aeronautics, I would say that a normal Aeronautics with a reasonable scale of Gripen contracts and what have you should be sort of in -- I don't guide, but we talked about this before, sort of high single-digit numbers. So the effect is still there from T-7, absolutely. We've turned around the commercial business in a good way. We're not sort of adding lots of profitability really yet, but it's still okay. So I would say still a couple of years, it don't -- it won't go in the wrong direction, it will go in the right direction. But before it's actually a good addition to our Aeronautics business, it will be sort of 3 years ahead from now, roughly, I would say. But it will go in the right direction over time, of course. Operator: The next question comes from Ian Douglas-Pennant with UBS. Ian Douglas-Pennant: So I've got several questions but I'll limit myself to one on Gripen, please. Could you expand on the comments that we've read, I think, in the press this morning that you could expand Gripen capacity very rapidly if required? I wonder if you can just educate us on this group as to what we said there and how quickly that could happen. And in order for that to happen, do you need to see deposits coming in before you consider making those investments? Or would you consider investing elsewhere? Micael Johansson: Well, as I've said, I mean, we still need sort of set a scenario, that is, if we now get sort of the financing in place, if the politicians sort that and you get support refinancing Ukraine to go into contract on the Gripen E and expanding the production will be important. The way I see it is that, and I've said that this morning that right now, we are looking at expanding production with investments that we've taken to somewhere between 20 and 30 aircraft a year. And of course, as you know, with the numbers that was stated in the Wednesday's meetings, that sort of would add a lot to that. So that we're looking into that now, how quickly can we take another step because this investment we're talking about is sort of look to be implemented sort of next year and the year after that, roughly get to that level, and then you can take another step, of course. It will be adding more to the Linköping production lines if we do that, and that's sort of a few years ahead. But it would also mean that we would sort of expand our hub in Brazil. And we are initiating, as we speak, other sort of partnership discussions in countries that would have an interest for the Gripen, of course. So this will mean that we would need another hub beyond sort of the hub we have in Brazil and expanding in Linköping as well. Well, we said that, okay, if Ukraine push the button, we would deliver the first one in 3 years' time, and that is sort of what we commit to. And then it depends on what is the stretch of the delivery schedule with Ukraine and when we have to have this capacity in place. Normally, it takes like 2 to 3 years to get sort of improved capacity in place, I would say. That's sort of the view I have on how quickly we can do this. But there is absolutely an opportunity to implement this. Will we -- yes, I would like to see sort of a more solidified financing solution in place before we take the big step to start sort of adding huge sort of investment to this. But since we're already moving in the investment direction, we can add a little bit more maybe at risk to actually make sure that we keep the lead times. That's the way I see it without quantifying exactly. Operator: The next question comes from Aymeric Poulain with Kepler Cheuvreux. Aymeric Poulain: Clearly, the demand outlook is great. And it's the third year you're going to be growing at 20% or 25%. So the question is, do you expect that rate to be maintained? Or are the supply chain challenges, especially regarding the staffing or specific material that are starting to emerge given the very strong demand situation? Micael Johansson: Well, it's a bit sort of premature to sort of talk about sort of the next years beyond, I would say, this year right now. You know we've committed to a midterm target of 18% CAGR over the time period of '23 to '27. We will come back and refresh -- revisit that, not refresh it, in the year report quarter, I would say, in February next year. And then we will have a new view from our perspective on how quickly we can continue to grow. So that's where we are right now. If you look at what is the pain points, what's the limiting factors to grow, you are touching upon the right things. We need to bring with us the supply chain and maybe sometimes invest in supply chain. But they have to invest also. To find a whole ecosystem supporting us is absolutely necessary. And there are a few pain points there but manageable, I would say, going forward. And then I am assuming long term, of course, that we will resolve the rare earth elements discussions we have with China and also start to invest to have sovereign capacity on that side. But then we're talking years ahead because that will affect every industry, I would say, if that is not sorted. But yes, that's the way I see it. Johan Andersson: Excellent. Thank you. Let's take a couple of quick ones from the web. One is, what's the difference between Gripen and E and F? And when can we see the first Gripen F? Micael Johansson: Okay. Yes. We are maybe a bit of nerds using all these acronyms. But as you know, we have the Charlie, Delta version in operations right now. And yes, we have delivered an Echo version as well. The C is -- the E is a single-seat version. The F is a dual-seat version. And we will deliver this dual-seat version to Brazil in '27. So that's where the first aircraft is being manufactured right now. This has been a design that's been done together with the Brazilian industry and Brazil and that is in line with the plan that we have. Sweden has not contracted any dual-seat versions of the Gripen F. I hope I was not too complicated here. It's simple, actually. Single seated version, dual-seated version. Johan Andersson: I think it was pretty clear. Another one. You talked a lot about your drone capabilities in your strategy there. How much are you doing and developing by yourself? And how are you looking and doing things with partners? How do you think strategically there what's important? Micael Johansson: That's a really good question. I think from a software-defined perspective, we're doing everything ourselves and then, of course, when it comes to sensors and effectors, we have also things in-house. Then we are looking into how can you scale something quickly either yourself, lots of 3D printing or storing, parts that you can actually assemble quickly and how many partners do we need there. So I think on that side, when it comes to platforms, there will be more partnerships. But it's a bit different depending on what kind of drone you're talking about, of course. Johan Andersson: Good. Excellent. And we had a quick one for Anna. Do you expect your backlog to continue to increase going forward? Anna Wijkander: With our growth that we're foreseeing, I think that is something that we can assume that today's backlog will increase going forward. Yes. Operator: The next question from the phone comes from Björn Enarson with Danske Bank. Björn Enarson: Yes. On Dynamics and the super solid backlog and -- but the mix is very, very important. Can you give us some color on how you look upon the mix situation in the backlog? As profitability can swing quite a lot. We have seen that over the years depending on what Dynamics you have. Micael Johansson: In the Dynamics area, you mean. Björn Enarson: Exactly. Micael Johansson: Well, I think I won't go into exact details on the mix as such, but of course, it's quite dominated today by support weapons and missiles. Both have a substantial backlog in that and both will add good profitability numbers. I will sort of -- we have always talked about what's the ambition level in terms of sustained EBIT level on Dynamics side. And I've always said that depending exactly on the question you asked, the mix between the different portfolio entities in Dynamics, but it should be always sort of in the mid-double digit numbers, around 15%. Now we've had good quarters now. So we are above that. And of course, that's very nice to see. But it will always be on that level, so to say. But I won't go into exactly a part of the SEK 87 billion, what's what there. But the main parts are absolutely support weapons and missile capability, and you can probably sort of draw that conclusion from contracts that we have received. Anna Wijkander: And it varies, of course, between different contracts, also within the same business unit within a Dynamics. So it differs. So that could also impact. But I think it's a good, as you say, Micael, in the mid-teens mid-15s, what you say... Micael Johansson: Mid-double digit numbers, the number between 10 and 20, not sort of between 10 and 100. Operator: The next question from the phone comes from Carlos Iranzo Peris with Bank of America. Carlos Peris: I just want to ask on the GlobalEye because it looks that it's having a strong commercial momentum recently. So can you help us to understand how big the GlobalEye opportunities could be for you midterm? Micael Johansson: Well, I mean, this is one of the mega deals that always will take sort of a Prime Minister or a Defense Minister to decide in the end. But I mean, we have campaigns ongoing. As you know, France have selected and they will start with 2. We have 3 in production for Sweden. There is an interest for a number of aircraft when it comes to Germany and NATO. We have a couple of interest also in the Middle East. So it adds up to a number of platforms with a strong potential. But I would hesitate to sort of bring too much of mega deals into our growth. And this is not part of our growth this year or sort of a big portion of our business plan going forward. We look upon mega deals in a careful way. They are adding substantially when they happen. But it has to be continuous growth anyway. So I just want to say that, yes, there are many platforms that could come into play, but I wouldn't sort of jump into conclusions because they are megadeals campaigns. And political decisions will also be involved in that. But I look very positively upon sort of the future of GlobalEye. That's what I can say. And I mentioned a few countries now that have an interest. Operator: The next question comes from Tom Guinchard with Pareto. Tom Guinchard: A question on the risk guidance here. Any changes in delivery pace across the different business areas? Or what's changed since your last guidance? If you could break that down, please. Micael Johansson: Well, I think everyone is actually picking up nicely when it comes to expediting deliveries and pushing sort of things from the backlog into sales. And also some of it is connected to that we get our capacities coming into place. And also seeing, yes, that we have added 2,700 people to the company net up this year adds lots of push into this. And we are sort of optimizing our way of working and automating production. So it's a number of things that comes together that sort of had lacked visibility in the beginning of the year. But now we are more confident that we have actually succeeded in many things that we put ourselves forward to do. So it's actually in all areas. And of course, I mean, Dynamics is growing dramatically. You see 36% growth over the first 9 months. So it's an engine in this. But also the other business areas are growing, and there's lots of potential in Surveillance, and Aeronautics have now really stepped up in terms of growth. So I wouldn't sort of point something specific, but you can see from the numbers 9 months now what's driving this and what comes into play first. Operator: The next question comes from Sasha Tusa with Agency Partners. Sash Tusa: It's Sash Tusa here. I've got a couple of questions. First is just to R&D. On a 9-month basis, it's doubled over the last 4 years. Going forward, if you have investments, particularly in counter-UAS, do you expect continued growth in R&D? Or is there just going to be a shift in the mix probably towards the counter-UAS area and away from other areas? I wonder if you could just give some color on how the R&D is expected to develop. Micael Johansson: No. What I can say is I want to grow the R&D investments as much as I can but still keeping to the guidelines that we have, the trade-off between sort of here and now, top line growth, increasing our profitability but still having the strength to grow our investments in R&D. And we need to do that when it comes to AI, autonomous systems in all domains and also, of course, in the way we develop software. We have established a common tech organization that is pushing sort of software out on the business unit in a different way with sort of solidified architectures and stuff. So we need to continue to invest, make no mistake. So if we continue to grow, it will not only be a mix and shift in that, so to say. We have to do a number of things going forward in all core areas both when it comes to sort of autonomous systems in the air, which we call collaborative combat aircraft, the unmanned underwater vehicles. We have, as you know, a collaboration with General Atomics to do an autonomous sort of airborne early warning capability. So there are a number of things that we have to do and which I look forward to do. So it will continue to grow. But I won't quantify it how much. It is always this trade-off between the different pieces I mentioned. Anna Wijkander: Just maybe I can add. We have also some capitalized R&D that we have started to depreciate now that is also impacting. And that's something positive because we are delivering in our projects and, therefore, we can -- we depreciated the capitalized R&D. So that's also going to increase during the year. Operator: Excellent. Thank you. The next question -- sorry, did you have a follow-up there? Sash Tusa: Yes, please. That's helpful. Yes, I just wondered if you could elaborate on the Luleå frigate program, which seems to be in a degree of flux. You clearly said that it's now more of a frigate than a corvette. Corvette was probably a bit of a euphemism anyway. But could you just give us some color on where that program is? And in particular, the reported bid by France to export frigates directly to Sweden, possibly as part of the offset for the GlobalEye program, how do you see that developing? Micael Johansson: I think it's a question you should ask to Swedish customer mainly. And I want to underline it's probably -- I mean, it's probably corvette, of course. I mean, maybe it's my ignorance. But listen, we have put forward a very strong offer together with Babcock, our main partner here. And I hope that, that will prevail and be the selected thing. Yes, the Swedish customer has opened up, as I know, for other sort of proposals. And it's up to them now to select. But I still think we and Babcock have the strongest proposal. Now it's up to the Swedish Navy, Swedish FMV, the defense material organization to make a selection. And exactly when that is going to be done, I'm not sure. But time is of essence, of course, since they want the frigates to be operational sort of '29, '30 something. Operator: The next question comes from Marie-Ange Riggio with Morgan Stanley. Marie-Ange Riggio: The question that I have is on your current capacity expansion. Clearly, we see that 25 is quite a record level for you. you announced some capacity expansion at your last CMD mainly for Dynamics and Surveillance. I'm just wondering, given the level of backlog that you have today and the demand that you are seeing in the coming years, are you already increasing further the capacity compared to the guidance or like compared to the indication that you gave at your CMD? Or you are still expecting basically the orders before like moving forward from those targets? Micael Johansson: I would say for the year, we are in line with what we talked about at the CMD. It's not sort of a walk in the park to get everything executed. So that is really sort of a high ambition to invest all that money into capacity increases that we talked about. And we're looking into what do we need to do next year, of course. And we'll come back to that next year. But we will continue to invest in capacity increases, obviously, because of the demand in the market. But what are we doing right now is supporting what we talked about in the support area going from sort of below 100,000 units to somewhere in between 400,000 and 500,000 units when we get all the capacity in play. And I look forward to getting the factory in Grayling, Michigan up and running in the end of next year and also then India, of course, to add to this. So we'll come back on that, but we will see more -- again, we stick to our guidelines. But we will not compromise, making sure that we have the capacity to support the demand in the market and not compromise to make sure that we invest in the right technologies to be relevant all the years to come. And this is the sort of the puzzle that we work with all the time to make that sort of really efficient going forward. But we will need more capacity investments, absolutely. But we'll keep to the CMD statements that we had. Marie-Ange Riggio: If I may, on that, I mean, are you afraid about the lead times for your policy? Because like -- are you afraid basically that the lead time about increasing the capacity can limit further growth going forward given the fact that, I mean, it will take time. If I'm correct, you have drone combat where you can increase the capacity pretty quickly. But for the rest, I think that takes a bit more time. So that's why I was saying like if you are trying to be ahead of the curve in terms of adding capacity because clearly, the backlog would support further growth or not. Can you probably just remind us a bit the lead time for any other projects that is not ground combat if you increase the capacity? Micael Johansson: If you talk about the lead times to get increased capacity into play when it comes to ground combat, it's like roughly 2 years. So we started early, fortunately. But there are different movements. As I said, there are 40 building projects ongoing in the Karlskoga area only. So they are not in the same sort of schedule as we speak, all of them. But it's roughly to get to full-fledged sort of big step-up on the capacity of support weapons, I would sort of simplify it to say it's roughly 2 years. Johan Andersson: Excellent. Thank you very much for the questions. I think we need to move on to some of your colleagues. But just take one question from the web here. Micael, in your CEO statement, you write right that Colombia has selected the Gripen and that you are in negotiations. Do you dare to set a time frame here? Or how should we view that? Micael Johansson: As I said before, I hope to conclude that during this year. That's sort of what I've said before. I'll stick to that. I won't give a week or a month or so, but we've been doing good progress and I'm pleased to see that. So I hope we will conclude this year. Johan Andersson: Good. Another one is on your drone capabilities. Should we start to see that, that also can be some larger orders here? Or will it be more of test and trials and so forth? Or in the future, would you see that this can also grow to more products and bigger-sized orders? Micael Johansson: No, I anticipate that to happen because I think also looking at what capabilities the commission has stated as flagship projects, if you want to implement that, of course, you need plenty of counter-UAS systems. And if you want to have another capability sort of more aggressively, you also need quantities. But we're not really there yet, but we're seeing contracts coming now. So I think that's an avenue that will grow, absolutely. But exactly how and when it's -- I can't say. But we're in that race. Johan Andersson: Good. Okay. I think we have a number of more questions over the telephone conference so let's spend the last 5 minutes there. Please, operator, next question. Operator: The next question comes from Renato Rios with Inderes. Renato Rios: This is Renato of Inderes. Congratulations on very good results today. Great work. It's similar to the question that was just asked regarding drones and AI. Looking ahead to, say, 2026 to 2030 or even beyond, how do you see drones technology and AI-driven unpowered products and systems moving from development to sort of recurring revenue and contracts? How significant a share do you think this could become in the medium to long term? And would be interesting to hear your view on the revenue mix, how it could look like across the ground, air and marine domains and the largest product categories. Micael Johansson: Good questions. I think looking into the crystal ball and trying to understand how quickly AI and autonomous capabilities will take an operational role and great quantity is really a difficult one, I must say. It's all connected to also the end user, how quickly are they prepared to change a bit of their concepts of operations from doing what they're doing now to using these capabilities in a new way. I mean, it's different looking at Ukraine, which are moving really quickly ahead with short iteration cycles, upgrading the drone capability on a weekly, daily basis, very decentralized to keep trying winning the war. And they take a bit of a risk, of course. It's different in an environment where you change the CONOPS of a defense force or an army to do things. It will take a little bit of time, I think, but it will definitely prevail and be there going forward. Technology was developed much quicker than I think we understand. And how much you can do on an autonomous basis and how much support you will have from AI agents, agentive AI going forward will be tremendous. But to quantify the share is -- I can't do that today. I have to make sure that we are part of that journey and that we invest in that going forward. Between the domains, I think the land domain will continue to grow and will be substantial if you look at the company from our side. Maritime and air is a bit sort of dependent on the mega deals, of course, a bit different in that domain. But then it will be a sustained business, of course, in the background as well. So I think land domain is more sort of sensors and products and weapons will continue to grow. And also, we hopefully will continue to grow a lot in the air domains as well. But that will be a bit dependent on the mega deals, honestly. Johan Andersson: Excellent. Operator, do we have a final question from the telephone conference? Operator: Yes and It comes from Afonso Osorio with Barclays. Afonso Osorio: I just wanted to come back to this Gripen deal with Ukraine. I mean the 100 to 150 jets is a massive potential order here. So firstly, what will be the total length of these contracts, assuming the delivery starts 3 years from now, as you just said? And then what would be the profitability of that contract compared to the other contracts you have within the Gripen family? Micael Johansson: Good questions that I'm sure you understand I can't sort of nail that down completely. But I mean, I've said before, I mean, that size of the contract would of course create scale and improve the profitability of the Aeronautics domain. Then it depends on many other things, what kind of availability do they need, what kind of flexibility and agility do they need, ground support equipments, training and all of that in terms of the whole contract. But you can sort of look at Brazil and then you do your mathematics on what sort of 100 or 150 contract. It's in that ballpark, but it depends on the number of things that we haven't nailed down yet to look at the size of the contract. But everything that adds that scale to the operation would, of course, add profitability. That's for sure. But I won't sort of say how much today. That's not sort of possible. We will start working this now and look what the expectations are from Ukraine comes to schedule, delivery rates and when the first aircraft needs to arrive and then offer them something that needs to be discussed. And apart from that, all these things around financing must come into play as well. So we will work that diligently, of course, no question about it. And I look forward to it. Can I say one thing before we end, which I forgot actually. You've seen probably the press release that I just want to say that we have now appointed a new position in our corporate management, strategy and technology. And it is Marcus Wandt, who is a great technology guy and a visionary guy, a good leader that will take that role. And we do this because there are cross-company initiatives that we have to have a thorough discussion about in corporate management and all the initiatives that comes from me or NATO, of course, as well. But technology is moving so fast. So we need to be sure that we have the right discussion in corporate management. So I look forward to welcome Marcus Wandt 1st of November to my corporate management. Johan Andersson: Thank you very much, Micael. And with that, good ending. We finalized this call for the third quarter, and very much look forward to the Q4 call that we will have then in beginning of February. So thank you again very much for listening in and also joining over the web. And if you have any further questions, do not hesitate to reach out to us at the Investor Relations department. And have a really, really nice day. Thank you. Micael Johansson: Thank you. Anna Wijkander: Thank you.
Operator: Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Hexagon Q3 Report 2025 Webcast and Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Anders Svensson, President and CEO of Hexagon. Please go ahead, sir. Anders Svensson: Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to our third quarter 2025 earnings presentation. Today, we have an extended session with a bit of a different format. So I will take a moment now in the beginning just to walk you through how it will work. So in a moment, I will start by taking you through the third quarter performance. First, from a group perspective, and then focus on Hexagon core business performance in the third quarter. I will then hand over to Mattias Stenberg, the CEO of our potential spin-off company, Octave, and he will talk about the Octave performance during the quarter. Mattias will then hand over to Norbert Hanke, our interim CFO, who will cover the financials for Hexagon Group in a bit more details. Following this, I will take an additional roughly 20 minutes or so, to discuss my initial thoughts from my first full quarter at Hexagon, including also immediate priorities, with a focus then on -- also here on Hexagon core. And we will then, of course, open up for questions-and-answers. But starting then with our third quarter performance, and I start directly on the highlights. So in the third quarter, we made solid progress in our financial metrics and delivered a great deal of operational progress. Organic growth was 4%, with growth driven strongly by a demand in Autonomous Solutions and also across some of the other customer segments, such as aerospace and defense, electronics, machine control, mining and general manufacturing. Operating margin strengthened quarter-on-quarter, despite that Q3 is normally our seasonally weakest quarter, but it remained below our targeted levels. Across Hexagon Group, we have identified a cost efficiency program, which has been in action now and will begin to benefit margins gradually from the coming quarter here, the fourth quarter and will then have full effect by the end of 2026. Cash conversion in the quarter was good at 77%, considering that Q3 is normally the weakest quarter in the year. And we remained on course to achieve our annualized target of 80% to 90%. We also made some strategic operational moves during the quarter. We have previously announced the sale of our D&E business in Manufacturing Intelligence to Cadence for EUR 2.7 billion. And we made some changes to the executive leadership team ahead of the potential separation of Octave. And this separation is still on track for the first half year of 2026. And I will talk more about these changes in a moment. But first, I will walk you through the announcement where we are addressing our cost issue. So at my first call during the second quarter report, I committed to review the cost base of Hexagon to address the recent challenge in our operating margins. So across Hexagon Group, we have identified EUR 110 million of potential savings with around EUR 74 million being related to Hexagon core and EUR 36 million being related to Octave. And as I said, we expect to see these benefits gradually starting from the fourth quarter this year and then with full effect at the end of next year. The cost to achieve these efficiencies will be around EUR 113 million. In Hexagon core, we also conducted a review of our balance sheet, which we identified a charge of EUR 186 million related to primarily innovation in history and also some other items like inventory and also discontinued products. These charges were also taken during the third quarter. And I'm very confident that these situations will be less likely in the future as I expect our businesses to manage their profit and loss and balance sheet within normal operations, and key steps we are taking here is to give divisions full accountability for financial performance. It will also enable operational and product decisions to be taken closer to customers to ensure a market fit and also that customer needs are met. We're also strengthening our governance for approvals and review systems, and we are implementing a new performance management system to enable swift response. I'll now turn into recent changes to our executive team. So we have announced that David Mills is stepping down as CFO from Hexagon for personal reasons, and he will be replaced on an interim basis by Norbert Hanke until we find a permanent replacement. We didn't want to see David go, but I understand the reasons and he has my full support. But I'm very happy that David has agreed to remain available for us for the next 6 months as a financial adviser and that we also have a very competent and knowledgeable interim replacement here with Norbert. We have also announced that on the separation of Octave, Ben Maslen and Tony Zana will transition to the Octave leadership team, where Ben will be the CFO, and Tony will be Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary. Ben and Tony has been key members to the Hexagon executive team for many years and still are. And while I'm sorry to see them go, I'm also delighted to see them progress into these new roles with Octave. And I have no doubt that they will be instrumental in driving value for Octave and embrace the future that this company is going into as an independent listed company. And I'm pleased to announce that replacing Ben is Andreas Wenzel. Andreas joins us from ABB, where he has held a number of senior roles, including Head of Strategy and M&A. Replacing Tony will be Thomas De Muynck, who joins us from Jones Day where he was the Head of the Brussels practice. Thomas joined us early in this month, and I'm very happy to welcome him on board to the team. Turning now to the next slide. I will talk briefly on the decision to sell our D&E business. In early September, we announced the sale of our D&E business to Cadence for EUR 2.7 billion. The engineering and simulation market has been consolidating rapidly and electronical design and automation suppliers, EDA suppliers, have been increasingly taking a leading role in this consolidation. And we are then consolidating with physical simulation suppliers like our own D&E business, and we have seen this with other companies like Siemens, Altair and Synopsys, Ansys. And this is a trend which is very difficult for Hexagon to follow. It is therefore better that we dedicate our time and attention to our core, which is precision measurement, positioning and autonomy technologies, where we can use our market leadership position to drive best-in-peer group growth and margin levels. And just to make it very clear for everyone, this is not an exit from software at Hexagon. Post the potential separation of Octave and the sale of D&E, Hexagon software and services revenue will still account for above 40% of revenues and 25% recurring revenues, and we expect these amounts to continue to grow also in the future. The funds released by the transaction expected to be in the amount of EUR 1.4 billion will help support us to build and develop our businesses while also maintaining a very robust balance sheet. We expect the transaction to close during the first quarter of 2026. I'm now turning to the next section, and that's the financial performance of Hexagon core in the third quarter. So I'll move directly into that. So Hexagon core, that means excluding Octave business, grew by 5% organic in the third quarter with an adjusted operating margin of 27%. This is a solid financial performance in challenged end market environments. I will now turn into a focus on Manufacturing Intelligence. So MI reported revenues of EUR 445 million, represent a 3% organic growth versus 2024. There was a strength in general manufacturing and electronics, and it was somewhat offset by continued soft demand within automotive. There was growth across all geographies with good demand in the Americas and growth also in EMEA, where automotive weakness was offset by a strong demand in aerospace. China also grew with 3% in the quarter, strength within electronics and general manufacturing, but signs of weakness is also here within automotive. The division reported EUR 112 million EBIT and an operating margin then of 25.1%, and it was impacted by some negative currency effects. In fixed currency, if you compare the margin year-on-year, it was actually better in 2025 than in 2024. So turning now to Geosystems, where we reported revenues of EUR 353 million during the quarter. And I'm happy to say that represented a 1% organic growth compared to last year. And it was really good to see a return to growth after 6 quarters of negative growth. Last time we had a positive growth was the fourth quarter of 2023. So good to see that we are back on positive numbers. We saw continued growth in the software portfolio and associated recurring revenues and a good contribution from our new product iCON trades, which continues to grow very well. This was, however, offset by continued weakness in hardware related to construction and heavy infrastructure, where the market remains very weak, especially in China. The Americas continued to grow, and there was a return to modest growth in EMEA. Asia remained challenged, of course, given the exposure to China heavy manufacturing or heavy infrastructure, particularly in high-speed railway, offsetting the continued good growth that we actually have in India. And here, maybe adding some interesting facts that in average 2022 to 2024, China was building 3,600 kilometers of rail every year. If you compare to the first half year of 2025, they only was building 301 kilometers. So it's almost a drop of 85%. And that is, of course, impacting Geosystems deliveries in China. EBIT declined to EUR 95 million with an operating margin of 26.9%, reflecting the combined effects of low volume in some product segments, the weaker product mix because the product mix going into this heavy infrastructure is a really positive contributor and also then we had negative currency impacts. Finally, I turn into Autonomous Solutions. And I'm happy to say here we have the standout performer in the quarter, delivered revenues of EUR 178 million, representing 19% organic growth compared to the prior year. There was a very strong performance in aerospace and defense. Mining was also growing well and end markets in agriculture actually remain challenging. So here's the problem child within this division currently. But it's market related, and the agriculture is currently in a serious downturn, and we are seeing signs of improvement, but still it's very low compared to where it should be. By geography, growth was strong in the Americas, which represented the majority of the aerospace and defense demand in the quarter. APAC also grew well, supported by demand in the autonomous road trend project within Australia and EMEA declined, but that was on tough comparables. EBIT came in at EUR 65 million, represented an increased EBITDA margin -- EBIT margin to 36.6%, driven by strong volume, positive product mix, but slightly offset by currency. So in summary, a very solid performance within Hexagon core in general. And I will now hand over to Mattias, who will cover the Octave performance. Mattias Stenberg: Yes. Thank you, Anders, and good morning, everyone. We'll start with, I thought, since this is the first time we report like this publicly for Octave, I thought we'd start with a short description on what the business is and what we do. So we are a market-leading provider of enterprise software that ultimately helps customers design, build, operate and protect mission-critical industrial and infrastructure assets. In terms of numbers, we had about EUR 1.5 billion revenue last year. As you can see also from the slide, we have high recurring revenue and high profitability. We have roughly 7,400 employees around the world. And we have a very strong, I would say, A+ list of customers. As you can see, roughly 60% of the global Fortune 500 companies are customers of Octave today. And you can see some of the logos there on the slide, but of course, many, many more. So what could we do if we move to the next slide and talk about our core pillars. I think, first of all, it's important to say what makes us unique is that we connect all of these pillars together into one platform, one natively integrated data platform, right, all the way from design, build, operate and protect. So you will see product names out to the right here on the slide, some of the flagship products, obviously, SmartPlant 3D, EcoSys, EAM, ETQ, et cetera. But the way we go to market is really by selling a platform. We're selling solutions. We're delivering value, not selling individual products. I think an example of that is that you can also see that products like SDx2, which is our data platform, shows up in several of the different pillars here. Design is our biggest area, as you can see from the revenue contribution pie there. Build would be our smallest one, operate our second largest, and that's also been the fastest growing over the last couple of years. But moving into the quarter, how did we do on the next slide. I guess the headline number is that we grew organic growth 1%. And one has to remember first that we come from several years of good growth, right? I think that's one important thing to say. The other thing to say is that our recurring revenue grew 6%. So I feel confident that we're building momentum for the future. We're adding customers, adding seats, et cetera. So the base is growing. And you can see that by our SaaS revenue that grew strong double digits. However, our lease revenue was flattish, which obviously had a, what you say, dampening effect on the recurring revenue compared to the SaaS. To offset this growth, we did have a decline in perpetual licenses. This is a revenue that varies quite a lot by quarter. It depends if you get a big deal in one quarter or the other, the other thing one has to say also is that it is an intentional strategy and has been for quite a while to transition this revenue into subscription revenue. So if you look at the slide there as well, we described that the license revenue is now 13% in this quarter of total revenue. And this is the revenue that we will gradually, over time, transition to SaaS. If you look at the profitability, we did 26% operating margin, which was lower than last year. And I think it's a combination of things. I mean, one, that the perpetual licenses were down that has a high drop-through. Also that we've had some additional investments partly due to making the company ready for being a stand-alone public company and also to integrate the other business units, SIG, ETQ and Bricsys that we have taken on recently. Important to say, however, that this is a temporary downturn in the margin. We are taking cost effects like Anders talked about. And my expectation is that this will put us back on a growing margin trajectory. If we move to the next slide, I wanted to highlight one very important strategic win we had in the quarter. We won a multiyear 8-figure deal. And I guess you could say also there was very high 8 figures, and I see this as proof that our strategy of selling a platform and our relatively new product, SDx2 is delivering value in the market and to customers. It really also sets a precedent, I think, for other owner operators that want to digitalize their assets. And it will clearly also influence and incentivize other players in the ecosystem, such as EPCs, suppliers, contractors to adopt our platform as they see big owner operators adopting it. Okay. On the next slide, I wanted to say a few words about some key initiatives that are going on right now. Like I mentioned, we are transitioning our business to a SaaS model. So you will see more of that going forward. I also mentioned that we are investing in making the company ready to be a stand-alone public company. Also wanted to highlight the strategic disposal that we did earlier this summer of some noncore assets in the HexFed business, which historically sat in the SIG division. It was around EUR 90 million of revenue, and this will strengthen our margin profile and, yes, sharpen focus for us going forward. Like I also mentioned, we are in the midst of integrating these businesses into one. We are making very good progress on that and we'll, yes, soon complete that. We're also, like Anders mentioned, completing the cost saving program, which will, like I mentioned, put us back on a growing margin path. Finally, we are also making improvements to our organizational structure. So if you go to the next slide, I wanted to highlight the management team that we have put together here over the last couple of quarters. I'm not going to read every resume here, but if you -- there was this press release in September where you can read more about this if you're interested. But I would say it's a world-class management team that we put together that we think really will help us scale this business. It's a combination of Hexagon executives like Ben and Tony that Anders mentioned. And then we have some executives from the former ALI division as well as 2 new recruits that I wanted to say a few more words about. So we've hired a Chief Product Officer in Jay Allardyce. He is a recognized leader in the industry across AI and enterprise software. He has had prior leadership roles at HP, GE, Uptake and Google. So I think he will be a great addition to our strategy and product teams. We also have hired Tamara Adams or Tammy, as she goes by, who is a strong CRO with lots of experience in the industry. She has had recent roles at Honeywell, Oracle and most recently as Chief Revenue Officer of a company called Dotmatics, which recently was acquired by Siemens. So in summary, I'm very happy with the team we put together, and I'm sure they will help us scale this going forward. Finally, on the next slide, I wanted to say a few words about the time line and what you can expect there. So we are obviously well aware of that the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting the SEC and the review process, but we still feel that we are on track to complete the spin-off in the first half of next year. Also, like we mentioned before, Octave will be listed on a U.S. National Securities Exchange with the Swedish depository receipt expected to run for approximately 2 years. And also like we mentioned in the report, we will -- we are planning to hold an Octave Investor Day sometime in the first quarter next year, and we will come back with an exact date when we have it. So thank you very much. And then I'm handing over to Norbert. Norbert Hanke: Yes. Thanks, Mattias. In the following financial update, I will take you through the Q3 performance for the Hexagon group. Turning now to the next slide. Let us begin with the Q3 2025 income statement. Taking the sales bridge first. Revenue were EUR 1.3 billion, generating reported growth of 0%. Currency was a negative minus 4% on sales, and there was a positive plus 1% from structure, resulting in organic growth of 4%. Gross margin were stable at 67%, considering the impacts of FX. We continue to be confident in driving gross margin expansion as we will have positive impacts from new product releases. Operating earnings decreased by 7% to EUR 349 million, corresponding to a margin of 26.8%. I will break this out further in the profit bridge. Interest expenses and financial costs decreased from EUR 44 million to EUR 32 million, given a delta on earnings before tax of minus 5%. Taxes being at 18%, in line with prior years, bringing us down to an EPS of EUR 0.096 also declining by minus 5%. Just for reference, the EBIT1, including PPA includes EUR 27 million of amortization and so dilutes the EBIT1 percentage to 24.7%. Next slide, please. Moving on to the gross margin development. As I mentioned on the previous slide, we saw stability in the gross margin once adjusting for currency. On a rolling 12-month basis, gross margin of 67% is broadly in line with the prior year. Turning now to the profit bridge, please. So during Q3, currency continued to be dilutive, reducing EBIT margin by 30 basis points. The structural element was accretive with solid contribution from acquired companies such as Septentrio and Geomagic as well as by the sales of the dilutive assets in Octave. The organic impact was negative, diluting the margin by 240 basis points. This mainly reflects a cost base that is not yet fully aligned with the current level of demand. To address this, we have started a cost program to rightsize the organization and mitigating this impact going forward. We expect the benefits to contribute or to start to contribute gradually from the fourth quarter of 2025 and beyond. Turning to the next slide, please. Moving on to the Q3 cash flow, which is a strong performance when taking seasonality into account. The adjusted EBITDA variance at minus 2% demonstrates the continued stronger cash leverage versus the EBIT1 variance at minus 7% due to the increase in D&A. The working capital represented a build of EUR 32.4 million in the quarter, an improvement to working capital management last year that results in a 1% increase in the operating cash flow before tax and interest, which leads to a solid cash conversion of 77% versus 70% last year. Interest payments marginally decreased as expected and cash taxes remained at a similar level to Q3 last year. The nonrecurring items cash outflow of EUR 38.8 million versus the prior year of EUR 22.7 million brings an operating cash flow of EUR 139 million, decreasing by minus 3%. Next slide, please. Moving on to the working capital trend. The Q3 net working capital being a build of EUR 32.4 million versus the prior year build of EUR 56.2 million decreased the proportion to rolling 12-month sales to 5.3%, lower than the prior year level of 8.3%, which is still below the 10% threshold we aim to achieve. To conclude, the divisions have continued to mitigate an uncertain environment to deliver growth, solid cash conversion and stable gross margin. Negative currency has been a headwind to EBIT1 margin development, and we are working to address the cost base through the announced cost program. I will now hand back to Anders. Anders Svensson: Thank you, Norbert. And I will then start by summarizing the third quarter. So to conclude, in Q3, we have seen solid development in our financial metrics. Organic growth of 4%, an improvement in margins quarter-on-quarter and a good cash flow considering the usual seasonalities for the third quarter. While improved, our operating margins remain below our expectations and below our targets. And as a result, we then launched an efficiency program aiming to achieve cost savings of EUR 110 million. And this, we expect to have gradual benefits from the fourth quarter this year with full effect the end of 2026. We do not see the immediate market environment that currently is characterized by delays in customer decisions, as Mattias mentioned and also within the Hexagon core businesses, and we don't expect that to change in the near term. So we see a similar environment in the beginning here of the fourth quarter. But we have also released a lot of products in recent quarters, and we see that as we are set up in a good way when the positive environment returns. Operationally, we had a successful quarter. The sale of D&E, as I mentioned, as one of the key highlights and the release of those funds will then further fund growth for both Octave and Hexagon core. And finally, then, the potential separation of Octave remains on track for completion in the first half of 2026. I'll now turn to my first quarter review slides. So in this section, unless I otherwise mentioned or it's otherwise stated in the slides, it would be relating to Hexagon core businesses. And that means then the type of businesses that are left after the potential spin-off of Octave, of course. And this includes then our business areas, Manufacturing Intelligence, Geosystems, Autonomous Solutions and also the Robotics division. So I will take you through my initial thoughts and observations after now almost exactly 3 months being at Hexagon. And I will then talk about actions we are taking to drive performance further and some more details about our upcoming CMD. So I turn into the first slide here. So Hexagon has created superior value for many decades now, at least 2-plus decades, and we have the potential setup to continue to generate superior value creation for decades to come. And today, we are at a very exciting inflection point in our company's history because our industrial customer base, they value precision and quality more than ever as they try to meet the increased quality demands of everything getting more tight, more small and with less tolerances and also the increased sustainability challenges. They're also driving towards full autonomy as a response to the shortage of skilled labor in the world. Our industry-leading technologies regarding sensors, software and AI are allowing us to deliver ever more value-adding products and services to our customers, and we are well placed to seize the opportunity for autonomous operations in many industry verticals going forward. Our new operating model will enable us to take full advantage of our profitable growth opportunities. But first, a little more on the opportunity ahead. So I turn to the next slide. So Hexagon is ideally positioned to enable autonomy in many industry verticals, and we will do this by combining our capabilities and offerings within various fields. We possess market-leading measurement and positioning technologies, combining multiple types of sensors. We utilize these to deliver sophisticated real-time digital twins, including reality like full 3D environments of buildings and cities. And we leverage advanced analysis on [ AI ] to unlock the value of petabytes of data that we generate. The combination of these capabilities position Hexagon to be a clear leader in the emerging field of Autonomous Solutions. Many of our industrial customers have embarked on a journey towards these autonomous operations as they increasingly struggle to find skilled and qualified labor. And hence, they need to move towards so-called lights-out production. And here, of course, our new humanoid robot, AEON, is a prime example of enabling industry autonomy. Measurement and positioning new technologies and industrial autonomy are only going to become more important as industrial customers face these significant challenges. So let's see how our products are helping. So turning to the next slide. Since late 2024, we have launched a number of important product innovations, which combine our most advanced sensor with latest technology on AI and digitalization. All of them also bring significant advances on autonomy. Taking some examples from this page, we have talked previously quite a lot about AEON and iCON trades. And also last quarter, we talked about MAESTRO, our new coordinate measurement machine. So I will focus on the other one here. So in Manufacturing Intelligence, we have the ATS800, which is the first laser tracker ever to merge scanning and reflector tracking into one system. This portable metrology device is automation-ready and uses AI to pinpoint the true center of each measurement, detect features like holes and edges, et cetera, and this is huge to speeding up the process and removing the need for human intervention. And also now in the beginning of October in Geosystems, we just launched the TS20. And that's the first new total station platform in, I would say, 20 years plus. And it's a full hardware and software overhaul it's the first total station with on-device AI, which enables it to recognize and lock into any prism without user input. And this drastically reduces errors, setup time and operator dependency. And this is a direct response from Hexagon to the shortage of skilled surveyors. So combining our skills in measurement and positioning technologies, digital twins and advances in AI to deliver solutions for industrial autonomy is key for Hexagon, and we are in the middle of this journey. So the products you can see here on the page represent profitable growth opportunities ahead. And this potential is, of course, largely not reflected in Q3 financial performance and will also not be very much reflected in Q4. But going forward, these products will play a major role in Hexagon's delivery. So turning to the next slide. So we know that Hexagon historically demonstrated that we can generate strong organic growth with excellent operating margins. And on this slide, I try to demonstrate a bit the relationship between organic growth and profitability during the last 2 years. And we can see here in this recent history that we have 2 trends. One is that the organic growth has been impacted by the macro backdrop, and we can see it's been negative or at best flattish, while the operating margins have been subject to increasing cost levels internally and hence, a dislocation from our top line alignment and -- a top line development, which has been flat. So you can see we have dropped even more when it comes to profit. The recent quarter shows some signs of reversal of this trend. And with our increased cost focus going ahead here, combining this with our new operating model, we intend to generate a delivery model within Hexagon core that supports profitable growth generation. So let's have a look at the steps we have taken, moving then to the next slide. During the third quarter, we have taken 2 really important steps to enable us going forward to perform at our full potential. The first one is our new operating model, which embraces best practices of decentralization, but then applies them to the specific situation of Hexagon. So we have established 17 divisional P&Ls with our externally reported businesses with dedicated management team, and this would improve accountability within these organizations considerably. This would also improve our ability to quickly respond to end market changes and also to customer changes and make us generally faster to take decisions. It also means that product and operational decisions will move closer to customers, ensuring that we take the right decisions related to the different market dynamics and ensuring we don't take decisions centrally where we don't have the input from markets and customers. The second step that we have taken is to realign our operational performance, and that was to do this restructure program that we communicated of EUR 110 million. And this should be understood that this is in addition and completely unrelated to the operating model. If we would have kept the same model as we already had, we would have launched the same program. So it's not related. We already communicated that we are addressing the cost base challenge to respond to the pressures on these margins. And alongside this, we have taken the decision to review the balance sheet as well and in particular, related to historic R&D spend. This would help us to baseline performance so we can measure our divisional leaders properly on performance going forward. This baselining will only happen once, and we expect our divisional leaders to manage their P&Ls and balance sheet going forward as a part of normal operations, with adjustments only being taken for exceptional circumstances going forward. It could be such acquisitions with partly overlapping offerings. It could be a new COVID situation when we need to, as a group, react quickly. And it could be large restructure within the group, like the spin-off of Octave for example. All other items need to be handled within the business of day-to-day operations. Turning now to some more details on R&D, where we have taken the decision to make these impairments. So innovation power is one of Hexagon's greatest skills and assets and is something that we will nurture also going forward. However, in recent years, investments in R&D has spiked, as you can see in the graph there. And that's mainly due to related to somewhat delayed core product developments and cost overruns in some major innovation projects, and we have seen this not only in one division, it's been actually in several divisions where some of our key renewal projects has been fairly late to market. The positive thing is they're coming to market now. And so that's really positive to see with the TS20, et cetera. But this has meant that we have seen significantly increased R&D spend, while at the same time, the benefits of our organic growth and margins have not yet materialized to be seen. Maybe to be added here as well, there are some elements in this spike that related to software acquisitions that in relation has a generally higher R&D spend than our normal businesses. But with these new product launches across '25 and '26, we expect R&D to stabilize on an absolute basis and then to decrease on a ratio versus sales. However, as we reviewed our innovation and product portfolio, it also became clear that in some cases, we have invested into innovation that turned not fully to meet customer requirements or the target end market situation has changed or we have decided to exit a specific offering. This means that there are some product lines that are not performing and will not be able to generate a return. So we have, therefore, taken the decision to impair EUR 186 million in Hexagon core. Most of this then is related to these R&D spends, but there's also some related to inventories. And this will give our businesses the opportunity to reset and move forward from a more comparable basis. So we are also then able to performance manage on actual performance and not on historical effects. As I mentioned earlier, our new operating model will help us to avoid that we face the need to do such impairments again in the future. I move to the next slide. So this is explaining a bit the new management structure. So we will have 17 profit and loss accountable businesses, which are part of -- these are sort of the main part of our operating model. So I will explain a bit how it will work. So Hexagon has always operated with decentralized structure, which has then entailed a lot of freedom for the divisional presidents to run their businesses, and it has kept the corporate cost levels quite low. However, within the former divisions, the organizational structures became quite overly complex sometimes with slow decision-making and not always focused on end customers. So our new operating model establish clear and common management blueprint on a more granular level. And also, we have historically called divisions. They will now be called business areas instead, and they will have divisions reporting into them. So the previous divisions, Manufacturing Intelligence, Geosystems, Autonomous Solutions will now be called business areas. And they will then have the dark boxes, the 17 -- or you can say 16 smaller dark boxes reporting into them. But externally, we will still report on the business area level. And then you have the 17 dark blue box, which is robotics, and that will then continue to report into the CEO. Division leaders and their teams will then have mandate to deliver superior value creation within the businesses. And I move to the next slide to show how those mandates will be set up. So a division can have a mandate of stability, profitability or growth depending on where they are in the current situation. So we refer to these 3 stages as strategic mandates. And that sets the overall direction for the business and how the management and leadership of those divisions should basically think every morning when they wake up. If you are in stability, it does, of course, not mean that you need to restructure or sell parts of your business. You can also transform it organically. And if you are in growth, it doesn't mean that you need to buy everything, you can also grow organically. But we will allocate capital accordingly. So more capital allocated towards where you are in growth and less when you are in profitability and almost nothing when you are in stability. Moving then to the next slide. So a decentralized management structure with full accountable divisions can only create value sustainably if it's combined with a strong governance and a clear performance management system. And here, we are taking a major step forward at Hexagon with the introduction of scorecards. At the core of the scorecard system is a set of standardized financials and nonfinancial KPIs, which are closely tracked for all divisions in a fully consistent way. The scorecard system will significantly improve transparency, accountability and also speed of action taking to steer the division in the right direction and to pull the right levers to change direction or create more value. I then turn into the next slide, and that's the summary. So Hexagon is a strong company with a bright future ahead. Our fundamentals are very good. We are the market leader in precision measurement technologies. We have strong exposure to high-growth end markets and emerging field markets like industrial autonomy. And this places us very well to capture the opportunities presented from several macro trends, including the main one, labor shortages and skill shortages, increasing quality demands and also, of course, sustainability and safety demands. Our innovation and expertise is second to none, and that's reflected in several of the exciting new products that I showcased in an earlier slide. And as we have a clear plan to achieve superior value creation going forward, we are taking immediate actions to address our cost base. And in addition, we're implementing best practice decentralized operating model, establishing these 17 divisions with full accountability. Operational decisions will then be taken faster and innovation will be anchored in markets and close to customer needs. And last, we will manage our division portfolio very closely for performance and value creation, applying proven tools like strategic mandates and the scorecard system. Turning then to the next slide, where we are inviting you all to Hexagon's Capital Markets Day in 2026. And that's on the 30th April. It will be showcased in London. And on this event, we will discuss in much more detail business area strategies, including the divisional mandates that we have identified. And also, we will also discuss then new financial targets for Hexagon core '26 and forward. So we are really looking forward to seeing you all there. And with that, I think that summarizes the presentation, and we will now move into the Q&A section. Operator: [Operator Instructions] And your first question today comes from the line of Johan Eliason from SB1 Markets. Johan Eliason: I was wondering a little bit, I mean, your new setup of the Hexagon core looks excellent to me. One issue that's been high on the agenda over a couple of years has been the way you capitalize R&D and now obviously, you impair a lot of that. Will you change the strategy regarding R&D capitalization going forward? Anders Svensson: So thanks, Johan, for the question. We will not basically change the way we run capitalization is IAS 38. We will make sure, of course, that we are not capitalizing too early of any of the projects. We will manage our portfolio more like an insurance company. If we believe that we take a larger risk in one project, we can't afford to take larger risks in all projects. So we can manage all that within the normal operational structure of the company. So what we are doing is more strengthening around how we do governance when we approve projects to be started, how we review projects during the way to make sure we don't continue to invest in something that we are aware of will be difficult in a go-to-market situation. So the answer to your question is we will not change the methodology of capitalization and by then restating all our history or something like that. So we will keep the current way of operating, but we will operate more carefully and more controlled and with a tighter governance. Johan Eliason: Excellent. And then secondly, you will have a very strong balance sheet after the D&E divestment next year. How are you thinking about the balance sheet of the spin-off Octave? Is that a business that should be run on a net cash position? Or how should we think about how to split the balance sheet going forward? Anders Svensson: Yes. So this is a decision that the Board will take at the right stage in the process on how we divide the assets, net debts and the firepower within the company generated from the D&E sale. So that's a question we would need to come back to you on. Johan Eliason: Okay. I guess that's topics on the Capital Markets Day. Then just finally, a short question also for Mattias here. In Octave, you talked about lease revenue stable. I'm not sure I understand what lease revenues are. You have subscription license and services in your pie charts. How does this corroborate to each other? Mattias Stenberg: Yes. Yes, good question. And first of all, I should say we will break all of this down for you in more detail at the Investor Day, right, since we are in a public filing process, and we're still a division of Hexagon. There's -- we're not going to give all of the details today. But basically, leases are -- it's also subscription revenue, but it's month-to-month leases, right, of seats. So think of it, it fluctuates more than the SaaS revenue, right? So that's why it's, yes, more, I guess, short-term volatile than the SaaS, if that helps you. Operator: And your next question comes from the line of Erik Golrang from SEB. Erik Pettersson-Golrang: I have a couple of questions. So we'll start with Geosystems and China, which was weaker. And you talked about the development on the high-speed rail side in China. So given you have some peers in China growing much faster, is that basically an end market split dynamic that means Geosystems is growing so much lower? Anders Svensson: Sorry, we had a little bit of a problem here with the sound in the beginning of the question. Would you mind to repeat it? Erik Pettersson-Golrang: Sure. So on Geosystems development in China and your commentary there that a lot of the weakness is related to your exposure towards high-speed rail and that development. And so your take is basically that it's an end market split that means that you are growing slower than particularly some of the local peers in China. Anders Svensson: Yes, I would say the end market exposure that we have in China is related to where very high precision is required and not in the general sort of market for our competitors. So we are in the top-tier segment within China. And the top-tier segment is not required everywhere, of course. It's required when you have sort of high-speed railway manufacturing and other very large infrastructure projects. So our exposure to that sector within construction is much higher than our competition. So when something happens to that specific part of the market, we get hit very hard. And that's exactly what happened if you compare that to local competitors. Erik Pettersson-Golrang: Okay. And then as a follow-up on that, any -- there was never a plan to do with Geosystems similar to with -- as you do with MI now, making China a separate unit within to make it operate a bit more autonomously given developments in China? Anders Svensson: The question is good. And -- but that option is actually not available because the reason why we can do that in MI is that we have been very good in history on localizing our products and our innovation also is localized. So within MI, we have a good, better and best offering. Best is basically the offering that we use globally and the good and better offering is the offering we use within China for China. And it's fully manufactured, developed, et cetera, within China. If you look at Geosystems, basically, very little is localized in terms of supply chains, innovation, et cetera, to China. So it's mainly a global offering that we have. So a lot of the products are imported to China. And this is the reason also, of course, why we are only present in Geosystems in the top-tier segment and not in the general segment in the market. So completely different situations within those 2 businesses. So it wouldn't make any sense to do that within Geosystems. Erik Pettersson-Golrang: Okay. Then for Mattias on Octave, just if you can give some more perspective on the low growth rate. I get that you say that growth has been high for a few years, but I guess that depends a bit on the starting point you use and you certainly have some peers that are growing quite a bit faster. So what -- I mean, what kind of growth rate would you like to get out of Octave in the midterm? Mattias Stenberg: Yes. I mean I'm not going to give a forecast today, as you can imagine, since we are doing the Investor Day in Q1. But fair to say is that it needs to be higher the growth, and it needs to be higher the margin. And I feel confident when I see recurring revenue growing a lot faster than the headline number, the reported revenue. So yes, I mean, I think that's -- I'll stop there, I think, and then we'll discuss more in Q1. Erik Pettersson-Golrang: Okay. Then just one quick at the end. You mentioned for Hexagon core and the peer-leading profit margins. What peers will you compare with? Anders Svensson: We have different peers in the different businesses, of course. So if you look at first, maybe you start with AS, you have peers like Sandvik, Epiroc, Metso, et cetera, right? And if you look at MI, you have ZEISS, Siemens, to some extent, Sandvik as well. You look at Geosystems, you have Trimble, FARO, NavVis, Topcon, do you want to add any? Mattias Stenberg: No, I think that's Renishaw. You mentioned already. Anders Svensson: Renishaw, yes. Mattias Stenberg: That's all, good. Operator: And the question comes from Sven Merkt from Barclays. Sven Merkt: Maybe first, following the R&D impairment, how should we think about R&D capitalization going forward? It looks like you're on track to capitalize around EUR 500 million this year and amortize EUR 300 million. So this gives you a net benefit of EUR 200 million. Where is that heading going forward? Norbert Hanke: Yes, it's Norbert here. From our point of view, as we are managing now the cost -- the R&D costs, and you have heard as well going forward on this, that we are very selective, right, in the sense and we will be very focused. It will be going down in the sense that overall, I think from our point of view, it will slowly decrease the gap from our point of view. Anders Svensson: Yes. And maybe adding here, so let there be no mistake, we are not doing the write-down of the balance sheet to improve the results. And actually, if you would compare going forward with the new products being released and the impairments we are doing on the balance sheet, it's basically a wash from the performance and the gap within the third quarter this year. So there will be no sort of big benefit in our reported results from this impairment. What this impairment does is to set up the new management of divisions and business areas on a right level so we can actually performance manage them on their operational performance and not performance manage them on historical mistakes that we have on the balance sheet that are not generating a return. So this is the reason why we do this. And that enables us then us and the Board to make sure that we take portfolio decisions that are based on facts and not skewed by historical balance sheet issues. That's the reason. Sven Merkt: Okay. Got it. And of the capitalized R&D that you have on the balance sheet at the moment, how much is sitting within Hexagon core versus Octave? Mattias Stenberg: We will not give any, say, further information on that, honestly. We'll do it when we have the spin. You will see it then. Anders Svensson: Yes, you will see it clearly when you have this potential spin executed. Sven Merkt: Okay. Fair enough. And final question, just on the cost savings. How much of that should we expect to really flow through profit and how much you might reinvest elsewhere? Anders Svensson: So what you see on the EUR 110 million of savings that we have communicated, that is what we expect flowing to the bottom line at the end of 2026. So that is net. That is not gross. But you -- I want to add one thing. You should not calculate a big effect in Q4. That is important to understand because this is a process that will take time before you will see the effect. And you will see gradual effect starting in Q4 this year, but then it will ramp up during '26 and give the full benefit at the end of the year. Operator: We will now take our next question. And your next question comes from the line of Johannes Schaller from Deutsche Bank. Johannes Schaller: Three, if I could. I mean, firstly, on the impairments. You said there are certain kind of areas, products, initiatives that are now discontinued or maybe where you didn't have the success you wanted to see. Could you give us a little bit more detail on what that is and which kind of areas are not part of the strategy and the growth profile of Hexagon anymore? And should we expect that this is it now in terms of impairments, maybe for the next 1 or 2 years? Or is that more an ongoing process where maybe in 6 months' time, you also find other areas? That would be my first question. The second was just coming back to China. I know you don't guide, but could you give us a bit of a sense kind of when you would expect that region to be back to growth? And then lastly, just on the Cadence stake that you got as part of that sale, what's the strategy here and the plan with that stake? Anders Svensson: Okay. I counted at least the 4 questions, but... Johannes Schaller: Apologies, you're right. Anders Svensson: No worries. No worries. So starting with the impairment, I will give you a couple of examples where we mean -- what I mean there. It could be related to market changes. We have, for example, one project that we have developed for autonomous driving mass production. And this, as you know, has been quite delayed coming to market all over the world, basically -- maybe except China, where it has come to market a bit at least. So when the main producer of cars then decides to cancel the platform, we have nowhere to allocate this to get any revenues for this. So this is something we need to write off, right? So that's market change. Then you have misalignment to customer needs. And this is also related to ourselves, but customer needs can also change over time, right? It could be, for example, we have developed a product and the expectation of operations from customer is 4 hours, and we can operate for 20 minutes. We don't fulfill the sort of sound levels that are required by the customer, et cetera, which means that we basically can't offload this product even if we would discount it 90% because nobody would buy it. So this is something we need to write off. It's useless, won't generate any revenue for us. And then you have the third area then, and that is when we decide as we now restructure our company given the potential spin-off of Octave, and we are refocusing Hexagon core. We then have areas that we believe are not suitable for us to continue to invest in and continue to take a part of, and they're not contributing positively, either in growth or in profitability. And we have then decided to exit those areas and those products, and then we need to write those off. I will, for competitive reasons, of course, not mention exactly which products these are in this call. And then if we go into -- will this be an ongoing thing? And I think I answered that question during my presentation, I hope, at least twice, but I'm happy to do it again. So my expectation is that our divisions and business areas need going forward to manage this in their operational normal day-to-day business and the operational profit and loss and balance sheet performance, and they will be monitored closely to make sure that we achieve this. The decisions in those divisions will then be taken closer to customers, so we are sure that we are aligned to market needs, customer needs, market changes all the time. We will have a stronger governance also before we start projects and also during projects to ensure that we stop projects early on when we notice that they are no longer aligned with market or customer expectations. And we will have a new performance management system to enable swift response when we see that some of the KPIs that we follow are getting off track. So this is not that some will come back on a regular basis. And I hope we won't do this at all going forward, unless we have one of those big things that I mentioned could be a potential spin-off like Octave. That will, of course, make us do some things in terms of realignment structure, et cetera. It could be that we, as a company, need to react very quickly together, like a new sort of COVID situation or something like that. So those are the kind of situations where we might have to do this again on a higher level on a group level. But otherwise, it could also be that we buy a bigger company and there is product overlap and we need to make some impairments of some of that asset, of course. But those are the only examples. It should not be from normal operations and normal R&D development. That should be managed in the day-to-day business in the day-to-day results. And then China guidance, we are not guiding forward on China, but there are areas in China that are performing very well. So if you look at Manufacturing Intelligence, we are growing quite well in Manufacturing Intelligence on a constant basis in China. I think in Q2, we grew 10%. In Q3, we grew 3% organically. So we continue to grow. The different markets are strong there. Electronics, general manufacturing, we're doing very well. Then we have this construction and larger infrastructure projects, which is very weak currently. And when that change into being more positive again, I mean, your guess is as good as mine, right? So we are all hoping that, that will change quickly. But unless that change, we will not see a speed up or an improvement in Geosystems performance. And Geosystems is now, I would say, what is it, 20% negative growth year-on-year or so. So that is affecting, of course, the full number for China for us. But when that turns, that business turns, of course, we will start seeing better numbers from China on the group level. But underlying, ALI is performing quite well in China. Manufacturing Intelligence is performing well in China. And Autonomous Solutions, which is more bumpy, given mining orders, et cetera, are performing well from time to time in China as well. So our China issue is related to large infrastructure and construction within China currently. And then Norbert, do you want to take the Cadence? Norbert Hanke: Sure. So the question was on the Cadence, if I understood this correctly, because it's a while ago that you asked and the question here was related regarding net gain, I assume from... Anders Svensson: I think it's the EUR 810 million that we have as Cadence shares, right? Ben, you can maybe... Norbert Hanke: Yes. I think, obviously, the focus at the moment is to close the deal, Johannes, and that's still on track for the first quarter of next year. It's obviously a very nice stake to have. Cadence is a super strong company with a great outlook. So it's a nice stake to have. But I think we'll have to come back to you on what the plans for it are because it's tied to the capital allocation discussion between Octave and Hexagon, and that's obviously a decision for the Board. So I think we'll come back to you on that. Operator: We will now go to the next question. And the question comes from the line of Mikael Las en from DNB Carnegie. Mikael Laséen: All right. You stated here, that the division priorities will follow the sequence stability, profitability and growth on Page 37. Could you give a sense of how Hexagon Core is distributed across the 3 categories? And maybe give some examples from the 17 P&L accountable divisions on Page 36. Anders Svensson: Yes. Thanks, Mikael. We will give more clarity on how we rank the different businesses in the Capital Markets Day. We have just now launched the new organizational structure. It will be implemented basically from the 1st of January across the group finally. So it's too early to give any input on that externally. But I would also like to say that if you are in stability, it doesn't mean that it's a bad business. Even a good business could be in stability. I would even say that our D&E business was in stability phase. It's a very good business, but we didn't really know what to do with it. It wasn't growing for us. We were not the right owner for it. So that's why the decision was basically to offload it and reallocate those proceeds into where we are stronger and have a stronger market position. So it doesn't mean that if you are instability that you're a bad business. But in general, of course, we would like to move all our businesses into the growth scenario or strategic mandate. But we have a range of different businesses also within the different divisions. So there's a lot to go through here and to set up with the business areas and the divisions themselves. So we have to come back with that on the Capital Markets Day. Mikael Laséen: Okay. Fair enough. And just curious here about the book-to-bill ratios for the MI segment, if you can maybe comment on that or other areas where you have bookings leading sales? Mattias Stenberg: At the moment, we don't have -- I don't have the information with me now, but we'll come back to you directly afterwards in a sense. Anders Svensson: We will come back to you afterwards and give you the facts. Operator: We will now take the next question. And your question comes from the line of Ben Castillo-Bernaus from BNP Paribas. Ben Castillo-Bernaus: I guess a couple for Mattias to start with on the Octave business. Obviously, some headwinds there from the transition from licenses to SaaS. I just wondered what's your assumption on how long you expect that to take? And so you're sort of mostly SaaS business? And then I guess, related to that, the margin headwinds that we're seeing there at the moment. Obviously, there's some one-off costs going through there. I guess if you look out to 2026 and the sort of margin trajectory, what's your working assumption at this point in time? Mattias Stenberg: Yes, good questions. But what you said I had to be boring and answer you will get to know in the Investor Day in Q1, right? I'm not prepared to give outlook at this point. But we will lay that all out in detail at the Investor Day. Ben Castillo-Bernaus: Okay. I'll try one maybe that can be answered. Just on Autonomous Solutions, obviously, super strong performance there this quarter. How much of that was kind of anticipated and predicted, if you like? And was there any kind of one-off in there that we should think about just in that performance? Mattias Stenberg: Yes. Thanks. If you look at Autonomous Solutions, I mean, we, of course, know our order intake, right? So this -- our result was quite expected internally. Very strong order intake in aerospace and defense area. Also Mining has been very strong, and you can see that also, I think, in related companies reporting Mining numbers also on very good levels. So in general, the underlying markets in here are doing very well. And we have a good order intake in those markets that will also generate a good performance going forward. So we expect Q4 to also perform well. Q4 has a bit tougher comparable, so it will not be on a similar level, but we expect a continued strong market demand within Autonomous Solutions. And as I mentioned, the weakness we see in Autonomous Solutions is agriculture, which is in a quite serious downturn globally. And that weakness is also expected to continue during Q4. So we see a relative similar business climate in the fourth quarter. Operator: We will now go to our final question for today. And your final question comes from the line of Magnus Kruber from Nordea. Magnus Kruber: I just wanted to get back to the delta between impairments and -- or amortization capitalizations in R&D. So is the message that it will be relatively similar in the coming quarters, but gradually over time, it will narrow. And if that's the case, do you expect your new strategy will be able to offset this headwind on the margin side in the coming, say, 2, 3 years? Anders Svensson: Yes. Thanks, Magnus. Yes, that's correct. So given that we are releasing lots of new products to the market, like the TS20 now here in October, for example, we see that amortization of those products released will then completely net the gain that we will get from this impairment. So this impairment by itself will not move basically the amortization and capitalization gap. It will be on the same level in Q4 and in Q1 as it was in Q3. So that's correct. And then going forward, we expect, of course, these new products to generate higher sales numbers. And that is how we will compensate the shrinking gap between amortization and capitalization. And I want to make clear that to capitalize R&D is not dangerous if you capitalize good R&D, then that's the way it should be done, right? And then you take the cost over the life cycle of the product. So that's completely right in how it should be done. The dangerous thing is to capitalize and then not release the product and try to fix it and further capitalize a product which is not good. And then when you release it, you don't get the sales and you only get the amortization. So that is the danger. And that is what the new management structure will make sure that we avoid going forward. Magnus Kruber: Fantastic. That's very clear. And with respect to the EUR 110 million savings, could you characterize a little bit on how the sort of we should expect this to be filtering through 2026? Is it more linear or back-end loaded? Or what's the character of the implementation? Anders Svensson: I would say it's very linear. So you can model in linear with probably less in Q4 than going forward. Magnus Kruber: Perfect. And then just a final one, Geosystems China, I think you said down 20% or something, if I read that right. How do you characterize that slowdown? How long it has been going on? And is there any element of that, that's structural compared to cyclical, would you say? Anders Svensson: I would say it's generally cyclical connected to the large infrastructure projects like the rail. It's impacting very much for Geosystems. In China, we don't have good sales of our whole offering portfolio. We have good sales of the top tier of our offerings, the most sort of precise measuring equipment. That is what we sell in China. On the mid-tier offering, we have very strong local competition. So we have a very little footprint given that we don't have local manufacturing, local R&D, et cetera, within Geosystems. So that's why we get so heavily impacted when there is an effect on those type of industries. And it's been going on now for what is it, could it be something 12 months? Mattias Stenberg: 12 months, round about. Anders Svensson: Yes, that we see this effect coming in for Geosystems. And of course, since this is our top offering, that also gives a weaker mix for Geosystems because we have best margins on these top-tier products because we don't have any competition basically. So that impacts Geosystems mix negatively. And you can also see that in the year-on-year drop in Geosystems in financial performance when it comes to operational margin. You can see the effect there as well of the lack of sales of those top-tier products. Operator: I will now hand the call back to Anders Svensson for closing remarks. Anders Svensson: Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for attending, listening and putting good questions for us. Our next report will be on January 13th -- 30th, sorry. Thanks. Good correction, January 30th, next year. So hoping to see you all then. And until then, be safe. Operator: Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Sika 9 Months 2025 Results Conference Call and Live Webcast. I am Mathilde, the Chorus Call operator. [Operator Instructions] The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Dominik Slappnig, Head of Communications and Investor Relations of Sika. Please go ahead. Dominik Slappnig: Thank you, Mathilde, and good afternoon, everyone, and a warm welcome to our 9 months results conference call. Present on the call today is Thomas Hasler, our CEO; Adrian Widmer, our CFO; Christine Kukan, Head of IR; and Jomi Lemmermann, IR Manager. We are excited to share with you the highlights and key messages for the 9 months. Earlier today, we published our results and made the investor presentation available on our website. With this, Thomas Hasler and Adrian Widmer will provide further details on the results and the outlook. Afterwards, we will be ready to take your questions. I hand now over to Thomas to start with the highlights of the 9 months. Thomas Hasler: Thank you, Dominik. And also from my side, a warm welcome to this afternoon call. And let me quickly summarize the publications of today and some highlights underlying that we would like to share with you this afternoon. Sika has delivered a resilient performance in the first 9 months in a market that has -- remains to be dominated by uncertainty of various kinds. We have been able to increase our sales by 1.1% in local currency despite a heavy impact from our China construction business with a double-digit decline. Also this year, we are facing an unprecedented foreign currency impact. It's almost 5% and primarily due to the weaker U.S. dollar. But let me summarize a little bit our regions. And here, starting with EMEA. EMEA has seen for the whole year so far, a very nice double-digit growth in the area, Africa and Middle East. This is in line with the trend we have seen from last year, and it's strong also to continue. At the Eastern Europe business, we see green sprouts of growth. Eastern Europe is moving back to growth. It's mainly coming from the residential, so from the retail side, but it is clear this has picked up in pace and will also support the future evolution in EMEA. The region overall has reached 1.5% organic growth in the first 9 months. Americas on the other side, offers huge opportunities in the U.S. Here, we are collecting everyday data center opportunities that are unprecedented and growing and are not impacted at all by the uncertainties that are influencing other segments. The data center business has become a cornerstone of our direct business in the U.S. Just similar to our infrastructure business, which is doing very well in the U.S. Also here, we see more and more the impact of the Infrastructure Act that is delivering us opportunities from the East to the West Coast. We also see that the U.S. currently has some uncertainty that holds back on the reshoring. But here, plenty of these projects are ready to start, and we are also expecting that soon there will be more clarity and then production or construction start -- can start soon. We also see in the mature market of North America, a huge backlog in refurbishment, which is an opportunity to come soon as this backlog cannot pushed out very long. When I come to Asia Pacific, this is the region which has been most challenged, mainly influenced by the decline in our China construction business. If you would take the China construction business out of the equation, actually, the region, Asia Pacific would have been the region with the highest growth -- organic growth of around 4% in local currency. This comes from Southeast Asia and India with high single-digit growth. But as I mentioned, the China business is challenged and also we have taken here decisive measure to take here the margin and profit orientation above the volume orientation. But let me now move further into the P&L. And here, I would see the material margin increased to 55%, a significant demonstration of the synergies that we have been able to further increase from the MBCC and other acquisitions, efficiencies in our operations, and also a good cost management on the input cost side. This has also then trickles down to the EBITDA margin, which has rise by 10 basis points to 19.2% compared to prior year. Also here, the bottom line impact by the FX is quite significant. It is almost CHF 100 million when we look at the EBITDA alone. As mentioned before, we are taking decisive actions. This is in line with our manage for results key principle. We introduced our Fast Forward investment and efficiency program today, which builds on our leadership position. It will enhance customer value. It will improve operational excellence through digital acceleration and therefore, drive growth and profitability in the future. This program is built on a few blocks like investments CHF 100 million to CHF 150 million in the coming years. It is also coming with a shorter-term oriented structural adjustments in markets where we see ongoing weak momentum. Here, the China construction most pronounced, where we are making adjustments, which come with one-off costs of roughly CHF 80 million to CHF 100 million in '25 and the workforce reduction of up to 1,500 employees. The program overall will drive annual savings of CHF 150 million to CHF 200 million per annum with the full impact to come then implemented in the year of 2028. But now I hand over to Adrian to provide us more details and flavors to the financial 9 months performance. Adrian Widmer: Thank you very much, Thomas, and good afternoon, good morning to everybody attending. After Thomas' highlights, I would like to now put additional insights here to the financial results. In a market environment that remains challenging, as we have heard, we have achieved a modest sales growth in local currency of 1.1% in the first 9 months of the year, driven by acquisitions, while organic growth was flat year-to-date, owing to a minus 1.1% decline in Q3, driven by China. Without China, organic growth year-to-date in local currency was 1.7% or close to 3%, including acquisitions overall. Acquisition growth primarily came from the initial contribution of the 5 transactions we have consummated this year, including some residual impact of last year's bolt-ons, overall adding 1.1% of additional growth in the first 9 months of 2025. Sales were clearly adversely impacted by foreign exchange effects, especially as mentioned, related to a weak U.S. dollar, but also the RMB and the general strengthening of the Swiss franc. Overall, adverse foreign exchange effects reduced local currency growth by 4.9 percentage points in the period under review with a Q3 impact of minus 5.9%, slightly improved from a more significant impact in Q2, but still above the overall run rate. Corresponding growth, therefore, in Swiss francs was minus 3.8% for the first 9 months. Looking at the regions, region EMEA showed a similar Q3 trajectory as in the first half year, growing 2.1% overall, 1.5% organic and 0.6% through acquisitions. As Thomas has highlighted, business performance was particularly strong in the Middle East and Africa, where we recorded double-digit growth, but also with a good momentum in Eastern Europe. Here, foreign exchange effects at minus 3.3% year-to-date remained unchanged in Q3. Sales in the Americas region increased by 2.9% in local currencies, while Q3 growth was in line with Q2. Overall, year-to-date organic growth was 0.8%, while acquisitions continued to add 2.1% of growth in the period under review. While the business year got off a good start, U.S. trade policy measures triggered the mentioned uncertainty in the markets and slowed down momentum. While this caused Sika's growth in the U.S. and Mexico to soften, performance remained solid in Latin America overall, but also in the U.S., as highlighted by Thomas, some strong momentum in several areas. Here, adverse foreign exchange effects were most profound and reduced local currency growth by minus 7% in the region in the first 9 months, driven by particularly here the strengthening Swiss francs against the U.S. dollar of more than 10% starting in Q2, but also the devaluation of the Argentinian peso. Sales in Asia Pacific declined by minus 3.9%, while organic growth was minus 4.3% for the period. This result is mainly attributable to the challenging deflationary market environment in the Chinese construction sector for which we are focusing here on protecting our margins and driving efficiency. If we exclude here the impact, sales in the region would have been around 4% in local currencies. And also here, most -- or the strongest market was in India and Southeast Asia and also in Automotive & Industry, where Sika continued to expand its share in its technologies in both the local as well as international manufacturers. Also here, an M&A impact, namely the acquisition of Elmich contributing here 40 basis points of growth, an adverse foreign exchange impact at minus 4.6% reduced here local currency growth to minus 8.5% in Swiss francs in the first 9 months. Now turning to the full P&L and looking at material margin. Here, we have, as highlighted, driven up gross result by 30 basis points year-on-year due to also a very strong Q3 expansion, 55% of net sales in the first 9 months. This is also in spite of the deflationary environment in China and a small dilution of 10 basis points coming from M&A, but also overall material cost in recent months, also driven by our procurement initiatives showed a slightly declining trend. Reported operating cost this year, including personnel costs as well as other operating expenses, decreased slightly under proportionally in the first 9 months of the year versus the same period of 2024. Here, continued strong MBCC-related synergy trajectory as well as efficiency measures were offset by ongoing yet reducing cost inflation, currency impacts as well as initial onetime cost of around CHF 18 million in Q3 related to our structural cost reduction program. In looking at personnel costs specifically, which were down by minus 0.3% year-on-year on a reported basis, we have seen continued underlying wage inflation at around 3.5% per annum on a like-for-like basis. This is partially and increasingly being offset by cost synergies as well as operational and structural efficiency initiatives, but negatively affected by this initial fast forward severance expenses. Other operating expenses decreased strongly over proportionally by minus 6.5%, driven by accelerated efficiency measures and MBCC synergies. Overall, the integration of MBCC is largely concluded, while strong delivery of synergies is ongoing. Realized total synergies amounted to CHF 130 million in the first 9 months of '25 an incremental CHF 41 million versus the same period of last year, representing an annual run rate of CHF 166 million and therefore, well on track to push towards the upper range of the increased guidance of CHF 160 million to CHF 180 million for this year. Overall, EBITDA margin, as highlighted, increased by 10 basis points to 19.2%, up from 19.1% in the first 9 months. Absolute EBITDA decreased under proportionally by minus 3.3% from CHF 1.702 billion to CHF 1.645 billion due to foreign exchange translation effects, broadly in line with the effect on the top line also here highlighting our strong natural hedge and decentralized cost base in line with invoicing currency. Depreciation and amortization expenses were virtually flat in absolute terms at CHF 407 million or 4.8% of net sales as favorable translation effects were offset by PPA effects on the intangible side as well as a slightly higher depreciation rate. As a result, EBIT ratio decreased by 10 basis points to 14.4%, while absolute EBIT also was impacted by currency translation effects. If we turn below the EBIT, here, net interest expenses decreased and continued to increase significantly by CHF 16 million to CHF 105.5 million in the first 9 months. This compared to CHF 121.6 million in the same period of last year. Decrease is largely related to the scheduled repayment of our first Eurobond in Q4 '24 that was taken out for the financing of MBCC. And in addition, other financial expenses also showed a favorable development, representing a net income of CHF 10.2 million, up roughly CHF 7 million compared to the same period of last year, unfavorable hedging cost development, lower inflation accounting effects and also higher income from associated companies. On the tax side, group tax rate increased from 21.5% to 23.8% in the first 9 months. This is largely related to a positive onetime effect in the previous year. This is primarily the deferred tax benefit relating to a foreseen legal restructuring. And this year, we had also higher withholding tax on internal dividends distributed in the second quarter this year. As a result, net profit ratio was modestly down to 10.1% of sales. This is 20 basis points lower than last year. And also here, absolute net profit of CHF 870.9 million was impacted by currency translation effects. On the cash flow side, operating free cash flow in the first 9 months was CHF 630 million, which continues to be about CHF 220 million lower than cash flow in the same period of last year. However, cash generation in Q3 was strong and in line with last year. And the reduction here is primarily due to unfavorable currency movements compared to last year, particularly impacting here hedging of intercompany financing, but also partially due to a modestly higher seasonal increase in working capital slightly higher CapEx as well as higher cash taxes. For the full year, we expect to partially close the gap in Q4 and full year operating free cash flow in line with our strategic targets of higher than 10% of net sales, additionally supported by group-wide working capital initiatives. With this, I conclude my remarks on the 9-month financials and hand back to Thomas for the outlook. Thomas Hasler: Good. Thank you, Adrian. Yes, let me be short and brief on the outlook. We have published our outlook, and we confirm for '25, our expectation of modest increase in net sales in local currency for 2025. And our EBITDA margin of approximately 19%, including the one-off costs from the Fast Forward program, which I referred to earlier. The medium-term guidance, we confirm our profitability and cash flow expectation with reaching the band of 20% to 23% EBITDA in 2026. And we have created here a new guidance based on the revised growth assumptions for the market of 3% to 6% local currency net sales growth for the period of '26 to '28. Dominik Slappnig: We are -- with this, basically, we are now opening the line for your questions, please. Operator: [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Ben Rada Martin from Goldman Sachs. Benjamin Rada Martin: I have three questions, please. My first was on, I guess, the annual savings you've introduced today, the kind of $150 million to $200 million amount. Could you maybe break down the source of these between the two programs being the efficiency program and investment program? The second would just be on pricing growth. I assume you're starting to have some conversations around 2026 pricing. Could you maybe just give us a steer on what kind of level of pricing growth you expect at the group level? And then finally, on China construction, thank you for the disclosure today around that business. I'd be interested for our kind of housekeeping side, what share of the China business would be in construction at the moment? And what would be the split between, I guess, the channel side and the project side within China construction? Adrian Widmer: Yes. Thank you, Ben, here for the question. I'll start with the first one. We will provide more granularity here on, let's say, sort of the breakdown and the content of the impacts here then in November. But maybe at this stage, we expect about CHF 80 million out of the CHF 150 million to CHF 200 million to hit the P&L in a positive way in 2026. On maybe the pricing, and I'll take this one here, too, we had about 0.6% price increase year-to-date here, excluding China. China in a negative environment with negative pricing, but about 60 basis points for the first 9 months, which we're expecting to sort of roughly stay at that level for the full year basis. Thomas Hasler: Good. And to the third question in regards to our China business, our China construction business is about 70% of our China business. The remaining 30% is related to the automotive industrial manufacturing business, a business that is growing nicely in line also, let's say, with the transformation to e-mobility and the increased volumes overall. The 70% of the construction-related business, the larger portion, also roughly about 70%, 75% is the indirect business. It's the business that is related to the tile setting business in the residential area. And then the 25% direct business is especially strong with sensitive infrastructure programs and with the foreign direct investments of multinationals building in China. As we all know, the residential business in China has some challenges with huge inventories still being around and the foreign direct investment business has declined this year substantially, roughly 25%. These are the two drivers for the very soft business that we are facing and also then mandating that we take here decisive steps to structurally adjust to this condition as we don't see that quickly to resolve in the near future. Operator: The next question comes from the line of Priyal Woolf from Jefferies. Priyal Mulji: I just got two actually. So the first one is just on the rebasing of the midterm local currency sales growth. Would you mind just reminding us what the contribution was from market growth back when the target was 6% to 9%? Was it around 2.5%? And I'm just asking that in the context that you've obviously cut the midterm target by 3%. Are you effectively now implying that market growth will be flat or possibly even down for the next couple of years? Or is there something else sort of buried in the target cut today in terms of lower outperformance or lower pricing or lower M&A. And then the second question is just on the CHF 120 million to CHF 150 million investments that you're talking about. Is that CapEx? Or is there some sort of P&L cost involved with that? Thomas Hasler: Okay. Thank you, Priyal. I'll take the first one. And here, you are absolutely correct. Our former guidance was built on a 2.5% market expansion. And our current or our adjustment is basically correcting for the current, but also for the foreseeable future and here is more neutral or slightly negative. The elements of the strategy, the market penetration and the acquisition are from our side, unchanged, but the market has changed substantially longer than anybody could have anticipated. And therefore, we made this readjustment, but it's mainly -- or it is the market that really is unpredictable at this point, and we have taken that down to a neutral, slightly negative level. Adrian Widmer: Then the second one here, Priyal, on the investment program, the CHF 120 million to CHF 150 million. This is largely CapEx. There is about a 30% OpEx element as this is also relating to implementation of platforms, ongoing support digitalization, also training activities and so on. So about 30% of this is ongoing here OpEx, which we don't see as sort of onetime costs, but really sort of ongoing implementation and support cost. Operator: We now have a question from the line of Paul Roger from BNP Paribas Exane. Unknown Analyst: It's [ Anna Schumacher ] on for Paul today. I have two. Does the rightsizing China suggests you believe the slowdown is structural rather than cyclical? And will it impact your distribution strategy in the country? And secondly, when do you expect to see any benefits of reshoring in the U.S.? And how meaningful could it be? And what are your expectations for U.S. infra next year? Thomas Hasler: Okay. Thank you. Yes, I think on -- we have to differentiate in China between the two segments. I think the residential market expectation also for the next 1 or 2 years are still on a very low level. So this overbuild is not being addressed and it is also of less a priority for the Chinese government. So here, this is a market that will remain challenged probably for a year or 2 longer. And therefore, our, let's say, adjustments are structural in nature by now serving the reduced volumes with our market leader position that we have in that segment and also adapting the portfolio to the key application, the tile setting and waterproofing area, where we have a dominant position and also, let's say, discontinue low-margin sections of that market. The distribution channels are well established. They are the backbone that we serve. Here, actually, we are adapting that distribution channel to increase the spread and be able to further get closer to the market. So here, actually, we are increasing, and this is also helping to get better coverage and build on our market leadership in the segments where we have very good margins and where we also see possibilities to outperform the market. The construction direct business is a business where we believe that this is cyclical in a way that this foreign direct investment has an impact. But at the same time, we have in China also a more maturing, let's say, base infrastructure in place that requires more refurbishment and renovation. We are working in building up this in China with our competencies. So here, I would say the foreign direct investments, not that speculative how fast that will normalize, but we have there also possibilities to offset. And here, we are structurally adjusting also to be more dominant in the refurbishment, which when you look at mature markets like Europe or the U.S., this is the core of our business in construction. It has been relatively small in China so far, but that's a great opportunity for us to offset some other weaknesses. And then on the U.S., I'm always optimistic about the U.S. market. The U.S. market has seen a great start into the year. It has then been challenged with uncertainties and unpredictabilities, which many projects for industrialization or reshoring have been put on hold, ready to go. These projects have been, let's say, engineered to the level where it can start digging and building. And this is now a bit speculative question when will enough clarity be there. But I think with the tariff discussions, things are more and more becoming, let's say, not predictable, but it is easier for corporations to make conclusions. And I expect that we see in '26 on the reshoring, some nice progression as this holdback of projects as we see at the moment, will probably then be overwhelmed by also serving the increased demand. The consumption in the U.S. is not that bad. And I think this is a bit artificially pushed back. And here, I'm more optimistic that this will take place going into'26. Operator: The next question comes from the line of Elodie Rall from JPMorgan. Elodie Rall: I have three, if I may. First of all, on the China restructuring, you're talking about reducing headcount by 1,500. So can you give us a bit of color about how much that this represent as a percentage of China headcount? And also how much does this represent versus the CHF 80 million to CHF 100 million total cost savings? How much is China from there? And how could we think about China growth in H1, therefore, next year, given still the hard comp, I believe. So all the growth will be H2, I believe. Second, you talk about other weak markets driving this midterm growth outlook cut. So maybe you can elaborate on what they are? And lastly, on dividends, I was wondering if you would aim to protect the dividend level given additional cost savings -- costs this year. Thomas Hasler: Okay. Let me start with the China restructuring. The 1,500 employees and the largest portion from a single country comes from China. And it is a substantial reduction. It's a double-digit reduction of the Chinese workforce that is ongoing. This is something we are implementing without any further delay, but this is substantial. But we also have other markets that are -- or segments of markets is maybe the better way to put it because it's not countries or markets. It is actually segments that have softer performance. And here, this will then, in some, come up with the 1,500 employees. You asked about the China impact in H1 next year. it is clear that we will have some spillover from this year into next year as the effects that you have seen in Q3 and that we also expect to be significant in Q4 will, of course, compared to the base of the first half of '25, still be negative, but it will then also turn in the second half of next year and the impact will also, let's say, reduce. And as I mentioned before, Asia Pacific has a strong performance. It is the strongest if we exclude China. So here, we're also confident that Asia Pacific will contribute to the overall group growth next year, having strong engines in Southeast Asia and India. Then the dividend, maybe. Adrian Widmer: Well, maybe on the dividend, obviously, this is then a decision by the Board. This has not been taken yet, but I'm not expecting here that, let's say, the program will have a negative impact here on our dividend policy. Elodie Rall: And sorry, just to come back on China. How much does this represent in terms of the overall CHF 80 million to CHF 100 million cost savings -- cost this year, cost restructuring? Thomas Hasler: This is a bit too early. I mean we are going to really make an effort then in 4 weeks' time to give you more granularity about the program in regards to the investments, but also in regards to the cost split and so on. But it's clear, it is significant. I mean that's -- but it would be premature now to go into the details, but China is a large portion of the structural adjustment. Elodie Rall: And just to finish up on my previous question, what are the other markets that you have identified as weak? Thomas Hasler: Yes. The point is, as I mentioned, markets are soft. Weak is something I attribute to segments, segments where you see that, for instance, in Europe, we had a very good initiative on energy savings initiative coming from the Green Deal. These are fading. These are implications that we are, of course, considering also in our business. But the markets overall are soft. Europe is soft, but we see Eastern Europe is coming back. We also see that the northern part of Europe. So here, when I look into '26, I'm quite optimistic that we will see positive trends. Operator: We now have a question from the line of Ephrem Ravi from Citigroup. Ephrem Ravi: So two questions. Firstly, given the reduction in the overall growth target to Priyal's point, 2.5% was the market. But does this change your view on the market going forward? Or this is strictly a function of the fact that last 2 years, the growth has been less than your 2023 to 2028, 6% to 9%. So you're just resetting for the -- for what's already happened and your medium-term actual view in terms of how the markets are going to grow hasn't really changed. So it's just mainly a mark-to-market of what's already happened in terms of local currency growth so far? And secondly, China, I thought it was about CHF 1.2 billion of sales last year. And if it is down double-digit percentage, probably goes down to closer to CHF 1 billion. So given the low base, do you expect that to kind of be less of a drag going forward? So in theory, you should see faster growth just because of the mix effect of China not being a drag being on the numbers? Thomas Hasler: Yes. I think what is very important in our adjustment of our midterm guidance, this adjustment is related to our assumptions of the market compared to the original assumption. For us, most important is the outperformance of the market wherever they are. And this is in our strategy clearly outlined with the market penetration. We have not changed our ambitions on the outperformance of the competition and the market. And we also haven't changed our approach to be the consolidator in a very fragmented market through our acquisition activities, which I think also this year, we see with 5 transactions and the full pipeline of prospects. I think we are very confident on those elements where we have it in our hands. The markets, we had to reflect and also consider that there is also not a balancing act between the regions. We have a situation where actually softness is a global topic, with a few exceptions like maybe the Middle East, but not so relevant in the global scheme. So here, it is -- this is the driving factor for the adjustment is that we do reduce the market aspect, but do not change our commitment to outperform organically and then also on the acquisition, we will deliver as we originally have indicated. Operator: The next question comes from the line of Martin Flueckiger from Kepler Cheuvreux. Martin Flueckiger: Martin Flueckiger from Kepler Cheuvreux. I've got three questions. And I suppose I'll take one at a time. Firstly, I'd just like to go back to your statements regarding pricing in the 9-month period. If I understood you correctly, you were talking about 0.6% up year-to-date, excluding China. Now I was just wondering what does that mean for the group overall because that's really the number, I guess, that interests most people. That's my first question. I'll come back with the second one. Adrian Widmer: Yes. I mean, this means overall, it's pretty much a flattish picture for the group overall. Martin Flueckiger: Okay. And then secondly, you were talking about -- I think Thomas was talking about data centers being ramping up pretty rapidly in the U.S. Can you -- if I remember correctly, in the U.S., data centers account for about 8% of sales -- construction sales. Has that number changed in the 9-month period? And what kind of growth do you expect from this vertical in 2026? That's my second question. Thomas Hasler: Yes, you are right. This is about the magnitude. And this is the fastest-growing segment in construction and therefore, also logically, the contribution to the overall construction business in the U.S. is increasing, but it's about 8%. And what makes us very optimistic, I mean, these are also projects that are lined up. They are executed. They are actually rushed in execution whenever possible. So the lineup of projects that we have visibility gives us high confidence for the next 18 to 24 months. So this is a business that we like very much as it is also a premium business. It is driven by customers that buy not, let's say, products or systems, they buy peace of mind. They want to have undisrupted operations 24/7, 365. And that's a key element of our unique position in that market. Not only in the U.S., this spreads all over the globe because the owners of the data centers have very similar names at the end, and they don't want to take risks when they go abroad. And therefore, we are also leveraging that very much into Europe and other parts of the world. Martin Flueckiger: Okay. But sorry, just to clarify, when you say it's the fastest-growing segment in the U.S., I guess that's not really surprising. But I was just wondering whether you could tell us what kind of growth Sika is expecting from data centers in the U.S. in 2026. Do you have any broad idea at this point in time? Thomas Hasler: Of course, I have. And I would sum it up this is double-digit growing and this is significant. So it is not 10% or 11%. It's really a business that has drive and where we also put full focus on. This is the time. Martin Flueckiger: Okay. That's helpful. And then finally, my third question, could you talk a little bit about competitive pressures in construction chemicals this year, what you're seeing on the ground and whether it's intensifying or whether it's stable, whether there are any particular regions apart from China where you're seeing competitive pressures easing or worsening? Thomas Hasler: I think here -- I mean, China is a particular case, and I think Adrian indicated, China is, of course, price is super relevant. And as he mentioned, the overall group is at 0.6% without China. With China, we are at neutral. So China is a market in itself. But when I look at the rest of the globe, you can say -- when you have a booming market, pricing is probably less pressures because it's about getting the jobs done. We don't have booming markets everywhere. Therefore, I would say this is a normal situation where price is of high relevance, but nothing exceptional. Nothing -- would you say this is kind of strange. This is a normal behavior of markets when volume are slow, and this comes from small, medium, large. This is nothing in particular, nothing has really changed. But of course, when you have soft markets, then here, the tendency is that you have more pressure on price. But I think our performance in the first 9 months demonstrates we do have pricing power. We have here a leadership position that we can. This is probably for small players, midsized player, a bit less convenient as they are suffering more in soft times. Operator: We now have a question from the line of Cedar Ekblom from Morgan Stanley. Cedar Ekblom: I've got some follow-ups, please. On the growth for 2026, the exit rate at the end of this year is likely to be breakeven, maybe even modestly negative if trends don't really change in your core markets. I'd like to understand how we get to 3% in 2026. I think Elodie touched on this question, but I'd like to hear explicitly if you actually think 3% is the right number for 2026 based on what you see today, appreciating that things can change or if in 2026, we should actually be anchoring around a number below that range within the potential for growth to accelerate into '27 and beyond. So that's the first question. And then the second question, just in terms of the guidance on year-on-year margin improvement into 2026. So this year, I think it's 19.5% to 19.8% without the costs. And then if I've got the moving parts right, you have CHF 80 million of cost saves from the program next year. You have CHF 40 million synergies still to come if I look at the midpoint of what you're guiding to. So that gives me about 100 basis points of margin improvement. But I'd expect your leverage is still going to be negative. I mean, if I look at that chart on Slide 8, I think it is, you have negative operating leverage this year with growth that's probably not dissimilar to what the growth is going to be like next year unless anything doesn't change. So what other levers should we be thinking about into next year that actually allow us to see margins rise? Is there something we should be thinking about on gross margins improving? Is there some other kind of cost initiative that we should think about beyond this CHF 80 million program, just like sort of ordinary course of business efforts that's sort of coming on top of the CHF 80 million sort of special program? So those would be the two questions. Exit rate on growth is clearly below the 3%. How do we get to 3%? And then how do we actually get higher margins year-on-year even withstanding the 100 basis points or so of improvement that comes from this program plus synergies not yet come through from MBCC. Thomas Hasler: Okay. Thank you, Cedar. And I take the first question, and it's probably the most difficult question because it is clear. We don't know what's going on to happen next year. So let me phrase it in a way. This is not a guidance for next year. But if we assume everything equal, China, Europe, North America and so on, your assumptions are correct, that the exit rate at the end of the year will be low modest growth going into next year. We will still have spillovers from China. We will have benefits from trends that are supporting, but the magnitude to the lower end of our midterm or our adjusted midterm guidance is still there. So this is not yet a guidance, but it's also not a promise that every year of the coming 3 years will be within that range. I think the first year is probably the one that has, let's say, the highest challenge, but we also anticipate that there's a good likelihood in '27, '28, where we can substantially also move on that depending on how markets are evolving. So here, I think we have to be clear. This is not a straight line. This is also a line of recovery, which we can drive to some degree ourselves. I think we have a healthy acquisition pipeline. We see there some opportunities. I think also when we look at the pricing power that we have and also expecting that China is going to, let's say, be less impactful. So we have this element as well. But this is not a guarantee at this point of time that this 3% to 6% will be applicable to every of the consecutive years. Over the 3 years, we are very confident. But going into next year, we will assess the situation, of course, we will assess the markets and then we will establish our proper guidance for 2026. Adrian Widmer: And on the, let's say, the elements here of the margin improvements, and it's essentially the ones we're driving. I think there is also an opportunity on, let's say, the material margin, the gross margin to continue to drive. I mean, you have the synergies, as you mentioned, there will be another 30 to 40 basis points. And our improvement, let's say, bucket, which will clearly be driven here by Fast Forward program here, let's say, the sort of the CHF 80 million impact plus the ongoing activities we have, but there is not going to be an additional, let's say, program on top of it, but really sort of driving the different elements to an EBITDA of above 20%. Operator: We now have a question from the line of Arnaud Lehmann from Bank of America. Arnaud Lehmann: Could we talk a little bit about the gross margin? I guess that was quite a solid performance in the third quarter. I think a 5-year [indiscernible] when there was back in Q3 2020. So is this the new normal? Is 55%, you believe the new normal going forward for Sika and into 2026? That's the upper end of your historical range? Or do you think there could be upside to this? My second question is coming back on the Fast Forward plan. Is it something you've been thinking about in the last years or in the last months, let's say, was it something you were going to do anyway? Or is this more of a reactive move on the back of the recent decline in Chinese volumes or maybe a little bit of both? And the third question and last one on -- you hinted in the previous question around M&A activity. Considering the slower trends in underlying markets, do you think you could ramp up M&A activity while remaining within the criteria of your A- credit rating? Adrian Widmer: Let me take here the first one. Thanks, Arnaud, for the question. I think here, of course, the 54% to 55%, that's is for us clearly sort of also a range where we sort of monitor and steer the business. I mean it's never been sort of a very sort of dogmatic, let's say, hard target. And I think there is several elements obviously impacting here material margin, which, again, for us is an important element to steer the business. I think we're obviously here that the pricing element, selling value, driving innovation, also being able for us to position our solutions at the higher value point is important and an ongoing activity. I think on the input cost side, we have more recently seen, I would say, a more favorable picture also driving here clearly initiatives to improve it. So I think there is obviously a bit of upside here on the material margin, although this is influenced by many sort of different elements. So I think it's obviously something we actively steer as one of our here profitability buckets overall. Thomas Hasler: Okay. Then Arnaud, on the Fast Forward question, it's an interesting question because it has both elements. Digitalization is something we have highlighted as a megatrend in our strategy. And we are doing quite well in progressing. We are doing -- we bring digital solution. We just announced this week our Sika Carbon Compass. You can say, yes, we do. We are implementing SAP across the globe. But honestly, the speed of adoption, the speed of implementation is, in my view, not the speed that I would like to see. Digitalization has a different speed than construction industry and the construction industry is our great opportunity to be here the unprecedented leader in digitalization. So this has been, let's say, something I have observed over a longer period of time than 2, 3 months. And I see this as a great opportunity here to make firm steps, invest into the customer value. The customers are challenged in many different ways. Digitalization can ease, let's say, those complexities, can make business easier to execute and focus on core things. I think this is something that we want to drive, and this is the opportunity to integrate it also into this fast forward program. We have done great. I mean, Sika has a unique data pool. It's the leader in the market, the innovation leader, it's the market leader. We have data all over the globe. We are creating a pool that we can exclusively use to do data mining and leveraging those competencies. So for me, I'm a big fan of this digitalization, and I'm happy that Fast Forward gives us now also the possibility to accelerate substantially, let's say, on the tools, on the solutions, but also upskilling our organization that we also here can adopt much faster than in a regular environment. The other part, let's say, the China, the restructuring in general is something that has become in line with our, let's say, guidance adjustment for the midterm. Markets are soft, markets, we cannot change them. But in markets that are soft, this is the best time to make substantial adjustments. This is the time to act because when you act at this time out of a position of strength, you can then -- when backlogs are worked off, when markets are turning, you are in the strongest position to benefit from a boom in construction that will come, that has to come. The underlying demand is there. It's not served. So it is also a point that came to our realization over the course of this year and then more pronounced in the second half, which ultimately results in this Fast Forward program with the two elements that are super relevant, short term improvements, but of course, then also more midterm, let's say, benefits for the customer, driving our growth and utilizing the unique, let's say, digital footprint that we can have and that we want to have going forward. This is something I consider these digital capabilities, a key competitive advantage that we are going to achieve. Here, size matters. The globalization matters. We have a global input. We have it from Japan, China, India, Middle East, Europe, North and South America. Now all these bundled together gives us huge opportunities, which I want to tackle with our Fast Forward in an accelerated way. Arnaud Lehmann: And on M&A? Thomas Hasler: Sorry, M&A. I think here, I come back to the prior question. I mentioned smaller and midsized companies are more challenged when it comes to pricing power in soft markets. And we see here a clear, let's say, pain level reach for small and midsized player that they are considering selling their companies, even so it is probably not the best time to get the best price, but they hang in there and they consider selling much more now than maybe a year or 2 ago. And yes, we do have here also opportunities to, let's say, to acquire for attractive multiples business that maybe a year or 2 ago would have rejected to entertain. And I do think with our strong cash generation that we also have the ammunition to serve those increased possibilities. But it's also -- I think as always, every challenge has its opportunity. The opportunities on M&A are excellent, and we have the power and the will also to take advantage. Operator: The next question comes from the line of Ghosh, Pujarini from Bernstein. Pujarini Ghosh: So I have a few. So my first question is on the EBITDA margin guidance for this year. So without the restructuring costs, you have not cut your margin guidance. And in 9 months, you've done 19.2%. So to get to the bottom end of the range without the restructuring, you would need to do something like 20.5% in Q4. And looking at the historical trends, we've never seen such a big jump between Q3 and Q4. So could you explain why this year might be different and the various levers that you could pull in Q4 to get close to your target? And my second question is just a housekeeping. So what is your current guidance on the tax rate for the full year and for future years? And finally, coming back to the China restructuring plan. So could -- so of the CHF 150 million to CHF 200 million cost savings, could you give the split between how much of this would come from the restructuring in China and how much from the investment program that you're going to do? Adrian Widmer: Thanks, Pujarini. I'll take here the question one by one. On the 2025 EBITDA guidance here, I think a couple of points. On the one hand, you're right, the 19.2% here in the first 9 months. As I mentioned here before, we have about CHF 18 million of here one-off costs already included in Q3. So that's one element that basically puts here, let's say, the anchor at 19.4% and also in terms of, let's say, the one-offs we're guiding for the CHF 80 million to CHF 100 million, not everything is EBITDA relevant. We have about 25% to 30%, which is more sort of write-downs and impairments overall, which obviously then for Q4, yes, means, of course, a solid profitability quarter to, let's say, get at least here to the lower range here of the 19.5% to 19.8%. On the tax rate, here we had in previous years as reported, also one or the other positive impact, one-off effect. I'm expecting here for this year sort of around 23% in terms of the overall tax rate, which is also the level here of the next years to be expected roughly. And thirdly, on the question here of, let's say, sort of the China impact and the breakdown, again, I would like to defer here the answer and more granularity then to our November event where we will provide more sort of granularity on the various aspects of the program. Operator: We now have a question from the line of Patrick Rafaisz from UBS. Patrick Rafaisz: Two questions. One is on your cash conversion targets. You confirmed the 10% plus for this year. I was just wondering with the extra spending for the Fast Forward program, both on the cost and the CapEx, would you already fully commit to a 10% plus cash conversion also for '26? That's the first question. Maybe related to that, can you also talk a bit about the phasing of these investments? And then the second question would be on China and the portfolio adaptation you talked about. Can you add some color around the share within the China business that we are talking about that you are exiting due to the maybe market conditions or too low profitability? And also how long that will take to implement? Adrian Widmer: Good. Well, let's -- thanks, Patrick. I'll take the first two on the cash conversion, yes, clearly also confirming for '26 here, the targets to remain in place in terms of the cash conversion of at least 10% of net sales. Obviously, here, there is an additional element of CapEx, but that will be within that threshold. Second one on the phasing, again, I'll try again to convince you that we will provide more granularity then on the various sort of elements of the program, also the impact and the phasing then at the end of November. Thomas Hasler: Good. And then Patrick, on the China business. Our China distribution business is built on exclusive distributors all over China. And with the start of the softness of the market, our China team has tried to introduce, let's say, lower-margin trading products to support our distributors so that they can take a bigger share of wallet. And this came, of course, at the backside that the top line was then still showing some progression, but dilutive on material and profit margin. And this came then to a level where we had to say this needs to be reversed. So this has been a rather short-term element that has been introduced, and it is also something that we can flush out relatively soon. But it will be visible this year and next year as we -- some part is still in this year from the first half, and it will be out in the second half next year. So we will have some comps there that are maybe not so clear to read, but this is rather something that has been used tactically, but had to be revised. And that's what I mean with the core range. The core range, which is our tile shaping range and waterproofing range, which we produce ourselves and not tolling products that are adjacencies. Operator: The next question comes from the line of Alessandro Foletti from Octavian. Alessandro Foletti: Just on the automotive business, maybe we don't speak much about it. Obviously, it has been growing strongly in China, but how is it doing in the other regions, particularly also, yes, Europe and the U.S., I would guess. Thomas Hasler: Yes. I take that lately. I think, yes, we haven't talked much. But as you have seen, our growth in the industrial area is at organically 0.8%. It is doing better than our construction organically. It has here support from China, but also our business in Europe and in North America is holding strong despite a declining volume situation. And also, especially in Europe, we have still, let's say, a bigger, let's say, variation of models in the market, which means we are carrying more complexity serving, let's say, our customers. And despite that, we can still have above the build rate top line and especially also maintain a very healthy bottom line in that business. It is having a different direction. I think in Europe, we see also going forward, probably a comeback of the incentives for the electrification. This will be very positive. Germany is considering this for the years to come. So I'm on the automotive side in Europe, with the conversion, we will have more contribution. We have more opportunities. So I think we will see a positive trend in Europe. And in North America, we have there a bit the holdback with the tariffs. The automotive business in North America is highly, let's say, linked between the three countries with the supply chain. We serve the market out of Mexico and of the U.S. But also here, there's a different demand. The electrification is less of a relevance. It is truck and SUVs, pickups are relevant. These are for us higher contribution vehicles anyhow. But we also expect that when the new North American trade agreement is finalized, which hopefully takes place by the beginning of next year, then there will be also clarity and investments in automotive so that they can come back with competitive offerings to the end market, which at the moment is hesitant to buy in North America. I'm optimistic. I mean the business also in Brazil is doing very well. The business in Southeast Asia is doing very well. They are, of course, of smaller volumes than the three main markets. But I think we will have year-over-year, nice contribution from the automotive or industrial side. Alessandro Foletti: Right. But I'm not sure I get it right. It seems from your talk that maybe both in Europe and the U.S. is maybe still slight negative or flattish? Thomas Hasler: Yes. Yes. I mean the build rates are minus 3%, minus 4%, the car build rates. And we are flattish in Europe and slightly below in North America. Operator: We now have a question from the line of Yassine Touahri from On Field Investment Research. Yassine Touahri: Just two questions on my side. We've seen oil prices coming off over the past couple of months. Does it mean that we should see limited raw material inflation in -- at the beginning of 2026? Or -- and also a relatively muted pricing environment? Should we think of the coming quarter being close to what we've seen with relatively prices up a little bit and costs broadly in line with this pricing? And then my second question would be on the competitive landscape. Do you see -- I think some of the largest building material company in China, CNBM and [ Conch ] have started to invest in mortar, in construction chemicals. Do you see competition in China being tougher today than it was 5 years ago? And another one on this -- on the competitive landscape. I think Kingspan in the U.S. is planning to open a PVC roofing membrane next year. Do you think it could have an impact on your activity? Or do you believe they will target different segments? Thomas Hasler: Okay. I think the first question was on oil prices, right? Yassine Touahri: Yes. And whether it means that we should continue to -- we could continue to have an environment with limited price increase and limited cost inflation. Thomas Hasler: Yes. I mean we -- this is quite volatile. It is low at the moment. This is, in general, for us a positive. But I would say it's limited. I mean, this is also what we have talked about this year. There is -- some commodities have some softening, but others are still increasing cement, for instance. So I think on the input side, I think we are having here as far as we can predict, we have a relatively stable environment. So that is giving us also the possibility to make our price adjustments in line with our margin expectation. So I'm not concerned. But of course, things can change if one source comes unavailable and prices could rapidly move upwards. But at the moment, it's not a major concern. The -- and the second question was on the competitive landscape in China. I mean, here, you have to see that we are the only remaining sizable international construction chemical player in China for years. This is not just yesterday or the day before. This is our position in China. We have an exclusive position in the direct construction market. This is -- these are the higher-end construction. I talked about the multinationals, but I also talk about, let's say, sensitive infrastructures, nuclear power plants and others, airports and so on. So we have been able -- I mean, there are thousands of players in China and super aggressive in all aspects, but we have been able to hold strong in this market. And I believe our possibility to benefit through our, let's say, global excellence in a market that is maturing in a market that is also demanding higher building codes. The government is pushing for higher building codes as they see the adversal effect of cheap, let's say, infrastructure built 10 or 20 years ago. And we have a reputation in China that is outstanding, and we can also enlarge our addressable market in China through this trend. So this is on the direct side. On the indirect side, I talked about our distribution. I talked -- but you have to see that this is an application where our company has a market-leading position in China. Our brand, our international brand stands for reliable products to the homeowners. Homeowners, they buy, let's say, expensive tiles from Italy and homeowners do care that they are installed with a brand of trust. That's our unique -- of course, our products are up to the highest standards. But it is also our network that involves not only the applicator, but also the owner bring across this value. And this is very difficult for, let's say, the mainstream Chinese competitors to attack us. They attack themselves. So it is Oriental Yuhong and Nippon Paints that are crossing each other's way left and right and through brutal price war try to steal each other's market. Our market is much more protected through our unique positioning with our brand in China. And then... Yassine Touahri: Kingspan, yes. Thomas Hasler: I think -- I don't know if I should comment. I mean, I don't see it as a threat, not at all. I mean the North American roofing market is huge, and it has sizable players. I mean, sizable. And we are active in a very, let's say, clear designated area with large commercial buildings, where we have a reputation, where we have specifications, where we have applicators, I feel well protected. I have no fear. But if you go in such a market where there are the big boys playing, I would say I have respect for the courage to go into that market, but that's not me to comment and it's not me to make assessments there. It is an attractive market. I agree. It is for us, a fantastic market. But I think we have here also a unique position with our focus on the high end on durable and sustainable solutions with owners, with the focus on clear commercial large-scale roofs. Dominik Slappnig: Thank you very much. I think this brings us to the end of our call. We take this opportunity as well to highlight the date of our Fast Forward Investor and Media Conference on November 27. The conference will be held in Zurich, Tüffenwies, and it will start at 10 a.m. CET. So for all these who would like to fly in and out the same day, I think this will be possible. With this, we thank you for listening to our call and for your interest in Sika. We wish you all the best. Thomas Hasler: Thank you. Adrian Widmer: Thank you very much. Bye-bye. Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call, and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.
Operator: Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Eni's 2025 Third Quarter Results Conference Call hosted by Mr. Francesco Gattei, Chief Transition and Official Officer. [Operator Instructions] I'm now handing you over to your host to begin today's conference. Thank you. Francesco Gattei: Thank you, and good afternoon. Welcome to our Q3 2025 results call. Our results are a further confirmation of the successful execution of our distinctive and consistent strategy and innovative business model. We continue to generate growth and value, both from our traditional energy activity, such as E&P and also from emerging opportunities in the evolving energy market. In particular, the 8.5% year-on-year growth in production results directly from our consistent long-term focus and investment in E&P. We are delivering material progress against ambitious strategic objectives and Q3 was a further proof of tangible momentum in this respect. I will comment on our financial results in a little more detail shortly. However, it is very pleasing we have positive news to report from each of our main operating segments. Combining the excellent financial and operating performances and the ongoing progress in valorizing our businesses, we're also able to announce a further improvement of our balance sheet and a higher share buyback. Focusing on a few of the strategic highlights, I would especially pick out. At the beginning of August, Azule Energy, our business combination with BP in Angola and Namibia, began production from its operated Agogo West Hub development with the FPSO coming on stream only 29 months after FID, almost a year ahead of our plan. Indeed, this quarter was notable for the contribution from our upstream satellite start-ups with Vår reaching 400,000 barrel per day production with significant incremental production from the operated Balder X development that started up at the end of Q2 and Johan Castberg ramp-up, driving 45% year-over-year production growth. In October, we announced a joint venture FID on our Coral North floating LNG offshore Mozambique with startup expect in 2028. This leverages our successful Coral South development in production since 2022 with a remarkable 99.4% availability. And together with the 2 vessel in Congo, it will reinforce our leadership in this technology. I would also flag the progress we are making with YPF towards FID on Argentina LNG, employing the exact competencies I discussed in terms of floating LNG in Mozambique and Congo to access a material new integrated resource opportunity. A further successful example of Eni skills and strategy is in Ivory Coast, where in September, we completed the sale of a 30% stake of our operated Baleine field to Vitol, in line with our dual exploration approach. The world-class Baleine field was only discovered in 2021, but has already reached over 70,000 barrels per day from the first 2 phases with a planned Phase 3 to take gross production to over 200,000 barrels per day. Coral North, Argentina LNG and Baleine Phase 3 form just a part of a deep hopper of high-quality project in our development and pre-FID portfolio. In the quarter, we signed an agreement with GIP, a strategic partner in relation to a 49.99% stake in any CCUS holding, our consolidated global CCUS operation, confirming the significant growth and value creation potential in this transition business, unlocked by a further example of a version of our satellite model. Finally, in September, Eni received approval for its application to convert part of our Sannazzaro refinery into a biorefinery. It will add along with 3 sites in operation, 3 under construction and further identified opportunities, including our Priolo chemical sites to the targeted tripling of biofuel production capacity to 2030. This emphasized the meaningful growth in diversified income streams our transition segment is delivering. Turning now to our results. Q3 reflects remarkable progress in our key businesses and another excellent financial outcome. Pro forma adjusted EBIT of EUR 3 billion was 12% higher than Q2 and just minus 6% down year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms despite the 14% fall in crude oil prices. In the Upstream, production was 1.76 million barrels per day, up 6% year-on-year on a reported basis and 8.5% on an underlying supported by a new start-up and ramp-ups, good regularity and production optimization in the base. Pro forma EBIT of EUR 2.6 billion was consistent with the prevailing scenario with EBIT associated split reflecting the rise in production I highlighted at the Vår and Azule. In exploration, we have already added over 800 million barrels of new resource year-to-date. GGP reported another good quarter at EUR 279 million in pro forma EBIT in a quarter that is usually quieter, remaining focused on maximizing value and optimizing the gas and LNG portfolio. Our significantly reconstructed midstream business has become a highly consistent deliverer of financial performance. In our transition activities, Enilive reported EUR 233 million of pro forma EBIT, corresponding to EUR 317 million of EBITDA, around 23% up year-on-year in a quarter that is typically our best one for marketing, but also where we saw a recovery in bioomargin to pre-2024 levels. Plenitude pro forma EBIT of EUR 98 million was softer year-on-year, reflecting the effect of some of the retail incentives coming off, but partially offset by strong growth in renewable capacity. In transformation, refining returned to profit, helped by better industry margin and improved utilization, while chemicals, despite the continuing weak scenario, began to show some benefit from the restructuring now underway, albeit it is very early days. Adjusted net income of EUR 1.25 billion, effectively in line year-on-year came despite the $10 barrel fall in crude price and weaker U.S. dollar. That is a testimony to the growth and performance improvement in the business and a more efficient tax rate at 42% that reflects the impact of high-grading upstream production mix, the transition towards a more sustainable diversified overall income mix and the benefit of our restructuring and performance improvement initiatives. Cash flow from operations once again reflects efficient conversion of our earnings into cash, and we saw a Q3 working capital draw, reflecting our focus on efficient use of the balance sheet. Indeed, we have already realized a EUR 2.1 billion benefit to the balance sheet through prompt cash initiative in response to the weaker scenario. Gross CapEx in the quarter was EUR 2 billion, taking us to EUR 5.9 billion year-to-date. Net CapEx has totaled less than EUR 1 billion year-to-date. Outstanding agreed valorization yet to close primarily related to the agreed Ares investment into Plenitude for which we have completed all the condition precedent and with closing expected in early November, the sell-down in Congo and the GIP stake in CCUS, this totals almost EUR 3.4 billion. After EUR 560 million in share buyback and paying the quarter 3 dividend, net debt was EUR 9.9 billion, down again quarter-on-quarter and leverage stood at 19%. Taking into account the still outstanding announced portfolio action, pro forma leverage was 12%, equivalent to 11% gearing, a level at the minimum of the industry range. Looking ahead towards the full year, we are able to further improve some of our targets. We now expect full year production to be between 1.71 million, 1.72 million barrels per day, up from 1.7 million barrels per day, a 3% underlying increase versus 2024. We expect GGP pro forma EBIT for the full year to be over EUR 1 billion. We expect cash initiative and self-help and mitigating the impact of weaker scenario to deliver around EUR 4 billion benefit, up from EUR 3 billion previously. We confirm gross CapEx below EUR 8.5 billion, but we expect net CapEx on a pro forma basis to be less than EUR 5 billion, down from the EUR 6.5 billion, EUR 7 billion that we previously guided to. And we are raising expected cash flow from operation pre-working capital to EUR 12 billion from EUR 11.5 billion previously, representing an underlying EUR 1.3 billion improvement versus our initial guidance for the year, while we are narrowing our expectation of year-end pro forma leverage to 15%, 18%. Reflecting the strong underlying business performance, the balance sheet metrics and the proven capability of the company to execute its strategy in a very accretive way, we are raising the 2025 share buyback to EUR 1.8 billion from EUR 1.5 billion, of which EUR 840 million has been completed as end of September and around EUR 1 billion to date. This, as we have already done since 2022, effectively share the upside in financial performance we have generated in the year, preserve a conservative position in response to the uncertainty ahead and ensure our ability to invest consistently over the cycle for growth and shareholder value. In fact, Q3 represents all the major elements of our distinctive strategy in action in one place. We are competitively growing our key businesses. We are launching new projects while also securing further opportunity through our industry-leading exploration and technological know-how in the upstream and opening up new opportunity in the transition. Meanwhile, we are managing risk reward, realizing value through our dual exploration satellite strategy, allowing us to bring in down debt and share upside with shareholders. And with that, I am ready along with Eni top management here on the call to reply to your questions. Unknown Executive: Thank you, Francesco. Hello, everybody. We've got a queue of questions. [Operator Instructions] And we're going to start with the first question that comes from Biraj at RBC. Biraj Borkhataria: I have 2, please. The first one is in the Upstream. One of the surprises today was the really strong production figure. And at least according to my model, that's the highest figure you reported since the pandemic. So could you just unpack the moving parts there quarter-on-quarter outside of the strong performance from Vår? And in particular, I believe there was a TSC adjustment this quarter. Wondering whether you could quantify that and tell us if there's any sort of follow-through into Q4 and '26? And then the second question is on Chemicals. Just noted no improvement in the sort of underlying results despite the crackers being shut down. So what should we expect going forward? Should those losses start to reduce from Q4? Or are there sort of additional shutdown costs coming through? Francesco Gattei: Okay. I leave the answer about production and comparison versus previous quarter to Guido Brusco and clearly, the Versalis to Adriano Alfani. Guido Brusco: So the increase quarter-to-quarter, both sequential and year-on-year are due to, as you rightly pointed out to Norway, Johan Castberg and Balder X, but also the accelerated start-up in Angola with Agogo and better performance in the ramp-up of our project in Mexico, Ghana, Nigeria and also overperformance in Ivory Coast. This, along with strong operational continuity in all geographies and an optimized major turnaround plan, particularly in North Africa. So the combination of all these 3 elements resulted into this remarkable performance. Francesco Gattei: Now Adriano. Adriano Alfani: Yes, Francesco. First, thanks for the question. About the shutdown of the chemical plant, as we previously said in different investor call, we always say that the benefits of the shutdown of the cracker start to be materialized 100% after more or less 9, 12 months that we shut down the crackers. So considering that we have stopped Brindisi at the end of Q1 and Priolo at the beginning of Q3, we expect to see some benefits starting from the second half of 2025 that is in the ballpark of EUR 40 million, EUR 50 million compared to the first half of 2025. But most of the improvement we will start to see from the significant improvement from the second half of 2026 that will be materialized in more than EUR 200 million on a yearly basis. That said, the scenario remained very weak, and this is also the reason why despite the improvement on our cost base due to the restructuring, we are not seeing a major improvement in our results quarter-on-quarter because what we are saving from restructuring is compensating the lower scenario. Unknown Executive: Thanks, Biraj. We're going to move to Santander and Alejandro Vigil. Alejandro? Alejandro Vigil: Congratulations for the strong results. The first question is about the outlook in terms of production for the coming quarters because we are seeing a very strong exit rate of about 1.8 million barrels per day. If this could be a good indication of the level for 2026 of volumes? And the second question is about the LNG business. You are very active in new capacity in terms of LNG, the Argentina, Mozambique, the joint venture in Indonesia. Just if you can elaborate about your view about this potential risk of overcapacity and how you're managing your portfolio of contracts? Francesco Gattei: I will give it to Guido the answer. Guido Brusco: So yes, clearly, our exit rate is strong. We are envisaging an exit rate in the quarter between 1.78 million and 1.80 million. We still have quite a strong and visible pipeline of high-quality projects. We still have 2 start-up coming by the end of the year. One is the Congo LNG and also we have a gas project in Angola operated by Azule. We also have project already in execution, as mentioned by Francesco, Coral North and others in the UAE, Hail and Ghasha and some in North Africa, along with projects which are coming in Indonesia, but those are, of course, in the plan period and not in 2026. As far as the LNG portfolio, we have a target of 20 million tonnes per annum. And this target, we want to combine also with a very diversified portfolio of opportunity. Currently, we have LNG assets in Indonesia. We will have soon in Mozambique with Coral North. We have in Congo and we'll expand it in Nigeria, in Angola. And we are complementing this with portfolio with U.S. Recently, you may recall, we've signed a 2 million tonnes per annum contract with Venture Global. And of course, last but not least, Argentina. Argentina is a 12 million tonnes per annum project in the second largest and world-class asset, which is Vaca Muerta. We are doing it with YPF, and we are targeting to have an FID sometime next year. Unknown Executive: Alejandro, I got that mixed up because we're now going to Alessandro. Alessandro Pozzi, Mediobanca. Alessandro Pozzi: I have 2. If I can go back to the production. I'm aware the guidance for next year is provided with the full year results. But I was wondering, given the very strong exit rate, should we -- and also the additional start-ups you will have in 2026, should we assume a further increase from Q4 into 2026 before factoring in the new JV with Petronas? And while on the topic, can we maybe have an update on where we are in terms of negotiations with Petronas? Guido Brusco: So you can imagine, there are a lot of moving parts, but we can confirm what we said at the last capital market update. We have an underlying of 3%, which, of course, we confirm over the plan. Sometimes, this is not a progressive growth because project comes over cycle and -- but we can confirm that growth. As far as concerned, the Petronas deal, we are in very advanced negotiations, and we are planning quite soon to sign binding documents for the joint venture. Alessandro Pozzi: Can you confirm the contribution to the production for next year? Guido Brusco: This is part of the underlying 3% growth year-on-year. As I said, there are many moving parts. There are new projects, new entry like the JV of -- with Petronas. There is also -- there are also some further M&A operations. There are also -- of course, there is also the decline of the field. So overall, we confirm the 3% underlying. Unknown Executive: Thanks, Alessandro. We are going to move back to London now with Josh Stone at UBS. Josh? Joshua Eliot Stone: Two questions, please. Firstly, on the buyback. Can you just talk about the factors that went into your decision to lift it this quarter? Because clearly, your business has been performing better. But at least until recently, oil prices are on a declining trend. So was there any consideration made about maybe holding back some buyback for next year to conserve cash? And to what extent was that factored into your new buyback level of EUR 1.8 billion? And then the second question, Namibia. Just hoping to get some latest thoughts there after your recent well results at the Land finding gas condensate. And maybe if you could just share your latest learnings about the asset and what potential next steps could be in terms of appraisal and whether this could be a potential fast-track development in your view? Francesco Gattei: I will answer about the buyback and then give the floor to Guido for the Namibia questions. On buyback, you have seen that the policy that Eni has already, let's say, confirmed for a number of years is substantially to start with a buyback announcement during the Capital Market Day and then a policy of, let's say, driving or sharing the upside in different form. The upside is the upside related to scenario increasing the CFFO, but also upside related to the capability to perform the strategy faster to benefit of more valuable M&A and deleveraging. Actually, this has occurred 3 times in the last 4 years. And many of these cases was not related to the improvement of scenario that actually declined, but then the capability to do better in terms of execution. This year, we have already announced in July, if you remember, this potential improvement. It's, let's say, a quite unique position in the market. Nobody is able to raise its distribution in this time and then nobody is able to reduce debt during the same period, while executing a full effective strategy in terms of project and growth in different parts of the business. So we are extremely, let's say, happy to share this opportunity and this value creation with our shareholders. And we think that the EUR 300 million was a fair evaluation of the improvement. And clearly, this also proves that we are quite confident on the capability to manage any kind of downturn or soft price in the next year. And then I'll leave back to Guido. Guido Brusco: Yes. On Namibia, as you know, we drilled 3 wells, very successful. The first one, Sagittarius discovered hydrocarbon with no observed water contact. The second Capricornus, we've tested and we were surface constrained with a flow rate of in excess of 10,000 barrels per day. And the third one, Volans showed a high condensate to gas ratio, but -- and we found 26 meters of net pay of rich gas condensate. So 3 successful wells, which they've not only found significant hydrocarbon, but they are also located at a very short distance from each other, in conventional deepwater, less than 1,500 meters. So clearly, they offer an excellent prospect for future development. Unknown Executive: We're going to move to Al Syme at Citi. Al? Alastair Syme: Argentina LNG Phase 3, one of the big changes in Argentina has been this incentive regime for large investments or RIGI. What do you think this legislation does to improve the profitability? And I guess, maybe put another way, would the project work without that legislation? And then secondly, I just wanted to ask, given you've done this big asset transaction, Baleine and Congo FLNG for, I think, $2.65 billion. I'm wondering what the invested capital is -- that you're essentially selling, sort of what multiple of invested capital have you been able to sell this asset at? Francesco Gattei: On Argentina, I give the question to Guido, then I will answer. Guido Brusco: In Argentina, investment in shale are been made since more than 10 years. So in 2013, it started the investment cycle in Argentina, and this is far before the RIGI legislation. RIGI legislation, of course, is a big enabler, particularly for the export of the LNG. And so that's the legal framework, and we are confident with this legislation and with this framework to make an investment decision in the country. Francesco Gattei: About the Congo LNG, as you know from also the other transaction that we have already completed with Vitol. This is based on an effective date that is 1/1/2024. And therefore, there are investments in the meantime, but we do not provide this kind of level of details that will be clearly also part of the final settlement at the closing time. Unknown Executive: Thanks, Al. We're going to move to Irene Himona at Bernstein. Irene? Irene Himona: My first question is on Enilive, where clearly, you're seeing very strong biofuel margins, improvements in your throughput and utilization. Can you give us a sense of how those are evolving in Q4, please? And then perhaps if you can split the marketing versus biorefining contribution to EBIT in the quarter? And then my second question, going back to tax, but not the P&L tax, more the cash paid tax, which fell almost halved sequentially. Is there any guidance at all on that? Is it -- are we likely to see a reduction in that cash tax rate aligned with the P&L reduction? Francesco Gattei: About the -- I will answer about the tax, and then I will give to Stefano Ballista for the Enilive. You've seen that in the last year or years, there is an improvement in the tax rate, both on the -- clearly the reported tax rate and the cash tax rate. This improvement is mainly related to a transformation of the company with the contribution of different geography in the upstream and therefore, the capability substantially to have more production and more results coming from lower tax regimes in this segment. Clearly, the contribution of the transition business, the possibility of the increase of return in Italy related to the fact that there is a transformation activity going on with the possibility to recover the deferred tax effects and also the contribution of satellites that are cash neutral from this point of view. So all this is a structural change that impacted both the nominal tax rate and the cash tax rate. So we have already said that we are expecting in terms of tax rate an improvement versus what we originally thought. So now we are moving in the range between 46% and 48%, while about the tax rate related to the cash tax rate, we are moving around the 28% to 29%. And now Stefano, please. Stefano Ballista: Irene, thanks for the question. Yes, the strong result of Enilive in this quarter have been driven mainly by the significant improvement of the biofuel scenario, coupled with a very good asset performance capturing this increased value. In terms of value, we can think about the sort of 80-20 in terms of overall contribution. Deep diving on biorefinery and looking at the scenario. What's going on is a progressive rebalancing of the supply-demand dynamics. This is fully in line with the direction we expected. There are some key reasons, some structural key reason pretty much on demand. Demand is improving. On a yearly basis, in Europe, we see above 6 million tonnes on a yearly basis compared to the 4.5 million last year. And this improvement has been, let's say, concentrated in the second half of the year. The reason is related to sustainable aviation fuel. We mentioned in previous call, the need for getting logistics in place in order to deliver SAF to customers. This is exactly what's going on. On top, actually, there is also a drive of extra demand coming from the expectation of the deployment in several countries of the Renewable Energy Directive #3. An example, a key example is Germany. It has to be approved, but the proposal is very relevant. The most relevant thing is the ban, the proposed ban of double counting by itself, this means above 1 million ton of extra demand on top of the number I said before for next year. So these are the 2 key structural reasons. On the supply side, I want to mention another structural reason. It has been confirmed the duties for sustainable aviation fuel coming from U.S. There was a doubt in the first half of the year, this duty are there for HVO due to clear the tax credit that is in U.S. It has been confirmed it's going to be applied to SAF as well, and this is another reason strengthening the market. Unknown Executive: Very good. Thanks, Irene. We're going to move to Peter Low at Redburn. Peter? Peter Low: Maybe the first, just on disposals. Can you just confirm the expected time line for the remaining ones, so kind of Congo to Vitol and then the Plenitude stake sale. But then beyond that, should we think of those as being the end of large disposals? Or are there other positions across the portfolio you're working to monetize? And then just on the net CapEx guidance, you've lowered it for the full year, but it looks like gross CapEx is broadly unchanged. Can you perhaps walk through the moving parts that have allowed you to lower that net CapEx guidance? Francesco Gattei: Yes. About the portfolio, we can, as we have already mentioned, confirm that we are very close to cash in the EUR 2 billion related to Ares acquisition of a 20% in Plenitude. All the condition precedents were completed. We do expect to have this contribution in a period of weeks. This will imply substantially a benefit on our leverage in the range of more than 4%. On the other side, we are still clearly waiting all the natural process authorization for the other transaction, the one that is related to Congo that takes some more time. So this is still ongoing, but it is a process that is maturing progressively. And about the contribution for next year, clearly, this year was extremely, let's say, rich in terms of opportunity. We have benefit from disposal that we matured last year in terms of closing, and we completed for the cash in this year. And also, we were able to fast track some of our disposal within the year. This acceleration is also at the basis of the improvement in the net CapEx results. You're right that the gross CapEx are substantially in line with expectation. But clearly, they were revised down during the first quarter once we announced the first estimate for the cash initiative that includes also CapEx reduction. In terms of what are the future, the future is that the dual exploration model is a living model. So it's continued to generate opportunity. You know that we explore with high stake, and there is also some results already emerging in different geographies. You know also that in Indonesia, we have a 10% disposal on the assets that will not be included in the business combination. And clearly, we are also evaluating other opportunities that could come in terms of valorizing our portfolio and aligning capital. Another element that will be cashed in within the end of the year, I was forgetting is the contribution of the CCUS, so the deal with GIP. Unknown Executive: Thanks, Peter. We're going to move to Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs. Michele Della Vigna: And again, congratulations on the very strong results. Two questions, if I may. First, I wanted to start with biofuels. Very clear comment on RD. I was just wondering on SAF, if the mandatory blending does not increase from 2% until 2030, don't you see the risk that with new capacity coming on stream that market could soften over the next couple of years? And then I was wondering if you could give us perhaps a bit more visibility on what drives that EUR 1 billion upgrade in the cash initiative. And in case the macro deteriorates in 2026, how much flexibility do you see on your CapEx budget? And where do you think you could potentially cut some of your net investments? Francesco Gattei: Stefano for the biofuel. Stefano Ballista: Yes, Michele, thanks for the question. On SAF, for sure, is driven by the mandatory mandates, given the penalties -- underlying penalties. So this is, let me say, it's a given. On top of Europe, now at 2%, we got higher target like in U.K. already in place. Clearly, an increase sort of step-up of the target along the time line is going to help demand on SAF. This is something that could be addressed. On top, actually, there are demand like in Japan, this is a global market. In Japan, they approved the 10% in 2030. There are some discussion even in other country in order to get SAF mandatory at defined percentage given it's the only way to decarbonize the aviation sector. On top, actually, there are some sign on voluntary demand. This is going to be driven also by, let me say, the supportive incentives that at specific level will be put in place. An example is the Heathrow Airport, where half of the gap between jet, biojet and jet is supported with a limited amount clearly by the institution. This kind of approach is going to support demand. And then lastly, let me add, there is the CORSIA program. It's a program that has to be fulfilled by all the ICAO countries, all the countries that participate to the ICAO. Up to now, it's just voluntary. It's going to be mandatory from 2027, and this is going to drive demand above in countries that today doesn't have any obligation. In terms of overall demand supply, a biorefinery that can produce -- HVO can produce SAF. So there is flexibility is a core lever to address market evolution. We don't know exactly the growth, the demand of SAF, but there are clear mandates on overall HVO growth. And given current project in place and even current decision, let's say, of delay in terms of projects from other players on top of technical difficulties that other players are getting into in this new business and given current trajectory of overall biofuel, HVO and SAF, we see the market definitely a bit tight in the medium term. Francesco Gattei: Contrary, for the -- sorry, for the difference related to the estimate on cash initiative 2025, the previous one that was EUR 3 billion and now it's EUR 4 billion is substantially a mix of different factors. One is that we derisked some of the actions that we risked in the first half. You have to consider that we have a way to optimize or evaluate substantially our storage activity on oil, some ETB, so our trading activity on trading of oil. We have some additional value coming from swap of bond from fixed to variable, et cetera, et cetera. And the main contribution in this round in this last quarter is related to the additional initiative related to trading, another EUR 100 million that is EUR 300 million, another EUR 100 million that is related to this swap -- liquidity swap on our cash strategic pool and this EUR 400 million -- more than EUR 400 million that is related to the derisking of the previous cash initiative. So almost EUR 800 million are related to these 3 different items. About next year, I can tell you that the flexibility, the plan is under -- still under preparation, early phase of preparation. But generally, we are working with -- in the first year of the plan in a 20%, 25% flexibility. So we are speaking on a gross CapEx, something in the range of EUR 2 billion. Unknown Executive: Thanks, Michele. We're going to move to Henry Tarr at Berenberg. Henry? Henry Tarr: I had one really, which was around the GGP business and the sort of consistency of profits there. We've seem to have had much better profitability sort of through the summer and kind of consistent upgrades over the last couple of years. Is -- do you think this is a durable level of profit for this business? Or do you think it's related to -- so are there sort of structural changes post the change in your supply makeup that mean that this is a more durable supply or stream of profits? Francesco Gattei: Cristian Signoretto will answer. Cristian Signoretto: Well, yes, you're right. I mean, the third quarter has been a good quarter. And I would say, in this case, the major driver of the performance was what I would call the locational spreads. So in Europe, but also globally, we have taken advantage of premium market vis-a-vis the flexibility that we have in our assets in order to move the gas and LNG where the premium was actually higher. I think as we said, as Francesco said at the beginning, I mean, we have reengineered the business. Clearly, the lack of the Russian gas and our development of our new gas projects and LNG projects upstream have really changed the shape of our portfolio. We tend to be much more attentive to make sure that we can create enough optionality and flexibility in our portfolio in order to make sure that the new volatility environment that we are facing, and I think we will be facing in the future will be structurally creating headroom and opportunities for us to tap on. So I'd say, I mean, this is a trend that we will see continuing in the future. Unknown Executive: Thanks, Henry. We're going to move to Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley. Martijn Rats: Yes. A lot have been covered, but just 2, if I may. So I noticed that Rosneft has a 30% stake in Zohr. And I was wondering if you could say a few words on how -- if that has any impact on you as the operator of the project. Maybe not, but I just wanted to kick that off. And then the other one I wanted to ask about your European gas sales volume. They were down sort of 15% this quarter year-on-year. European gas demand is not very strong, but it's not that weak either. Is that due to the portfolio changes that you just alluded to? Or is there another specific reason for that decline? Francesco Gattei: Cristian, if you would like to answer, and then I will go back to the sanctions. Cristian Signoretto: Well, the drop in the European sales this year have fundamental reason is linked to the fact that we have terminated the contract with which we were selling gas to BOTAS in Turkey via the Blue Stream. This was linked to, let's say, the pipeline itself. So I mean, this is a business that we are trying to unwind also in terms of participation in the pipeline. So that is the biggest contributor to the sharp -- to the drop in the sales into Europe. On the other hand, I mean, as I told you before, I mean, the demand in Europe is shrinking. We are adjusting our portfolio to the new reality. We are much more focused on creating more value from the single molecule than clearly getting more molecules into the market. Francesco Gattei: And about the impact of the new sanction introduced by the U.S. administration, it's still very early because clearly, there are details that have to be analyzed and clearly, the full impact to be completely assessed. What we can clearly say is that we will ensure full compliance with the sanction. But we have to also take into account that we have a very limited interaction with these 2 companies in of our assets. And generally, we are speaking about minority stakes and nonoperated stakes. So we believe at the end that there shouldn't be any material impact on ongoing operation due to this sanction activity. Unknown Executive: Thanks, Francesco. Thanks, Martijn. We're going to move now to Mark Wilson at Jefferies. Mark Wilson: You speak to how this quarter is really seeing strategic initiatives coming through, certainly with the satellites in Norway and U.K., and that's been a number of years in the making. So I'd like to ask about what appears to be clearly another strategic angle, and that's the use of floating LNG. I'd argue you appear to be the leader in that concept now with the second Coral vessel sanctioned, Congo [ FMG ] coming on stream, just 33 months in Argentina, initial development being 2 vessels of an even larger capacity. We know there's certain security benefits and clearly, speed if Congo FLNG is anything to go by. But could you speak to the CapEx, OpEx and emissions intensity benefits versus production of FLNG versus onshore? And any improvements expected between the 2 Coral vessels? And I did note in the previous answer, you spoke to getting more value out of a single gas molecule. So I think that relates to it. Francesco Gattei: Yes, Guido can provide all the details. Guido Brusco: Clearly, we have built a technological hedge on floating LNG. We are currently the largest operator of floating LNG and results, both in terms of delivery and performance are outstanding. Just to name a few of them. On Coral South, we delivered the project on time, on cost despite the COVID and the uptime of the floating LNG is just outstanding. I was mentioned by Francesco in his speech, 99-plus percent. In Congo, we have 2, one in operations and one coming, and we've just sanctioned Coral North recently with the start-up expected in 2028. In terms of security, it's pointless to say that is safer and basically provides and disconnect completely from any turbulence from onshore, and we are seeing it how successful was the choice in Mozambique. In terms of cost, costs are -- I mean, we are in the deepest -- in the, I would say, steepest part of the learning curve. So if I compare cost from the first floating LNG and the cost of the project in -- of the future project in Argentina and the current project in Coral North, the reduction is significant. The industry is making significant progress in driving down to the point that we are reaching level comparable, if not better, in some geographies of the onshore LNG plant on a million tonne per annum basis. In terms of -- you said the emissions, of course, we are applying the best available technology. And in some cases, it's not the floating LNG, but I just want to mention one in Angola on the FPSO Agogo, we are basically -- we are actually capturing CO2 and reinjecting CO2 in the reservoir through the gas injection, which is used for gas recovery. So even on an emission basis, we are doing significant progress and driving down emissions on a unit production basis. Francesco Gattei: I will also add that it is an opportunity to exploit associated gas reserves in certain, say, conditional fields where this gas potential will not be improved, cannot be recovered. And this potentially could become a cap on oil production. This is exactly the case of Congo. So it's not just a matter of cost, but it's a matter of value towards the opportunity and the optionality that this technology will add to your capability to exploit resources. Unknown Executive: Thanks very much, Mark. And I think a subject we'll end up returning to. So we're going to move from Mark to Italy to Massimo Bonisoli at Equita. Massimo, are you still there? Massimo Bonisoli: Two questions left on Enilive. The first on new Sannazzaro biorefinery. Can you explain how the configuration feedstock and product profile differ from your existing biorefineries like Venezia or Livorno? And the second one is on the antitrust fine on Italian biofuel distribution. If you could elaborate on any potential impact this ruling may have on the profitability and competitive positioning of your fuel distribution business following the fine? Francesco Gattei: I will ask Pino to answer to the first, and then I will answer to the second one. Giuseppe Ricci: Thank you, Francesco. About Sannazzaro, Sannazzaro is a brownfield biorefinery because we will recover an existing hydrocracker unit very recently realized in Sannazzaro in 2010, very high pressure. And in this way, because of the high pressure and the good configuration, we will be able to maximize the flexibility to produce SAF. Production of SAF in Sannazzaro is an upside because there is the direct connection by pipe to the big Malpensa airport that is a big hub for the Central Europe. And about the feedstock, the flexibility of feedstock will be the same of Livorno or the other refineries, a mix of western residue and vegetable oil coming from not in competition food areas, including our agri business. The logistics system will provide different channels of supply of feedstock and distribution of products in order to maintain the flexibility. The unit is expected to be completed by 2028 in order to be in production at the end of this year. Francesco Gattei: About the fine that was proposed decided by the AGCM on biofuels. First of all, what we can say that clearly, we appeal against this decision that we judge as substantially incorrect. The biocomponent is aligned in terms of pricing because as you have already -- you know very well and from the fact that there is a very limited number of feedstock and a very, let's say, small market. This is substantially aligning the cost of this element to the different operators. So everything is happening in a very transparent way and the cost of obligation for all the players in the market are substantially similar. Secondly, the change of information that was considered in breaching of the competitive rule was, in fact, a legitimate change between the party on fuel supply agreement that requires this quarterly communication. In terms of competition, clearly, this is nothing to do with competition. As we said before, this is an element that is a key issues for the market, the growing market in terms of capacity is the capacity of the feedstock, the key element of risk. We are working on the capability to develop our own agri hub, and this component is a mechanism to derisk in terms of both quantity and value, the contribution of our own internal production. So we think this is something that we are trying to defend through building an integrated chain also on this side. Unknown Executive: Thanks very much for that question, Massimo. We're going to move now to Nash at Barclays. Nash, are you there? Naisheng Cui: Two questions from me, if that's okay. The first one is around technology. I was very impressed at your Technology Day in Milan earlier this year. I just wonder if you can talk about your progress over there, your deployment of technology, AI and how does that add momentum for your operation and the financial performance into next year and beyond? Then my next question is on working capital movement. Given some of the volatilities we have seen, I wonder if you can give us a bit of color on working capital in Q4 and Q1, please? Francesco Gattei: I leave to Lorenzo Fiorillo, Head of our R&D Technology Group business to answer about the artificial intelligence, and I will come back for the working capital. Lorenzo Fiorillo: Thank you, for the question. What I can say that we use AI since a while, it's not just in the last years. Internally, we are more than 200 use cases we are developing. We found a lot of advantages in using AI application within the company in optimization, find solution and helping us in creating better scenario. The use of a big number of data and important technology and technical expertise as well as digital competencies internally and with high-performance computing, for sure, is a fantastic habitat for us to develop this kind of tool, which is very helpful for us. The progress for us is to continue on agentic model for AI, and this is the way we are going to develop in the next years. Francesco Gattei: About the last quarter, the next quarter, we do expect substantially a very limited drawdown in terms of working capital. This quarter was substantially aligned and neutral. Overall, in the full year, we have a positive working capital in the range of EUR 2 billion. On next year, clearly, we have to assess all the working capital activity based on the new plan that requires also a definition of the scenario first and clearly, all the activity that we are performing in the different businesses. Unknown Executive: Thanks, Nash. We're going to go to the last 3 questions now. So the first one of those is Bertrand Hodee. Bertrand, are you there? Bertrand Hodee: Yes. I have 2 very short questions left. The first one is on Coral North. So you just took FID in September. But when looking at the annual report 2024, in fact, you already booked 329 million barrels of equivalent of proved reserve. Even if your share has risen from 25% to 50% in the project, as Exxon pulled out, looks to me that you've already booked the full reserve of Coral North in '24. And the second question is, so EUR 1.8 billion of buyback for fiscal year '25, EUR 0.8 billion been already bought back. And so there's EUR 1 billion left. How should we split those EUR 1 billion between the remainder of the year '25 and '26, please? Francesco Gattei: I leave the answer to Coral North to Guido. Guido Brusco: Yes, of course, yes, you are right. We booked last year. This year is the JV FID. We took the joint venture FID. And in terms of share, as you rightly pointed out, it is a bit disproportionate compared to our share of the project, which is 25% because we've reached a swap agreement with one of our partner between the onshore and the offshore molecules. Francesco Gattei: About the buyback, we generally do not provide guidance in terms of, let's say, weekly or next or planning plan of buying because clearly, this is a sensitive matter. Clearly, we publish every week what is the amount that we have bought, and you have seen, I would say, some steps or the pace of this buyback activity. As you correctly said, there is still EUR 1 billion to be bought in front of us. We have 3 months of 2025 and then 4 months in 2026. I think that there are different combinations, but will not change too much. Unknown Executive: Thanks, Bertrand. We're going to move to Chris Kuplent at Bank of America. Chris? Christopher Kuplent: I've got one question remaining, Francesco, and it's quite a high-level one. I remember you often arguing why go over and beyond on a CFFO payout promise when you have so many great opportunities to invest. And I just wanted to double check where you are on that theme, in particular, because if I add up the dividend, the new buyback, I end up in sort of plus 40% territory. Is that -- are you signaling something into the coming years that you are now more comfortable being in that 40% plus range than you were previously? Francesco Gattei: First of all, the percentage that you're referring to, the 41%, 40%, I think, is substantially the same number also because we have a quite positive expectation on the quarter that is coming. So I don't think this is an element of concern. On the other side, as you have seen, we are able to find solution opportunity or value inside the organization that you are able to raise on a quarterly basis. I refer in particular in this case as the cash initiative on the capability to execute the strategy on the production performance. So I think that generally, I see more upside. And therefore, I confirm that we are moving within the 35%, 40% range. I confirm that we continue to be selective in opportunity. I confirm that we have still a long list of opportunity that allow us to be extremely capable to select with the best one for the right time. And so I think that we are able to tick all the different boxes to reach our goals and confirming also an attractive distribution plan for our shareholder without modifying our view on what is the right amount of distribution that we should provide in order to ensure growth and capability to defend our balance sheet. Unknown Executive: Great. Thanks, Chris. We're going to move to the last question now. If anybody has more questions, we can deal with those directly afterwards, but I'm conscious we've moved over the hour. So the last question is Matt Lofting at JPMorgan. Matthew Lofting: Apologies for being late joining. I wanted to just come back on the strength of the cash flow generation by the company this year. I think you sort of stated this morning that the underlying improvement or upgrade versus the original plan at the beginning of the year is sort of close to EUR 1.5 billion. And it struck me that it was a higher proportion of the sort of the original plan start point. Could you sort of break down what some of the key wins have been from that perspective? And perhaps then secondly, also, if we take a step back and put it in the context of full year plan cash flow expectations, I'm interested in the extent to which you sort of see that underlying improvement is running ahead of your 4-year plan baseline or whether it's a case of sitting within the 4-year plan, but having accelerated the delivery of that cash? Francesco Gattei: Sorry, but I should ask you to make the second question again because the line was extremely noisy. So if you can repeat the second question, please? Matthew Lofting: Yes. Francesco. I was just interested if you could share any thoughts on the extent to which that EUR 1.3 billion underlying improvement represents an upside or an incremental delivery of cash flow compared to your 4-year plan baseline or whether it's the case that you're delivering cash flow faster within that 4-year plan? Francesco Gattei: Okay. Thank you. Now I can tell you sure that about the performance, the improvement of the underlying that clearly take into account of the scenario impact of this EUR 1.3 billion, we have practically EUR 500 million that are related to the Upstream. Clearly, upstream is a result of the improvement in terms of production that you are referring to, capability substantially to have a different mix that is generating more value. And clearly, in this plan, there is also some benefit from the different tax regime in the different new production contribution that are coming up. There is GGP. GGP, we have revised the guidance during the year, and this clearly is transferring value from the EBIT also to the cash generation. We are here in the range of EUR 300 million. On Enilive, there is again EUR 300 million. This EUR 300 million of Enilive is split between improvement in terms of marketing and from biofuel is related to the capability to have a good performance from our biorefineries. There is also a small improvement in terms of Versalis because clearly, unfortunately, on Versalis, we are seeing the negative side, but this is because it's a scenario that is classically hiding the contribution that Versalis is gaining from the shutdown and from the anticipated shutdown. So overall, these are the key elements that are showing improvement. Clearly, what we can say about next year is early to say. I would say that production enhancement upgrading of E&P is continuing. GGP performance is subject to the volatility, but also to the capability to have a larger optionality in the different contracts in the different assets. So this is another element that should help to capture upside also next year. On Enilive, clearly, we are expecting to have a continuous improvement in particularly a better scenario that we would like also to capture through the budget. And we do expect clearly on Versalis a more visible evidence of the recovery that is related to the new configuration of assets. So I think these are the elements. Unknown Executive: Thanks very much. That's -- and thank you, Francesco. That's bringing to an end the conference call. I'm conscious we have run a bit late, but I wanted to include as many people as possible. Those people who weren't able to ask a question, please do get in contact with the team here, and we'll be delighted to help. That's it. Have a great weekend, and thanks for joining us. Francesco Gattei: Thank you.