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Rising Japanese rates are pressuring the yen carry trade, with 5-year JGB yields at multi-decade highs but real rates still negative. To achieve positive real rates, 5-year Japanese yields must exceed 2.5%, implying further nominal rate increases are likely.
Generative AI has driven outsized tech stock gains, but this has also exposed the S&P 500 Index to concentration risk. Electricity demand from AI data centers is fueling a bullish outlook for uranium, copper, and natural gas, with commodity producers offering more attractive valuations than tech.
I anticipate the S&P 500 index to finish at 7,550 in 2026, delivering a gain of close to 9% from the current level of 6,930. The main assumptions behind my stance are the 14.4% EPS growth rate and a P/E of 24x.
Recent deals boosted optimism for the new year, but firms are still sitting on a glut of portfolio companies.
I expect inflation to remain structurally higher for longer, driven by policy shifts and persistent macro headwinds. My portfolio is heavily tilted toward energy, cyclical value, and hard asset companies with strong pricing power as inflation protection.
Financial markets are ending 2025 pricing Goldilocks for 2026, based on the noisy Fed projections. Volatility is likely to increase in January as the reality sets in, given the bursting AI bubble and the SCOTUS decision on Trump tariffs.
Artificial intelligence (AI) stocks have fueled much of the market's gains over the last couple of years. But Baird Tech Strategist Ted Mortonson is warning that a "tremendous amount of volatility" could be coming to the AI trade next year.
Those who owned U.S. stocks at the start of the year made good money. Owning foreign stocks was even better.
Restaurants that can balance affordability, streamline operations, and create brand appeal are more likely to stand out in 2026.
Investors are highlighting the growing influence and spending power of the over-50s. So-called "Silver Spenders" are taking greater control over their wealth and assets, seeking out advice on tax, investments and financial planning.
S&P 500 achieved two new highs last week, extending the bull run to a potential seven-month streak and an 87.5% gain since October 2022. Non-U.S. markets outperformed U.S. equities, with investors rotating from small caps and domestic stocks into large caps and foreign equities.
A significant weakening of the dollar versus China's currency didn't happen in 2025, but some forecasters say it's a wild card to watch in the new year.
I hope you all had a wonderful holiday! I have been busy finishing my Outlook for 2026.
The S&P 500 (SPY, IVV) is highly exposed to an AI-driven correction, with heavily indexed tech valuations at risk if the AI boom falters. Current AI demand curves are highly uncertain, and supply-side risks — like datacenter overbuild and rapid hardware innovation — could make for poor ROIs on huge amounts of capital.
Robots that mimic humans are set to create a $5 trillion market. But it will take years and a lot of improvements to get there.
Key Takeaways While only two official dissenters opposed the December rate cut, dot-plot projections reveal that six Fed members, including four “silent dissenters,” were against easing, signaling deeper division within the Fed than headlines suggest.
I assign a 'buy' rating to the S&P 500 for 2026, targeting ~10% growth to 7,700, despite macroeconomic concerns. The greatest threat to the bull market is a collapse in Global Aggregate Consumer Consumption, driven by automation, AI, and labor market stagnation.
MarketWatch asked the leading LLMs for their top stock picks — but the answers suggest AI may be following the herd instead of truly reasoning.
US stocks are inching higher on December 24 after the nation's GDP growth came in at 4.3% for the third quarter, well above expectations of 3.2% only. The report was delayed due to the extended government shutdown – but the stronger-than-expected data, nonetheless, has reignited debate over the Fed's next move.
Until the IRS says otherwise, sports betting on Kalshi and Polymarket may have a tax advantage over traditional sportsbooks.